On the contrary woppit, the predictions were made about what would happen immediately after the vote and without any reference to the timing of A50 or our leaving.
mol, the biggest losers from the loss of passporting will be the EU corporates and households who source 40-70% of their financial needs from London. The supply of finance will reduce and its cost will rise. Hence the EU describe acknowledge that this is not a zero sum game. The desire to get taxes from banks "trumps" the more important objective of ensuring a strong supply of finance at the correct price. Politicians!!!!
"Where are the customers' yachts"? The banks will continue to enjoy passporting rights through their European subsidiaries. They are all prepared barring the more domestic retail U.K. banks. The LT future depend on whether alternative financial centres are able to replicate their so-called financial ecosystem that means the London is currently the #1 centre for global finance. At the moment, none of the European centres come close which is one reason why banks have chosen to locate subsidiaries in different centres. Of course, this will change and London will respond too. Exciting to watch
May is now saying ” no compromise on Chequers” which makes no deal almost certain as the chequers plan simply is not possible or plausible.
The whole sentence actually reads
There will be no compromises on Chequers that are not in our national interest
That reads to me like there will indeed be compromises on the chequers plan?
[url= https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1874/42612571680_0517c6994e_o.jp g" target="_blank">https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1874/42612571680_0517c6994e_o.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
Anything past the tenth page is pretty much circular ‘discussion’
Some of us do try to talk about new events, but when we do (e.g. Panasonic decision) the noise starts up again.
Why can’t she stick to the agreements already reached on NI?
Becuase they protect companies and people working across the NI/I border at the expense of those working across the NI/rUK border, 'till a new permanent arrangement is put in place. There are real trade offs to be made here unfortunately, and when May made a decision on what they would be, the DUP and ERG made it clear it could not stand… and so the government rolled back on the decision… and that's where we've been stuck ever since. The standoff might still result in a general election before the exit date, in a hope that the deck of MPs gets shuffled in a clearer way. That's high risk stuff for the politicians involved though.
Oh look - more banks not moving into the EU and not worried at all
<p class="story-body__introduction">The chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland has warned that the bank may have to shed a number of business customers if there is no Brexit deal.</p>
Ross McEwan said 150 RBS staff had been deployed to Amsterdam to set up a new operation serving the bank's European customers ahead of a no-deal scenario.He said the bank was "preparing for the worst" and was still awaiting final approval on licences for the operation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-45387687
rhetorical question Kelvin. She is trying to wriggle out of the deal already struck for a backstop because the DUP are against it. While she remains in thrall to the DUP she cannot have an agreement on NI border that meets the needs of the GFI and previously agreed positions thus no brexit deal is possible
While she remains in thrall to the DUP she cannot have an agreement on NI border that meets the needs of the GFI and previously agreed positions thus no brexit deal is possible
Well she can but if she does she'll be kneecapped by Mogg & Johnston and the loony wing of the tory party.
I do not think the British people understood what they were voting for,
That didn't matter, they didn't like how it was and none of the political parties were helping it get better so what the hell let's see if getting out of the EU helps us. Very similar to the Trump vote for a lot of people.
People don't see politicians as people helping it to get better. Good example is the whole anti-semite Labour thing that is being dragged along by media and tories. The man on the street couldn't give a shit about there possibly being some anti-semtici people within the labour party membership yet that is all we have seen for weeks and weeks.
The man on the street couldn’t give a shit about there possibly being some anti-semtici people within the labour party membership yet that is all we have seen for weeks and weeks
yep must admit didn’t really get that anti-semitism was still a ‘thing’.
Tbh before they started banging on about an eu referendum I don’t think i ever had a conversation with anyone about it in my life, other than the odd Sun look how silly the rules are.
The Japanese companies invested in the U.K. to take advantage of our EU membership.
Aircraft carrier U.K. (at least for the car side) without deals why bother just relocate 13 to 100 miles to the right.
