So THM - you have nothing to back your assertions? What a suprise.
being disingenuous here and playing semantics
100%
well Ive just had a walk down memory lane
if you look at random pages on this thread (change the page number in the web address ^^^)
most of the discussion here pre-vote was about £350m for the NHS-being BS,
a lot of Jamba saying we should trigger A50 immediately after the vote as we will have people queing up to make glorious deals,
Jamba warning about turkey joining
Jamba saying that our currency would not crash & infact be considerably higher 2 years after the vote & that Boris will become PM straight after bote (THM accusing him of bullshitting a lot!)
quite a bit of discussion about long term forecats treasury made saying 2-8% less GDP by 2030 (havent found any menytion of short term ones
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/55/
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/69/
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/100/
TJ you are the guy who claimed that GDP would fall by 4%, misunderstanding the data at best, misrepresenting it deliberately at worst, and you continue to argue that a movement of 1% of banking staff is a flood when it is nothign of the sort and you provided links that falsified your nHS arguments. So you stand high in the standings of the moaners who have to hide behind massive distortions of the truth to avoid accepting the result. On top of that you level charges at the leavers that were better directed at yS and Thor who attempted to reek havoc on Scotland. Double hypocrisy but not surprise
oh balls my linking skills are poor
anyway you get the idea, it was justa lot of jamba telling us it was all going to be brilliant
The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
Lies about what would happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave. Quoted many times *
Point the first, "failing to accurately predict the future" and "lying" are not synonyms. Are all meteorologists lying when the weather forecast turns out to be incorrect?
Point the second, the economy did take a downturn - the pound plummeted the day after the ref - and the only reason it didn't crash as hard as predicted was because Mark Carney started printing money (which no-one anticipated). But you knew that of course, you're just being disingenuous. It's not like we didn't all discuss it to death a year ago or anything.
"Confirmation that the UK has voted to end its 43-year membership of the EU sent sterling down to a three-decade low on Friday morning.
The FTSE 100 plunged more than 8 per cent on opening in its biggest slump since the 2008 financial crisis, wiping £120 billion off the value of the 100 biggest UK companies.
Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Barclays fell as much as 30 per cent on opening, before rebounding slightly to trade at 16.7 per cent, 18 per cent and 17 per cent in mid-morning trading."
What else have you got? Actual deliberate lies, rather than crystal ball stuff. I can think of two offhand, but you seem to be an advocate of doing your own research so off you go.
thm, you are the guy pretending that the govt forecast was for 24.4% growth, misunderstanding the data at best, misrepresenting it deliberately at worst.So you stand high in the standings of the brexiters who have to hide behind massive distortions of the truth to avoid accepting that brexit already is, and will continue to be, significantly damaging.
24.4% growth
That's an entirely realistic figure, given a long enough time span. How long that takes will depend very much on what our new relationship, with what is currently our home market, becomes. Hard choices still to make. And then you need to get a mandate for your decision… …if you like to shout about democracy. Close or distant relationship; and all the trade offs wrapped up in that decision… no more quoting the growth that EEA+CU would enable, while also promising the autonomy that a Canada style deal could allow.
Both sides exaggerated, the Government publicized a worst case scenario. Leave used gross figures.
Any economic model should take into account possible mitigating courses of action so the prospect of money printing should have been anticipated - not to do so is a fundamental flaw.
FX rates and share price movements do not necessarily cause a reduction in economic activity - FX rates are a safety valve and in this context share prices recovered so quickly there would not have been any significant impact.
the Government publicized a worst case scenario.
True, but they published a whole range of scenerios. To say 'we're doing better than the worst case scenario" is to ignore that the predictions were "broadly corrrect"… and we have to admit that other like and close ecomomies did much better than predicted, in the same period.
[ Of note, one area where predictions were out, was job numbers (hurrah), you'd need a whole new thread to look at why that might be, but it's one area where "not as bad as predicted" is entirely justifiable. Still not a "lie" though. ]
Now, which new relationship to pick?
What are the government's most recent predictions based on that relationship, and how reliable might they be?
Do the "people" support that new relationship, over retaining EU membership?
Will the EU be on side with that new relationship?
How long will it take to transition to that relationship, and how do we pay for it?
To say ‘we’re doing better than the worst case scenario” is to ignore that the predictions were “broadly corrrect”
It's hardly something to be boasting about, either.
point is the shambles of government we have seen post vote has turned many against it
if Osbornes worst case scenario had been proved right, (ie liquidity crisis as in 2008) im sure itd be a great many more against it, wonder what the government would be doing in that scenario?
