It's not what they said.
THM's quote again:
using the gov’s own numbers, in 15 years time the economy will have grown 24.4% instead of 25%
If chequers deal is dead, surely May is finished.. we know Borris wants the job, but seems to offer no alternatives, so may will cling on a bit longer
Either way we'd surely have to ask for an extension, blind brexit seems equally unlikely, the EU would be mad to offer it without some legal safeguards.
On a lighter note I just saw this:
And immediately thought of Dicken's insightful post from a few pages ago...
looks like a massive decline in the UKs power and sadly will lead to an exodus of talent. IN a past life I worked at the MHRA and for this to happen makes me very very sad. UK pharma may not recover from this. The costs associated with restarting may just be too much... even if we stay or retain close links significant damage has been done.
still I am sure someone will be along soon to explain what billion pound industries we have ready to launch in March.
Ducking gutting to see this happening
My source tells me that nothing is leaving the UK, even if it is it's not that much it's not even all of it, in fact somebody wanted to come over an open a french pharmacy here.
So what, this country conquered the world with no more health care than leeches and blood letting.
Let the lion roar.
I don't understand. All the brexiters are racists, why would they have changed their minds? Surely a second ref will have the same result?
A lot of them will be dead .
Surely a second ref will have the same result?
Which is why, now all the information is coming out about the sort of deal we can expect you really really don't need to ask them again, in fact it would be a waste of time.
the young lad in the office who thinks we should just do it* and then work out the rest later thinks Deal/No Deal/Stay is a plot to split the vote, Asking of Remain got more than 50% he didn't know what would happen...
*It is basically leave, you know leave and it will happen, and stuff, like leave not sure how much it will cost but you know leave.....
It's details like that which really make me think they took a while to think this all through.
I don’t understand.
Clearly not.
All the brexiters are racists
No. Just that is someone is a racist its a fairly safe bet they are a brexiteer as well.
Even some of the racists leave voters must have realised that brexit is a shitshow that's not worth the hassle
They've probably also started to notice that the brexiteers are charlatans who don't have a freaking clue how to make it work
Surely a second ref will have the same result?
It wouldn't be a re-run. It'd be a vote on the deal, or lack thereof. So:
Should the UK leave the EU with no deal?
That would have a different answer. I think a lot of the less looney Brexiteers were banking on the deal being easy, I think far fewer people want to crash out without a deal than voted out.
Brexit Has Already Cost U.K. More Than 2% of GDP, UBS Estimates
“to put that 2.1 percent cumulative decline in real growth into context, that’s roughly a quarter to a third of the total Brexit costs estimated in the most pessimistic assessments done prior to the EU referendum and almost equal to the full costs of some of the more optimistic assessments,” wrote UBS analysts including Pierre Lafourcade. “But the U.K. has not even left the EU yet!”
Kelvin, I think you will find that we never really had the cash in the first place....
No. Just that is someone is a racist its a fairly safe bet they are a brexiteer as well.
Alot of the anti-semites seem pretty keen on remain.
Brexit Has Already Cost U.K. More Than 2% of GDP, UBS Estimates
THM can you comment on this?
anti-semites
Squirrels !!
keen on remain
Name some of these squirrels please…
All the brexiters are racists
No, they are not.
No it hasn't
Alot of the anti-semites seem pretty keen on remain.
How many do we have or is this an update from high command?
Just look at the Labour's Problems thread and cross refer.
“Do your own research.”
It's OK I have been Mefty, I'm amazed none of you had spotted this thing years ago, after all you care about this don't you
But this is certainly not a distraction is it
You would be all over any kind of racism wouldn't you?
It's late (in France) and can't be bothered to read whole article - but OBR expects U.K. to grow by 1 6%, our LT average is approx 2.5% so the headline (after a long day climbing and copious wine) seems improbable. Will look at what my old mates are saying in the morning.
another report of th study suggest that their Frankenstein model suggests that the UK economic growth could have been 100 basis points higher i.e. Above LT growth which given where we are in the U.K. Cycle seems to fail a basic reality check. Need to verify what they mean by cumulative too, but not now!!
(bob time you had a word with the deadly one. More appropriate)
It’s late (in France) and can’t be bothered to read whole article
Lol if one post undermines your entire analysis that was it....
Lol if one post undermines your entire analysis that was it….
Plus taking time out of a holiday to post on here about. Cringemeter off the scale
intrigued but tired, a little extra reading produces this which of course will not be reported by shows the value of independent research. Their report goes on to say
UBS' economists also noted that the impact of the Brexit vote on U.K. businesses has not been as dire as expected.
