Spain's national debt has reached an plateau whilst private debt is falling. Since the Brexit announcement the UK has got a lot worse as Britain prints money while Spain gets better. [url=
BRUEGEL.ORG and UK[/url].
Objectively the PIGS are now pIG. And the way Britain is increasing its debt post Brexit vote we'll soon be adding a B. In a couple of years I predict BIG. There's still time to abandon Brexit though so I hope I'm wrong..
Thanks for the link Edukator - I was writing something on this topic today, so that was very interesting.
I found it interesting too, THM, particularly the way Spain has managed to recover despite the inability to devalue which is one of the major arguments to Britain remaining outside the Euro. The adjustment was made by internal deflation which although painful did not prevent an on-going economic recovery. That's what I got out of it anyhow.
Spain's national debt has reached an plateau whilst private debt is falling. Since the Brexit announcement the UK has got a lot worse as Britain prints money while Spain gets better. Spain and UK.
But I thought we were going to see the Euro implode horribly? It's been predicted for the last decade by the Europhobes, so it's about time it happened.
Edukator - I have been having a debate with some investors recently about Spanish banks. They were not happy with me pointing out how this deleveraging process was playing out and why they had lost >20% on their investments. There is a strong transfer from banks to households and corporates going on at the moment. For a macro geek like me its fascinating!
Thanks again. I will nick a couple of lines from that article!!
which although painful
very painful 😯
interestingly a lot of the liquidity pumped into the system by the Bank of Spain has leaked out (gushed out) of Spain rendering monetary policy largely ineffective. Its not just us that suffer from the wrong policy mix!!
One of the problems Greece is having is with capital flight with Swiss banks doing the laundering as usual. A documentary I watched on German TV followed the paper trail of Greek capital and money thrown at the country in bailouts, and much of it led to Swiss bank accounts held by Greeks and businesses operating in Greece. Putting conditions on the government was useless when the private sector was squirreling the money away - and as you say the money was gushing out of Greece. The government was powerless to stop banks (including Greek ones), Greek companies and Greek individuals bleeding the country dry. The ability to hide money in Switzerland (and elsewhere but mainly Switzerland) was perhaps the biggest single exacerbating factor in the crisis.
I am very bearish. I am not alone. Once very badly bitten seriously underestimating impact of US subprime won't be making the same mistake again.
I remember discussing that debacle with one of Warren Buffet's lieutenants over dinner- a year or so before it happened.
[img]
Bwaaaaaaahahahahahaha! Actually a thing.
Of course capital flight is a problem only an idiot thinks the country is not bust. Blame the Swiss, blame the banks. Edukator there is full name giveup now in Switzerland so the "authorities" in Europe can get any info they want. There is absolutely nothing illegal about taking your money out of Greece and putting it in a foreign bank. There is no "laundering". If Greece and Greek banks blow up your euro deposit gets converted into Drachma (worth 50%) overnight or maybe you just loose 80% of it as happened in Cyprus to large deposits (admittedly mostly Russian) ? As I posted in the Greek thread a while ago you would be totally daft to have any money in a Greek bank (or anything significant in an Italian one imho). When the crises hit sales of new cars in Greece shot up, buy car (inc with borrowed money) drive car to non bankrupt country in the event of Greece leaving the euro, sell car for euros (default on loan ?). Is that money laundering ?
@igm very very few people anticipated the scale of the impact. I for one saw the sector as a major problem and avoided it and the US banks but that wasn't nearly bearish enough.
@TMH a world of pain as Obama rightly knows hence his visit (plus some reassurances re: Turkey I imagine). All speculation really. Significant deep and prolonged eurozone recession. Definite UK recession, hopefully short as we focus elsewhere, more bank failures. Division of eurozone into core & non-core or complete breakup. Massive changes to EU project inc possible collapse of what we see today. Trump is an isolationist, dealing with this and spending US taxpayers money on Europe's problems will not make the first page of his to-do list. His only involvement will be to facilitate US purchases of European assets at absolute rock bottom prices. China will be sniffing too of course.
@igm very very few people anticipated the scale of the impact. I for one saw the sector as a major problem and avoided it and the US banks but that wasn't nearly bearish enough.
I didn't really understand it at the time - certainly not the scale. But the story is true and I don't think Berkshire took much of a hit in that.
Time for celebrations right...
can we assume from that he voted leave 😆 see what happens when you play russian roulette with a colt 45 auto.
what the giggty ****? there are some absolutely bonkers brexiters in the QT audience tonight!
Go Tim Farron
I said "laundering" because what they were doing broke Greek law and the opacity of Swiss banks (at the time) made it possible.
The QT audience appears to consist of sketch show characters penned by Harry Enfield
I agree with Tim 🙂
I'm not convinced the one at the back wasn't Harry Enfield!