Citye THM I never said that about the economy, I told the objective truth about the NHS as the data I supplied shows. Already its far more than 1% of bankers involved in finance in the EU that have been announced to be leaving and many more will go
so actually wrong on all counts. Stop lying
If we can’t accept that we lied too then we are as bad/worse than Brexiters.
Ok, so remain lied. Whatever. Not really an issue now is it?
Let's move on.
Stop lying
And you stop goading with inflammatory language.
Kelvin, that 24.4% was supposed to be over 15 years in contrast to 25% without brexit. Whether or not the number is reasonable is not really the point, it's whether the govt forecast it or not. Hint: not.
Maths problems aside… that was based on SM+CU, which is now, apparently, not the Brexit we voted for, and a betrayal of the people… so an odd scenario to chose to base your figures on anyway.
Don’t worry about internet bullies mol. Read, smile, ignore.
if people move on then yes it isn’t an issue. What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote. That ignores that we did to. And did you see the Scot referendum?Talk about lies, lack of planning, and economic self harm.
What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote.
Is that better or worse than supposed remainers who are actually turncoats and meekly accept their fate? It's a shame the right wing have dibs on the term "cuck".
The meek sit, lie and moan. The strong accept, prepare and move on. Everyone has a choice.
Isnt scab better that turncoat?!?
last quote from peston which is for some balance
Right now, the humiliation of the doomsaying ‘experts’ has lured the UK into a fool’s paradise, where the real long-term risks and costs of leaving the EU are dismissed as the rantings of pro-EU nutters, rather than the real and present dangers we would be wise to debate and seek to mitigate or navigate around.
The funny thing is when you say
The meek sit, lie and moan.
I think of all the Brexiters complaining they are not getting their particular version of exit.
And it's the Remainers who are doing the demonstrating and legal challenges (you know, actually DO something).
The strong accept, prepare and move on.
Right now, the humiliation of the doomsaying ‘experts’ has lured the UK into a fool’s paradise, where the real long-term risks and costs of leaving the EU are dismissed as the rantings of pro-EU nutters, rather than the real and present dangers we would be wise to debate and seek to mitigate or navigate around.
You're making no sense at all. On one hand your dismissing remainers as fear mongers but that quote seems to suggest there are real problems to leaving.
You seem very confused.
The meek sit, lie and moan. The strong accept, prepare and move on. Everyone has a choice.
So by that definition, Boris Johnson is one of the meek then.
Right now, the humiliation of the doomsaying ‘experts’ has lured the UK into a fool’s paradise, where the real long-term risks and costs of leaving the EU are dismissed as the rantings of pro-EU nutters, rather than the real and present dangers we would be wise to debate and seek to mitigate or navigate around.
Yeah I'm not sure you've understood that.
As I say that’s a bit of balance. It’s a quote from Peston’s Book WTF.
I have already quoted his thoughts on official lies and independence of HMT. But like me, he also laments that as a result we get hardly any real economic analysis. Time we moved on to more important issues like UK’s appalling productivity record, the end of official gov stealing (QE) and the outcome of the coming Milan v Brussels stand off
Making stuff up about our current performance and/or hypothetical what if scenarios doesn’t get us very far. We have ceased rational debate of what Brexit actually means and probably will never get that back
as a remainer, I have never denied the negative impacts. Just don’t see the need to grossly exaggerate them.
as a remainer, I have never denied the negative impacts. Just don’t see the need to grossly exaggerate them.
No just try to ignore them.
Time we moved on to more important issues
Ok how about…
Now, which new relationship to pick?
What are the government’s most recent predictions based on that relationship, and how reliable might they be?
Do the “people” support that new relationship, over retaining EU membership?
Will the EU be on side with that new relationship?
How long will it take to transition to that relationship, and how do we pay for it?
Or of course, we could do some whataboutery, pretend that everything has been agreed and sorted as regards Brexit, and talk about something else… but if you want to do that… please start another thread.
And did you see the Scot referendum?Talk about lies, lack of planning, and economic self harm.
Start other threads about the things you're desperate to talk about. Please
the outcome of the coming Milan v Brussels stand off
Doubt I'll try contributing to that thread, but go ahead, start it, please.
What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote. That ignores that we did to.
So, finally we get to a proper point. And that is a valid issue yes.
But I don't think that's what many people are complaining about. The way I see it is that we had an advisory referendum, so the government knew the people's opinion on the EU. So they then had to formulate a plan and offer that to us. But they charged ahead and are apparently delivering what only a small number of people want.
That's why we need another vote. It's common sense. It's not simply whining about wanting the original result nullified. Of course A50 should not have been triggered until AFTER this second vote.
