[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

The reduction in prices

What? When we import so much food, how will it save us money with a lower currency? If our economy slides, how will that help the poorest?

Sounds like propaganda, doesn't it?

Funny that they complain about the EU being protectionist. If it's biased against those outside it, and in favour of those inside.. which is the better side to be on?

Just when you may have thought this thread couldn't get any sillier, you then discover Kato is a Queen fan!

[I] Edukator - Reformed Troll
For jambalaya to sing:

I want to break free
I want to break free
I want to break free from your lies[/i]

Class.
😀

EU doesn't have the organisation or dynamism to agree such things [trade deals] quickly

I am not sure who is the organised one and who the dynamic one.

ninfan - Member
I see that the [i]economists[/i] Report published by Labour Leave....

I had a quick read, and no economists were listed as contributors.

Edukator I could post up a suitably embarrasing photo of me doing my own impression of that video a few years back. However as self deprecating as I can be its not for this audience. As for breaking free yes thats exactly what we are doing, we wish the EU the best but it's not for us.

Will catch up on the thread later, @ninfan linked to a very interesting piece I read earlier. Unfortunately @ernie_lynch doesn't post here but as a Left/Labour Leaver he would I am sure have something to say.

David Davies made many very pragmatic points on Marr today (eg the "Brexit Bill" is not a legal commitment and it's not legally enforceable and that "the money" is very important to them). Politico also made a very valid prediction in that nothing much is likely to be resolved until an emergncy EU summit in Sep/Oct 2018

No but it takes about 1 minute to know who they are. Some very well known economists back this project including one I used to work with.

The only odd thing is that they are not natural bed fellows for Labour. Patrick Minford is better known for his association with she-who-cannot-be-mantioned!

Another leading figures is Roger Bootle who has just released to a book on how o make Brexshit work. First serialisation in the brexshit bugle today. As ever, I like to know what my opponents are thinking so will be downloading the book tonight on my kindle

teamhurtmore - Member
No but it takes about 1 minute to know who they are. Some very well known economists back this project including one I used to work with.

And yet they declined to be associated with this release, as contributors? Odd one, eh?

German Presidential debate tonight. Seems Turkey was discussed more than Germany with each candidate trying to "out tough" each other on Edogan/EU membership and the overall refugee / migrant crises and Merkel's past mistakes. Brexit wasn't mentioned. Merkel still favourite having turned around a very shaky position at the start.

http://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-martin-schulz-german-election-tv-debate-live-blog/

On the contrary - their logo is very prominent and the link goes directly to their website

As a group they are upping the marketing - two of the team in the Brexshit Bugle today (although they are no stranger to that paper tbf) and Bootle's book comes out on Thursday (so can't read tonight 🙁 )

Plenty of big name economists behind this and some interesting stats, not least Bootle's figures on how our market share has decreased since being in the single market while some of the biggest gainers have "accessed" (nb) the market under WTO. Of the list of the 40 fastest growing market shares of Xs to the founder members, we rank 36 while 14 of the 40 have access via WTO

Interesting. Looking foreword to Thursday

The Economists for Free Trade, not the economists, this definitely an impartial source?

Any more or less impartial than an academic with EU funding ? A University academic is probably your archetypal metropolitan lefty elite Remainer. The bulk of the Leave Economists seem to come from industry.

German Budget Surplus is 2.5/3x the UK contribution at the moment. Does that put into perspective the EU budget perspective?

So how come the Germans are so keen for the EU's net recipients to get less rather than they pay more post Brexit ? Also how come they are so woefully short on their NATO commitment and have asked for 10 (?) years to increase it from 1% to the target of 2% ?

Minford has been a Liverpool Uni since I can remember

Cogdon was one of the Tories three wise men - not a natural Labour ally

So how come the Germans are so keen for the EU's net recipients to get less rather than they pay more post Brexit ? Also how come they are so woefully short on their NATO commitment and have asked for 10 (?) years to increase it from 1% to the target of 2% ?

Minford - the man whose suggestion for a successful Brexit was to remove all tariffs, accept the total death of manufacturing and make the UK a service only economy. Great for GDP - not good for decent jobs for the working class.

I would be surprised if that was what he said, so would be interested in the source

But at least you know who he is - unlike some others.

Odd bedfellow don't you think?

metropolitan lefty elite Remainer.

#jambafact

It looks like we are finally getting some leadership from the EU

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41140564 ]Education top priority for Barnier, BBC link[/url]

Odd bedfellow don't you think?

There are far odder things to be found by digging around "Labour" Leave.

Anyway, is Minford still arguing in favour of the Poll Tax, and against a statutory minimum wage?

And Minford is promoting the unilateral lifting of all import tariffs.

Minford's statements have already been soundly debunked. His model is extremely simple and refuses to take into account things like distance and goods differentials etc.

[url= http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/ ]http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/[/url]

For no particular reason Kelvin, I don't imagine you old enough to be so on top of Minford's work (unlike an old codger like me 😉 )

Getting back to the politics, rather than economics - that's what driving things here, after all...

Anna Sourby was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning. It didn't sound much like she, or any of her other staunch remainers colleagues were in any mood for doing Dave, Boris, Liam and Enola any favours.