"As is natural for anyone driving towards a cliff — in this case U.K. firms likely facing a sharp increase in tariffs and non-tariff barriers — one would expect them to start hitting the brakes: i.e. scale back employment and investment decisions as uncertainty mounts. But unemployment (4 percent) just nudged down to its lowest level since 1974, wage growth is increasing and gross fixed capital formation bounced back resolutely in the second quarter from its first quarter weakness," they said.
"Although many other data look decidedly lackluster, the seemingly muted reaction of U.K. firms feeds a narrative that Brexit uncertainty is doing a lot less damage than anticipated," they added.
and the headline and nonsense reported on the UBS study..?!?
Chin up ...
Holiday or no holiday, it's (a) important to keep on top of what is ACTUALLY going on and (b) to have a laugh reading doomsday BS. The in-house entertainment in the refuge is no where near as funny.
The in-house entertainment in the refuge is no where near as funny.
Quelle surprise.
So still negative then, right?
it’s (a) important to keep on top of what is ACTUALLY going on and (b) to have a laugh reading doomsday BS. The in-house entertainment in the refuge is no where near as funny.
By not reading things, damm no wonder the banks pay you so well...
Of course this will not have any impact on the UK
> https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/02/britain-loses-medicines-contracts-as-eu-body-anticipates-brexit <
As posted on the last page
Not really, it's an artificial model applied in an artificial way that creates a headline that seems implausible. The bit I quoted rejected their own cliff analysis and indicates how resilient the U.K. Economy has been. That's just basic facts not an artificial model. You can chose which bit to focus on.
Unlike you mike, I will probably get a copy of the report and actually read it - even bothered to google it myself instead of relying on inaccurate spoon feeds. But you are showing just how ironic bobs complaint was. Well done you make a fine double act, or should,that be triple?
and the impact of medical research etc?
(knock on our companies, knock on out universities, knock on education, knock knock knock....)
has not been as dire as expected
Looks to be at the worse end of the range of predictions, no…? But not as bad as the worst case predictions made. So far. Worst case predictions are precisely that… they are not the most likely, or the most representative. The report also make pains to point out how the surprise high growth in like and close economies has helped reduce the damage at home. So far. We're still trading with them on the same terms.
Unlike you mike, I will probably get a copy of the report and actually read it
Just post a link so we make sure we are reading the same thing, it's really easy I do it with my colleagues several times a day, I left a little guide on the last page Ctrl C, Ctrl V
has not been as dire as expected
Is a phrase often used about a bout of gastro
Not even close to the lies our side put out. Note the bregudging way UBS admits the same thing
UBS' economists also noted that the impact of the Brexit vote on U.K. businesses has not been as dire as expected. To repeat:
But unemployment (4 percent) just nudged down to its lowest level since 1974, wage growth is increasing and gross fixed capital formation bounced back resolutely in the second quarter from its first quarter weakness," they said.
"Although many other data look decidedly lackluster, the seemingly muted reaction of U.K. firms feeds a narrative that Brexit uncertainty is doing a lot less damage than anticipated," they added.
Yes let's not talk about the Titanic success that is brexit.
the lies our side put out
Who is our side?
has not been as dire as expected. To repeat:
In other news the Titanic sinking was not as bad as it could have been
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic
Some people didn't drown
and the impact of medical research etc?
But that's nothing to do with bankers, so of no concern.
Even some of the racists leave voters must have realised that brexit is a shitshow that’s not worth the hassle
It won't be many of them. Hate of foreigners is very strong and prioritises most other concerns.
Like banking, interesting to see who the ultimate losers are. Even the guardian didn't airbrush:
Thompson suggested the removal of the MHRA from the approvals system was the EU’s loss. The MHRA did one-third of all the manufacturing inspections and in terms of patient safety they had picked up one third of all “adverse events”. He said: “This is a pre-eminent regulator. As part of the withdrawal agreement the UK regulator ... they will just be an observer in that system.”
Cut of your nose....
Not even close to the lies our side put out.
I've got to take issue - the whole "Remain Project Fear" thing gets referenced a lot on here and social media and I usually let it slide, but to suggest Remain was less truthful than Leave is shocking. I'd be extending a conciliatory hand if I agreed that Remain exagerrated but all their claims were based on likely outcomes of Brexit (loss of trade, international standing, etc) - in contrast to 350 million for the NHS/Turkey joining/EU army outright bullshizzle.
Thompson suggested the removal of the MHRA from the approvals system was the EU’s loss.
