DD learning on the job? Do we have time for that?
Clearly not, but it's better than those who remain stuck in the past - the result doesn't matter, the Brexshiteers lied to us, people are too thick to vote, it's was only meant to be an advisory poll etc, wah, wah, wah - so some progress and common sense on both sides is to be welcomed.
Better how? How is DD leading us to a situation that's even as good as now, never mind better? Where is he making progress towards an acceptable, never mind ideal, deal? Pick a well considered Brexitier, and ask how well they think DD is doing in moving us to an outcome that they want.
THM - Easy enough to find Minford proposing unilateral tariff removal and the response to his views. Google it - first page multiple hits.
Harder to find the comments from him on manufacturing and services. It was about a year ago he made the comments, and the argument was that Britain is far better at services than manufacturing (he was using productivity as a measure of better). If we dropped import tariffs unilaterally, and accepted we would just import finished goods from elsewhere, then that would actually drop prices in this country. We would all then work in the service sector (well we wouldn't have a manufacturing sector worth talking of) which being a more productive sector would give us a better standard of living. (Hmmm. Maybe. On average. Ignoring winners and losers.)
It reminded me strangely of The Time Machine by Wells and the division on humanity into two distinct sub-species.
Remember we as of 2016 were the 7th largest manufacturing economy in the world. We still make things. Bad idea to drop that I'd say.
Disclaimer - the clear bias and rough and ready nature of the above description is because I'm a liberal lefty engineer (unusual breed actually) not a right wing academic economist (possibly equally rare)
Better how? How is DD leading us to a situation that's even as good as now, never mind better?
That's impossible - we agree. I have long argued that Dave's deal is as good as it gets. But that's history
Where is he making progress towards an acceptable, never mind ideal, deal?
Very gradual progress made so far except in giving into the EU BS which would be - what's the word? - "silly"
Pick a well considered Brexitier, and ask how well they think DD is doing in moving us to an outcome that they want.
A - you have found "a" common Brexshiteer strategy. You are well ahead of me then.
IGM too much to take in but I am intrigued by an engineer reading Bloomberg!! May respond from train 😉
What gradual progress? What acceleration rate is needed to avoid the cliff edge that can't be allowed to happen?
How is his approach "better" than those proposing either a rethink about Leaving, or a closer deal with the EU (something akin to the rightly much derided Norway deal) in the medium term, not just upto the next election?
Not really. Its the deal we have now. We can keep having it if we want.But that's history
We can keep having it if we ask very, very nicely.
What do you define as his approach?
THM - not your average engineer 😉
Davis approach ? It's easiest to blame it all on May (hence no Tory wanting her job)
So far it's been...whine that we can't negotiate trade etc in parallel, despite having agreed the EUs schedule on day 1 of the talks.
Mostly its been to do what's in the best interest of the conservative party rather than the country
ie, triggering A50 as soon as possible to keep the swivel eyed among them from boiling over and ensuring that a transition deal ends b4 the next election, so they can say they are executing Brexit, regardless of the speed we're hiring the cliff edge .
Then obviously he was the brains behind the early GE that burnt up even more time.
He even admitted that he'd not done an impact assessment of a hard Brexit
And as thm points out Brexit isn't impossible it's just unknown & again Davis is sorely lacking as he's not done the impact assessments to see what it is the UK wants, Rudd only asked for an immigration assesment in March, other than Brexit meaning Brexit 😉 we won't know what we do want until ....?
By then it's too late a50s been triggered & the transition is running out, it's true to say this also leaves the EU on its toes, but leaves everyone wasting time preparing for the worst case scenario.
I've only read extracts from DD's book about his Tate&Lyle years, not the whole thing… so I'm paraphrasing his approach here… "don't tell them anything" "only make small, ever decreasing concessions" "make sure the other side makes the first meaningful concession".
So, I think he is looking to get the EU to back down as regards the sequencing (he's as much as said so) and so other cabinet members will need to step in and talk the talk as regards the exit agreement, to get the trade arrangement talks started in earnest, in time.
Pick a well considered Brexitier, and ask how well they think DD is doing in moving us to an outcome that they want.
