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How can you - we haven’t started negotiating the details yet? At least not in public
It's the "no deal" option. A deal won't be reached in the timescale set and don't forget "No deal is better than a bad deal".
Sigh - obvious troll line - boring us all away - yawn.
But neither is repeating the same arguments again and again, it is only productive to the extent it is cathartic. The debate needs to move on to be interesting, however moving the debate forwards is difficult for remainers as the pitch was queered by the Government in the campaign. Brexit was voted for inspite of dire Treasury forecasts of what would happen as a result of the vote - not leaving - whatever lumps in the road we face, it difficult to see those forecasts being better than reality.
Oh, and coffee shops.
Plus pubs. Wetherspoon for example wants to keep the supply of staff. Just wants to get rid of the things he doesnt fancy.
If the brexit elite get their way there are going to be lots of brexit voters regretting their choice when the things they voted for dont happen and the things they didnt expect do.
Which is why DD hasn’t said FOM unsurprisingly 😯
Oldmanmtb. The outcome obviously depends on what deal we have!! Just spent 90mins talking to a German on different scenarios!!
Will respond on train later. But generally no^4 but many voters do not have - what’s the term here - a narrow economic focus or focus on money. Other things are more important to them - remember what the Scots said about taking control and being in charge of their own destiny 😉
(including making lots of things up)
Another irony meter bites the dust.
They don’t understand, far too complex for their feeble little minds.
See the making stuff up bit. Aside from the geniuses like yourself any of us mere mortals will generally admit to the fact the decision we made, either way, is imperfect due to not having the time to gather truly impartial information and then understand it.
Saying someone is feeble minded would be unfair (in most cases) but saying that they didnt have the information to make a rational decision isnt.
Remember we arent Homo economicus but instead mere mortals.
Its just I don't want them making decisions.
How very dare they have a say. Let’s introduce IQ apartheid instead!
How very dare they have a say. Let’s introduce IQ apartheid instead!
I hope you can tell I was being somewhat facetious. In all seriousness it's not 100% effective by a long shot but in general people that are good at X tend to move up the field of X. I don't get structural engineering advice from my dentist so the idea of asking everyone on a complex economic political union is silly. Then take the result that is won by a margin that is so small it could swing either way that much over a few days,( I.e. you could consider it within as noise.) As a strong mandate is even sillier. All you can conclude from the result is division.
It's face palm after face palm.
teamhurtmore - MemberThe war cry of the remoaners - do everything we can (including making lots of things up) to ensure that the result is ignored. The people, sorry the thickos, must not be respected. They don’t understand, far too complex for their feeble little minds.
Posted 2 hours ago # Report-Post
Pretty much, yes. That's a neat summary of my view. I'm not apologising for it, though.
slowoldman - MemberWell I'm beginning to understand what this red white and blue Brexit is going to look like.
Posted 2 hours ago # Report-Post
Yes - it's going to be brown, in massive quantities.
How very dare they have a say. Let’s introduce IQ apartheid instead!
It's got nothing to do with IQ. It's not a question of intellectual snobbery. You think it is, but it really isn't.
It's just that most people, as you acknowledged, don't have all the facts. So how the hell can you make a balanced decision without facts?
You think it is, but it really isn't.
I am not sure they do. Its just a convenient straw man to throw out to try and confuse things.
Looks like I missed a fun day
I'd like to propose that those calling "intellectual snobbery" should get their health problems treated by their garage mechanics and their cars fixed by their GPs.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anna-soubry-threats-brexit-mutineer-police-report-tory-mp-rebel-daily-telegraph-a8056441.html ]On a positive note, it’s nice to see the return of the death threats, to accompany the Orwellian Nationalistic newspaper headlines. I’m sure we’ve all missed those[/url]
Just spent 90mins talking to a German on different scenarios!!
Do share, I suspect you do have things you could contribute to the forum, THM, but are only here to take the Micky.
Says a man who posts untrue stuff on a constant and consistent basis 😯 and without smileys
FWIW. Very scared about hard Brexit.
I'd like to propose that those calling "intellectual snobbery" should get their health problems treated by their garage mechanics and their cars fixed by their GPs.
Ah, but doctors and mechanics generally have a track record of success, governments less so.
Looks like I missed a fun day
Yep! Mr Logic on fine form 🙂
Read back, THM, you've been called out yourself within the last week for claiming progress and that trade talks would be under way shortly with absolutely nothing to substantiate that claim.
