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No saving grace. If she has successfully blocked all possible avenues to pulling back from an exit, and yet fails at properly preparing us for that exit, and smoothing our exit… and getting us a sensible new set of arrangements after we exit… no brightside. And if anyone thinks that all the long term damage that scenerio would cause is worth it, to see her party being damaged and out of office, then please think of your country before tribal politics.
Robbins move has been planned for a few weeks, as EU team keep hinting May is planning on resetting negotiations and taking control herself, they said as much when they announced the timetable changes to accommodate her.
The big question is, will May announce a plan, or movement towards something akin to being an EEA partner, or signal she's really preparing us for a real outside status followed by long trade talks to end up with something like Canada? Or will she just reaffirm the "keep everything just as it is, but tear everything up" approach laid out in the negotiating documents? I wouldn't bet against more empty platitudes showing no real awareness that someone needs to kick things into action (fast action) as soon as the German elections are done. Movement. Any movement. A direction of travel. Something is needed, and reality says that we have to start It. And it now has to be her, as she's kept everyone else (apart from DD) well away from having any say in it.
If anyone is still under the impression we are in control of this process they need to sit down and review the current state of play.
1. We want/need a deal, the EU is prepared to "cut its nose off to spite its face" for the greater good of the EU politically (not something we are prepared to do as we are shallow capitalists)
2. The longer this drags on the more the Tories spiral out of control, Barnier knows this will weaken the resolve of both politicians and people. He has already witnessed a significant shift (transition deal) in a very short time.
3. The EU has not been required to make a decision or present a question to the 27 for decision, this alone indicates the lack of positioning by DD and his teams ability to present such requests.
4. The UK based overseas banks/manufacturers have lost faith in the UKs ability to deliver a Brexit deal and they will ride the transition deal right over the channel/Irish sea.
5. We have lost the deal Bexiteers, we lost it about 4-6 weeks ago, the Torys know it, Farage knows it, Boris knows it hence his bollocks in the newspaper, Mark Carney knows it and you can bet your life Barnier knows it.
Anyone on here that works in or has worked in high level global sales also knows this.
DD is an idiot he thinks he is the uber sales guy, trouble is he doesn't under stand that he has **** all to sell let alone something someone wants to buy.
and the direction this is heading in is possibly Labour etc. letting them roll along until May has to present either a hard brexit option or something that looks and costs similar to what is already in place - vote of no confidence then off to the polls - that would be the astute time to debate the EU at the GE level. When the rock and hard place situation is very clear.
Apologies if we've already done this, but I just came across it. Groucho Marx and BoJo:
The big question is, will May announce a plan, or movement towards something akin to being an EEA partner, or signal she's really preparing us for a real outside status followed by long trade talks to end up with something like Canada?
Or simply carry on with what she has said all along i.e. Attempt to negotiate a bespoke FTA deal?
Seems far more likely. EEA is an incomplete answer so hope she does better than that
It's all going so well that "carrying on" is obviously the sensible thing to do. Can't fail, really.
As I recall, May was originally pro-single market, pro-FoM, but very heavily anti-ECJ.
I wonder if anything has really changed? I.E. would she pretty much accept any deal that kept the ECJ out of (for example) UK human rights?
And don't tell me there's been a vote and that wouldn't uphold it - that's history, and I doubt May really cares about it very much.
Id agree May isn't the kind of person that changes her settings much, though with her anti-immigrant bias at the home office, in not sure how pro FOM she is.
She needs to show leadership, the feeling on the EU side is that the Tories don't know what the fk to do, especially with demagogues like Johnson & Mogg backing them further info a corner.
While EEA looses us huge chunks of influence, im just not convinced we have the ability to get much more from the EU.
Maybot's speech in Italy this week seems like it might be something along on the line of 'EEA or nothing'.
If it has to be voted thru...., as the resurgent Chappers keeps saying there is no parliamentary majority to take us out of the single market.
Let's see what we learn from Florence & the Machine tomorrow
Though I wouldn't be surprised if it's just more empty soundbites.