Yes, in much the same way that banking and manufacturing moving to the continent is a disaster for the EU.
The Eu briefing paper admits that banking developments would also harm the EU. The ultimate losers are EU corporates (and households). Lower supply, higher price of finance
if our side wish to airbrush our own lies then so be it. We are no better that the leavers whole lied too in that case
Get you hand out, they were exaggerated and deliberately so with the appalling pressure on the treasury to lose its independence
that is what is so galling about the moaning side - the hypocrisy of all the new lies and distortion of the truth with the objective of misinforming those who cannot/will not to their own research and subverting the democratic process.
How does anyone know the Tories weren't going to screw the economy without Brexit?
What else did UBS day;
The economy is already 2pc smaller than it would have been without a vote for Brexit, according to research by UBS released on Monday.
The bank’s calculations also estimate thatinvestment is 4pc lower and consumption 1.7pc....
Still, “to put that 2.1 percent cumulative decline in real growth into context, that’s roughly a quarter to a third of the total Brexit costs estimated in the most pessimistic assessments done prior to the EU referendum and almost equal to the full costs of some of the more optimistic assessments,” wrote UBS analysts including Pierre Lafourcade. “But the U.K. has not even left the EU yet!”
They argue that this effect has gone relatively unnoticed so far as it was masked by the uptick in the global economy, which helped to buoy the UK.
And you can see that UBS analysis in not quite what is reported. They constructed a hypothetical model based on characteristics of other countries to create an assumption on where the U.K. “might” have been. Hence the term Frankenstein to describe the model. Unsurprisingly the headlines don’t tell the whole story
a hypothetical model
Lovely. What kind of model would you rather use?
if our side wish to airbrush our own lies then so be it
Whio are "our side"?
the appalling pressure on the treasury to lose its independence
The Treasury is not the OBR.
if our side wish to airbrush our own lies then so be it. We are no better that the leavers whole lied too in that case
You think there's an equivilance between predictions with a basis in fact and outright lies?
They constructed a hypothetical model
What model was used to claim that the NHS would benefit from 350m a week, or that Turkey would join the EU?
I’m not defending leavers lies, just pointing out the hypocrisy of our side doing the same now.
This is not a typical model. Instead a very artificial exercise hence its name.
Forget models, at the end of the current elongated cycle our economy is growing below LT trend (as you would expect) but better than expected and proving doomsday forecasts wrong. Europe is also slowing but not collapsing (despite European share prices)
Some more links that may be useful:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Concern_troll
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/concern_troll
proving doomsday forecasts wrong
Worst case forecasts are nearly always wrong. Doing better than the "doomsday" forecasts does not mean that forecasts as a whole were wrong.
Would you agree that the performance of the UK economy was helped by better than expected growth in our main export markets? And that currently we are yet to change how we trade with those countries?
It’s not the OBR true. It is meant to be independent not a mouthpiece for Osbornes propaganda
the “forecasts” were wrong. Very wrong. We lied in order to influence the vote. And it didnt work. Fortunately the economy was more resilient than the forecasts
It is meant to be independent not a mouthpiece for Osbornes propaganda
He's gone. What about analysis done since the referendum? Is that "lies"?
the “forecasts” were wrong. Very wrong. We lied in order to influence the vote.
Nope.
Check the OBR reports comparing predictions with actuals… "judgements were broadly on track."
I’m not defending leavers lies, just pointing out the hypocrisy of our side doing the same now.
When you say things like...
Not even close to the lies our side put out.
... you kind of are.
... our economy is growing below LT trend (as you would expect) but better than expected and proving doomsday forecasts wrong
In comparison, how much has Turkey joined the EU, over the same timescale?
The REAL big hitters join the debate...
https://www.mumsnet.com/politics/seven-out-of-ten-mumsnet-users-want-vote-on-brexit-deal
It must be difficult to keep a straight face while posting about official "doomsday" forecasts on the one hand and official "24.4% GDP growth" forecasts on the other.
Of course, it's possible that one or the other is made up.
Or both, even.
Turns out Mumsnet have managed to sum up how Brexit is going quite well:
I envisaged jobs, travel and opportunity, not having a potato delivered by the army.
Forecasts and models always have some issues.
By and large the general predictions on the negotiation challenges and the loss of business have been true. There have been losses from the city to Europe there would not have been if we had remained, these will only be clear middle of next year, there will be a devastating effect on the pharmaceutical industry as can already be seen by the change of the UK from lead regulator to observer, we have lost the EMA and other key agencies, many businesses are extremely worried about the introduction of customs paperwork and the loss of their skilled European workforce...