What the government seems to be doing is madness, judged on their actions. Nothing to do with whingeing about the result. As for 'not moving on' I don't know what you are talking about. I will never like the result, I will always express my opinion on it, but there is nothing else I can do about it. I go and fix people's computer systems, that's all I do - Brexit planning does not come into it. So you can't accuse me of not doing anything to progress the situation when I'm powerless.
Never ignore drac. That would be very silly,
Identify, assess, mitigate. Much better.
no need to contribute kelvin, but if you don't understand why Milan and Brussels are about to have a fight your probably don't understand why we lost either.
the work of my friends at UBS was classic whataboutery and you seem very keen to discuss that. And on this thread not another?!?
well mol, good job (sic) we had May in charge. Old Jezza was all for an immediate triggering of A50. He was very clear on that. Not sure how much progress we would have made, if any, without triggering A50.
if you don’t understand why Milan and Brussels are about to have a fight
I genuinely thought this was just a random football comment.
the work of my friends at UBS was classic whataboutery and you seem very keen to discuss that. And on this thread not another?!?
In what way wasn't the UBS report about Brexit, directly?
Oh, hang on, just back to trolling.
It was about Brexit, don't start doing a cougar on me. Go and read about it and what the analysis was and then you will see it was little more than a hypothetical exercise. Interesting from an academic pelrspective but FA use from a practical one.
no what about if we imagine the U.K. had the following characteristics and what about....
😀 enjoyed the honesty about the football comment!! 😀
Sorry, I should have been clearer i.e. the Sep Italian budget. What the people voted for v what Brussels demands...coming to a country near you...
edit: removed opaque riddle nonsense
well mol, good job (sic) we had May in charge. Old Jezza was all for an immediate triggering of A50. He was very clear on that. Not sure how much progress we would have made, if any, without triggering A50.
Well there wasn't a time limit was there? We could've made all sorts of proper plans. That would have been very sensible indeed. Especially as both main parties were keen on respecting the vote. I wouldn't have anywhere near as much to moan about if we were being sensible about coming up with a plan.
Where's the public debate on our options and how to proceed?
Yep, government should have decided on a plan, then sought a mandate for it (election or referendum, or at the bare minimum votes in parliament) before setting the A50 clock ticking. That Labour MPs were up for a blind race towards an exit date doesn't make it any wiser a move.
Jezza wants a mandate to create the socialists workers paradise - Brexit helps him in his vision
thr general Tory party want to remove regulations and all those nasty barriers to profiteering and recreation of workhouses - Brexit helps with this...
both schemes are going to plan, if you didn’t realise this when you voted because you are not magically psychic then that’s you fault not theirs
Good news : gov of BofE has said he'll stay on long enough to cover the transition (between this PM and the next one?). We have a grown up.
Grown ups are nice
But still no real plan ?
Well we have May's plan, but everyone says it's impossible
We have no deal which is just stupid as ****
We have the FTA /Canada option but that's gonna require gonna require a fudge & a big chunk of blind brexit to give us enough time to sort it out, especially regards NI & still gonna be a shitter without a CU....
Raab today seems far less confused than Davis always was, but grinning manically & repeating 'i have energy & ambition' is perhaps not enough ?
What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote.
Opposition is a core part of any democracy. Otherwise what you have is a dictatorship. But you know that.
I don't think "leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote," though the rank corruption in their funding might be. In any case it's a moot point, it's not going to happen.
The meek sit, lie and moan. The strong accept, prepare and move on.
The meek roll over and do as they're told when being bullied, the strong fight back.
We can all spout platitudes. Come up with any of those alleged lies yet?
Yes but since you havent read any of them, there is no point in repeating them. Or are you talking the other lies that you are in denial about?
you are being a bit unfair to the Italians, Portuguese and Greeks there too
Yes but since you havent read any of them, there is no point in repeating them. Or are you talking the other lies that you are in denial about?
I'm talking about the ones you're alleging. What you may or may not be considering a lie I have no idea, I'm not a mind-reader. I already responded to your first example.
What we can’t hsve is undemocrats pretending that leavers telling porkies is a reason to nullify the vote.
See you keep obsessing about that. Where as people rightly want a say in the deal agreed. They want to make sure it delivers for them or in fact a majority of the population.
They want it presented and explained along with costings so we can have a proper democratic debate on it.
If in the end of the day you can't sell no deal or some deal to more than 50% of the population why should it be the path to follow.
At the moment we have 2 sides saying May's plan is bobbins and her and a couple of cannon fodder ministers left trying to sell it to Brussels (who said no) the tories (who say no) the opposition (who say no) and the public who say no!
