So, if Northern Ireland will get exactly the same rules as the rest of the UK, can we have same sex marriage & abortion please?
The endless 'points scoring' on here has replaced any possibility of grown-up discussion.
There may be some intelligent focussed people working away behind the scenes and making progress; on the other hand that may be an illusion.
I'm off to stick pins into the Iain Drunken Smith voodoo doll.
The one that is currently being negotiated
As said many hundreds of pages ago - one that lies between two of the existing off the shelf options.
A friend just posted this on Facebook.
[i]'MPs are debating universal credit at the moment. As the Press Association reports, the Conservative MP Heidi Allen was left in tears after hearing the “destitution” faced by people as a result of government welfare reforms. Allen struggled to speak following a speech by the Labour MP Frank Field, in which he described persuading a man not to commit suicide and how an organisation separately helped a child “crying through hunger”. Field, chairman of the Commons work and pensions committee, said the father of the child also said he had had a “lucky week” after neighbours invited him to a funeral “so they could finish off the food” once the other guests had been fed.
Rising to speak after Field, Allen said:
I don’t know where to start after that. I’m humbled by the words from my honourable, good friend from Birkenhead. No government is perfect, no benefits system is perfect, no debate, no motion is perfect, but by God we work together and make this better.
Intervening to give Allen a chance to compose herself, Field said:
I’m just amazed for the first time I’ve been able to report those events publicly without weeping. I’m so affected by them, I’m affected as she is. That’s the debate we’re really having - how do we represent here the desperateness of many of our constituents when many of us feel we can’t offer them hope.'[/i]
We send £350m to [the EU | pay for Brexit]* - why not feed our ****ing children instead?
* delete where applicable
dont get me wrong THM, i am delighted the UK is a lot closer to staying in the EU as it was a few months ago .
Cougar - Moderator
Cougar You will be relieved to know that a more sensible and accurate presentation of events is widely availableOh, good. What other possible outcome have I missed? (Genuine question, what's option 4?)
I'll bet you cougar you don't get one. You might get a link to pie in the sky tory wishlists but thats about it.
Well that’s a relief for you
So the options are
1 stay in the EU
2 Hard Brexit leaving with no deal and moving to WTO status
3 Soft Brexit (this could be a Swiss model, a Norwegian model, or some other undefined bespoke deal somewhere in between)
In other words, exactly what has been said from day 1
Should have put 3 options on the ballot paper
Cougs. Not a bad reference piece to help you
I don't believe we qualify for WTO status. We need to accept... I can't remember exactly now, sorry, I'm very tired. Single Market / Customs Union I think. And to get that we need to accept the other three.
It absolutely isn’t Chris. We are closer to a WTO exit than it was. The die is cast, we won’t be remaining in the EU under any circumstances.
As far as May is concerned agreeing a 2 year transition / implementation period is the most pragmatic way to solve the money argument. You can see ner logic in delaying A50 then adding 2 years to get to the end of the current “framework” period = job done.
As for “damage to the UK” have a listen to this, 0.25% pa to GDP under the WTO deal option even assuming we make no new deal / benefit from a more global focus. Had that been the projection HMT / Osbourne shared the resukt would have been an even bigger win for Leave.
Cougs. Not a bad reference piece to help you
I don't want an 87 page document which is nearly a year old. I'd like you to answer the question in your own words, summarise what you're trying to say about where we are right now and what our options are. A couple of sentences will suffice. What's option 4, what have I missed? Not being an arse, serious question.
I'll bet you cougar you don't get one. You might get a link to pie in the sky tory wishlists but thats about it.
How very prescient.
Should have put 3 options on the ballot paper
Ah but we wouldn't have got a simple majority that way. I use the word simple advisedly.
You already have it. If you can’t be bothered to read the context that’s you loss. It would have been prescient of me to realise you were simply being what you deny, not looking to genuinely understand.
I will leave you in the incapable hands of the IB. Enjoy the wallow.