A - you have found "a" common Brexshiteer strategy. You are well ahead of me then.
No, I'm not asking if DD is progressing to some unicorn "please all Brexit voters" end deal, I'm asking you to find a single considered Brextier, who campaigned to Leave, not bound by cabinet responsibility, who thinks DD is doing well. Just one. Those I follow on Twitter are scathing about him.
good to see Barnier correcting the sloppy press on the crap headlines about teaching the UK lessons - he's far too sensible - and ditto with DD (not) calling Barnier silly on Marr
I just wanted to agree 100% with THM about something. So I picked this.
You are a charmer kelvin and I will try to reciprocate - but first let me answer your questions and I so doing disagree again. Apologies in advance 😉
1. My FIL
2. I don't know but I would expect that Twitter followers are probably more rabid Brexshiteers but could be wrong
Ok, your other stuff
How is his approach "better" than those proposing either a rethink about Leaving
Start with the easy one - it's democratic
or a closer deal with the EU (something akin to the rightly much derided Norway deal) in the medium term, not just upto the next election?
Also easy but admittedly something that is easily misunderstood 😉
Don't forget two of the intermediate options - EEA and CU - are in themselves imperfect and worse that what we have now. Why? Neither gives access to the market for both services and goods. Each only gives access to one but not the other. THATS IMPORTANT. I will leave the other caveats and weakness for later.
Now the much (and falsely) derided red, white and blue Brexsit is different and better. Again, Why? Because it seeks to ensure access to both the markets for goods and services and to minimise the weakness of both the other options. So it's better, much better.
Now whether we get it of course is a different matter. Personally I doubt it. So what's my point? My perception of your earlier argument was that you were suggesting that DD was pursuing a hard Brexshit strategy and one that (we both agree) would tindeed be worse. But he is not and he said as much yesterday while agreeing with me that hard v south is a fatuous argument (he was politer than me on that point).
If he was more like jambas, ninfan and JR-M, rather than wasting time and effort in pursuing this more lofty goal, he would be simply putting demands down on the table and saying take it or we go HARD!!!
Clearly he isn't. So I rest my case and can turn to Gideons Gibshite in the train for amusement....
(I'm intrigued IGM!!)
"It's democratic" is just a dressed up "you lost, get over it."
Democracy doesn't exclude calls to change policy.
And why are you bringing up hard and soft?
So which Leave campaigners, not in the cabinet, say DD is progressing well?
I'm less concerned about where DD says he's taking us, and more concerned about where his approach will leave us in the end. As are people on all parts of the spectrum on the EU issue.
Oh campaigners? No idea, sorry.
Me too. He is doing a little better than two weeks ago, so progress. The soft tone from Barnier today was a surprise twist and hint of a chink in the EUs armour. He can't f@ck it up either as despite what many remoaners think, they really do have a lot to lose too.
So onwards towards a messy compromise achieved after an indeterminate transition period. [s]no cliffs needed[/s]
So hurry up guys and get Mary, Mungo and Midge together quickly so the proper stuff can be agreed.
Do we think other cabinet members are waiting for an impasse before stepping in?
[b]Edit[/b] - looks like it's happening soon… timetables changed on expectation of the PM stepping in with an announcement.
Sneaky edit there
1. Yes, that too. Q appropriate ("we did, we should")
2. Was think about not descending to HvS but sometimes compromises have to be made - there's a coincidence! I was really only in passing and then finally for (admittedly weak) comic effect. (I was told off on another thread this morning for not resorting to humour, so like DD that was a baby step 😉 )
waiting for a what???
So a simple question for you Kelvin
Why do you/might you (can't tell) prefer DD to be negotiating a Norway solutions (with its weaknesses) rather than the one he is currently negotiating (which is better)?
You can't beat a sneaky edit.
I always review after posting… only way to read what I'm posting with this teeny tiny text on an iPad.
True and I just slipped one in too 😉 !
The "new" forum is crap for typing
Why would I like an achievable deal to be arrived at in a timescale that means that businesses and border agencies can prepare for it? Are you asking me that? Cake and eat it strategy is a high risk game being played by those that don't have to pay the price of failure.
