[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Some people feel the need to over simplify everyone else's identity, don't they. Integration does not require homogenous identities, embrace the diversity. We'll be back to "cricket tests" again very soon, I fear. Multiple allegiances and layered

Monetary union is not very good at embracing diversity. Slight problem there

This is basic stuff

A single currency does not require a single identity and rejection of all others. Nor does a union of countries, or a single country. Identity doesn't have to be singular and simplified.

Ask a Texan, who considers themselves half Irish American half Mexican, if the Dollar is likely to fail, or the USA break apart, because of their compound indenty.

More than that IGM. I have posted this here many times but there are certain criteria that must be satisfied for a common currency to work. Then and only then you also need to have full monetary, fiscal and political union for this to have a chance of succeeding.

The EZ fails on both counts which is why it failed st birth.

It's worth remembering that these "criteria" are at the end of the day just judgements.

It's not proven scientific fact we're talking about, just some rough inferences drawn from other past experiments, and heavily coloured by various kinds of prejudice.

You can't test it out in a lab.

but they were a bit vague and hand wavy so I decided to disregard them. I’m a bit like that.

Your decision, your loss. They are not vague at all but failing to understand them leads to thid misunderstanding posted by oldandpatsit above. Or red herrings such as this

.
A single currency does not require a single identity and rejection of all others. Nor does a union of countries, or a single country. Identity doesn't have to be singular and simplified.

But never mind.. you can lead a horse to water 😉

So, the euro has "failed", but the dollar, pound, ruble and rupee are (presumably) fine. (Maybe some of these have also failed too. If so, please clarify)

Can we have some clarity on what it means to "fail" please? What is the objective measure?

Directly contributing to an economic and social crisis - is that enough for starters?

Preventng economic and social crisis, THM.

This is one of the problems we had as remainers - the project in itself is flawed and that is obvious. We are watching this largely from the sidelines - interested observers - but were reliant on people seeing through that and focusing on the bespoke arrangement thst we ALREADY had.

We failed and lost ;/)

Ed the level of your compassion for the young and poor of the EZ is well documented

Preventing a crisis - are we now imagining that the € never happened ?!?

Greece was in a position in which a country would normally end up with a failed currency when it joined the EU. With all the misery that brings (see Germany early 20s). The Euro saved them from that.

Directly contributing to an economic and social crisis - is that enough for starters?

No, I want something that is more objective than "THM says so".

Or else, if there isn't anything more objective, I want you to admit that the "failure" of the euro is just in your head and not in the real world.

Just as an example, there were certainly those who argued strongly that Thatcherite monetary policy in the 80s contributed to an economic and social crisis in Scottish manufacturing (perhaps other parts of the UK, I wasn't there at the time). Incidentally, that was during a period where we had rather stronger political union than we do in the UK now.

I wish you knew where the smiley button was Ed. People might think that you are being serious there.

Captain - if you want to ignore the € crisis and pretend it's in my head, feel free

Here's what one of Scotlands favourite novel wining economic ally has to say

Designed to bring the European Union closer together, the euro has actually done the opposite: after nearly a decade without growth, unity has been replaced with dissent and enlargements with prospective exits. Joseph Stiglitz argues that Europe's stagnation and bleak outlook are a direct result of the fundamental flaws inherent in the euro project - economic integration outpacing political integration with a structure that promotes divergence rather than convergence. Money relentlessly leaves the weaker member states and goes to the strong, with debt accumulating in a few ill-favoured countries.

Probably only in his head too.

No, I certainly don't want to ignore it. I want you to define what you mean by it, and explain how you can distinguish it from any other crisis that we have observed.

The crisis needs no definition. It happened and can be objectively observed and measured

Ditto the design flaws in the € thst led directly to it. Stiglitz's book is not expensive

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Euro-its-Threat-Future-Europe/dp/0241258154

So, we have got to:

The Euro Zone is a failure, because
The Euro has failed, because
THM says so.

Good to have cleared that up.

Blimey you are a speed reader - it took me two days to read that book not three seconds

I bow to you better judgement and insight - can we still join the € or is I too late now? Sounds like a snorter...

He's given a ref. Bit much to expect him to post the entire text!

😀

THM - as I know you’re a charitable man help a poor engineer out. What in your words are those non-vague criteria?
I’m not being an arse about this, just interested.

PS - do you not sleep? I thought I posted on here to much.

The inability of the eurozone to match the recovery in the USA and UK has exposed its governing structures, institutions and policies as dysfunctional

That aged well

I have two long commutes - bit late today 😉

I have linked this for you before but for s start google optimum currency area theory and or Robert Mundell.

You will see that I am opening up a can of worms here because he has a theory - it has changed a bit since but anyway - and then he gets himself in a muddle with the Euro which is quite funny.

Hence I am exposing the fact that we have some subjectivity creeping in in the academic world !!!!

Life is never clear cut is it!!!

But it seems very clear-cut to you THM. Euro bad, everything else good. It smacks of a theory going in search of data. The euro is still being used daily by millions of people, and the eurozone economies seem to be doing pretty well overall compared to the UK right now. I'm well aware these things can change rapidly of course.

You repeatedly insist that the euro is a failure, I'm simply asking you what you mean by that term.