Some of this is bleeding obvious, if hard brexit/two was the preferred option then we would be say at the table discussing how to disconnect, thing is that's not what DD is doing as he is trying to get them to discuss a trade deal prior to sorting out obligations - hence it's very easy to establish the UKs bargaining position - to achieve what DD wants requires a constitutional change in the EU starting with FOM, how many people think that FOM will be changed within the EU? Anyone with half a brain including DD Boris etc knows and understands that currently FOM is critical to UK business prospering. At some point the Tories will either give in on this issue or self destruct.
Boris has sensed the lost deal and is positioning himself for the self destruction option by presenting himself as the swivel eyed option - it's pathetic at best, at worst it impacts on poor people's quality of life.
People would do well to remember that the UK on a pound/euro parity is very attractive to the EU as we will pay the extra for a BMW/week in Benidorm while they get cheap stuff/holidays from us.
Seriously folks this is not complicated and it's not being run by smart peole (those people that are smart are distancing them selves from this)
[quote=kimbers ]Id agree May isn't the kind of person that changes her settings much, though with her anti-immigrant bias at the home office, in not sure how pro FOM she is.
Anti immigrant? Based on her Home Office record she's all mouth and no trousers (and nothing subsequently has served to suggest that's an incorrect impression). If it wasn't for this awkward deadline where they'll just chuck us out with no deals agreed, I'd expect TM in charge of negotiations to result in her claiming that we were going to have our cake and eat it, but no actual change.
the feeling on the EU side is that the Tories don't know what the fk to do
Clearly no-one knows what the fk to do. Both major parties have painted themselves into the same corner with the "respect the referendum" bullshit when brexit is clearly insane to anyone who's though about it for more than a few seconds (excluding the swivel-eyed loons, of which there are of course quite a few).
As soon as Labour get in power it will eat them up too. There is no good brexit, there is not even a half-decent brexit.
The only half-plausible "solution" other than a full and humiliating climb-down is to create a new status of non-member who shares all the rights and responsibilities of a full member. Perhaps we could call it a pre-transition preparation. And then adjourn negotiations and quietly normalise the situation a year or two down the line when most of the brexiters are dead.
As soon as Labour get in power it will eat them up too.
I suspect so
an extra 350m a week?
more like we will have £300m a week LESS after Brexit
IFS’s deputy director Carl Emmerson.The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts the outlook for the UK economy and the public finances; these forecasts have been adopted by the chancellor as the government’s own. They contain an allowance of almost £250m per week — not £350m — for funding that could in principle go to the NHS rather than the EU. But this would involve no state support for any other activities, such as subsidies for agriculture, that are at present funded in the UK by the EU.
The bigger picture is that the forecast health of the public finances was downgraded by £15bn per year — or almost £300m per week — as a direct result of the Brexit vote. Not only will we not regain control of £350m weekly as a result of Brexit, we are likely to make a net fiscal loss from it. Those are the numbers and forecasts which the government has adopted. It is perhaps surprising that members of the government are suggesting rather different figures.
What Boris's intervention has shown is that May has absolutely zero authority, but for reasons best known to herself is desperate to cling on to 'power' (whatever that means in this context)
So I expect her 'Big Speech' will be the same empty meaningless 'Brexit means Brexit' platitudes that had grown tiresome 12 months ago. All she's bothered about is heading off a full-on leadership challenge, before or during the Tory conference.
She's going to be disappointed on that score. The knives are already out. Its going to be a bloodbath
Once again the future of the country takes a distant second place to the internal machinations and petty rivalries within the Tory party
I do hope she pulls her finger out tbh. But I don't hold out a lot of hope.
At this time no one could lead the tory party as the voews range from Boris or redwood to Ken clarke
May is not one of the most astute or skilled leaders [ or even technocrats] that we have ever had so it will all just be a desperate attempt to cling to power
TBH the shit storm ahead is her best bet as even Boris knows that to rule over this and lead us into an economic and political shit storm will lead to a one term Premiership
The are all waiting for he to be destroyed by Brexit and then they can rise from the ashes of that mess untainted. Its not her skill that is keeping her there its the iceberg ahead and she gets to hit it then they change captain.
salad_dodger - MemberQuality flounce Jamba. Just use your other log in when you feel the need to post on the forum.
