Hoping for the best, mentally preparing for the worse.
exactly I really dont want my kids to grow up in a country where ignorance and xenophobia dictate policy and end up damaging the economy
I don't think it will be a particularly wise move regarding the advancement of a prosperous capitalist society.
I'm all for moving away from capitalism. But I want a conscious managed transition driven by enlightenment, not a collapse. Because if society collapses backwards then yes, consumption will fall, but people won't learn anything and simply rebuild to do it all over again. And the vulnerable will suffer greatly - like the US great depression but worldwide.
exactly I really dont want my kids to grow up in a country where ignorance and xenophobia dictate
[img]
[/img]These might help
Good plan Mike, but we'll also need a time machine and the address of Guy Justus Oscar Farage.
Even though Epsom voted to remain ,chris grayling wants out and won't reflect the needs of his constituents.
My poll tax is due tomorrow so I've sent him this.Lets see what he says.
Every month I give Epsom and Ewell council £167 in taxes. I’d really rather give it to Epsom hospital.
They could certainly do with the money.
Do you mind if I opt out of paying council tax? I’ve asked all my neighbours and they 100% are with me.
Surely we can’t ignore those kind of results.
Thanks in advance ,.
TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU.
Please don't rely on this for any financial or business planning.
TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU.
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How come no one in the government has a clue what's going on but 2 people on a cycling forum have been given full disclosure of the plans of Enola May?
I see GM have followed Nissans lead and let it be known they will be expecting [s]their publicly undisclosed, taxpayer funded bribe to be paid in full[/s], concerns to be considered, or they're off
Who could possibly have seen that one coming eh?
[i]TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. [/I]
Jamba
It may be priced 'in' globally and the world you live in but no one has the inflation that's going to hit us priced in nor has anyone really understood the basic impact on average folk by the 5-10 years worth of disruption (a time period that you agreed in a earlier post that was likely) that'll we'll likely face.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1882/economics/winners-and-losers-from-weak-pound/
As a rough rule of thumb, a 10% devaluation may increase prices by 2-3%.
Yes and no br
Inflation expectations have reacted to events and are now at a level above the BoE target. People are already concerned/factoring in higher prices.
Brexshiteers have a habit of ignoring the fact that after the vote we have had a very significant injection into the economy/easing of policy as a result of the sharp devaluation of the pound. This has plusses and minusses.
Enola May
😀
I'm just glad I'm not the only one with OMD going round and round in my head.
[i]Theresa May, you should have stayed at home yesterday...[/i]
[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/potential-farage-replacements-included-something-that-has-never-been-out-of-its-cellar-2015051298222 ]New UKIP leaders?[/url]
"Enola May" I think the cargo might explode before we get off the runway
New UKIP leaders?
that's nothing - you should see the UKIP group in the Welsh Assembly:
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Answering on my phone I saw thms nonsense
4.5% comtractio is a statement from May
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-britain-lose-45-gdp-eu-customs-union-a7369181.html
TJ - feel free to demonstrate your lack of understanding of what the 4.5% figure represents or means. You may well be playing the "lets post nonsense" game with Jambas still.
But, we are only trying to prevent your from looking, what's your word, "ignorant" on this issue. Your choice.....
Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession
No they dont, no its not.
And the BOE Governor.
The remarkable thing is that the brexiteers need economic stability to prevent the public realising b4 A50 is triggered that Brexit is going to leave us all poorer
But ...
Hannan
Gove
Hague
Davies
Fox
and even May in her conference speech have attacked Carney(tho today we saw her endorse him desperately!)
Added to the Brexiters attacks on Hammond all theyve done is scare the markets & hurt the £ further - its october's worst performing currency in the world!
even assumiong Carney stays on through 2018 theyve already spooked foreign investors and traders
I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity
I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity
the trouble is they can't handle/spin the reality so the next best option is to blame the messenger.
Klunk - Member
the [s]next best[/s] only option is to blame the [s]messenger[/s] foreigner
it's the brexit way.
Of your list, only Hague and May are of importance and relevance. The views of the others can be parked and ignored.
Hague was more balanced than the headlines would suggest and made some fair points
May is more confusing on the face of it but is playing different audiences. I think that she has realised that her comments at the conference were ill-advised and has come out today in support Carney. She should do so. She also needs to remember that the BoE only has two priorities (inflation, financial stability) and one bag of tricks (monetary policy). The latter works best in conjunction with fiscal (and supply-side) policies which are her responsibility. It is also largely impotent in the face on deleveraging by households and corporates. To mis-quote Keynes, Carney is currently pushing on a piece of string.
Where she is correct is to question the over-relaince on QE. This is a blunt instrument, with limited success that, as she has pointed out, has created unequal rewards. It needs to be ended asap. But Central Banks now have their cocks in the custard as exiting QE is going to be extremely difficult.
I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity
I can. Its hardly like we're talking about intellectual heavyweights here. They're a bunch of bloody clowns. Be honest...... who (except Jammers) didn't think, when those 3 names were announced ... "are you having a ****ing laugh?"
