Like brexiters you can’t debate that stuff
Sigh - what kind of poll - what sampling method - when was the sample taken - what was the question asked - when was it published … or a simple link to the source will do.
Can't see the problem with Grimsby, they decide to vote and then suggest a way to make the change stressfree - seems remarkably sensible to me - shame more aren't being proactive like this.
You see THM the problem here is it's a moving conversation, when you say things like Mikes link when talking about polling it could have been the stuff I posted a bit back about actual polling. Try using the quote function and links to help people put the random text in context.
Ah, found it … maybe … self selective poll, if it's the same one.
https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/local-news/how-would-you-vote-another-1816552
I can't see the sample size, or time period.
Where are the "do not knows'?
Still, 6% support the government's proposed deal. Everything is going great.
If you want Grimsby specific polling then it is probably good to review their local paper which you linked to. Likewise if you want facts and figures about the additional £300 million of aid announced today - go to the gov.uk site for the relevant department.
Can’t see the problem with Grimsby, they decide to vote and then suggest a way to make the change stressfree – seems remarkably sensible to me – shame more are being proactive like this.
Some of us are, we tell the mail and express we left, tell the EU we didn't mean it and then stop everyone with a blue passport leaving the country
Bring on the Christian Brotherhood of Shills.
No, same paper just not a story from 9 months ago
Plus, in July they also reported that 77% of their readers did not believe in a second referendum. Seems like you have a lot of persuading to do.
So pondos claim three pages back is easy to falsify, it would appear.
Is is this it? Grimsby 51% leave. Somewhat softening its position then?
A marginal 51 per cent of those who voted say they would vote leave, with 49 per cent in camp remain.
However, nine per cent of people who voted leave say they would now vote to remain in the EU.
So piss poor use of polling there but if that reads right it's a swing of 4.5-5% in 12 months which is significant when put in the perspective of a 52/48 result with the turnout there was.
Or not if you really don't want to talk about it
The editor of the Grimsby Telegraph is going to be delighted with all the new hits to GrimsbyLive. Will we now get spammed by fish shops >>>>>>
Can’t see the problem with Grimsby, they decide to vote and then suggest a way to make the change stressfree – seems remarkably sensible to me
No - what they want is Brexit and for everyone to suffer the consequences BUT them.
Bloody elites. All the same...
The editor of the Grimsby Telegraph is going to be delighted with all the new hits to GrimsbyLive.
Oh the ironing.
Well the Grimsby Telegraph does seem to have conveyed more than some today 🙂
I will let you take your own responsibility for it.
Burden of proof.
C'mon, THM, you're surely better than that. "Do your own research" is the argument of the conspiracy theorist.
Nah, reading made up versions is much more entertaining that the realities of the government website (oops mentioned that twice now, as mefty did too).
Does our friend jive refer to the government website too? (dann thats three times) Wow, better wade through the cain thread abuse and see what he's saying these days?
Cougar, are you still bellyaching about the advisory referendum or have you now accepted that became completely irrelevant as soon as our elected representatives voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50?
mefty did too
I think I got away with it.
No – what they want is Brexit and for everyone to suffer the consequences BUT them.
That's rather uncharitable, I am sure they believe Brexit offers the whole country great opportunties providing they are willing to look for them.
It's uncharitable of the Grimsby fish industry to seek special dispensation not to suffer the effects of Brexit.
Cougar, are you still bellyaching about the advisory referendum or have you now accepted that became completely irrelevant as soon as our elected representatives voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50?
I think it should be the other way round - the vote should never have been put to the public in the first place and the results in no way reflected what our electes officials professed to believe, but the vote to trigger article 50 was skewed beyond belief, reflecting neither public nor government opinion.
I'd post links to support my view but of course that's no longer required as we all have Google.
They are just asking for an extension to them of a regime that already Southampton, Liverpool, Tillbury etc benefit from
skewed beyond belief
Indeed it was skewed by the advice they received from the country.
Indeed it was skewed by the advice they received from the country.
I don't know WHAT it was skewed by, but the vote reflected neither MPs pre-Brexit views nor the views of the electorate.
I think I got away with it.
Not really just moves you towards time waster troll territory, I mean imagine not wanting to just make it easy for people to follow what you are trying to say. Bit shit that really, much easier to avoid any confusion and just paste a link. Then we can all make sure we are talking about the same stuff and not get confused there. Unless that's what you pair are trying to do.
Anyway can't wait for more tales from the magic money tree tomorrow
time waster troll territory
Thanks for your kind invitation to your club, but my views mirror Groucho Marx's.
Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others.
Fits with the average Tory remainer-cum-quitling very nicely indeed.
That reveals a previously hidden touch of wit - very good
lol, even I have to laugh at the sad figure of Mrs May going round third world countries drumming up business. But hey its a start..
I'm not sure I'd say it's a start ..getting someone to say "hey if the price is right we'll buy it" isn't the problem or challenge for a trade deal it is what they want in return. When we go to the next country and were the one giving away 4Bn what will the next trade block ask for?
We already know what India wants, they were pretty up front and it's easier immigration to the UK... but I don't think that is something the 'majority' of Brexit voters want?
as soon as our elected representatives voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50?
I am not sure you have thought that one through properly. Are you in favour of them being able to vote in favour of rescinding it?
Hang on. So Grimsby wants to leave, but not lose an of the benefits of remaining. And we're meant to respect that position? Surely it's ridiculous?
Well the gNats tried it so why not the good folk of Grimsby. We gave both the vote too.
Gnats?
Sorry did I get the lower and upper cases mixed up
Gove has even managed to get a shout out for Brexit when congratulating Lewis Pugh!!
Can't wait to see how Gove protects the great British coastlines! Maybe stopping scallop fishing between certain times of the year like Macron... Oh wait.
Although interestingly the French fishermen are saying a no-deal Brexit would solve the problem from their perspective. Hopefully a grown-up will be along shortly to explain again why no-deal Brexit is just so awesome...
Hang on. So Grimsby wants to leave, but not lose an of the benefits of remaining. And we’re meant to respect that position? Surely it’s ridiculous?
It's not ridiculous for Grimsby though .... which is a microcosm of the whole mess.
Everyone else can PAY for Grimsby ... how/where money comes from to support it isn't Grimsby's problem ... if they take what jobs there are from Newcastle or somewhere else they would doubtless celebrate even if it cost 2 jobs for every new one created ...
It's only when you look bigger that how ridiculous this is sinks in.
At this stage anything other than pointing and laughing seems unnecessary.
Cougar, are you still bellyaching
Would you rather I shut up and got over it because I lost?
How very democratic of you.
I doubt that the people of Grimsby are doing that. They are probably more surprised that they won.
Pointing and laughing at us would be rubbing it in a bit too much
Oh how droll THM. Have you looked up those Govt economic analyses that you so badly misunderstood yet? Or are you still clinging to your nonsense claim that the 15-year GDP growth would only drop from 25% to 24.4% after brexit?
I think he prefers newspaper polls these days Captain, no idea which one as I have to Google them.
Yes. Are you still struggling with the maths? Sunday’s torygraoh - Jeremy Warner - makes the same point. Not sure is he’s an expert though. If not, should be ok to read
Not true drac. Seems only mefty and I bothered to look at the government website to understand the Africa news yesterday rather that post untruths instead. Quoting the GT was merely falsifying earlier misrepresentations of the truth
And quoted the gov survey earlier too (with its health warning) Missed out the bit in front of me now where they acknowledge that some forecasts suggest that we could see a 1.1% increase in GDP. The captain won’t like that...still he can just ignore it.
I read on the government website that we're going to see a 10% drop in GDP.
I'm not going to provide a link for that, of course. Do your own research.
No need I have their docs on the screen in front of me. Always do my own research - would be very dangerous to believe remoan untruths
one thing that is 1OO% sure they have not forecast a 1O% drop in GDP. We have discussed before whether you tell the truth or not. More evidence here...
I'm not struggling with the maths, I'm looking at the pretty picture on the Govt's own document which directly falsifies your fantasy. I'm sure you can google it.
No need I have their docs on the screen in front of me
Should be easy to post a link then....
Missed out the bit in front of me now where they acknowledge that some forecasts suggest that we could see a 1.1% increase in GDP. The captain won’t like that…still he can just ignore it.
No I'm very happy to see that they acknowledge uncertainty in the forecasts, with the figures ranging from +1.1 to -10% for the most optimistic EEA scenario (that the tories have of course ruled out with their silly red lines). "with a number of estimates clustered close to a 2% reduction".
So where did your 24.4% number come from then?
Even I'm getting bored of this bicker fest. Sort yourselves out FFS.
I'm off to argue about Fox Live Valve.
Indeed I posted their warnings pages back. But you are getting warmer. From their range of estimated you can see where the number comes from easily. Sounds like you are in the correct document. Independent research is fun isn’t it?
as a neutral observer 😉 itd be nice to see a link to said reports
There's a Tory Brexiteer on five live now saying that we all need to unite, get behind Brexit and be positive and optimistic!
