do you really believe factories are going to come back after Brexit?
Are you prepared to work for , 14 hours a day?
Good luck with that.
Your relying on the false security of the status quo like those on the Titanic who didn't get in the lifeboat because they didn't believe it would sink.
Trouble is, we don't know whether the ship will sink or not, and while it's listing, quite badly at times, it might yet stay afloat. Except, if I get off I can't help with the bailing out.
So let's all jump overboard - except there aren't any lifeboats, only the promise that something's coming to our rescue. But we don't know if that's the Carpathia, two old fishing boats or a leaky Kayak because the people telling us to get off haven't actually studied the nearby shipping before issuing the command.
Trouble is, we don't know whether the ship will sink or not, and while it's listing, quite badly at times, it might yet stay afloat. Except, if I get off I can't help with the bailing out.So let's all jump overboard - except there aren't any lifeboats, only the promise that something's coming to our rescue. But we don't know if that's the Carpathia, two old fishing boats or a leaky Kayak because the people telling us to get off haven't actually studied the nearby shipping before issuing the command.
Precisely
Uncertainties with both options, we have made the rational decision to sink or swim on our own, masters of our own fate, better to live one day as a lion than die as a sheep and all that.
But let's not pretend that staying on board is inherently 'safe'
do you really believe factories are going to come back after Brexit?
like Trump voters being told that the car production lines will be restarting again in Detroit, they are actually gullible enough to believe this shit. Or maybe they just want to believe it?
But I've said it before, but I really do fear for whats going to happen when the working classes of Newcastle, Rotherham, Cardiff and Rochdale, who voted for this lunacy on the strength of a pack of lies, realise to what extent they've actually been conned.
When the promised answer to all their problems turns out making their already fragile lives even worse, while those making the bullshit promises do quite niecly, thank you very much!
its not going to be pretty
So the (pessimistic) estimate of the cost of Brexit is £60bn over 5 years. The £120bn total Remoaner clickbait headline comes from extra spending / investment.
To put that into context Labour left an ANNUAL budget deficit of £100bn - 'kin 'ell 😯
5 years of Labour overspending £500bn, pessimistic Brexit "cost" estimate £60bn. That's a no-brainer of a choice for me given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum.
As Mrs May confirmed yesterday at PMQs there is not going to be any second Referendum and A50 will be triggered by the end of March
You Brexiters aren't asking questions, trying to find out. You've already made your minds up permanently, and are just trying to rationalise the decision.
I didn't vote Brexit. You just don't get how that tribal "You can't be on our team" tactic plays out. You call me a racist, you call me a breixiteer. As it happens I didn't let the abuse change my vote, but did it alienate the critical 2pc of people needed to win this vote away? Yep, IMHO it did.
I suspect you don't care though. You've much rather lose, have something to complain about and enjoy dishing out personal abuse to the people you don't want in your tribe.
So the (pessimistic) estimate of the cost of Brexit is £60bn over 5 years.
Coincidentally that is roughly the amount we are paying (the weekly £250MM not the made up £350MM)
So for 2 years we pay that plus the existing £250MM and then for 3 years we pay the same as we are paying now. When were the Brexiters going to get that £250MM to spend how they see fit/on NHS ?
^^^ what out of breath says - definitely on the streets of Southampton people where insulted to be called racist and it just hardened their attitude. Being intimidated by threats of a global recession, punishment budget and a US President who never in a billion years would accept freedom of movement and a foreign Supreme court all helped us to win
Hang on, OOB are you thinking I was addressing you? If you didn't vote Brexit then I'm not. There was insuffient break between the quote and the rest of the post. That's why I wrote 'you brexiters' because it was addressed at brexiters in general.
I suspect you don't care though. You've much rather lose, have something to complain about and enjoy dishing out personal abuse to the people you don't want in your tribe.
That's ludicrous. And besides, I never dish out personal abuse. I criticise things people do, not people.
in the absence of knowing anything about what's sailing to our rescue - 'rational' isn't the word I'd use.
In fact to stretch the analogy a little too far..... right now we've climbed over the guard rail, have one foot hovering and now they're telling us that the only thing they're reasonably certain of is that when they said the Carpathia was moments away, actually they lied and in fact it's actually sailing away from us. In big writing on a bus.
But no, we're over the rail now, might as well jump now we've got this far, even though we could climb back on, grab a bucket and help shape our destiny that way.
@kerley when reality turns out to be better than these forecasts which imo will be pretty soon. The OBR already revised up 2016 forecasts and thats a period right in front of their noses.
'Sounds good to me, we all go down together, but I get the huge satisfaction of watching you all run around panicking and screaming that you don't want to die.