As for “damage to the UK” have a listen to this, 0.25% pa to GDP under the WTO deal option even assuming we make no new deal / benefit from a more global focus. Had that been the projection HMT / Osbourne shared the resukt would have been an even bigger win for Leave.
Wishful thinking - nothing more, nothing less. No subsrancet in that film, just one mans optimism. Hardly proof of anything.......
I wish, for a change, a Brexiteer could come up with some actual facts. But, sigh, here we are 18 months & still FA all progress.
If I could leave this rather unhappy & divided little island I would.
I don't believe we qualify for WTO status.
?????
@mrlebowski he was quoting The World Bank
Those who voted leave are optimistic about the future outside the EU. Thats why we voted out. It helps to explain the resiliance of the UK economy, 52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.
[url= https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4 ]WTO & Brexit - The Econimist[/url]
"The WTO will even shape the Brexit negotiations themselves. The government is desperate to ensure that Britain’s big exporters do not suffer from Brexit. It has explicitly assured Nissan, a carmaker, that it will not suffer. But WTO rules can make such sectoral deals hard. If Britain were to agree bilaterally with the EU not to apply tariffs on cars, the WTO’s “most-favoured nation” principle might force it to offer tariff-free access to other countries as well. Channelling government money to boost exports is also something of which the WTO would disapprove. The WTO option may seem like an easy way out for post-Brexit Britain, but that road is in reality covered with bumps. "
WTO easy? Sounds far, far, har harder.....than "Oh, we'll just switch over....."
Lies, obfuscation & double talk all over again....
Sigh..
Edit: Source Jamba - helps to be able to check these things you know..
You already have it. If you can’t be bothered to read the context that’s you loss.
Well, no, I don't, so I've clearly missed something somewhere. Pretend I'm stupid. What's option 4, what have I missed? spell it out for me.
52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result
Hmmm. The facts are against you there Jamba. Sorry and all.
Unless you mean 52% of Brexies are delighted and 48% of Brexies are putting up with it. Not sure about those figures but they’re probably about right.
Few of the most excitable Brexiit fans seem to understand what the WTO does, or how it operates, or the power plays already under way to squeeze us by the big nonEU countries and blocks. Only the EU is backing our proposals as regards a separate status with WTO.
It helps to explain the resiliance of the UK economy, 52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.
Recent surveys show that the 52% are not all delighted, in fact many of the representatives of the 52% in parliament keep banging on about how crap it all it, then there is Nige no payments but I want my pension - the caricature of brexit itself.
The WTO option terrifies most sensible people and business leaders. It sends the UK off to be comparable with NK and Syria in terms of trade.
Again the options are
Stay the same (probably without a rebate)
Something between above and below - The Bespoke Deal Option
Full Hard Brexit to isolationism
Anyone who claims to know more than that is lying to themselves first and foremost.
Currency devaluation already exceeds impact of WTO tariffs on car exports. Interestingly Dyson debunked the FT piece about multiple charging as components are imported and finished car exported. He said thats not how it worked and he should know as a manufacturer.
We export £10bn in cars and import £40bn from the EU. Its a no brainer for them to agree and if they don’t they are the losers.
jambalaya - Member52% of us are delighted
Best Jambalaya statement since that time he thought northern ireland was an island.
Jamba doesn't understand what the WTO does, or how it operates
Is this of help? From the leaveHQ.com "Leave Alliance" no less (whoever they are).
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
Jamba - their economy is rather more than 4 times the size of ours so it’s a bigger hit to us.
But you know this.
“The German Car Industry Will Save Us.”
😆
You guys seem obsessed with the nutters. Why not focus on the smart guys who are actually negotiating, especially behind the scenes?
You can hardly blame us. How exactly are we supposed to focus on the behind the scenes people that we don't know anything about?
As for “damage to the UK” have a listen to this, 0.25% pa to GDP under the WTO deal option..,
If the future is so rosey why were the government so cagey about releasing those impact reports even after they were repeatedly ordered to do so? And even then redacting them heavily. If they were full of good news then why were they so concerned about fellow MPs seeing them?