Some who voted remain would rather everything went to shit, in the hope that forces a reconsideration. I'd rather we kept a close achievable relationship with EU and other satellite countries, and then pushed to rejoin 20 years down the track, rather than further diverged.
I want more than the Norway deal though, as it would screw over our farmers and fishing industry just as much as a "clean break", and, despite how many people in those industries voted, I value them as a key part of what the UK is.
Despite all that pragmatism, I still think we should stay in the EU and protect ourselves from the pain… and obviously that would need a democratic mandate of some kind, before we've left. No idea how that can happen, but it should.
THM - not that intriguing either.
At this rate two years will pass by and the debate won't have got beyond the Irish border.
Tick, tock…
as despite what many remoaners think, they really do have a lot to lose too.
Odd. I dont know any remainers who thinks along those lines.
Anyone sane knows both sides are liable to get damaged. Unfortunately we seem to have some of the insane ones in charge currently.
Are we still on track for a perfect red white and blue Brexit?
Blood, pale skin, and bruises?
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n achievable deal to be arrived at in a timescale that means that businesses and border agencies can prepare for it? Are you asking me that?
No something far more important. So why services over goods for example? Why not both? The easy question first...
Cake and eat it strategy is a high risk game
True, but then ....
being played by those that don't have to pay the price of failure.
You are kidding 😯 ???? HIstory is waiting, pen at the ready to cast her judgment - good or bad.
Odd. I dont know any remainers who thinks along those lines.
Me neither, hence my choice of the more appropriate sub sect
Millionaires losing their political legacy is trivial compared to what others stand to lose.
Their £5 each way bet on the 3:30 from Brussels ?
being played by those that don't have to pay the price of failure.
Tony Blair has never paid the price of destabilising the Middle East and failing to win the hearts and minds of the people of Iraq. He just got richer.
I really don't see May paying the price of Brexit. Just as the poor of Iraq suffered most, so will the poor of the UK.
Perhaps, but to the same extent as the poor of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain
All better of inside the EU than outside it. All remember how nationalism and facism are no strangers to each other.
All better of inside the EU than outside it.
Nice to finish the evening with a rip snorting joke, Thanks.
Well, look at back at the 20th century history of those countries before membership.
See also Poland and the Eastern European countries now in the EU.
Good summary here
http://news.sky.com/story/amp/sky-views-the-next-three-months-are-totally-unpredictable-11019976
Though I think something being missed is that Brexit was 2 fingers to the elite, Cameron Osborne the Eton toffs etc
Now the Brexiters are the elite, why do you think labour want Moggy to be Tory leader...
And Corbyns surprise success was again 2 fingers to the elite
All Brexit has delivered so far is inflation, political paralysis, it hasn't fixed the housing crisis, public/private debt, unemployment maybe low but wages are tanking, food bank use still rising, libraries still closing, social mobility still a fantasy for many.
The Tories are banking on Brexit keeping them in power, I think they are overestimating how much prime care about it compared to how much they just want their lives to improve, it's becoming obvious to all that Brexit can't fix that, or problems have always been in Westminster not Brussels.
Sadly I think Brexit will still happen the hard core xenophobes in government (those that resent foreigners having influence over British plebs as that is their God given right) will get it through however they can no matter how bad the deal is for the country. That's how much they hate the EU
All Brexit has delivered so far is inflation, political paralysis, it hasn't fixed the housing crisis, public/private debt, unemployment maybe low but wages are taking, food bank use is still rising
Blow me - not laterally mind - I hadn't realised it had happened already, That DD bloke has surprised us all!
Exactly and it hasn't even happened yet !
Watching my weekly shop bill rise , can't say im feeling generous to the brexies either
& That's the point your missing thm, those voters who came out for the first time & voted Brexit expected to be reaching the sunlit uplands by now...
You think the world is sitting around waiting for Brexit?
People are "getting on with it", as you keep proposing they should.
The costs start as soon as people and business change to fit.
Some of that cost hasn't happened as early as many predicted, because UK consumers bought the easy Brexit lie.
Even that will change at some point soon, sadly.
Would like to be wrong.
People voted for change. But change for the better. What happens when that proves elusive?