Banking if you can’t deal with the EU cheaply then it’s the same relocate 13 to 100 miles right and off you go.
Businesses don’t care about people or Brexit they just need to do business efficiently.
Does Tata give a flying fk whether an Evoke is made in the U.K. if it ends up costing 30% more it won’t be made here.
(sorry to rant but May and her merry bunch doing a jig with and all we’ll have a deal with people who’ll probably couldn’t buy a wing mirror for a effing evoke with a years wages)
The media can't get Corbyn on his policies as no one knows what they are and they guys across from him are lighting fireworks and throwing them at each other.
Ragging on people sells papers. This is what they have on offer at the moment
Yeah, I'm no fan of corbyn but the antisemitism thing seems to be mostly spin on taking the position that Palestinians are being oppressed by Israel. Given that Israel is mostly Jewish it must be antisemitism. Typical media spin mostly.
150 staff - a very small number. No flood of bankers leaving London. Banks simply making the necessary changes in advance. No need for doomsday scaremongering clearly.
No flood of bankers leaving London.
Hmm a lot of London banks have offices around Europe which they are recruiting for whilst not replacing UK based workers that leave through natural staff turnover.
And we've not actually left yet... Almost all multinationals are already making signs now by winding up operations in the UK through similar passive means.
The actual axing will start after March unless the status quo is maintained.
On the contrary we have French banks hiring in London to take advantage of anyone being distracted by the noise. HSBC has 10,0000 staff in its main Canary Wharf office and many more in the nearby offices. Cant recall RBS total staff numbers but the context is clear. 150 is a small number
No floods, no wind ups. No panic.
teamhurtmore
...No floods, no wind ups. No panic.
Well, that is good news.
Why is it not getting prominence in the media?
Why would they give prominence to a trickle? It’s largely a non story.
8500 in Canary Wharf according to HSBC.
BNP Parisbas assessment of post brexit sounds great; "We believe that precisely at the moment where the UK may be more isolated than in the past, it will be more important than ever for UK corporates to have a core continental bank with them." So they seem to be exploiting predicted brexit problems
And hiring in London at this moment. Winding up
good to Barnier up to his usual tricks.
That's nothing to be exited about .. Unemployment rules don't kick in until 2 years service and even then you only get 1 weeks pay per year served so when things go titddies up they can just be made redundant.
Anyone in fin services is well aware of that. Still does not change the fact that the wind down thesis is easily falsified as is the flood of bankers.
I am glad you are here THM to tell those banks what to do for Brexit.
Were you on holiday in 2007/2008 when they lost all those millions ?
Thats 150 more jobs lost at RBS - not 150 in total. Its in addition to those already moved or announced to move
More good news which shows everything is going splendidly, there is no damage from brexit and Mays goons are doing splendidly
Britain’s leading role in evaluating new medicines for sale to patients across the EU has collapsed with no more work coming from Europe because of Brexit, it has emerged.
The decision by the European Medicines Agency to cut Britain out of its contracts seven months ahead of Brexit is a devastating blow to British pharmaceutical companies already reeling from the loss of the EMA’s HQ in London and with it 900 jobs.
Still - blue passports!
Not lost. Moved. I’ve done it many times. You should try it.
1%
if it were my kids, I would tell them to jump at the opportunity. I did and loved it. That’s why I encouraged them to become fluent in a European language. Prepare for the...
given the low numbers (1-2%) involved the competition might be tough to get the postings though
Sorry, I've been away this weekend. A reply from the previous page:
@mods who also post as ‘users’. I don’t like suggesting this, but are you able to start each post with a quick indicator as to which ‘mode’ you are in (I know I’ve seen you do this on occasion).
I do try and do this but don't always remember. As a rule of thumb I'm generally posting as a user, and if I don't explicitly specify otherwise then I'd hope it was abundantly clear when I wasn't.