If the future is so rosey why were the government so cagey about releasing those impact reports even after they were repeatedly ordered to do so? And even then redacting them heavily. If they were full of good news then why were they so concerned about fellow MPs seeing them?
+1.
Can a Brexiteer explain this please???
I shan't hold my breath..
You can hardly blame us. How exactly are we supposed to focus on the behind the scenes people that we don't know anything about?
THM reguarly peaks behind the curtain, so he knows whats really going on
honestly theyre like really clever grown up geniuses
[img] 
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Kelvin I understand very well how WTO works. It’s setup to make things easy and it works very well as can be seen by the volume / proportion of trade carried out on that basis. What is more we can unilaterally lower tariffs if we wish, there are many which aren’t worth the bother and cost of collecting. Which brings me neatly to the following
Did you know that despite Switzerland having a free trade agreement with the EU companies chose to use WTO for 50% of qualifying trade as paying the low tariff is cheaper than complying with EU documentation requirements. The average EU WTO Common External Tariff is 1.5%
THM reguarly peaks behind the curtain, so he knows whats really going on
It would be reassuring to have such an expert insider aside from the fact they have shown themselves repeatedly unable to understand mere mortals comments on this thread.
Those who voted leave are optimistic about the future outside the EU.
Really? Every single one? Since I would be willing to bet a handful will have changed their minds (either way).
Your announcement therefore seems a tad too optimistic.
One EU ambassador told the Guardian the failure to reach a deal on Northern Ireland was a microcosm of a wider problem. “At root the problem is that [May] seems incapable of making a decision and is afraid of her own shadow,” the source said.“We cannot go on like this, with no idea what the UK wants. She just has to have the conversation with her own cabinet, and if that upsets someone, or someone resigns, so be it. She has to say what kind of trading relationship she is seeking. We cannot do it for her, and she cannot defer forever.”
Kelvin I understand very well how WTO works.
Oh, cool. I don't really beyond what I've picked up from the Internet, if I'm honest. Could you explain it to me?
She has to say what kind of trading relationship she is seeking.
Eureka! An EU official finally recognising what comes first or at least should do. Little steps
The average EU WTO Common External Tariff is 1.5%
Tell that to a farmer.
Hang on… you've argued before that the EU is overly protectionist as regards its TRQs… now you're arguing third counties face really low tariffs when selling into the EU? Cake and eat it?
What is more we can unilaterally lower tariffs if we wish, there are many which aren’t worth the bother and cost of collecting. Which brings me neatly to the following
But you are using these tariffs to pay for stuff, if they are so low what are you going to raise?
The average
Is a really really stupid and pointless statistical number that in no way shows the real impact of anything. If I buy 1bn worth of goods with a tariff of 15% and 1 quid of goods with a tariff of 0.001% the bill is very different to 1.5% 1bn and 1 quid.
you see with a little handy misquoting this now becomes a joke about chickens and eggs. Why do you insist in picking out the only line that agrees with you and missing the bit that gives you the context to what was said?Eureka! [s]An EU official[/s] finally recognising what comes first [s]or at least should do. Little steps[/s]
Eureka! An EU official finally recognising what comes first or at least should do. Little steps
Did you miss my question, THM? Read up.
you see with a little handy misquoting this now becomes a joke about chickens and eggs. Why do you insist in picking out the only line that agrees with you and missing the bit that gives you the context to what was said?
Are you new here?
52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.
What is it we're making the best of? Sorry to bring up Welsh steel fears/NHS nurse shortages/Grimsby fishing exemption plea, etc.
lol TJ - sometimes it's worth pointing it out, personally I'd be embarrassed if it was me but he could be having a little celebration at his trolling ability (which is also fairly bad)
What is it we're making the best of? Sorry to bring up Welsh steel fears/NHS nurse shortages/Grimsby fishing exemption plea, etc.
Harking back to WW1 really, those most isolated from the impacts make judgements that will have some very serious consequences for others.
Welsh steel... Grimsby fishing
Both of which positively flourished during our time in the EEC/EC/EU
