He said: "When people look back in 100 or 200 years, 2016 will be seen as one of the great historic years - a year of big political revolution.
Oh thank god, I was scared it was going be 1000 year reich.
China dumps steel on world/EU.
Big trading block goes "NO!" and punches China steel subsidies in the kisser.
China says "this big group of like minded mercantiles have got their act together!
Steel production in EU continues.
China dumps steel on world/EU.
Little island that makes farting noises, makes farting noise.
Tariffs on Chinese steels rejected.
EU steel, or more specifically, farting island steel production goes pop!
China thinks, "if we continue subsiding stuff we can destroy most EU manufacturing. Woop! Have we finished downloading from Rolls Royce yet? Yes? Good, lets build some jet engines and then sell 'em back to Airbus! Noodles for everyone!"
Mrmo I was asking this month's ago regardless of global access what do we actually have to sell? We have no significant manufacturing or technology that is competitive or owned by us. The things that got Nissan Hitachi etc to invest here are rapidly disappearing- the answer is to raise the working week to 50 hours and drop the minimum wage to £3 pet hour so we can compete with the far east. At some pint western countries have to accept that high pay blue collar work has gone as the people who are blue collar are not willing to pay £1000 for a basic TV or washing machine
That's the point really - when will the UK become the new far east and that's what I don't understand about say Trump 'bringing jobs back to the USA' for instance and his withdrawal from the TPP how can you do that.
How does a UK or US worker on a minimum wage of $7.25 or £7.20 compete against a worker in say Vietnam or Taiwan or China etc. Is it a cyclical thing that at some point the UK will be so bereft that it will be cheaper to manufacture here than say Vietnam? Is the alternative that we each just make our own stuff for our own markets so that its proportionate but that seems bonkers as well i.e. a car in the UK or US would be priced not according to what it cost to make etch but what the worker can afford (i'm not sure i'm explaining myself well here!!).
There are some scary minimum wages (where there are any) out there for us to compete with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minimum_wages_by_country
jambalaya - Member
DrJ what that chart shows you is how incredibly difficult it is to reign in excessive spending. It takes a very long time and it is very painful.
It appears Brown managed it though. Interesting.
How does a UK or US worker on a minimum wage of $7.25 or £7.20 compete against a worker in say Vietnam or Taiwan or China etc
I suppose the idea is that you add a zillion dollars to the cost of the imported widget so it's cheaper to but a home-produced one. How that actually works out is another story. Obviously you can set your own tariffs how you want, but your exports still have to compete with Chinese ones.
It appears Brown managed it though. Interesting
Whereas Alistair Darling foolishly caused a worldwide financial crisis. Labour, eh?
It appears Brown managed it though. Interesting.
Now I'm no rabid spinning rightie but you surely realise that those positive bits are during an economic boom..?
That graph of deficit would map perfectly the global economy, I'm sure.
[img] 
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Well strictly speaking mol, Labour's surpluses resulted (at least in part) from what went on before them. That aside, the overall trend is obvious.
[How many times have the nasty Tories run surpluses in the modern period?]
It is true that in recent times, these were the only periods when we spent less than we earned. Whatever happened to Auntie Prudence.....we digress 😉
So the new economic policy would appear to be:
[img] .jpg)
[/img]
Just reading the ifs comments, looks good,I believe that the UK has already achieved the lowest wages in Western Europe bar portugal, on a par with Spain.
Will be interesting to see what happens at the next general election , quite how anyone buys the election with the usual tax bribes when things will be crap. I don't think anyone expects any positive progress this side of 2020!
And google ads, want to emigrate
I suppose the idea is that you add a zillion dollars to the cost of the imported widget so it's cheaper to but a home-produced one. How that actually works out is another story.
Would also need tariffs per type of item. i.e. not much point putting a heavy tariff on imported cars as we don't make any (unless we all want to drive around in Caterhams and Morgans - which thinking about it would be a rather good country)
In fact as we don't make most the popular items it would take years to get back to where we could.
All very complicated on whether it would work anyway, but Trump thinks it does so it must do...
Will be interesting to see what happens at the next general election , quite how anyone buys the election with the usual tax bribes when things will be crap.