I take great pains not to conflate the roles or 'abuse my position.' And I take it somewhat personally when "yes but mod" is used as an argument. If that accusation held any water we'd just be instabanning anyone ever who disagreed with us, which is demonstrably not true.
What grown ups don’t do it throw their toys out the pram, disappear off the forum for months then come back and behave like a petulant child.
To be fair to THM, his forum absence wasn't voluntary. His account went tits-up following a temporary ban and we couldn't work out how to unlock it. There's some weird quirk of the new forum which means this happens occasionally, I'm not sure why (and the admin tools are very different from previously which doesn't help).
He'd probably have been back earlier, but the number of emails he sent us over time calling us liars and various other endearing comments meant that no-one was in a particular hurry to get around to investing any time into working out WTF was going on with it. The reason he's back at all now is because I eventually managed to unpick it.
It really is just an unmitigated disaster.
I look forward to French Cornish Pasties also.
the number of emails he sent us over time calling us liars and various other endearing comments meant that no-one was in a particular hurry to get around to investing any time into working out WTF was going on with it
Outstanding 😂
I never thought I'd see the day when someone sang the praises of american cheese.
Briexit?
EUdam?
Brits could be free to eat tasty & cheaper Halloumi & Feta made in America
From cows reared in enormous warehouses, spewing effluent.
UK farmers will be free to go out of business.
I never thought I’d see the day when someone sang the praises of american cheese.
I'm sure it depends on what you stand to gain from the situation. Not sure how else Brexit stacks up for people.
Outstanding indeed bob. An outstandingly privileged half-account. But there we go 😳
Outstanding indeed bob. An outstandingly privileged half-account. But there we go
If you've been misrepresented then you could easily prove it by publishing the relevant email exchanges.
Brexiters have been out this weekend trying to slag off chequers,
May has said definitely no second ref
Barnier forced to point out for the 1000th time in the last 2 years that 4 freedoms are indivisible.......
so that leaves no deal or Canada style FTA deal, but weve got 7 months to pull that off, & May seems determined to push her unworkable plan....
the brexiteers know that they will own the shitshow, but are desperately trying to pretend theyve got something better to offer... 
Brits could be free to eat tasty & cheaper Halloumi & Feta made in America says Marcus Fysh
From animals that are fed a grain, corn and soy based diet along with an ever increasing excessive use of antibiotics and growth hormones which is totally unnatural and leads to additional health problems. Tell you what fysh you obnoxious little ****stain i'll place you in a pen where you cannot lie down nor turn around and never see the light of day whilst feeding you grain, soy, corn and high fructose corn syrup solution, perhaps i'll inject you with totally unnecessary antibiotics and growth hormones till you become so bloated and put on so much weight that your legs buckle then once you have served your purpose i'll attach a rope around your legs and drag you out of the pen and despatch you with a electric stun gun, or if you are lucky i'll shoot a bolt through your brain stem to paralyse you before stringing you up and leeching the blood from your body as your heart continues to pump.
Actually that sounds like a damn fine punishment for the likes of Marcus Fysh, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove etc...etc.
His account went tits-up following a temporary ban and we couldn’t work out how to unlock it. There’s some weird quirk of the new forum which means this happens occasionally, I’m not sure why.
Perhaps the servers achieved sentience over the summer holidays and took a quick look at the thread?
Is that the best a professional snapper can make Boris look for his column photograph? He looks like he's about to keel over.
Boris certainly has the best sound bites - tanks and white flags fluttering. I'll bet his cheerleaders are feeling excited this morning.
No plans I notice - maybe I missed that bit.
Tory SEL's criticism of chequers plan is patriotic
EU criticism of chequers plan is theats and trying to punish us.
But tell you what borris come up with a better one.
No plans I notice – maybe I missed that bit.
We've been over this before.
The leavers are the big-idea, blue-sky thinking, big-picture kind of people.
It's the remainers' job to figure out all the details. The reason it's all going to badly is because they've been failing to get on-board with the vision.