@TMH a world of pain as Obama rightly knows hence his visit (plus some reassurances re: Turkey I imagine). All speculation really. Significant deep and prolonged eurozone recession. Definite UK recession, hopefully short as we focus elsewhere, more bank failures. Division of eurozone into core & non-core or complete breakup. Massive changes to EU project inc possible collapse of what we see today. Trump is an isolationist, dealing with this and spending US taxpayers money on Europe's problems will not make the first page of his to-do list. His only involvement will be to facilitate US purchases of European assets at absolute rock bottom prices. China will be sniffing too of course.
Ok so how does Brexshit affect any of this? You use this as an argument for Brexshit without explaining how our decision affect any of this or why the UK is less exposed as a result.
I don't know about other French and German people but I have never sat down at the dinner table and wondering when the Greeks will pay back their debts. If anything I would imagine that most people understand that money is gone.
+1 THM
I cannot see a single reason why it affects us differently whether we are in or out of the EU
Any actual reasons or examples
All I can think is that we will have less input into what happens after as we have no voice at the table
Or is it jambafct #1006 ?
TBH when did he last post something that was not total bollocks /so one sided as to be a complete distortion of reality?
you could have a more balanced debate on Europe with Nigel after a lock in
He is literally incapable of being factual/sensible or he is the perfect troll as you all keep biting.....you decide....either way why do you want to engage with him?
Stupid is as stupid does.
EU leaders are not "bluffing" when they say the UK will be left without access to the single market when it leaves the bloc if there is no free movement of people, Malta's prime minister says.Joseph Muscat, whose country assumes the EU's presidency in January, told the BBC "this is really and truly our position and I don't see it changing".
You really should be getting off the internet and doing more work, for less.
Log out, now.
EU leaders are not "bluffing" when they say the UK will be left without access to the single market when it leaves the bloc if there is no free movement of people, Malta's prime minister says.Joseph Muscat, whose country assumes the EU's presidency in January, told the BBC "this is really and truly our position and I don't see it changing".
cue the "don't they know who we are comments" from the three Stooges.
nah they will moan about threats instead and blame the EU for simply applying its rules as we all knew they would
It will be proof of how we are better off without them because they are bullies and they dont listen to us
ITs madness its like refusing to pay the gym membership the insisting you can still use the equipment even though you wont actually follow their rules about how to use it and then blaming them
Morons will swallow it
cue the "don't they know who we are comments" from the three Stooges.
That would be "don't they know who we were".
Is it just me? Or does every day that goes by of this ludicrous, farcical limbo, with the government (such as it is) adopting this increasingly inexplicable denial-of-reality position, become increasingly surreal?
We're drifting towards potential economic calamity, and nobody who's meant to be in charge seems particularly bothered, or even seems to be fully engaged with the situation. And the more unhinged elements of the Tory party, and an increasingly rabid press have crossed a line into hysterical madness, and are actively revelling in this exercise in monumentally stupid national self-harm/economic suicide.
All while Her Majesties Official Opposition sits there, impotently looking on, disinterestedly, with its collective thumb up its arse.
How the **** did we get here?!!! 😯
Get with program binners! Stupid means Stupid.
How the **** did we get here?!!!
You'd have to see who came up with Article 50. I bet it was a Brit.
Binners, I think it's because of their blind faith in the market. Totally free, unfettered, uncontrolled capitalism.
Binners, I think it's because of their blind faith in the market. Totally free, unfettered, uncontrolled capitalism.
Indeed. Which is why I fear the worst. That this mob are going to use this as an ideal opportunity to tear up EU red tape (read: workers rights) and establish a neoliberal fantasy island of turbo-charged capitalism. A Year Zero race to the bottom on wages and rights (and benefits of course)
in short, the complete opposite of what they promised to the disaffected working classes who turned out to vote for this pack of lies.
I think this is the reason for the silence from the Brexiteers. They don't want any of us to know what they're cooking up until its all in motion. Because When it becomes clear just how utterly cynically the working class have been manipulated and just outright lied too, conned into allowing them to establish a system that is going to serve 'the Elite' even more so than before, at the expense of everyone else, and massively widen inequality, then I think we're going to see civil unrest on a scale this country hasn't seen for a very long time. If ever.
Vive la révolution, Rudi !
he is the perfect troll as you all keep biting..
Agree. It is an expert level of trolling on this and the Trump thread.
Without that level of trolling I would imagine the threads would have about 25% of the posts they do and maybe get somewhere instead of going round in circles.
its important to hear jambas posts
its why i dont use the blocker, theres lots of people that believe the same stuff as jamba- look at the mail, express, telegraph, sun etc its full of brexit fantasies, no matter how horrible the opinions there are you cant counter them if you dont know what they are.