I'm sure they will be saying that, but there is a world of difference between a banker in London not getting quite the price he wanted when he sold his Mayfair flat and an unemployed steel worker in Wales queuing up at the food bank.
OBR already revised up 2016 forecasts and thats a period right in front of their noses.
which was based on Article 50 having already been declared.
@kerley when reality turns out to be better than these forecasts which imo will be pretty soon. The OBR already revised up 2016 forecasts and thats a period right in front of their noses.
Reality could of course be worse than the forecasts. It is still not looking as good as leavers would have imagined and discounting predictions as project fear will bite them although I can already hear the sound of "why didn't they tell us this"
To put that into context Labour left an ANNUAL budget deficit of £100bn - 'kin 'ell5 years of Labour overspending £500bn, pessimistic Brexit "cost" estimate £60bn. That's a no-brainer of a choice for me given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum.
Luckily we have had ten years of Tory rule to get the budget balanced again.
Oh, hang on a mo.....
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given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum
Oh aye? And you're not?
The £120bn total Remoaner clickbait headline comes from extra spending / investment.
Needed to try and counteract Brexit..
****'s sake Jam. Seriously.
There are an awful lot of negative waves on this thread.
Don't confuse negativity with fear
Very little to fear, opportunties and threats but nothing existential, far too much hyperbole from everyone on here.
Well Tony Blair does actually get it. He acknowledges that if we'd had a Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty we would possibly/probably have rejected it. Which is why we where never asked. EU style democracy at it's worst (from Telegragph)
"When we thought we were going to have to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, I thought that was a very, very open question as to whether we were going to win or not," he said."What it shows you (is) that if you put this decision to people like this in a referendum, I think at any point in time in the last 30 years you could have got that result."
which was based on Article 50 having already been declared.
OBR forecast for 2016 (the one that has just been revised) was, at the time of the budget, based on a [b]remain[/b] vote. That forecast has been revised up very slightly. The 2017 and 2018 forecasts have been revised down, but nothing like the treasury's Brexit scenarios.
None of the underlying assumptions made (and documented) by the OBR or the treasury were conditional on activating Article 50. The "shock scenario" was based on only a vote to leave as were all of the predictions that the four horsemen would be taking Santa's place this year.
You could try reading the various analyses instead of just parroting stuff.
The OBR ARE NOT guessing. They are using sophisticated models. However, like any model the results are only as good as the inputs. Visibility on some inputs is crap, hence results and ability to plan sensibly are affected negatively and badly
Are LWers now complaining that (1) austerity has been exposed as a myth and (2) that the government is continuing to borrow more and for longer in order to offset the weakness in the economy. How very odd?
(kimbers, the reduction in LA spending is a policy choice within rising total gov spending. Its is a re-balancing after a period when LA grew very quickly)
DrJ what that chart shows you is how incredibly difficult it is to reign in excessive spending. It takes a very long time and it is very painful.
(from Telegragph)
The Brexshit Bugle which lost all sense of perspective on this issue a long time ago
DrJ what that chart shows you is how incredibly difficult it is to reign in excessive spending. It takes a very long time and it is very painful.
No it reflects the fact that the Tories - whether by chance of by design - abandoned austerity almost at birth. We have one of the most expansionary fiscal policy stances in the developed world - far more so than in some socialist-run economies - which is the correct option when the corporate and household sectors are both deleveraging.
The graph shows that the Tories did an excellent job at bluffing the markets on austerity while boosting the economy through higher spending and on-going deficits. Before we give them too much credit, I think that this was more by luck than judgement!
So, brexiters, it is a wide world out there so what are we going to sell? What is the UKs USP? I am assuming that you know what the plan is? How do you intend to productively use the disenfranchised valley folk?
Are LWers now complaining that (1) austerity has been exposed as a myth and (2) that the government is continuing to borrow more and for longer in order to offset the weakness in the economy. How very odd?
No. Borrowing to invest is good. However it would have been better to borrow to invest when we hadn't just battered our economic outlook.
I have a feeling that Hammond knows the money needs borrowing, and being a remainer is using it as an excuse to borrow. Or perhaps he was always anti-austerity anyway? We don't really know what his views on austerity were - or perhaps we do?
Simple innit
1. Devalue to increase competitiveness
2. Err thats it
3. We import inflation, wages increase (or not), we lose competitiveness
4. Hello Turkeys, its Xmas time...
Cranberry sauce anyone?
What is the UKs USP?
We would have a moderately capable workforce if they spent less time posting bollocks on the internet.
[i]So the (pessimistic) estimate of the cost of Brexit is £60bn over 5 years. The £120bn total Remoaner clickbait headline comes from extra spending / investment.