Saying that it was her duty as an MP to put the interests of the country before party loyalty. I'm sure that's exactly what Enola wants to hear

Apparently, the Tory whips have been in overdrive threatening every MP with apocalyptic consequences should they table amendments to the Brexit Bill. But as May has zero authority, no friends, and has pissed off most of her MPs on a political level with her shambolic election debacle, and a lot of them personally, like Nikki Morgan, a lot of them are clearly relishing the idea of well and truly throwing a spanner into the Brexit works.

And if you believe Andrew Rawnsley and other political commentators, Thursday will just be an early shot across the bows, before they really start to cause trouble as things get a bit more serious committee stage next month. And then May has the small matter of the Tory Party Conference to get through.

So the first skirmishes of yet another Tory civil war over Europe seem set to begin properly on Thursday.

Here we go again....

I dunno binners I think they are all so terrified of finding another leader that doesn't precipitate a Corbyn victory
and re Brexit, I don't think any of them really know how it will work out so I suspect they'll show little backbone and just vote as they are told by the whips, and carry on- slating May behind her back.

Minford's statements have already been soundly debunked

I think this is too strong, there is disagreement. My understanding is those who put forward to "gravity model", whilst numerous, have historically not been that successful at predicting trade flows. You never have to look far in economics to find an opposing view and it is always dangerous to assume one side of the argument has a monopoly of wisdom.

There are always opposing views, mistakes on "all sides", but Minford is an outlier, and, once again, his analysis is considered seriously flawed by his peers. In fact, he make the news BECAUSE he is well outside the consensus view in his field. Handy for the media (including those wanting to look "balanced").

I agree (in part) kelvin and the same could be said of Congdon hence my comment about odd bedfellows

An important section of the Labour Party aligning themselves with these guys is not obvious!!

Anna who, Binners?

Does anybody honestly believe any of this madness is actually being driven by economics? On either side?

We're well past the ideological event horizon. As this thread shows

Nobody, including economists... in fact ESPECIALLY economists have got the remotest idea what the outcome of all this is going to be. We're about to hurl ourselves blindfolded off a cliff, just to see what happens.

The only difference here* is whether you think doing something a bit smarter and more thoughtful might be an altogether better idea, or whether you're some Ayn Rand, free-market fruitloop who's bought into that whole 'Creative Chaos' BS

*I'm handily discounting thicko's and racists here. We all know what they think (and indeed, voted for).

speaking of Rand
Brexit & Corbyn the perfect (shit)storm

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21727080-combination-brexit-and-jeremy-corbyn-could-lead-dystopia-ayn-rand-predicted

Does anybody honestly believe any of this madness is actually being driven by economics? On either side?

Politics have always > economies on both sides which is why both sides are in a mess here.

Nobody, including economists... in fact ESPECIALLY economists have got the remotest idea what the outcome of all this is going to be. We're about to hurl ourselves blindfolded off a cliff, just to see what happens.

Calm down. We are not going off a cliff, that's just remoan nonsense. We are doing something that has never been done before true, but that does not mean it's a cliff.

as mountainbikers we should all be up for riding off cliffs?

its all down to the landing

what brexiters imagine...
[img] [/img]

reality...
[img] [/img]

The "cliff" terminology is being used by our current Conservative PM and our current Conservate Chancellor of the Exchequer. Remoan nonsense?

Yes. We are moving towards a messy compromise, not free fall.

BENDER!!!! NOOOO!!!!!!

I see BoJo pushing DD, well Govie told me....

Yes. We are moving towards a messy compromise, not free fall.

Davis also used the term cliff-edge

(May using 'cliff edge' term to get backing for her repeal bill, and to make her MPs considering backing amendments to think twice.)

(Hammond using 'cliff edge' to get backing for a transition arrangement that buys time to prepare for our new relationship with trading partners.)

(Can presume both think that a 'cliff edge' is a possibility, if they're using it to get people to back policies to avoid it.)

Moving towards a humiliating climb-down, more like.

good to see Barnier correcting the sloppy press on the crap headlines about teaching the UK lessons - he's far too sensible - and ditto with DD (not) calling Barnier silly on Marr

The press really should be more responsible as should remoaners. Leave the BS to the Brexshiteers.

Cliff edge may be a worse case scenarios - hence th uses alluded to ^ - but it won't happen. There is too much to loose on both sides.

So it is a possible scenario? Thank you

Not only a possible scenerio, but the default one.

Agree that it is very unlikely to happen… but would be foolish to assume that it can't… given the ticking clock and the cake and eat it starting position of "our side".

Perhaps but let's be precise shall we 😉 - what I said to Binners is that we are not going there. Not what are the possible scenarios.

I'm still waiting to hear if Boris can actually whistle.

I very much hope that the EU place some probability on it happening, otherwise the negotiations are a waste of time. They will just push us into a corner.

Good to see do acknowledging how the EU (doesn't) negotiation and the false Time versus Money tactic. He's obviously learning on the job rather than sticking his head in the sand. Well done that man.

DD learning on the job? Do we have time for that?

I'm still waiting to hear if Boris can actually whistle.

FOI request?

Yes, a marvellous performance from the tories all round. One can't avoid being thoroughly impressed.