[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

junkyard
Tried by I can note work it out.
Someone on radio 4 saying that we are under risk due to criminals listing 50- though many eem to be in prison at the moment.

I was wondering how many of our British born "hardened criminal" are living elsewhere in the EU - certainly we send a fair few to the "costa del Crime". I am sure jamby will be along soon to complain about project fear

^This

There are 13,000 foreign criminals in the UK. I don't think that figure is particularly high. Some media outlets convey the impression that the UK is swamped with thousands of Eastern European rapists and murderers.

A great portion of that number will be from outwith the EU. The country with the highest number of convicted criminals in the UK is Poland with a mighty 950 followed closely by Irelandski with an eye watering 750 and Romania with 650. Other notable European nationals that make the top ten list of UK based criminals I think include people from ****stan, Jamiaca and India.

The numbers don't look so large, and as JY says I am sure there a British nationals due to be returned to the UK from across the EU, however we all know that a British criminal is a good egg called Jack, bedecked with monocle, top hat, curly moustache and superior cunning, over the skinheaded knuckle dragging heathen rapists from Eastern Europe 😉

THM. I think Brexit need an official paper to tell us how good the brave new world outside the EU will be. Perhaps titled BOD2, and of course it has to be white.

Sick of lying billshitting half truth politicians

Does the remain (scared to see a better future) think where we are right now is as good as it gets?

No it could be better than now but it will be worse if we leave however optimistic you want to be about the future.

Some people on here seem to think a vote out will mean it's carte blanche to get rid of the NHS. Gawd knows how some people's fantasy minds think and get to that.

Perhaps titled BOD2, and of course it has to be white

😀

Few dreams this time, apart from some wet ones of a faded past. How about B o BS? Pages of that.

Does the remain (scared to see a better future) think where we are right now is as good as it gets?

As with most things perspective is valuable...
where I live
I have to pay to see a GP
State funding for things is on the down
The nice "Funded by the EU" doesn't occur in deprived areas
My residence status does get me free movement to NZ

Life in the UK is very good, the EU has enriched that and will continue to do so. The UK's major problem has always been a lack of commitment and a fear of the EU. It needs balls to get stuck in and make the place better. Hanging round on the outside doesn't cut it.

Saw the debate last night, a lot of missed opportunities to push points by the host saying "Move on to the next question".

In my mind the Brexit camp haven't explained how we'll trade with Europe without paying the tariffs.

I love this thread, the nuanced arguments are all excellent, and mostly worth a read. But that graphic up there is instructive. I meet a lot of the public in my role, and the referendum comes up occasionally in conversation, most folk I meet are voting out, because: foreigners. Get rid of them and everything will magically be OK...

Its depressing

In my mind the Brexit camp haven't explained how we'll trade with Europe without paying the tariffs.

I am staggered by the level of 'Vote In' support on this forum. At 44 I must be one of those old crusty biggots I keep hearing mentioned. I like to counter that claim by stating that I don't have my head stuck in the sand and want to stick with a status quo that has failed.

The EU is heading for complete fiscal and political union across all member states. That scares the sh!t out of me and it should ring alarm bells for everyone. If we leave now then in all hope other member states will also pull out and the EU can hopefully return to a pre Maastricht style union. If we don't leave now and Europe does eventually become a super state the UK will find it very difficult to remain on the periphery.

I also worry what effect an EU super state with it's possible EU army will do to relations with Russia.

I also worry what effect an EU super state with it's possible EU army will do to relations with Russia.

why don't you do some reading and find out how likely those things actually are to happen? Rather than worry about them.

[url= https://fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/ ]Full Facts website [/url]

The EU is heading for complete fiscal and political union across all member states. That scares the sh!t out of me and it should ring alarm bells for everyone. If we leave now then in all hope other member states will also pull out and the EU can hopefully return to a pre Maastricht style union. If we don't leave now and Europe does eventually become a super state the UK will find it very difficult to remain on the periphery.

I also worry what effect an EU super state with it's possible EU army will do to relations with Russia.

Why is political Union a bad thing?

And by EU army how would that differ to say this lot?
http://www.nato.int/

flanagaj - Member

The EU is heading for complete fiscal and political union across all member states. That scares the sh!t out of me and it should ring alarm bells for everyone.

Why?

I also worry what effect an EU super state with it's possible EU army will do to relations with Russia.

This has already been debunked as cobblers, mainly for the reason that member states struggle to agree on contributions to support NATO, so a closer military union seems a very long way off; not to mention the issues of sovereignty and basis of authority for the "EU Army".

I am staggered by the level of 'Vote In' support on this forum.

Why? It's the sensible choice and we are sensible people (in the main) 😉 but granted its out of synch with national patters.

a status quo that has failed.