THM - it’s not my field (it’s not even my farm) to be considering currency areas, but I think when I looked up Mundell previously (I did honest - like I said it’s interesting) that which you are describing as a theory which then gets muddled is what I described as vague.
I think I could see where the issues are with the current implementation of the Euro, and I could see problematic arguments over a full three part union with the euro as currency, but a number of those apply to the dollar too - though not to the pound (pre-Scots independence anyway).
Now I recall you disagree on the dollar - but I can not recall why you disagree. Excepting of course the de facto argument that it seems to work, which as an engineer I have some sympathy with as we use that sort of argument all the time.
I’m doing a longish commute today so if you have the time for a poor seeker of enlightenment, or even this idiot, then I’d be interested in your personal views.

your compassion for the young and poor of the EZ is well documented

You repeatedly insist that the euro is a failure, I'm simply asking you what you mean by that term.

Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal had currency troubles long before the Euro. And high unemployment too.

You repeatedly insist that the euro is a failure, I'm simply asking you what you mean by that term.

(I think) Because a classic understanding of Economics will say that Monetary Union with Fiscal Union (central bank, single tax collecting body) over a huge area with disparate economies will fail.

How many countries using the Euro have no growth? Or even more pertinently, which have lower growth than those using Sterling?

And, I don't wish to send this off on a tangent, but THM, why do you do "it"? What is your problem? I'm sure you have a case to make, so make it without "the tone", and without the tactics that bore people into giving up on engaging with you.

Why do people post sh!t and expect a sensible response?

IGM will return later - things have moved on from '61. I suggested that simply as a starting point

You should see why the Maastricht criteria were introduced in order to address (badly) one of the conditions. But as above it was a sticking plaster

Commute later !!

and yours for those on zero hours contracts is also well documented.

3% of uk workforce v 50% youth unemployment - you decide which is more significant del

I think) Because a classic understanding of Economics will say that Monetary Union with Fiscal Union (central bank, single tax collecting body) over a huge area with disparate economies will fail.

- central bank essential for any currency
- can have multiple tax collecting bodies, with some variation in tax rules and powers, but with some core minimums

- huge area … the worlds most important currencies work because of scale
- disparate economies … a stable currency needs diversified industries

Take any of the big world currencies, it is because they are "over a huge area" and include varied areas with "disparate economies" that they "succeed*" rather than "fail*".

[i]*vagueness continues[/i]

Incidentally based on google research on the train, apparently some economists agree with me that the USA probably isn’t an optimal currency area.

Meanwhile, while some economists see Mundell’s attributes of the area as prerequisites, others see the attributes as things that come into existence because of the single currency. I suppose to take a simple example, if any area shares a common currency you will tend over time to see more and more of the area’s trade within that area. Makes sense. Of course other attributes less so.

When I see this sort of thing on an electrical network, I’m instantly wondering if there are two processes not one in play, or if there is a strong feedback loop, and whether any feedback is a stabilising or de-stabilising force.

I doubt economic systems are that different in that respect.

Now the interesting thing about such systems is that they often have a number of stable conditions (in this sense stable might be high unemployment and low GDP - so not necessarily good). An external stimulus might move the system from one stable condition to another. Alternatively it may move the system to an unstable condition from which it decays to a stable, possibly the original, condition. Note that a stable condition includes a cycle between a set of reasonably predictable states.

Does that sound true of economics?

The Euro saved Greece from misery? Err. Wow. Just wow.

Don't worry it's just Ed's sense of humour. Takes some getting used to !

3% of uk workforce v 50% youth unemployment - you decide which is more significant del

I doubt economic systems are that different in that respect.

Imagine an electrical system in in which one electron decides that it will move from positive to negative. Imagine that a few other electrons see it and think they will do likewise. The others within a part of the system follow suit.

Now the interesting thing about such systems is that they often have a number of stable conditions (in this sense stable might be high unemployment and low GDP - so not necessarily good).

Yeah - this is fundamental. I think it's called "market failure", and it's the rule rather than the exception.

Greece joining the Euro was surely a chance to fix the flaws in the Greeks economy, sadly the EZ never bothered with that.

Is there going to be a Davis, Barnier press conference today?

I imagine trump's trade war has lit a fire under the lazy toad's arse. Barnier must be loving it

May will be praying for some sort of good news b4 the conference, I believe she is also programmed to give a speech today on how us leaving the world's largest free trade bloc shows we are a champion of free trade, or some such

DrJ - I tend to think of people making those decisions in an electrical system rather than electrons, but when you have 30 million users involved in real (ish) time then people do act in a probabilistic manner - absent of other stimuli.

PS - beware people who claim to be engineers. Almost none of them are.

Is there going to be a Davis, Barnier press conference today?

I can't see there being much point. Its like Groundhog Day, isn't it?

Smug grin: "Everything is going great"

The grown up in the room "No it isn't. There has been no progress. Again!"

Greece joining the Euro was surely a chance to fix the flaws in the Greeks economy, sadly the EZ never bothered with that.

Greece has been refoming throughout the period of Euro memebership. Reforms that will assure future tax revenue from propery for example. If they hadn't been overseen by the ECB that would nver have happened. The country would have gone bankrupt and fallen into chaos.

[i](I think) Because a classic understanding of Economics will say that Monetary Union with[b]out[/b] Fiscal Union (central bank, single tax collecting body) over a huge area with disparate economies will fail.[/i]

ooppps 😳

May threatening Boeing.

Hows that free trade deal with the USA going, brexshitters?

Are there any Brexshiteers left on here?

Just you

Have the other 2 musketeers deserted him again?

The UK as a fiscal union? There are many instances where the economic policies that are right for the city of london are simply wrong for Scotland ( and to some extent many other parts of the UK) The larger a fiscal union and the less homogenous it becomes stresses in it grow.

The euro has serious flaws ( but would be stronger if the Uk joined 😉 ) However claims made years ago and still now that the euro has failed are simply wrong. Its in daily use by hundreds of millions of people. No country has left.