Probably the most worrisome thing is that there has yet to be a single positive projection from the leave side.
It is widely accepted that the economy will perform worse and that we will need to pay more for everything (research, health, food etc.) for at least the next 10 years...
Blue passports! Even if they are French. Surely that's a positive.
Don't see how brexit can't not be negaty effecting the economy, pharma, car manufacturers, freight hauliers, food industry NHS, government themselves all said they are spending £billions to prepare for brexit
THM has spent time withing on it, in sure his hourly rate is not inconsiderable 😉
This money & effort could all have been invested in business or actually fixing the real problems the country faces.
To top it all off the deal we end up with will make no one happy!
the seemingly muted reaction of U.K. firms feeds a narrative that Brexit uncertainty is doing a lot less damage than anticipated
So we are in a situation where even the uncertainty is doing 2/3 of the damage predicted for actually leaving - and you are presenting that as positive? Insane.
Also THM, there is a massive moral difference between a forecast and a lie. If you can't grasp this then you certainly aren't someone I'd do business with.
The feeling is mutual. If we can’t accept that we lied too then we are as bad/worse than Brexiters. I wouldn’t want to do business with people like that either
blinkers won’t change the result
Which lies are you referring to, THM? Can you give us some examples please?
Go on THM - what lies were told by the remain side?
so far everything I have seen predicted has happened or is going to happen bar the big increase in unemployment and there are other rasons for that ( assult on benefits, risse in part time / insecure work)
Lets just list some of the adverse effects so far - and we haven't even left yet.
Massive damage to our pharmaceutical industry
Massive recruitment issues in the NHS
Lots of finance jobs going - yes its proven and all available - your denial of this shows your ignorance
Loss of inward investment on a huge scale, manufacturers like airbus pulling out of the UK
Billions spent on Brexit that could have been spent on useful stuff
Big hit to GDP
Etc etc
So go on - where are the lies from the remain side?
The REAL big hitters join the debate…
and if mumsnet don't get to vote on it, the language will be dreadful.
Lies about what would happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave. Quoted many times *
HM T and BoE made to look more than a little silly and less and less independent.
If we can’t accept that we lied too then we are as bad/worse than Brexiters.
Who are "we" … are you referring to the previous Conservative government? That summary I posted from their propaganda pamphlet seems pretty spot on. We did "know what we were voting for" after all… except, of course, it was all dismissed as "project fear" by the political smart Brexit campaign leaders, or, indeed, "lies" by those prone to hyperbole when posting things on the internet.
Lies about what would happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave.
Worst case predictions about what could happen to the economy immediately after a vote to leave, I think you mean. Gov publications had a range of outcomes, and were broadly correct (see OBR reports). Loudly shouting about the worst case predictions at one end of the scale is like Boris claiming that comments on security and stability were threatening WWIII if we Leave.
Bit of a warm up for what is to come
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/import-tax-from-australia/
THM - what lies are those? go on - be specific because everything predicted has happened so far and remember - we have not left yet and its only in the last month or two that the realisation that no deal is possible with May at the helm has become appraent
so go on. lets see the quotes from the treasury and BoE that have not come true. Put up or shut up
Oh please. Go back to the kilfile.
I think we can all agree there were claims from both sides that were designed to scared the populace. While the extremes have not come true there are currently more negatives than positives.
from what we have already lost it will take tens if not hundreds of billions to get us back to the 2016 point. Be this the new gps system or the recreation of a new medicines agency, staffing, reputation building then implementation. All this with an economy that is predicted to perform worse.
in order to do this the country needs to radically change. If I am honest copying the American or EU model probably won’t work. The only way I could see to quickly generate that kind of change would be to go to the old school 5 year plan method. Hey on the plus side there would be no debts to worry about but on the downside you would lose your savings property and shiney things. Again on the plus side is everyone would be equal and employment guaranteed...
but to be serious we ****ed. Generations will have to have less in order to stabilise the country and I don’t think there is the stomach for significant change
I think THM is being disingenuous here and playing semantics, in much the same way as the people who said the sign on the bus "didn't really mean the NHS would actually GET any extra money". Saying that something negative will happen if "you vote leave", in no way implies that those effects will happen immediately after the vote, but rather, they may happen following the "leave event" that is the result of the vote. And since we have not reached that event then not a single prediction made has yet to have any validity. So let us stop with the arguing about what may or may not be happening as a result of the vote, and just look at all the positives* that have occurred so far, and how those trends may continue when we do actually leave...
*or not as the case may be 🙂