Feel free to link or quote any mistruths I've posted on this thread with page numbers if you just quote.
Do we want 2000 pages that quickly?
I don’t have 24 hours to post you funnies. It would be quicker to post things that were true
Both sides have noted progress - albeit slow - with reference to discussions on trade. So you are off again!
Next thing your partner will be on about untruths and the City of London - remember those nasty bankers you hate so much but are about to decamp on mass (or not). Formez vos bataillons!!
Formez vos bataillons!!
"Jog-on, Jog-on......."
8)
Two misquotes do not a lie make.
Xenophobia from you then, Dannyh.
Ah, but doctors and mechanics generally have a track record of success, governments less so.
How would you measure that?
Since depending on your measurement.
Lack of complete anarchy for example governments do quite well.
Doctors do quite badly at keeping people alive for eternity.
I read the letters page in The Metro with despair today.
The consensus there (as selected by the DMG Media group naturally) was that we all need to get behind David Davis and crew to secure the best possible deal for Britain.
No particular problem with that as a sentiment - but the suggested implementation of [i]"getting behind them"[/i] seemed to involve removing all scrutiny of proceedings and allowing them to agree whatever they want without any fear of criticism from "traitorous" parliament, citizens or media.
That terrifies me.
As at least two of you are using French today here's a link to read which backs up one of the points of was making that THM calls a lie:
It is indeed worrying that holding the govt to democratic account - some may call that bringing back control - is now seen as traitorous
[quote=Edukator ]Two misquotes do not a lie make.
Dont worry he will do hundreds of them interspersed with a lecture on how we bullied his friend who had no facts.....[perhaps we should have been as polite to him as he is to you [ not that I agree with his claim you are a lair]] its just part of the troll he has become on this thread to try and provoke the sort of reaction he gave Zokes - odd he dislikes it so much yet cannot stop himself being the worst example of it
Exits thread as it looks like its no tin danger of breaking into a grown up debate whist we all feed troll boy
Exits thread as it looks like its no tin danger of breaking into a grown up debate whist we all feed troll boy
Good move. I need a guitar thread or eco thread to remind me why this place is worth logging on to.
steady on no we cannot really leave then the bully will have won so we have to stay to witness his lament against bullying and rudeness via the medium of being a rude bully.
The worst thing is that this is all true
I tried ignoring the rudeness, I've been pointing it out for a while, it's time for another tack. I dropped out for a couple of weeks and was greeted with heightened level of sneering on return. I'm not going for the TJ solution of blocking but just contibuting links without comment to the thread is the next approach. I'll see how that works. Plenty of other threads with good will, no need to hang out in this one.
Very scared about hard Brexit.
How likely do you think it is THM?
I'll answer for him mol:
[i]"Yes."[/i]
😉
Less than a deal. Frau Compromise will save the day!!
But only after a lot of noise
Ed, you simply posted stuff that was untrue. To coin your phrase you got called out by more than one person and then tried to play the victim card 😯
he wont reply to me ever and for some reason he views this bliss like arrangement as a punishment - he is not the brightest is he 😉
I would tend to go for ignorance but too many folk feed him to make that possible but if we did there is the possibility if a debate breaking out about the issue and then less of this sort of pointless shit [ including what i type as well]
thing is any deal is a not a hard brexit if by hard you mean no deal and some sort of trade
the problem is before the vote was won all they discussed [ in the main] was a super soft deal of free trade remaining and us being out =- ie pretty much staying in the CU or some such - that wont happen so one could argue any deal is going to be hard - though not as hard as a true WTO hard brexit
How about -
soft brexit - what they campaigned for and no one is trying to achieve now
Hard brexit - what we are going to get
Suicidal Brexit - what wont happen happen [ probably]
Who knows debate might just break out now
Edukator - Reformed Troll
Xenophobia from you then, Dannyh.POSTED 1 HOUR AGO # REPORT-POST
You've got me worried now. Please don't tell me the "jog-on, jog-on" thing is a known footy hooligan chant or something(?)
I genuinely thought it was an amusing pun and expressive of my attitude to THM, seems it might have a bit of a double meaning......
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Jog%20on
Anyhow don't worry, danny, I'll take it no slight was intended and you weren't adding to THM's taunt. No worries.
I genuinely thought it was an amusing pun and expressive of my attitude to THM, seems it might have a bit of a double meaning
I thought it was funny too
It's just that most people, as you acknowledged, don't have all the facts. So how the hell can you make a balanced decision without facts?