Then she actually started a statement with, "this country won two world wars...."
Once again there were no details about anything we might unite behind to be positive and optimistic about (maybe another world war to win?), but that's just par for the course with these ****-wits! I just despair! These morons are actually wagging the Tory dog at the moment
Im assuming that THM still assumes that a deal will be struck?
Im not sure that May wasted too much time with lazy/vain/thick David Davis in the driving seat to give us a fighting chance at that
The brexit cost calculator for no deal, is huge, were already spending £100m or so on looking into a new GPS final cost ~£3bn & undoubtedly requiring help from Trump (SPACE FORCE!)
Stockpiling drugs to cost £2bn, Raab says customs set up £3.7bn, cost to business of no deal for customs up to £20bn (apparently) plus who knows what else?
all this spending sounds like its boom time for consultants, sadly the money should really be spent on repairing austerity's damage to the police, prisons, social care, redressing the apprenticiships collapse, training & education to find a way out of our productivity hole & dependence on immigrants & so on
You mean the "EU Exit Analysis Cross Whitehall Briefing"? It can be found by googling that phrase. The pic on p16 (and for that matter p18) might be what you are looking for.
Mistaking a percentage point reduction in GDP as a percentage reduction in GDP growth (ie, confusing 25% -> 23% as 25% -> 24.5%) is the sort of mistake a newbie who had no experience or understanding of what these calculations mean or how they are done might make. The press coverage is sometimes a bit ambiguous in how they report it. But there is no ambiguity in the actual analysis about what is really meant. It's right there in black and white. Or simple diagrams, if you prefer.
Oh ok then
I don’t assume anything. Prepare for the worst (tick), hope for the best if a better strategy.
Looks like chances of no deal have increased. The EU will push us into a corner until the last moment and we shall see who blinks first. Given how split we are I expect that we will. So the mad caller has a point.
Once again there were no details about anything we might unite behind to be positive and optimistic about (maybe another world war to win?)
Perhaps that's their ultimate aim, once we have our "sovereignty" back!
Then she actually started a statement with, “this country won two world wars….”
Beautiful symptom of the problem, right there.
"This country" won the war. Us, the mighty Great Britain. **** yeah! No acknowledgement (and probably little knowledge) of the involvement of the Soviet Union, the US, China, France, Australia... No, we did it, all on our own.
This brexiter , 'close your eyes & think of blighty' tactic is wearing thin, which is why John Curtice saying the public now looking to favour a 2nd ref
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/a-question-of-wording-another-look-at-polling-on-a-second-referendum/
I think Raabs shambling performance trying to put a +ve spin on no deal didnt help, ultimately it leaves the government backed into a corner, theyll have to blink first assuming that Mogg doesnt come back from his summer hols all fired up & boots May out as we prepare to cede a big chunk of sovereignity to the EU
I don’t assume anything. Prepare for the worst (tick), hope for the best if a better strategy.
There is nothing wrong with assumption, working without assumption is a very rigid and detrimental way of thinking.
So long as you declare and understand assumptions they are very valid, like references.
Agreed. Making assumptions is not the same thing assuming something. In fact quite the opposite in this case.
How you going with references there...
Fine. You?
Sod your 2nd referendum on brexit/english nationalism vote, i want another scottish referendum vote on independence as the longer this brexit farce rumbles on, the more people in scotland are beginning to realise that the westminster parliament is not fit for purpose.
Said with a smidgeon of tongue in cheek healthy jesting btw.
Much better I've actually managed to include some in my posts, it's remarkably easy so we can all make the assumption you don't want to do it just to be awkward.
But back on target as public opinion moves are we being disrespectful to those who changed their minds and those who voted remain now? Is the government in danger or alienating over 50% of the population by failing to consult properly? At what level would.it be acceptable to stop and check people are on board with the current (poorly defined shit or bust) plan.
Are people qualified to vote on such a complex issue (same caveats BTW and 670 pages of untruths is better than a bus)
all this spending sounds like its boom time for consultants,
Im sure there’s a fair few of these delighted to profit from the misfortune of others.
Opportunities not to be missed once they’ve protected themselves.
Are people qualified to vote on such a complex issue (same caveats BTW and 670 pages of untruths is better than a bus)
Do you think they should be allowed to vote on something so complex?
(We can all answer questions with questions)
So, in the case of no deal being offered, what do we think will happen?