On what grounds? The two key aspects of a free trade zone are to (1) increase trade and (2) stimulate investment. The status quo has been successful on both counts.

The EU is heading for complete fiscal and political union across all member states. That scares the sh!t out of me and it should ring alarm bells for everyone.

On the contrary, it shows that finally understand how currency unions work. It scares the shit our of me that they didn't do this from the start. But that's a separate debate as we are specifically excluded from the € and greater political union.

If we leave now then in all hope other member states will also pull out and the EU can hopefully return to a pre Maastricht style union.

Who knows? But in the meantime the status quo comes closest ie, max benefits in terms of trade and investment while minimising weaknesses associate primarily with the €. As I said before, in an imperfect world that is a very string result and it is madness the jeopardise it.

If we don't leave now and Europe does eventually become a super state the UK will find it very difficult to remain on the periphery.

Very unlikely. The EU in 5 years time will be very different from the current version. It is abundantly clear that the € cannot work and so a new structure will have to be devised. That is why this current referendum is a folly if only for the clearly stupid timing. We don't know what we are voting for.

If we don't leave now and Europe does eventually become a super state the UK will find it very difficult to remain on the periphery.

Very unlikely. The EU in 5 years time will be very different from the current version. It is abundantly clear that the € cannot work and so a new structure will have to be devised. That is why this current referendum is a folly if only for the clearly stupid timing. We don't know what we are voting for.

Neither of us have a crystal ball, but I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time?

[i]Neither of us have a crystal ball, but I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time? [/i]

It'll be better/worse/same, pick one.

but I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time?

You know while we are on the subject of questions

Neither of us have a crystal ball, but I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time?

Well, like predicting the weather, the best guess is that it will be exactly the same as it is now.

How things will look if we leave is altogether a more difficult question to answer.

Flanagaj's posts above are typical of how this whole debate has been conducted i.e. loads of opinions, but no facts and strategies.

The one fact that is clear is that the Brexit campaign has failed to provide an exit strategy and their whole campaign is based on "nice-to-haves", "what-ifs" and nationalistic rhetoric ("let's make Britain great again" etc etc), potentially resulting in a damaged economy for many years.

In my view, it is not the remain side that has to make the case in this referendum as our economy is doing pretty well as it is, despite the alleged "shackles" of Europe. Ultimately, it is Brexit that has to make the case that Britain [b]will[/b] be better off outside the EU and they have failed miserably to do that.

flanagaj - Member

I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time?

(among other things)

we'll still have paid holiday, sick pay, maternity/paternity leave, and the right not to work more than 48 hours per week. TTIP will be hollow and toothless (if it exists at all). Some steps will have been taken to clean up the air in our cities. Our scientific research will have benefited hugely from joint european projects and funding. Deprived areas of the UK will have recieved large amounts of EU development funding.

vs.

worker rights are going to be re-written by the ****ing tories. TTIP will be coming in hard and dry. Steps will have been taken to relax air and water pollution limits, Science/RnD funding will be slashed. Deprived areas of the UK will have been ignored for 5 years. Scotland will have another referendum, and vote to leave the UK.

Scotland will have another referendum, and vote to leave the UK.

I do wish people would stop repeating this utter nonsense

Scotland can only leave the UK if it's voted for in Westminster, it's that simple, the issue is quite clearly reserved to Westminster in [url= http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/schedule/5 ]schedule 5 of the Scotland Act[/url]

To suggest otherwise just puts you in the same camp as the utter bull****ers in the extremes of either remain (world war three) or leave (streets paved with gold and an unlimited NHS)

bit harsh.

If The UK votes to leave The EU, i reckon Scotland will have a fair claim for another referendum. They've had one, the mechanism exists to have another.

i was asked for my opinion, that's all i offered.

They won't, because, once again, the UK's membership of the EU is, and always has been a matter that is reserved for Westminster under the Scotland Act - it's never had anything to do with Scotland or the Scottish Parliament

You might as well say that they deserve a new referendum every time there is a general election, it's just nonsense.

The nationalists lost, get over it, just like the 'kippers will have to get over it and move on if they lose later this month. They're not going to get another EU referendum next year just because they keep whinging about it.

Flanagaj's posts above are typical of how this whole debate has been conducted i.e. loads of opinions, but no facts and strategies.

I would also add that the remain camp too have been very guilty of pedalling rubbish stats during the campaign.

I like the idea of an EU army, provided every state has a veto on action.

ninfan - Member

Scotland can only leave the UK if it's voted for in Westminster, it's that simple, the issue is quite clearly reserved to Westminster in schedule 5 of the Scotland Act

And what do we call it when you refuse the democratic will of the people? Prime Minister Osborne Or Johnson will be a raging **** but he's not likely to be an actual dictator.

flanagaj - Member

Personally I reckon the EU will eventually become a super state, doubt it'll happen in our lifetimes though. Slow process these things.