You cannot mol. But when do you ever have all the facts? Never.
When this thread started I was one of the few people who argued that is was absurd since we had no idea what that EU would look like in the future other than it’s current format was unsustainable. I do not recall may others arguing against the idea though. They dived pretty much straight into the debate
Ditto the Indy debate. Many clearly swallowed the Indy lies hook line and sinker including basic issues on what money they would use or more realistically wouldn’t use. Wee eck lied through his teeth in a way that the Brexshiteers could only dream off. Ignoring that, many boasted that economic suffering was a price well worth paying for the joy of being free from the dreaded English. Where were the calls then that the vote shouldn’t happen because large numbers showed that they were incapable of rational decisions. Nowhere and rightly so.
So it’s disingenuous in the extreme to play the thicko card now just because the other side won
Oldman - the answers to the four questions are totally dependent on the type of deal we end up with. Could be 4 no’s could be 4 yes’s. One thing for sure, if we keep swallowing the EU tactics it will be 4 No’s for sure
THM the folk i mentioned primarily voted to leave based on the bollocks fed to them?
So let's assume a no deal/wto exit? Then how will those people do?
It's like any major conflict of interest the piss poor pay the price....
it's disingenuous in the extreme to claim that a 52/48 scenario is definitive. People may well have changed/change their mind when the facts are known, ie when the deal is done.So it’s disingenuous in the extreme to play the thicko card now just because the other side won
Why are you so against putting the deal back to the public? We both agree they can be trusted.
Where's the democracy in forcing people down a path they may no longer want to go down?
Badly. Not sure conflict of interest is correct but your conclusion is.
Hard brexit: 2019 GDP probably -1% (not the very silly numbers th remoaners come up with), £ weaker, interest rates up as imported inflation rises. So weak wage growth (-ve in real terms) and job losses too. Not a great story really is it?
Still talking about money and economics is all terribly
narrow-minded when more important issues are at stake 😉
No response to the obvious democratic fudge that's happening, thm?
You took the huff with me? 😆
No, supper and peaky blinders instead
I don’t think there will be a democratic fudge. Brexit will happen (most likely)
Hard brexit: 2019 GDP probably -1%
As an ongoing trend, or just as a 2019 blip due to leaving that year?
Oops - an example of being careful what you wish for:
https://www.channel4.com/news/leave-voting-grimsby-accused-of-double-standards
Haha, maybe someone should tell Grimsby that brexit means brexit!
Blooming Leavmoaners: "You won, get over it" 😆
Just wondering, how many pro-Brexit MPs are receiving death threats?
I'm pretty sure the answer is zero, although they are being pilloried in an often witty way. Poor lambs.
It's almost like all the thugs and extremists are on one side............
Just remember we had a vote on [url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union#United_Kingdom.27s_European_Communities_membership.2C_1975 ]EU membership[/url] so why have all these people been allowed to subvert the will of the people for so long, Farage etc. should have been in the tower and his head on a pole by now.
#OneShotDemocracy
Hahah what a bunch of ****s, it was always goubg to be the north that would lose out from brexit. Londons too big too fail, Grimsby isn't.
Hard brexit: 2019 GDP probably -1%
Cite.
Oh, that's right, you just plucked a number out of your backside.
I dont post very often on this thread,but I do read it, and I thought you all might find this interesting, its an extract from a blog from neil woodfords fund management company, the full blog is here.
https://woodfordfunds.com/words/blog/brexit-where-are-we-now/
Ps - for full disclosure I voted for leave.
anyway, here's their view on it all (as of nov 8th 2017):-
"We expect a deal to be struck with the EU in the coming months. This report suggests that neither side can be entirely comfortable about the prospect of walking away from the table without an agreement, as do the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee notes released last month. These highlighted that £20 trillion of uncleared derivatives contracts, impacting tens of thousands of counterparties, were potentially at risk of disrupting the functioning of financial markets in the event of no deal. Nevertheless, the Capital Economics report indicates that even in the event of no deal, the long-term prospects for the UK economy are nowhere near as bleak as many have predicted.
That conclusion will surprise many people, if the results of our Twitter poll are anything to go by. Almost half of the 42,000 that voted believe that the UK economy is “facing a cliff-edge” as a result of Brexit. This negative consensual view is reflected in the UK stock market, helping to forge a compelling investment opportunity in domestically-focused stocks, which the funds are positioned to exploit. The Capital Economics report, which explores the key debates in detail, provides considerable grounds for optimism that the long-term outcomes for the UK economy will be far better than the alarmed consensus would suggest."