Quite simple. Tories will shout "you can't trust Labour with the economy". That will be painted on buses, parroted by the Daily Heil etc, and the proles will duly tug their forelocks and turn out and vote for the Masters.
i.e. not much point putting a heavy tariff on imported cars as we don't make any (unless we all want to drive around in Caterhams and Morgans - which thinking about it would be a rather good country)
Horses and carts more likely. We will become a sort of rainy and cold Cuba, without the music, coffee, rum etc etc.
Just reading the ifs comments, looks good,I believe that the UK has already achieved the lowest wages in Western Europe bar portugal, on a par with Spain.
Oh well done us.
Oh well done us.
Well done freedom of movement 🙂
Will be interesting to see what happens at the next general election , quite how anyone buys the election with the usual tax bribes when things will be crap.
The Tories do have a somewhat huge electoral advantage here. Do you think many people are right now thinking that this would all be going so much better if only these two were running the show.....
[img] 
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The Tories do have a somewhat huge electoral advantage here. Do you think many people are right now thinking that this would all be going so much better if only these two were running the show....
Stranger things have happened!
[img] 
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2 smug millionaires in a gold plated skyscraper up there
meanwhile
heres what brexit means for those at the bottom
[img] 
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the rich are OK though
[img] 
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Kimbers - as I recall I may be in that 8th or 9th decile. Increases of that size per annum mean very little to me.
On the other hand a reduction of the same value at 2nd or 3rd decile - ouch. And their reduction is far greater than my increase.
Doesn't feel right really.
the very richest do see a modest drop, no wonder farige wants to move to the USA
5thElefant - Member
"Oh well done us."Well done freedom of movement
You need to think that one through my large grey friend.
Graphs? We don't need graphs where we're going!
[i]"Experts, soothsayers, astrologers are all in much the same category."
- Jacob Rees-Mogg[/i]
You need to think that one through my large grey friend.
Pretty simple. We have job vacancies. They can't get jobs at home. Access to cheap labour is a great benefit for us.
If wages are higher elsewhere, then freedom of movement would be a good thing that allows us to go to the higher wages. Unless of course they aren't which is possible.
But freedom of movement is part of the remedy not part of the problem.
Lack of jobs may be part of the problem. But if as you say we have vacancies then actually we want people to come.
Freedom of movement is, dear grey one, a two way street.
Did you stealth edit?
Grrr
That the British are crap at foreign languages and don't bother at school, whose fault is it when working class unemployed can't go work in Germany where there are vacancies?
It's noticeable that y here has been little comment from the Boris fox Davies Farage camp in respect to Hammonds statement - only the true inbreds like Rees Mogg making completely irrational noise.
That £350 million will cover the interest payment maybe
If wages are higher elsewhere, then freedom of movement would be a good thing that allows us to go to the higher wages. Unless of course they aren't which is possible.But freedom of movement is part of the remedy not part of the problem.
Lack of jobs may be part of the problem. But if as you say we have vacancies then actually we want people to come.
Freedom of movement is, dear grey one, a two way street.
It's not quite as simple as a two way street as local employment laws vary. We have more flexible ones, and a stronger than average economy, so we gain a lot more than most.
It is a very good thing. We could do with expanding it.
Did you stealth edit?Grrr
Me? No.
I take it all back then. I thought you were speaking out against freedom of movement.
To be honest, full unfettered access to / membership of the single market and freedom of movement and I can accept most of the rest of Brexit. Grants for areas that voted to leave I'm just not bothered about.
Hopefully the fees we pay won't rise too much.
WRT the surplus seen under Gordon Brown.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002
Unfortunately a once in a lifetime event.
I take it all back then. I thought you were speaking out against freedom of movement.
No, I'm all for cheap labour. If I was competing for the same jobs I wouldn't be.
Whereas Alistair Darling foolishly caused a worldwide financial crisis. Labour, eh?
Labour had been regulating the banks for 10 years. Regulator approved ludicrous acauisition price RBS paid for ABN inc their massive US subprime business. Labour totally failed to reign in spending post 2008 when the writing was very clearly on the wall. Brown/Darling encouraged healthy Lloyds to buy totally bust HBOS when it was worth less than zero. No Labour didn't cause the financial crises but they failed to regulate the banks correctiy, they rescued RBS at far too high a price and they didn't deign in spending during 2008-10. All this and Brown declared an end to "Boom and Bust" - priceless.