Spotted a theme there, we are not even close to something that is acceptable to both sides.
The prospect of a last minute agreement that doesn't please anybody is what people want an escape clause from.
No you made two false comments about the economy and the BoE actions and cited some short term movements in financial assets. None of which negate the point that our side deliberately lied about the immediate impact of a leave vote.
Or are you implying that Carney surpised himself by his response?
Good luck with full costingd. We want (or should want) a bespoke FTA. The EU dont want/will not allow that. Moaners will also try to ensure we don’t get one The EU also will not negotiate. So we have a mess, don’t we
at least those nasty bankers are on top of things
The EU dont want/will not allow that. Moaners will also try to ensure we don’t get one The EU also will not negotiate. So we have a mess, don’t we
We do - "hold on, lads - I've had an idea..."
I like the double criticism of the EU for the same thing in the space of three sentences.
We want (or should want) a bespoke FTA. The EU dont want/will not allow that. Moaners will also try to ensure we don’t get one The EU also will not negotiate. So we have a mess, don’t we
It's almost as if this was predicted before the referendum but dismissed as #ProjectFear (in my head I'm hearing trump say that with air quotes)
So I guess the only solution is with a meek conciliatory voice ask what deal we can have and sign up to that.
If only there were other options, if only there was something else we could do, perhaps the public could be consulted on what they think.
Brexiters will insist on a hard Brexit as out means out so will prevent any deal. Remainers would like a sensible deal or the whole thing cancelled if it means no deal. Not that either can have an influence if no decision vote can be made.
No you made two false comments about the economy
What was false about my statements? I don't profess to being an economics expert.
cited some short term movements in financial assets. None of which negate the point that our side deliberately lied about the immediate impact of a leave vote.
Shorty-term movements = immediate impact, n'est-ce pas?
Or are you implying that Carney surpised himself by his response?
Carney announced the BoE's plans after the referendum, and in any case he wasn't part of the Remain campaign as far as I'm aware so it's not relevant.
I suppose it's possible that some campaigners knew this was going to happen months earlier, but I doubt it was particularly common knowledge. Unless of course that's exactly what you're suggesting, that everyone campaigning knew all about it and chose not to say anything. I guess neither of us will know whether that was the case or not. Odd that Leave never thought to mention it if that was the case though.
Is that the only one you've got? You're complaining about remainers denying that Remain lied. Come up with an actual lie and I'll agree with you. That's actual lies, not merely campaigners lacking a crystal ball. There's two I'm aware of (and I've forgotten what the second one was now).
FFS
Moaners will also try to ensure we don’t get one
Nope. Don't you dare try and put the blame on us for this mess.
Nope. Don’t you dare try and put the blame on us for this mess.
Given we have no say it's hard to imagine how we are impacting this process, if we are then making more noise might get us what we want.
It's all very confusing
If in the end of the day you can’t sell no deal or some deal to more than 50% of the population why should it be the path to follow.
Love the clarity of this comment.
Brexit helps him in his vision
Which would be fair if there were no socialist countries in the EU, but there are. With far better social provisions than us. The EU is not a barrier
Brexits helping to toxify the Tories just nicely
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1036721688120119297?s=19
I see Mervin King is the latest bumbling idiot to miss the point.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45400994
Of course the govt was incompetent to rush ahead with no plan, but the fundamental problem is that there is no brexit solution.
Merv gets it right
position: FTA or we go it alone. My view exactly. United stance. Instead we still fighting the old debate crushing sour grapes between our toes
debate: pathetic and misplaced
Wow. So even if both of those options are worse than staying in, we shouldn't even discuss it any more. I'm not sure I'm so happy with this taking back control malarky. 🙁
THM you were waiting for John Curtice to tell you the people had turned against brexshit ?
Go it alone is lunacy & you know it THM, while the city would survive, manufacturing would be hit , May was forced to offer the car makers a pledge on frictionless trade that she'd be breaking. Not to mention countless treaties left up in the air.
FTA seems only option, but looking at calibre of government that have been handling brexit so far, would we have enough time without a Norway deal transition for a few years whilst the government squabbled over what it is we want....?
Instead we still fighting the old debate crushing sour grapes between our toes
Not “we” in this case it’s the Government who’ve been negotiating but have been unable to decide amongst themselves what brexit is. Don’t drag anyone else into maybots, Mogg and bojos failure
I have always argued for FTA
United stance. Instead we still fighting the old debate crushing sour grapes between our toes
I have always argued for FTA
Problem is you need to persuade the tories to go for that.... At the moment you are asking people to unite behind something that isn't on the table yet.