To put that into context Labour left an ANNUAL budget deficit of £100bn - 'kin 'ell
5 years of Labour overspending £500bn, pessimistic Brexit "cost" estimate £60bn. That's a no-brainer of a choice for me given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum.[/I]
Let's be clear though, whoever had been in power in 2008-2011 would've had the same problem (bankers eh?), I can live with you blaming Labour before that but based on the graph above ALL Govts of recent times have run a deficit.
And I've also got sympathy for Hammond, as he's inherited the Brexit decision and like all good finance folk he's getting the bad news out now so he can (hopefully) look better in the future.
The trouble is, is that the bad news is so bad, that even an optimist can't see past it - even if you took a positive view on everything, we'd still be in 5h1t creek, because we are already!
But no way can I agree with anyone who says "we voted out we must leave irrelevant of the harm it will do to the UK and its citizens", that is just madness. It's not something you'd do personally nor in business, facts/events/risks change, so you re-evaluate your decisions.
No. Borrowing to invest is good.
Only in attractive opportunities where ROIC > cost of borrowing. We got that wrong before. Allegro anyone?
However it would have been better to borrow to invest when we hadn't just battered our economic outlook.
We borrowed all the way through - one reason why the UK fared relatively well.
I have a feeling that Hammond knows the money needs borrowing
What does that mean?
Hammond knows he is a man surrounded by completely clueless idiots, who realises that as the only grown up in the room he is going to have to sort it out, as christ only knows what damage these clowns will do if he leaves them to their own devices
Obviously the absolutely bonkers foaming-at-the-moiuth right wing of the Tory party, and their insane xenophobic mates in the press hate him for preventing these morons driving our economy off a cliff
We import inflation, wages increase (or not), we lose competitiveness
Minford's argument is this could be partly mitigated by reducing tariffs on products currently prohibitively tariffed by EU due to protectionism.
on the graph above ALL Govts of recent times have run a deficit.
Bingo!!
Apart from bloody austerity labour for a few years - bastards! 😉
Mrmo I was asking this month's ago regardless of global access what do we actually have to sell? We have no significant manufacturing or technology that is competitive or owned by us. The things that got Nissan Hitachi etc to invest here are rapidly disappearing- the answer is to raise the working week to 50 hours and drop the minimum wage to £3 pet hour so we can compete with the far east. At some pint western countries have to accept that high pay blue collar work has gone as the people who are blue collar are not willing to pay £1000 for a basic TV or washing machine
Minford's argument is this could be partly mitigated by reducing tariffs on products currently prohibitively tariffed by EU due to protectionism.
Possibly, time will tell
I have a feeling that Hammond knows the money needs borrowing
What does that mean?
That he does not agree with Osborne's austerity policies, but doesn't want to say so directly.
That he does not agree with Osborne's austerity policies, but doesn't want to say so directly.
He might have done, but the world has changed. Not that Osborne ever did austerity. It was all spin.
Hammond has no choice, he (metaphorically) has an over draft as big as his salary, and has to take a 5 to 10% payout from a pay packet of JAM (just about managing)
If this was an individual and you walked into the bank and asked to double your overdraft what do you reckon they would say?
Minford's argument is this could be partly mitigated by reducing tariffs on products currently prohibitively tariffed by EU due to protectionism.
Couple of examples, scrap tariffs on Steel imports, how long will Port Talbot survive?
Scrap tariffs on food production and how much of the UK agricultural industry will survive?
In both cases what do you do with the newly unemployed.
As a case study shall we look at British Steel, British Leyland, and Coal, all have done so well over the last few years and no one has yet found out what to do with the former towns and cities that depended on them.
As for equally well paid jobs, crane driver to call centre operative...
The Brexshit Bugle
Like
No it reflects the fact that the Tories - whether by chance of by design - abandoned austerity almost at birth.
Depending on how you think of austerity - an overall reduction of spending, or a reluctance to make poor peoples' lives better under the excuse of "we're all in this together" and other lies.
Hammond has no choice, he (metaphorically) has an over draft as big as his salary, and has to take a 5 to 10% payout from a pay packet of JAM (just about managing)If this was an individual and you walked into the bank and asked to double your overdraft what do you reckon they would say?
Threads [i]passim[/i] on the Greek debt crisis include abundant explanations of why a national economy is not like a household economy.
Depending on how you think of austerity - an overall reduction of spending, or a reluctance to make poor peoples' lives better under the excuse of "we're all in this together" and other lies.
It's the former. The latter is a childish rant.
can we crowdfund this bus?
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Couple of examples, scrap tariffs on Steel imports, how long will Port Talbot survive?
Scrap tariffs on food production and how much of the UK agricultural industry will survive?
If those are stupid choices, we dont have to make them!
Hammond says of Farage [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38089702 ]Tell him not to hold his breath[/url]