Posted 1 day ago #
Oooh, [i]pleeeeease[/i] tell me Jamba has been officially outed as a multi-login troll.
Oops wrong thread
ooops Ed - quick get that on the religion thread. 😀
She's going to be disappointed on that score. The knives are already out. Its going to be a bloodbath
Normally i would agree, but i don't think anyone wants the job yet, and no one wants to be the knife man. Maybe that is where Rees-Mogg comes in?
Anyone who takes the job now is screwed. Mind you if the tories don't do something drastic soon they will become a political irrelevance, average age of c75, hardly conducive to long-term survival.
Maybe that is where Rees-Mogg comes in?
mogg absolutely pooped himself when it seemed like he might actually have a chance of leadership
far happier to sit on the backbenches and play his games
The only half-plausible "solution" other than a full and humiliating climb-down is to create a new status of non-member who shares all the rights and responsibilities of a full member. Perhaps we could call it a pre-transition preparation. And then adjourn negotiations and quietly normalise the situation a year or two down the line when most of the brexiters are dead.
Full and humiliating climb-down gets my vote. Followed by some sort of reckoning within the UK - probably involving the stocks and lots and lots of rancid vegetables.
Normally I would agree, but I don't think anyone wants the job yet
Boris certainly does. Because... entitlement
But whoever is the frontrunner and instigates the coup never ends up as leader. Thats just the way the Tory's do things. This ridiculous faux-truce situation just cannot continue, and once they're all together in Manchester (we'll give them the usual stay-behind-the-police-cordon-at-all-costs 'welcome') they won't be able to help themselves. All the factions wil plot and scheme against each other until the inevitable no-confidence letter heads to the 1922 committee
... and then all hell breaks loose
I wish they'd get on with it!
One prominent Italian commentator captured the mood of regret this way: “To be alone in 1940 among the enemy was heroic, to be alone in 2017 among friends is absurd.”
not sure if these have been posted.
Keeps on getting better, if you want to create a racist hell hole.
And it looks like Boris is getting ready to jump before the train goes over the cliff according to the Telegraph.
Then he can emerge as he savior after the train crash.
Guardian reckons is gossip spread by his enemies. Says ask the Times and Spectator, where he's worked.
The only half-plausible "solution" other than a full and humiliating climb-down is to create a new status of non-member who shares all the rights and responsibilities of a full member..
What like some kind of bespoke deal ?
Vince Cable absolutely nailed how we arrived at this nonsense completely today
"Another disaster looms..... Brexit. The product of a fraudulent and frivolous campaign led by two groups of silly public schoolboys reliving their dormitory pillow fight
And now thanks to Boris Johnson we have been led into a full scale riot while the headteacher is hiding, barricaded in her office"
Pretty much spot on, that
Odd how few people voted to support his view
Poor old Vince, unloved as ever
Odd how few people voted to support his view
Are you Jambalaya?
No Andrew Marr
He was a bit put out when I mentioned this on Sunday
What like some kind of bespoke deal ?
Your faith in the competence of Davis & co, especially considering the limited time left, is impressive!
Not at all
I'm happy to let you call it a "bespoke deal" and claim you "won" so long as we have all rights and responsibilities of full EU members.
Deal?
Odd how few people voted to support his view
FPTP - most votes in most constituencies are in a 2 horse race.
What like some kind of bespoke deal ?
Like we do as members.
A bespoke deal means a bespoke deal.
A bespoke shafting?
May Offering a 20bn exit bill apparently, not sure that'll be enough, but it's a start !
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Another disaster looms..... Brexit. The product of a fraudulent and frivolous campaign led by two groups of silly public schoolboys reliving their dormitory pillow fight
Poor old Vince can't get anything right - they don't have dormitories at Eton.
What like some kind of bespoke deal ?
Just sketch out the key points of this special deal... Unless the real lunitics get in charge it will be better than the ROW who don't really talk to the EU and different to any other deal already signed. Yep a bespoke deal is inevitable.
Best example of a bespoke deal yet 😉
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Bespoke deal? Utterly absurd. there is no time and no expertise to negotiate one along with no chance of the EU ever accepting one. the delusions are getting worse
20bn, that's about half the lowest figure Europeans are expecting.