You’re brave Julians!!
Woodford may be coordinating things as the Economics for Free Trade group are also upping their narrative today. Bootle was first up in the Torygraph and Minford today. Publishing some non-consensus views. They will soon be bashed down!!
Then we had Dyson on Marr.
The Brexit boys trying to regain some ground in the current one way narrative. Some of the EFT assumptions are more realistic than the current consensus even though I don’t agree with their full conclusions
Still interesting to read different perspectives esp on here.
Thx for the link
(Woodford has just been buying UK banks so may Be he is also taking his own book!!)
Capital Economics are perfectly entitled to their analysis. But they have always been heavily on the Brexit side of the fence - Bootle is a Telegraph columnist and has always been a keen leaver. Any analysis from his group which offered less favourable odds on Britain's chances outside the EU would be a humiliating climbdown for him.
It really does fall into the 'He would say that, wouldn't he?' category of report.
I'd be more interested in analysis by folks who perhaps have been a little more neutral in their approach thus far rather than ones who will always be vulnerable to accusations of confirmation bias.
As THM says, this looks like pushback against hostile anti-Brexit narratives, so while it's fine to post it up in some kind of rebalancing exercise, I don't think any of the extreme views, pro or anti, stand on their own as a reliable predictor.
As ever, the truth lies somewhere between the sunlit uplands and the apocalyptic economic meltdown variously predicted.
You’re brave Julians!!
just thick I think....
anyway, thats the last from me for a while, as you were.
So it wont be as bad as predicted but even they have stopped short of saying it will be goodthe long-term prospects for the UK economy are nowhere near as bleak as many have predicted...the long-term outcomes for the UK economy will be far better than the alarmed consensus would suggest."
zokes, thm was asked his opinion and gave it.
thanks for posting julians. some of the contributors here are giving each other a rough ride, but most people just treat as they find. it would be refreshing to have someone else here who can post without some of the sniping that has come to characterise many of the exchanges here, whatever their standpoint.
thm i have to say it makes me laugh when 'they' start wheeling out dyson to counter the vulcan. i imagine we can see some shite dribbling out of wetherspoon shortly too.
as an aside the landlord of my local opined the other night that it was likely 25p on a pint early next year due to increased costs. brewery pub whose brewery has swallowed other rising costs so far. anecdotal of course, but the guy knows his trade.
The worst thing about all these predictions is that there has been very little additional data since June 2016 which would allow anyone to make them. As Bootle wrote last year, economists are notoriously bad at making predictions anyhow (and yet, here he is with another set).
Essentially zero progress has been made in resolving the uncertainty and giving businesses any insight into likely trading conditions in only a couple of year's time.
It's a vacuum which just invites opinion and bias.
Del - just ignore it. Zokes needs to have his little childish vent and if it helps, no harm. I passed on his comments to my (award-winning) chief economist who sits 20 feet away!! We both smiled.
But Martin is correct, current and forecast trends are actually really dull hence the need of remoaners to resort to excessive exagerated to make their non-points.
So the man in the street should turn off the noise, keep calm and carry on 😉
I don't know who will be more agitated at the latest migration numbers - the Brexshiteers as they are still bouyant or the remoaners as they are still bouyant
So much for the floods of immigrants and bankers away from UK 😉
IMF and all serious commentators think it will be disastrous. Positive views rare outliers
But Martin is correct, current and forecast trends are actually really dull hence the need of remoaners to resort to excessive exagerated to make their non-points.
You misrepresent what I said, surprisingly.. Of course current trends are dull, there are no data available for the situation we'll find ourselves facing in 24 months. There might be a juggernaut steaming around the corner to mow us down, there might not.
Everything rests on a political process which, to my untrained eye, appears to be developing in a haphazard and unfocused way. Any business who does not see that as a significant risk deserves to get kicked up the arse when certainty finally does arrive.
Of course against Julians’s link you’d have to consider Redwood recommending people get their cash out of the UK.
But then he’s a traitor with no belief in Britain I suppose.
The International Monetary Fund singled Britain out as a “notable exception” to an improving global economic outlook on Tuesday, as it confirmed a cut to its long-term forecast for UK growth and said negative effects of Brexit were beginning to show.
