So many major uncertainties, we could get the ultimate deal, full tariff free access without any freedom of movement or budget contribution
This cannot and never will happen
there is no way on earth we leave, don't pay, ignore the rules and they just let us carry on
TBH a child should have a better understanding of this than to state that as a possibility
Its more likely Elvis will be our lead negotiator than that scenario
So many major uncertainties, we could get the ultimate deal, full tariff free access without any freedom of movement or budget contribution
WHAT FING PLANET ARE YOU ON???
Robert Preston reckons £220Bn cost by 2020.
Is he any better than that Peston clown who used to be on the Beeb?
So around £1BN a week then, i.e costing £800MM a week more than we are currently paying to be part of EU.
Not sure where the £350MM extra NHS funding is coming from.....
The great thing about Peston moving from the BBC is I never have to listen to him again. Peston is the most appaling egotist the very personification of Mr Clickbait.
Europe was totally F'd without Brexit, with its even worse. The cost to Europe is far higher than it is to us. The Brussells politicans can play Russian Roulette if they wish but the gun is pointed at the EU's head and Germany in particular. Germany cannot bail out the eurozone they quite simply don't have enough money. Germany will be the biggest loser in a WTO scenario. It's not rocket science.
Top politicing from Boris by the way on supporting Turkey's EU membership now we are leaving.
@kerley these are forcasts, the OBR rarely gets it right 1 year in advance. Who knows what the opportunity cost of being shackled to an economic corpse has been the last 10 years, how many hundreds of billions of lost growth ?
Yeah because the UK economy was in such great shape before we joined the EC/EEC/EU whatever. Some of us remember.
Jamba - its a much lessor cost to the EU than to the UK.
Its a small part of EU trade, its a huge part of UK trade
Peston is very dramatic ... 😆jambalaya - Member
The great thing about Peston moving from the BBC is I never have to listen to him again. Peston is the most appaling egotist the very personification of Mr Clickbait.
Peston
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Ftfy
you are on form tonight Jambalaya . 😆
these are forcasts, the OBR rarely gets it right 1 year in advance.
Forecasts that the government uses to determine how it will spend
So even by some great miracle (that only the most truly deluded of Brextits actually believes) Brexit were to deliver to the 100-200bn extra that it will need just to break even.
Those at the bottom will continue to suffer as our services suffer from ever more chronic underinvestment, just in the short term.
Wanton stupidity on an epic scale
anyway i read the statement and not one mention of the NHS, with all the extra money floating around i would have thought could have bunged a few quid in that direction. But no...
[quote=tjagain ]Jamba - its a much lessor cost to the EU than to the UK.
Its a small part of EU trade, its a huge part of UK trade
No its quite clearly a scenario where jamby can see everyone suffering due to lost trade but us...the one with the most trade to lose.
As for post brexit, who has been funding Le Pen, Farage etc. Nice Mr Putin, nice to see who is going to clean up after the shit subsides.
WHAT FING PLANET ARE YOU ON???
PLANET LEAVE
TJ it's a substantially greater cost to fhe EU as a whole than it is to the UK. The cost to the EU is concentrated innfhe richer more influential countries too. This is withiut countingnthe very substantial benefit countries like
Poland get from workers sending money home.
cchris it was a scenario not a prediction 😉
kimbers maybe, just maybe if Osbourne, Cameron and IMF had come up with some more believable scenarios they may have been held as credible.
Junky my point as I have made many times is they have more to lose and so rationally will want a sensible deal. They may well not be in a position to play "hard ball" come summer 2017. Just imagine a Le Pen win and she announces a Frexit Referendum (or likely just one on the euro).
This is another train smash interview, here from a Labour Shadow cabinet minister nomless. How Labour can call the Tories a shambles I don't know
jambalaya - Member
Pessimist vs optimist. See my point about eurozone collapse.
I assume you see yourself as a pessimist. Certainly you seem to have a fairly pessimistic view of the world where the only way forward is to break things that are doing a sterling job (see what did there?) of providing stability over a 40-50 year plus period. And making predictions of the financial apocalypse to come.