1. No deal exit
2. Govt is offered and accepts Norway/SM/CU option
3. Second ref with multiple options
4. Government scraps Brexit altogether
A log of will of the people chanting, some gammons exploding, JRM calling for his nanny and some more tissues.
Some posters will suggest we can only have 1 & 2 (or whatever 2 becomes)
3 or 4 will have serious momentum the more the fantasies evaporate.
Yes to mike - it was a brilliant exercise in exposing the weakness in the Indy case and proved how sensible Scots are. Shame about our version
1 to mol (since your question roles out 2)
You really think 1 over the others?
Do you think the govt deal will soften towards Norway style.or will the hardliners prevent it?
So, in the case of no deal being offered, what do we think will happen?
If that's the case we surely have only two options? Leave anyway and suffer the fallout, or don't leave and suffer the fallout. The existence or not of another referendum is irrelevant, and some other deal isn't an option because otherwise we wouldn't be in a "no deal" scenario (unless I've misunderstood what you're saying).
Your option 2) there is the least damaging Leave option, but it's utterly pointless. It won't please the remainers (because we've still left) or the leavers (because we're still in all those other things). It gains us literally nothing other than probably being the option where the government loses face the least. It makes less sense than a no-deal exit, if we're going for a BINO then we might as well remain and keep a seat at the decision-making table, no-one with half a brain can think this is a preferable option to either remaining or leaving fully.
4 hopefully.
Whichever flavour of government we have, its first duty is protection of its citizens (not that I believe in the concept of citizenship as we have it nowadays, but we are where we are) and not just militarily.
The mob will scream and shout for a while but, y’know, tough love and all that.
Would your 3 have multiple options on both sides or merely be a tool to split the leave vote. So cougs said IIRC that he wants to be a member of a reformed EU. What about people who want membership and joining the Euro, the unreformed version. Or this but only if Macrons reforms are delivered? Or those in the CMD club? All different positions and “assumptions”.
It would be unfair to simply split one side.
So cougs said IIRC that he wants to be a member of a reformed EU. What about people who want membership and joining the Euro. Or those in the CMD club? All different positions. It would be unfair to simply split one side.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think you're right. Suppose it had to happen sooner or later.
Another referendum would surely have to be a carbon copy of the previous one. Once we know the terms of whatever deal we are or aren't getting, this should be presented to the public and then the same question posed again, leave or stay. Offering multiple options on either side just splits the vote and adds confusion.
NB: I'm not advocating another referendum, I think it's a stupid idea. But it may be inevitable at this point.
Mistaking a percentage point reduction in GDP as a percentage reduction in GDP growth (ie, confusing 25% -> 23% as 25% -> 24.5%) is the sort of mistake a newbie who had no experience or understanding of what these calculations mean or how they are done might make. The press coverage is sometimes a bit ambiguous in how they report it. But there is no ambiguity in the actual analysis about what is really meant. It’s right there in black and white. Or simple diagrams, if you prefer.
This is assuming that GDP is actually the most important thing.
I'd be more concerned on balance of trade deficit and having it positive before worrying about GDP.... but hey ho.
NB: I’m not advocating another referendum, I think it’s a stupid idea. But it may be inevitable at this point.
It would take a concerted force of honesty from may/Corbyn and a leading brexiter to say the deal offered does not satisfy leave or remain, and that a no deal exit would likely lead to xyz consequences so remain is the only sensible option for the country to avoid immediate calls for a second ref, a strong polling for remain (ie leave know the boat has sailed)
The only bit I don't have faith in is the honesty of the leaders.
I mean how bad does not the end of the world sound?
2) I reckon itll be a fudged Norway option, with some extras thrown in from the EU, so that May can paint it as some sort of victory
but if we get 1, then 3 may happen, 4 wont happen
“That” would be dishonest. They both stood in the GE on the mandate of ending the UKs membership of the EU.
And one is a conviction politician who is therefore to be believed. So I’m told. The other is progressing towards delivering the mandate. Tried to pitch a sensible FTA but didn’t get the backing. So we get what we deserve.
“That” would be dishonest. They both stood in the GE on the mandate of ending the UKs membership of the EU.
One of which would be Theresa May, leading Remain campaigner pre-referendum, yes? Just clarifying which bits of "honesty" you're cherry-picking here.
“That” would be dishonest. They both stood in the GE on the mandate of ending the UKs membership of the EU.
Politicians going back on manifesto promises due to 'circumstances' would hardly be unprecedented, and refusing to do so could even be considered highly foolish.