50% staff turnover at DExEU in 2 years. I wonder if they aren't grown up enough? Although given the average age in the dept is now 32 it might be the grow ups that are leaving. I wonder why?
I wonder if they aren’t grown up enough?
Some great, experienced, minds have risked careers to avoid being sucked into that non-department. I know someone who had to answer directly to Boris on a day to day basis, and even that was a price worth paying according to him.
No plans I notice
Obviously. But don't dare to suggest that those non-existent plans don't have the full, complete, decisive backing of the British public. We know what we voted for, and we haven't changed our minds, and are still fully behind whatever it is that's not in whichever non-plan your favourite political failure hasn't drawn up.
‘Plans’, eh?
Heard Damian ‘Hard Drive’ Green on R4 this morning moaning that Michel Barnier, amongst others, didn’t have ‘a plan’...
WTF does Barnier need a plan for? Why doesn’t a high ranking government minister still not get that THE U.K. IS LEAVING THE EU, not the other way round?
Oh, and the Fat Buffoon in today’s Telegraph is couching the whole process as a ‘victory’ that needs to be ‘won’ because the EU is winning the ‘battle’ to which the U.K. has already ‘waved a white flag’.
There’s no hope for you I’m afraid. To quote Douglas Adams - they’re all ‘a bunch of useless bloody loonies’, seemingly still not out of nappies that they should have left behind fifty years or more ago.
Spreadsheet Phil is the only sensible voice amongst the lot of them, but that’s because he doesn’t see himself as some sort of puffed-up political rock star looking for glory...
I have an image of the EU negotiators just sitting there, face-palming and shaking their heads in bemused wonder at the ragbag of halfwits with who they are trying to work.
Some polling came out over the weekend. After brexit -
Majority in Scotland backs Indy
Majority in NI back a United Ireland.
At least I have a way out without having to move to Germany.
Looks like it could be england and wales going it alone, sailing the ship brittania down the water....but the tide is out and they are beached on a sandbar, sooner that happens the better.
Boris bumping his gums again.
Always telling that he can never offer an actual solution or plan of his own, he can only criticise everyone else.
Looks like it could be england and wales going it alone
I think that alone would boost the polling for IndyWales. And then if the shit starts to hit the fan it'll boost it even more. Especially if Scotland manages to join the EU and does well.
Scotland as an EU member would pick up a lot of Anglophone EU headquarters too I reckon.
Barnier once again making it 100% clear that the chequers plan is a non starter
Not sure I can see a way out of this for the govt. They (we) really are in a sticky situation.
<div class="bbp-reply-author">somafunk
<div class="bbp-author-role">
<div class="">Subscriber</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bbp-reply-content">
Looks like it could be england and wales going it alone
Everyone will be welcome to join the new nation of Great Norn Irn, Scotland, Cornwall, London, and Yarkshire. Except the Welsh, splittin bastards.
</div>
They (we) really are in a sticky situation.
Radio today seemed to be full of Conservative MPs telling us that many Brexit supporters are against the PM's impossible plan. They each then laid out very broad, and contradictory, ideas of what they would rather see… each of which, of course, many Brexit supporters would also be against. And around we go.
There is no plan for Brexit that is more popular with the British voters than remaining a member of the EU.
Edit: I was tempted to say "no achievable plan"… but the truth is, there doesn't even seem to be a single "unicorn and cake plan" that would receive majority support from "the people".
Barnier once again making it 100% clear that the chequers plan is a non starter
That was obvious the minute the plan was announced yet the tories are still squabbling about it without actually realizing that it won't go anywhere anyway even if they all agreed on it.
Not sure I can see a way out of this for the govt. They (we) really are in a sticky situation.
If this is all about democracy as suggested then why not stick all the proposals on a ballot paper and let the public decide. Including the obvious option to scrap the whole thing and stay I EU.
Not that this should ever have been put to the public vote in the first place..