How Labour can call the Tories a shambles I don't know
Oh I don't know maybe a government elected on a control borrowing, increase people's wealth ticket who seem to do neither are regarded as a success in post-truth Britain (not suggesting for an instant that Corbyn et al would do better)
THe cost the UK is clearly more significant. Stop being an arse.
Yeah because the UK economy was in such great shape before we joined the EC/EEC/EU whatever. Some of us remember.
I was only 10 but the accepted view is that a long period of Labour governments stiffling regulation and excessive control had put us in that position. Heath took us into Europe to encourage free trade.
Maastricht was the real turning point, that Treaty should have been the subject of a Referendum or simply rejected outright.
By the way all the snowflake definitions so far sound perfect for describing Brexiteers.
And can I add that with the way their support is gently melting away as the heat goes on the description is pretty apt.
but the accepted view is that
Assertion
Yes I am grumpy and argumentative tonight - feels good
kimbers maybe, just maybe if Osbourne, Cameron and IMF had come up with some more believable scenarios they may have been held as credible.
as credible as the OBR asking the treasury what they had to promise Nissan to stop them leaving and the Treasurie's reply of -ssshhh its a secret ? 😯
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/business/14923416.Government_refuses_to_disclose_if_financial_promises_were_made_to_Nissan/
nicely sums up the lunacy at heart of our brexishambolic government
You said it was worse for Germany and their [EU]costs are spread between 27 countries rather than being lumped on one.it's a substantially greater cost to fhe EU as a whole than it is to the UK.
And I keep saying this is just factually untrue and if you cannot see it then you are not worth discussing with because you cannot meet the threshold of being able to count. Do i really need to explain to an economist and mathematician why you need to look at what % of our trade is with the EU 45% ish and what % of theirs is with us 4%.my point as I have made many times is they have more to lose and so rationally will want a sensible deal.
you need to be illogic and mathematically illiterate to argue as you do.
There is no way of saying beyond spin and BS, to say it costs the EU more if we leave the free market. Its not even post truth its just a big pile of lies
In essence your argument is that its a bigger fine on a billionaire to be fined 100k than for me to get a 10k fine therefore they have more to lose than i do.
Its just a ludicrous argument.
The cost the UK is clearly more significant. Stop being an arse.
Touche 🙂
I am not sure it is, cumulatively the cost is greater to the EU. You may indeed argue relatively it's greater for the UK. The Dutch alone estimate the cost to them alone is €10bn pa and that's a tiny country. The Germans have to factor in their largest European export market and third largest globally being less attractive plus having to pick up an estimated €5bn a year in extra budget contributions. Then you have to add in the reduced exports the EU will have due to stronger €/£ (this gets even more expensive for Germany if € collapses and DM will be even stronger again)
it is obvious everyone wants a good deal .
but the best deal the uk can get is the one it has now . and you have just thrown it away .
anyway i read the statement and not one mention of the NHS, with all the extra money floating around i would have thought could have bunged a few quid in that direction. But no...
But we're still paying into the EU. Wait until we're out then the NHS will get it all. You'll see.
When will this them and us stuff cease?
Brexshit is a lose:lose scenario. There are no winners*, our fortunes will remain interdependent with those of our major economic partners in Europe whatever.
(*other than the fact that Bojo's hopes of the top seat were quashed and Gove is now on the backbenches where he can do less harm.)
Its a bit of a mess of major proportions - no room for Brexshit smugness. We are all worse off.
The cost is greater but they are more able to bear it as its only 4% of their GDP and 45% of ours. No one argues its the FACTS simply state this just like they state we have a trade deficit with them. To mises the later to claim they will suffer most is disingenuous in the extreme and you must know its total BS as you are not actually economically illiterate.I am not sure it is, cumulatively the cost is greater to the EU. You may indeed argue relatively it's greater for the UK
Oh dear no money for the NHS after all.
What a complete shambles.
Exports are only just over 20% of GDP so EU exports are about 10% of GDP.
a few pages back our local Australian Politics expert mentioned the "backpacker tax" basically up until now you could earn a tax free threshold as a transient worker (Australia a similar amount of working holiday visa's to the numner of EU Migrants to the UK
225,000)
The initial proposal would see these people pay 32.5% tax on mostly low earnings.