A Europe wide FBI is desperately needed imho
Organised Crime, People Smuggling, Narcotics, Terrorism etc need a proper crossborder police

And what do we call it when you refuse the democratic will of the people?

The Flying Ox - Member
Nobody is refusing the democratic will of anyone

You would be, if another ref is campaigned on and voted for, but denied.

My biggest problem with the EU is it seems to be largely rather undemocratic & unaccountable IMHO.

I'm happy for someone to point out why I'm wrong..

The other arguments go round & round with pros/cons on both sides.

The EU in it's original concept was fine but I fear it's become too bureaucratic & unwieldy with too many conflicting interests for it to function.

Is it a case of "You can only please some of the people, some of the time...."?

It certainly appears that way to me.

mrlebowski - Member

My biggest problem with the EU is it seems to be largely rather undemocratic & unaccountable IMHO.

I'm happy for someone to point out why I'm wrong..

1) we get to vote for MEP's
2) the system is proportional, so it's MORE democratic than the UK's FPTP system.

UKIP got 13% of the vote in the 2015 GE, that *should* get them approx 82 MP's, how many seats did they win? one.

The Green party got 3.8% of the vote. giving them one MP when it should be more like 25.

and we're criticising the EU for being un-democratic???

You would be, if another ref is campaigned on and voted for, but denied.

Are you suggesting a situation where a party with referenda in their election manifesto who are subsequently refused any referenda? What would be the difference between that and, for example, a party with "abolition of student debt" in their election manifesto quietly dropping that pledge once in power?

Thing is, its beyond even that - its offering something that they have neither the means nor legal powers to deliver

you might as well try and get elected on a manifesto guaranteeing "greater democracy and accountability within the EU"...

1) we get to vote for MEP's
2) the system is proportional, so it's MORE democratic than the UK's FPTP system

That might be the case, but rightly or wrongly there is obviously a general sentiment that the EU election was rather pointless. The turnout results were poor and they have been dwindling every election.

"The 2014 turnout figure of 43.09 per cent, based on exit polls, has now been revised down half a percentage point - putting it lower than the 43 per cent turnout in 2009. "

ninfan - Member

its [s]offering[/s] demanding something that they have neither the means nor legal powers to deliver

FTFY

I do like that someone can complain about a lack of democracy in the EU, while simultaneously telling us they think Scots should and would be denied the right to self-determination. It's a skill.

Thing is, its beyond even that - its offering something that they have neither the means nor legal powers to deliver

Bit like a "7 day NHS". then 😉

I do like that someone can complain about a lack of democracy in the EU, while simultaneously telling us they think Scots should and would be denied the right to self-determination. It's a skill.

Scots have a right to self determination

as part of the UK

this months referendum is proof of that

The 2014 turnout figure of 43.09 per cent, based on exit polls, has now been revised down half a percentage point - putting it lower than the 43 per cent turnout in 2009. "

I'd like to think that we might become more engaged with the EU elections after all this should we remain. We'd want to stop voting in self serving ego maniacs like Farige and co who have the worst attendance record at the eu parliament. Farige is particularly hypocritical; botheted to attended 1 of the 43 meetings of fisheries commitee he was on, yet still claims to care about the UK fishing industry.

The Flying Ox - Member
You would be, if another ref is campaigned on and voted for, but denied.

And how does that happen? Are you suggesting a situation where a party with referenda in their election manifesto who are subsequently refused any referenda? What would be the difference between that and, for example, a party with "abolition of student debt" in their election manifesto quietly dropping that pledge once in power?

what?

and we're criticising the EU for being un-democratic???

Yes, what's wrong with that?

Just because something (EU) is better than what you have (UK) doesn't mean you can't criticise the former!

Thank you for pointing out the difference between the UK & the EU.

Interestingly FPTP did prevent UKIP from actually being a party with any power - not such a bad thing..

Like it or not there is a feeling that the EU is too unwieldy, faceless & trying to harmonise with a wide variation of often conflicting interests..

Neither of us have a crystal ball, but I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time?

Done this several times, but here's a summary

As now (Euro Area, European Union, European Economic Area, European Free Trade Association and Customs Union) there will be several different forms of membership. It will look quite different from today - largely because the Euro Zone will have failed. But in crude summary, we will have

1. A core: stronger economies; integrated economies, common currency, greater monetary, fiscal, and political union (although not absolute by any means)
2. A periphery: weaker economies, own currencies re-introduced, greater economic flexibility, strong political links to 1
3. The sensible team: stronger economics, access to free trade and investment, exempt from further political union, control over borders, full sovereignty (to the extent that this ever exists) over three principle areas of economic policy - monetary, fiscal, supply-side. The winners.