I've often wondered if, when it all goes wrong and we are all considerably worse off, I will be able to sue those who told blatant lies to being us to this point.
I'm beginning to think a 2nd ref is the *only* way out.
That way, whatever gets decided, it has public support by definition.
I will be able to sue those who told blatant lies to being us to this point.
Imteresting question. Ministerial responsibility is for the department so they get sacked for failures within this. There is a notion of ministerial accountability after the arms to Iraq inquiry but I am not so sure that would apply.
when they campaigned they were not representing the government as their position was remain but acting as individuals(?)
can you sue them for mis selling? Is lying for votes illegal? Could you reasonably expect that the “promises” were guaranteed and there was some kind of contract? Verbal or otherwise... would have far reaching implications...
will be able to sue those who told blatant lies to being us to this point.
Splendid. £350,000,000 and costs?
Where’s THM, BTW?
;">I will be able to sue those who told blatant lies to being us to this point.</span>
I had discussion along this line with the Electoral Commission. Short answer - advisory referendum = up to the government what it does with the result. So those on the official campaigns could lie without accountability and blame the government for what it did later. Still, apparently that's democracy.
Not sure I can see a way out of this for the govt. They (we) really are in a sticky situation.
Well the EU aren't budging on the Irish boarder issue and rightly so.
The backstop should have no imposed time limit for good reason... There is no other way to square that circle.
Hard brexit would mean a hard boarder in NI or NI leaving the UK.
So we'll have some sort of extension to keep every thing as it it... So we're looking at BRINO as a worst case scenario, at least in the short to medium term.
Justine greening pointing out that chequers deal is polling considerably more unpopular than the Poll tax.....
Justine greening pointing out that chequers deal is polling considerably more unpopular than the Poll tax…..
1) it isn't a deal
2) any other proposed plan for replacing EU membership, written down, so that could it be scrutinised, would also be "unpopular"
Would anyone care to opine how an international trade agreement might take to agree? I know Canada & the EU took nearly 8 yrs.
I looked at this from the WEF
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/how-long-do-trade-deals-take-after-brexit/
I guesstimated with a highly accurate & scientific process that it might take about 3-4 yrs going on the averages from the table in the link.
Any thoughts?
"Any thoughts?"
We're going to have to stockpile a lot of bananas?
I guesstimated with a highly accurate & scientific process that it might take about 3-4 yrs going on the averages from the table in the link.
Any thoughts?
4 years launch to implantation was the average but that depends how quickly you agree on things and how close you are to start with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership
This was the last attempt, fair to assume it will be coming back fairly similar with EU replaced with UK?
This is a case where a no deal can actually be better than a bad deal!
So Mogg now says that the ‘Canada’ deal is fine. Maybot says the Chequers plan is the only way forward. The Blonde Buffoon doesn’t have any idea what would work except that he knows what he doesn’t like.
Rudd just said the Chequers deal is the only way forward (the EU have already said it’s a no go)...
So... “Brexit means”...er, what, exactly?
Brexit!
What do I win?
What do I win?
Job as the UK chief negotiator and scapegoat for boris and co.
Want to reconsider your answer?
We can sue the Treasury? Wow...
Job as the UK chief negotiator and scapegoat for boris and co.
Oh shit, hadn't thought of that. Guess I'd better just get in line like a good tory and lap up whatever Mummy serves.
We can sue the Treasury? Wow…
Is this about the squirrel problem again?
No apparently the latest wheeze is to sue those who lied to us. They told some real porkies (arguably under pressure from politicians if you don't believe HMT is independent) So is it their fault or the politicians who asked them to make the fear stories up?
What about the THM lie that the govt predicted 24.4% growth from brexit? Was it written on a bus?
No it's all in their document. But not in the untrue way you describe obviously. Amazed you still haven't found it.
Amazed you still haven’t found it.
#StillDoesn'tKnowHowToLink