Taxes are about 200% on cars in Singapore and the roads are packed plenty of Lambos and Ferraris which cost £500k there. If car prices went up 50% we'd still buy them just less often and we'd repair them more. An increase in duty would put second hand car prices up. As an aside quite a few countries charge VAT / sales tax on second hand cars. So while it may only bring some jobs back to UK (build and repair) it would raise £££
I don't think [b]anyone[/b] expects any positive progress this side of 2020!
What about me 😉
welshfarmer - Member
WRT the surplus seen under Gordon Brown.....
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002Unfortunately a once in a lifetime event.
That wouldn't be shown as contributing to a surplus would it, because the funds received and the asset released would offset each other? Serious question - I am not a Treasury accountant.
Jamba - no, not even you. 😉 Wasn't it 10-20 years before it got better that you said? Feel free to prove me wrong.
Don't ye worry the little selves, it's never going to appen, thy leaders in that there London will bores us stupid (with your help) an before we know t'will be like vote never appened. An to make it clear Yorkshire don't want no soft Brexit or hard Brexit. It wants a full erect Brexit so we can stand tail n proud.
@igm by the way I am saving my senior's moment for another day 🙂
I was focusing on the word any ... I am confident there will be many positive signs by 2020 plus (sorry to be so repetitive) the eurozone debt crises which will shut up most of the Remainers. The real economic benefits will come later imho, long after I am retired
So Jambas, this coming EZ sovereign debt crisis - what does this mean for us and how does Brexshit affect the outcome?
I am confident there will be many positive signs by 2020 plus
And what about now?
jambalaya - Member
@igm by the way I am saving my senior's moment for another dayI was focusing on the word any ... I am confident there will be many positive signs by 2020 plus (sorry to be so repetitive) the eurozone debt crises which will shut up most of the Remainers. The real economic benefits will come later imho, long after I am retired
Ignoring the fact the Aaron Banks espoused soft Brexit then, given you're, what, 55 ish, long after you're retired is around 20 years plus? 😉
Given that European zone debt is almost exactly the same as UK debt why are you predicting problems in Europe but not the UK, Jamba?
[url= https://www.statista.com/statistics/269684/national-debt-in-eu-countries-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ ]Debt/gdp in European countries.[/url]
Since those 2015 figures many European countries have improved while the UK has got worse. Then ther's the level of personal debt which is much higher in the UK than many European countries. In France persoanl savings cover large part of public debt so it's not as bad as it looks, in Japan too.
because he does not do rational fact based argumentsGiven that European zone debt is almost exactly the same as UK debt why are you predicting problems in Europe but not the UK, Jamba?
Edukator. It's not about averages, one eurozone country does not formally guaranty another. Greece is bust they cannot pay, ever. What happens when taxpayers of eurozone understand they won't be getting back 60% of what they have lent (gifted to) Greece, they won't be lining up to help the next basket case. France is owed €100bn. It's not even clear what happens to the euro if a country defaults. Italy can't pay either and they have a totally bust banking sector, they don't have the money to bail out pretty much every single major bank. Greece was only "bailed out" in 2010 as the eurozone was well aware the whole currency was likely to fail via a domino effect Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain ... for the longest time these where known as the PIIGS but that's not politically correct.
Italy is making noises about withdrawing from the euro, they can force (redominate) all that debt into new Lira and then devalue say 40% and bingo debt/gdp is 90% (numbers approx). This is a fundamental problem with the euro, countries have ignored the rules and now there is a price to be paid.
Look at the debt to gdp ratios and then reprice at say 2%, 3% or 5% and the numbers quickly run away - Greek debt pricing spiralled in 2009 leading to the requirement for a bailout (ie market would not lend so only lender was eurozone to avoid a currency blow up). The other countries like Italy are too big to bail out. Once they start toppling they will fall like dominos, question is where does it stop ?
Germany and France have kicked this can down the road past their 2017 elections but far from going away the problem is only growing. Obama and the IMF are wise, why would Obama make a special trip to Greece on his final roadtrip, he didn't do it for the feta cheese and olives. IMO Trump won't allow the IMF into a bailout unless the terms are very favourable, ie disastrous for eurozone. He is a dealmaker and he like most Americans are not interested in bailing out overspending European governments.
I am very bearish. I am not alone. Once very badly bitten seriously underestimating impact of US subprime won't be making the same mistake again.
And how does this affect us and what is the effect of Brexshit?
You more than anyone has given this a lot of thought - so what is the answer?
[Greece can only recover of creditors take a hit. Every debt crisis ultimately comes to this realisation. But the Germans remain in denial of the obvious]