We will be in 3 and in a relatively strong position to navigate the turbulence that will be involved in the transition. Unless of course we truly "out ourselves" as a nation of xenophobes, isolationists and liers...

HTH

ninfan no one really knows what will happen and stating it a it is dangerous

If the Scottish parliament has a referendum and they vote to stay in the EU/ leave the rUK then its hard to see how the UK will just ignore this and make them stay.
Its also pretty clear the EU would love to have the rUK surrounded by the EU so they would almost certainly help out Scotland.

It would be interesting times and simply stating this is what the law stays and it will definitely happen is a degree of certainty few will share.
The UK cannot really just ignore the "will of the people" and its unlikely they will treat Scotland as they did Ireland to get it to remain "loyal".

Its hypothetical for sure but your view is both accurate of the current law and yet overly simplistic.

Neither of us have a crystal ball, but I am keen to hear how a pro remain supporter envisages the current state of play in 5 years time?

Done this several times, but here's a summary

As now (Euro Area, European Union, European Economic Area, European Free Trade Association and Customs Union) there will be several different forms of membership. It will look quite different from today - largely because the Euro Zone will have failed. But in crude summary, we will have

1. A core: stronger economies; integrated economies, common currency, greater monetary, fiscal, and political union (although not absolute by any means)
2. A periphery: weaker economies, own currencies re-introduced, greater economic flexibility, strong political links to 1
3. The sensible team: stronger economics, access to free trade and investment, exempt from further political union, control over borders, full sovereignty (to the extent that this ever exists) over three principle areas of economic policy - monetary, fiscal, supply-side. The winners.

We will be in 3 and in a relatively strong position to navigate the turbulence that will be involved in the transition.

HTH

Your response is very interesting. I always assumed (wrongly) that you were an advocate of total fiscal / political union across ALL member states and Britain joining said club.

Your vision is a plausible one, but I still feel the EU leaders are not addressing the issues and are not open to the type of plan you are proposing. The longer they leave the issues currently being faced by the struggling member states the greater the anti sentiment and risk of far right / anti eu parties emerging and causing the whole project to disintegrate in a mess.

On the contrary, I am strongly opposed to the Euro project and the requirements that go with it. I have been very consistent on this, largely because as an Economist I am aware of the criteria that are required if such a project is to be successful and that the EZ does not fulfil them. I have also drawn the contrast between the UK and Euro Zone - on the same terms - to explain why it WAS and IS in Scotland to remain part of the UK with its common currency. The UK does fulfil the criteria for an optimum currency area - which is one of the reasons why it has been so successful despite the Nats hysteria.

They are not. That is correct. It is a very imperfect world out there. But as I have also said before, in the long run the laws of economics > political hubris. It is merely a matter of time.

This is the fundamental problem with this referendum - we are debating about something that is not going to exist in its current form in the future. Its a stupid idea caused by the perceived threat of the UKIPers to the Tory party. Of course, this is also a major challenge for the INers, since the weaknesses are already known. In contrast, the weaknesses in fluffy candy floss are only apparent with the indigestion that comes too late....

As I said 3 months ago on this thread.

All a buggers muddle. But we should wait for the genuine questions:

1. Which countries are ready and able to from a monetary, fiscal and political union (and possibly share a common currency? [its not the current lot BTW]?

2. Of those, who wants to??

3. For the rest, how do you want to interact with the core, with each other and with the RoW?

IMO - there is a very small number that qualify for (1), even if we do, we don't want to (2), so it comes down to (3)

IMO, the status quo is a very good answer to 3. Most of the rest is pure noise.

Given the success the EU has made of border control, reacting the to migrant crises, the economy and the euro how anyone can think for one second that an Army would be a good idea is beyond me.

DrJ we clearly have a very different view of the successfulness of the EU as not even Corbyn thinks it shoudl arry on as it is. That Farage sketch is amusing and of course totally inaccurate, he's in favour of conrolled immigration which is fairer and less racist than the system we have.

I really don't think people have taken on board the state of EU economies and the fiasco of the euro, staggering government debt of weak members and the fact that a country of 11m people could well bring the whole thing down.

@kimbers short term currency movements are irrelevant, the Swiss franc has been far too strong for that governments liking because they are NOT in the EU/euro. They have negative interest rates as they are trying to stop the inflows. Its inconveivable to me that 2, 3 or 5 years from now the £ would be weaker than the euro in the event of Brexit. Its quite likley to be weaker than the $ as that country continues to look towards Asia for growth and away from stagnating Europe.