The IMF’s latest forecasts are slightly [b]more optimistic[/b] than the current consensus,
https://www.ft.com/content/499115b6-ad90-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4
In our main scenario, we project UK growth to slow from 1.8% in 2016 to around 1.5% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018.This reflects slower consumer spending growth, offset by some rise in UK exports and public investment. But risks to growth are weighted to the downside due to Brexit.
https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html
The UK economy grew by 2% in 2016, with activity having
been unaffected by the EU referendum result. However,
with a weaker pound set to drive up inflation and
squeeze household purchasing power, we expect GDP
growth to slow to 1.6% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018
Now these 3 organisations are generally agreed to be crediblebut err on the conservative side both with a big and small "c"
all see serious damage to the economy. this is the centre / right of centre view.
I don't expect a cliff-edge, although it's possible. I expect:
1) A gradual decline of the economy in the long term relative to Europe
2) An increase in competitive tax and regulation to counter this, leading to further Torification of the country.
3) A gradual drift of big companies away from the UK as they realise what a bunch of clowns we are and our buying power declines.
Over the next 20 years or so.
The economy is projected to slow in 2017 and 2018, owing to uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. This projection [b]assumes that the United Kingdom's external trade will operate on a most favoured nation basis [/b]from April 2019.
http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/united-kingdom-economic-forecast-summary.htm
~So even with favourable and IMO unrealistic assumptions they still see significant damage to the economy
MOlgrips - it won't be a gradual drift of big companies - it will be a rush for the exits as they will not be able to trade succssfully due to lack of access to the EU
Woodfords piece doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. I certainly agree that neither side would be massively happy with a no deal. And I'm quite sure they are right that there is money to be made.
Isn't there always in turmoil?
But seems to me (and I am not pretending to be remotely financially savvy) that there is a great deal of risk too. Which may be fine if you are playing with other people's money or have enough spare that you can take that risk.
So much for the floods of immigrants and bankers away from UK
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/21/almost-10000-eu-health-workers-have-quit-the-nhs-since-brexit-vote ]Almost 10,000 EU health workers have quit NHS since Brexit vote[/url] (up 42% from 2 years ago)
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/12/96-drop-in-eu-nurses-registering-to-work-in-britain-since-brexit-vote ]96% drop in EU nurses registering to work in Britain since Brexit vote[/url]
Yeah, nothing to worry about there.
Didn't mean to, Martin. But I agree that since we don't know what deal we will have you can only work with scenarios (and test the assumptions behind them). But despite the remoaner BS neither current trends not forecast based on hard Brexit suggest the doomsday that they like to claim. Even the Treasury forecasts from project fear had to be misquoted by remoaners on here who tried to claim that they were arguing that GDP was going to fall 4% in one year - perhaps they should be disqualified from voting in future 😉 ?
As for the IMF, the numbers they published yesterday or day before bear no relation to TJ's misrepresentation above. Not that that should be a surprise. Remoaners need to exagerated massively to make their non-points. We are already in the slowdown phase after an extended business cycle. Brexshit increases uncertainty and risk and is a -ve but not even close to the BS that is claimed.
.
:/
Just ignore him del
trying to ignore you both. don't think for a second i'm standing up for you. you're as bad as each other and it's boring.
we might be brought here by a shared enjoyment of riding bikes around in circles in the woods but we're supposed to be grown ups ffs.
Del - Memberzokes can't you give it a rest?
Nope. When he starts answering the questions put to him, and stops accusing others of BS whilst wading in his own, I might. But until then, I'll happily carry on holding him to account.
thm: your predicted -1% GDP for 2019.
Are you expecting that to just be a blip on the year of leaving, returning to growth in 2020, or part of a longer downturn?
1 in 10 financial services jobs have already gone to other european capitals with much of the rest set to follow according to such biased sources as the ft and PWC
A comparison of the impacts between UK GDP and FS GVA showing that the FS sector is disproportionately impacted by the UK leaving the EU compared to the UK
The UK FS sector will continue to grow under both exit scenarios
An estimated reduction of 70,000-100,000 in UK FS employment (number of people employed) in 2020 relative to the counterfactual
https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/financial-services/insights/leaving-the-EU-implications-for-the-UK-financial-services-sector.html
That was for 2019 alone based on hard Brexit.
The main news this week re financial services is the evidence emerging of the kind of compromise that will become common. We are moving towards a two-way regulatory system as DD indicated. Not that suits a remoan agenda. But hey, business and banks in particular are adaptable beasts. They get on with dealing with what is in front of them!!
That was for 2019 alone based on hard Brexit.
Source?