5th I assume you know it was a Brit who drafted A50, prior to Lisbon there wasn't even a process. Wouod have been better for us as we couod have jist pulled the plug anytime.
Erdogan/Turkey are facing up to the EU again, any more nonsense (ie voting to suspend membership negotiations) and we'll just reopen the borders again and you'll have millions more refugees.
TMH it affects us much more directly if we are still a member, we will be dragged into reacues and recovery budgets and our budget contribution is calculated in part by a relative ecomomic strength so that wouod jump up again too. We need to take the bumps in the road and refocus away from the EU. Exports have been falling steadily and significantly since 2000 (I recall Kimbers posted a graph)
It is amazing how the tories and the right have complete faith in those who exist to make money and yet have no faith or trust in peopleBinners, I think it's because of their blind faith in the market. Totally free, unfettered, uncontrolled capitalism.
SO we all get monitored and greater intrusion and big business gets less regulation and more freedom
why would they trust business and not people?
Erdogan/Turkey are facing up to the EU again, any more nonsense (ie voting to suspend membership negotiations) and we'll just reopen the borders again and you'll have millions more refugees.
that vote doesn't have any teeth and was symbolic.
Erdogan is being a prick. he may have a mandate, but rounding up your opponents and summarily imprisoning them is rather to be frowned upon, don't you think?
also i think you'll find that the E6bn Turkey is being paid to take care of that immigration situation has some sway...
A quote on this story caught my eye.
BBC.CO.UK "For example, if Scotland had separate market access arrangements, that would mean possibly different customs arrangements, that would mean there would be customs posts on the border. There's no other way to deal with that.
"If you're Greenland and you're a long way away from the European land mass, it's easier. But otherwise, how do you control the flow of goods that are traded at different terms on the same island?"
What, like we'll have between the Republic and Northern Ireland?
Or in fact where you have ANY land border with a country outside of your trading bloc...
@kimbers thanks and indeed, main reason for participating in such threads is to hear those who disagree with you. Otherwise it just becomes a Momentum meeting where only one viewpoint is acceptable followed eventually by a dreadfully nasty shock at the ballot box.
@Del I think Erdogan is an appalling dictator, he has campaigned for re-election under a hardline and regressive Islamist manifesto and he's sent Turkish aircraft and troops into Syria primarily to fight the Kurds who have been the ones actually making provress againat IS. Turkey has also turned a blind eye to 30-50,000 IS recruits passing through it's country, been buying oil from IS and facilitating people smuggling. I am no fan, however he is easily able to push the EU around which was my point about hiw weak and incompetant the EU is.
@cchris do you really think the French understand it's been a €75bn gift to Greece (I put 100 before but that's Germany) ? Speaking to relatives (some of which are officials) and it's not generally understood that a hard Brexit means either big EU budget cuts or France paying an extra €3bn (?) pa.
@igm I don't deny it, I bought a business in 2005 and in 2006 sold all the sub-prime holdings. What I failed to do is see to cross over European banking in 2008.
@binners May already said no workers rights legislation will be eroded under her Premiership. That takes us to 2020 where we will either have another May Government or something under JC ? Even under Brexif stress the Tories just increased living wage and raised the personal allowance. Whatever the STWers think the Tories are capturing the middle ground.
Did anyone see the comment in the subscription thread, "why wouod I subscribe the magazine when the forums are full of left wing politics and road bikes? I think the magazine would be the same." 😉
I am sure they do understand. That is why they have chosen Fillon who is pro eu but not as much as other candidates.
I agree with you that after the election in France and Germany, there will be reforms in the way the EU works.
Sadly if Brexit happens, the UK will be left out.
On workers rights, the government don't need to change anything, the businesses who don't respect the currents laws are not challenged as government don't care. More companies will abuse the system knowing that they have government on their side.
So officially we have ministers putting themselves in the middle ground, but turning a blind eye to outlaw practices.
Not just workers rights threatened either, the raft of Environmental Legislation prompted by EU Directives is also under threat under the cover of "protecting the economy".
But then these are laws that are broken routinely and have a blind eye turned to them too. Unsurprisingly given the kneecapping the Regulators have experienced.
why would they trust business and not people?
Because they own business, not people. Not yet, anyway.
TMH it affects us much more directly if we are still a member, we will be dragged into reacues and recovery budgets and our budget contribution is calculated in part by a relative ecomomic strength so that wouod jump up again
We won't have any say on anything that affects the EU. Any strategic decisions taken will either ignore or negatively impact the UK.
Yep just read that the environmental studies used by the government for Heathrow decision were old and out of date, and they knew it but carried on regardless.
They really are shxt.
@binners May already said no workers rights legislation will be eroded under her Premiership.
She also said workers would be on boards, that didn't last very long. I wonder what else she'll change her mind on when people are concentrating on something else?