It is good to know you think we are having an impact with our negativity, it's working then so we will continue.
That’s always been Mays position. But few would back it. Sad.
Genuine question can an FTA give is the kind of frictionless trade we have with SM & CU?
As I understand it Canada deal doesn't cut it & still a big increase in buearcracy to satisfy rules of origin, would be magnified because we trade so much more to EU .
Also wouldn't satisfy NI border problem
And we'd have to include services
Will require a lot of concessions from us to keep EU happy,
Canada +++ as Davis called it sounds a lot like Cakeism that the EU would not go for
That’s always been Mays position. But few would back it. Sad.
You know she is not the important one in the negotiation do you.
That’s always been Mays position. But few would back it. Sad.
Well she only needs her own MPs that chose her as leader, plus the DUP who are already bought and paid for. It's hardly the fault of the rest of us, we don't get a say.
If Curtice is right & a people's vote would show a 20% swing to remain, it's not just her own MPs that don't back her or brexshit
The will of the people !!! Has changed, all thanks to the incompetence of the tories in the negotiations!
It's not often I praise the Tories but they've done a grand job of making brexit look like a shitshow
From the very beginning I've suspected that May is playing a very cunning game for the good of the country.
In a grand self sacrificing act of patriotism she has been sinking brexit from the inside, she know its a frigging stupid idea but she also knows that if the hard liners get to drive the bus we'd be well and truly screwed.
interesting article from Reuters today. 59-41 swing in new poll.
plus the DUP who are already bought and paid for
Indeed. And just in case anyone forgot, when a Tory or DUPper starts talking about the hijacking of the “hard won peace in NI”...say someone like the massive cock, Nigel Dodds:
https://twitter.com/nigeldoddsdup/status/1037020824878964736?s=21
...the DUP opposed the GFA.
So, THM - if people knew exactly what they were voting for (and/or all wanted the same thing) before the referendum, how come they seem to be changing their minds now?
They couldn't be thinking they made a mistake, surely, because they were all rational actors in possession of all the facts, surely? They couldn't have made a mistake.
Particularly liked “Hi, Nigel. Big fan here. Listen, let's get down to brass tacks: how much do you charge for a good ride?” in the replies to Dodds
debate: pathetic and misplaced
Well, at least you're now being transparent about your motives… to shut down and dismiss debate. Now, what were you saying about "undemocrats"…?
I have always argued for FTA
You can prefer a "bespoke FTA" all you want, but that is a very wide remit, from an EEA style arrangement, sharing standards and governance in many sectors, to the bare minimum agreement to avoid/reduce tariffs for key industries. Lots of hard choices need to be made to determine the content and timing of an FTA. And, only the minority of the population will prefer those trade offs, whichever are chosen, over continuing our current arrangements (and, very slowly, revising them in future).
Do you support the impossible "bespoke FTA" that May has laid out, far too late, or do you have your own idea of how it should look… and would your version have the support of "the people", or even a big enough chunk of MPs, and, of course, the agreement of governments of other EU countries…? How about the agreement of the governments of major nonEU countries the EU has recently signed FTAs with?
How does Ireland fit into your version of an FTA?
Oh, don't bother us with asking for pesky details. See the big picture! Bespoke, red white and blue, brexit means brexit! Sunlit uplands! Global Britain!
Cash & Raab 2 brexiteers arguing over Ni border as part of Canada FTA
Raab as minister having to accept reality & admit its a problem Cash able to wish it away 🙂
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-45399734
also raab mostly being ignored while his junior (oillie robbins) seems to be the real grown up
jesus Raab is looking worried
he seems to care much more than Davis ever did, but that just means hes exposed
again Robbins looks the grown up
Please don’t play the shut down debate card on this thread of all places. Why do you think it’s largely an echo chamber? I am all for informed debate. Less so for exagerated BS
As someone who prepares for the worst but hopes for the best mol I have no problem if there’s no Brexit. I just want to know and get on with it either way.
But if people are hoodwinked into changing their minds then that is a different matter. That ultimately supports the growth of populism with false solutions - salmond/sturgeon; trump; Farage etc
the Brexit swingometer moves back towards "blind Brexit" …
[ still the most likely position we'll be in come March IMO ]
But if people are hoodwinked into changing their minds then that is a different matter
What if people change their minds, due to the position we are actually in now (or early next year, or before whenever a "real" exit day might be) but are called "undemocrats" if they think they should be consulted as to their most recent desired path for the country?
edit - I see you've edited your post to add one of your little SNP side jabs - again - take your boring whataboutery trolling elsewhere.