The backlash was huge and the government is trying to push through 19% today, the opposition want it at a max of 10%.
The people who employ these guys know that they need them and that at such tax rates people won't do the work (it's not the pay but the tax - the rate originally proposed is what you pay in excess of about £25k UK)
Junkyard - lazarus
mathematician why you need to look at what % of our trade is with the EU 45% ish and what % of theirs is with us 4%.
tbh 45 or 4% probably isn't really what you need to look at, you'd really need to look at individual countries and see where the largest trade exists. that 4% could be skewed to certain countries, but you are using the whole of the eurozone as the financial base.
guess the question that needs asked is per country, what is the percentage of trade.
i don't know, but it does strike me the 4% number could be a little over generous, if the point that's been made is that it won't hurt them, it will probably hurt some more than others.
but the best deal the uk can get is the one it has now
Hmm, that's strange, as we were offered a better deal than the one we had now in the negotiations between Cameron and the EU, that's what was put to us in the referendum, remember?
And the fact is we [b]had[/b] a better deal, before St Tony of Blair handed back a big chunk of our rebate in return for loose promises of CAP reform that never happened
Still, don't let the facts get in the way of good old #remainderbollox
facts and Brexit in same sentence ? 😆
#writte it on a bus
Nigel was presented with a tray of Fererro Roche at a Brexit thank you party today 🙂
Could I ask all you leavers that don't subscribe to the magazine to do so.
Your actions have caused the magazines costs to rise.
You got what you wanted now pay for it.
Posters keep talking in percentages, I am speaking about absolute cost.
cchris we have a terrible deal, one which we would never sign up for from scratch. Did you see Bernard-Henri Levy on Newsnight, Brexit will be much worse for France than the UK
Interesting numbers I saw on the NHS
We pay the Polish £4.5m for treating Brits in Poland
The Poles pay us £1.5m for treating Poles in the UK
Now there are 20,000 (officially just 5,000) Brits in Poland and 800,000 Poles in the UK. So either the Brits are spectacularly less healthy or more likely we don't have the feintest idea what is actually going on.
Weren't you lying about there being millions of Poles in the uk last week Jamba?
We pay the Polish £4.5m for treating Brits in Poland
The Poles pay us £1.5m for treating Poles in the UK
How is the EU to blame for this? Surely that's just the uk not claiming what it is entitled to?
outside the little englander circle jerk
heres a not sanguine look view of farage and 2016
justifiably sweary 🙂
the farage video would be funny if a bunch of alt-right millionaires werent toasting themselves on the day the chancellor announced how much brexit would be costing the country and especially the poorest 🙄
jambalaya - MemberNow there are 20,000 (officially just 5,000) Brits in Poland and 800,000 Poles in the UK. So either the Brits are spectacularly less healthy or more likely we don't have the feintest idea what is actually going on.
They could well be less healthy. Most poles you see in the UK are fairly young. I don't know if the same is true of brits in poland? They could be older, requiring more expensive treatments?
Posters keep talking in percentages, I am speaking about absolute cost.
cchris we have a terrible deal, one which we would never sign up for from scratch. Did you see Bernard-Henri Levy on Newsnight, Brexit will be much worse for France than the UKSo you crash your car, you break a hand but it's OK cause you sent your mate to ice?
jamba, can I just check you're really saying that brexit is a good thing because (you claim) the total damage to the EU27 will be greater than the harm to the UK?
Utterly bonkers.
Here we go again? Don't like the numbers? Numbers are wrong. Wrong kind of experts on the line slowing progress to Utopia
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38087110
The government has defended economic forecasts in the chancellor's Autumn Statement after criticism by some pro-Brexit MPs that they are too gloomy.
Philip Hammond quoted Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predictions of increases in borrowing and reductions in economic growth following Brexit.
Ex-minister Iain Duncan Smith claimed the OBR "hasn't got anything right."
But treasury minister David Gauke said it was right to work on the basis that the OBR forecasts were correct.
Ever wonder if the free unicorn everyone was promised is more like this
[img] 
[/img]
and it's about to make a right mess of the garden