Nothing that has followed has surprised me. I expect it to get a lot worse, as the self-serving morons dig deeper and deeper into the great big pool of shit they've created
Thm
You can keep on saying nonsense but we know its nonsense
The government own briefing paper states this 4.5% contraction is coming but of course you know better
Funny how you keep answering me
Do you realise how silly you look? Fortunately I don't have to read your drivel normally
Im not the one who is looking silly - I understand what was said - I have read the papers behind the briefing and have access to the assumptions in their models and what they mean
You clearly don't. But feel free to wallow in - what's your expression and sneery comment for others? - ignorance here. Everyone can see how silly that looks - we were just trying to help you out.
The government own briefing paper states this 4.5% contraction is coming
No it doesnt. That comment is ignorant of the facts.
You really need to widen you info source (WoS is a v poor choice) and stop blocking links that would help you to understand. Otherwise it becomes a little embarrassing. You have now made the same mistake 4 or 5 times. Do YOU realise how silly you look?
I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity
They're just doing the bidding of the childish/stupid 52%. Whereas they should be saying "get lost you lot, that's childish/stupid and we're not doing it".
The report TJ talks about refers to a drop in GDP [i]per capita[/i] of 4.5% by 2030, based on a hypothetical, post brexit scenario. That does not mean that growth will shrink to -4.5% in a recession, it simply means that our GDP [i]per capita[/i] will be lower in 14 years.
I'm not suggesting this is a good thing, and i don't think thm is either, it's just that this is only one report of many and is not suggesting a contraction of our economy of 4.5%, just that one measure of growth/productivity might be down by around this amount at some point in the future.
I certainly don't see this report as a reason to panic, though it does warn of potential issues that must be addressed, especially regarding productivity, which has been a problem for our economy long before brexit popped up.
Hmm.
Without immigration, our population would shrink, wouldn't it? As immigrants are keeping the birth rate up as I have read.
Whilst probably being good for the environment doesn't this present a serious problem for current economic practises?
Whilst probably being good for the environment doesn't this present a serious problem for current economic practises?
It would mean that our island would gradually become lighter.
Eventually we could run the risk that one strong storm could blow us either crashing into Denmark and Sweden, or worse, out into the Atlantic Ocean. Even if Scotland became independent, it would still suffer the same fate.
If we were blown far enough out across the Atlantic, Donald Trump would be able to claim the UK as a territory of the US, and forcibly convert the entire country into a new luxury golf course.
The government has planned for this already by siting huge numbers of propellers all around the country (disguised as wind turbines obviously). These will be connected via the national grid to Sizewell B.
So I don't think you need to worry - everything is in hand.
Well this is where the fun will start, molgrips. When the section of the UK who voted for Brexit on an anti-immigration basis find out that, post-brexit, we will still have pretty sizeable amounts of immigrants coming in, we will see the full consequences of the forces unleashed over the past 12 months.
Long term, the only people who will be happy with brexit will be the ones who make the most money from it.
All 3 of them...
And Jamba.
The report TJ talks about refers to a drop in GDP per capita of 4.5% by 2030, based on a hypothetical, post brexit scenario.
Better but still not 100% correct
That does not mean that growth will shrink to -4.5% in a recession
100% correct
it simply means that our GDP per capita will be lower in 14 years.
Better but still not 100% correct
The briefing paper summarises a series of papers that were prepared pre-Brexshit vote to identify the various factors that would be affected by it and to consider what impact this may have on the level of economic activity. These were not government figures.
All the papers were based on the same framework (NiGEM) but they used different assumptions
The numbers - although the 4.5% was an average not an actual I believe - indicate the difference between the level of GDP per capita based on their base case scenarios of the UK without Brexshit and the results of the modelling post Brexshit. GDP per capita was not lower in absolute terms, it was less than their base cases over the period to 2030. Different things.
I'm not suggesting this is a good thing, and i don't think thm is either, it's just that this is only one report of many and is not suggesting a contraction of our economy of 4.5%,
So in conclusion
Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession
No they dont. No its not
The government own briefing paper states this 4.5% contraction is coming
No it doesnt.
Some things never change do they 😉
What thm said.
Eloquent bastard. 8)
[i]GDP per capita was not lower in absolute terms, it was less than their base cases over the period to 2030. Different things.[/I]
If our GDP was 4.5% lower in absolute terms by 2030 even David Davies (aka Jamba) would realise that Brexit is a planned train crash, into a loaded A380 in Times Square while the Queen opened a joint UN and G7 meeting 🙂
So if it's [b]only[/b] 4.5% lower than what it could've been, that's still almost a 1/20th lower - or Wales, to put it into perspective...
Or have I read what THM wrote wrongly?
So some people did some sums and said that, without brexit, there will be 20 extra cows in the field by 2030. They then did sums and said that with brexit, there might only be 19 more cows in the field.
Sorry THM, we're really ****ing this up.
Fin - I'm sure to be corrected but as I recall its more like - we currently have 100 cows in a field, the projection without Brexit is that we'll have 130 cows in the field by 2030 but with Brexit we'll only have 125 cows and a calf.
E&OE
Will these cows be able to travel freely around Europe and then retire to Majorca?
good job i'm vegan, don't need no cows...
Guys, its not that hard. Pre-Brexit we had 10 cows in a fields. The Brexhsiteers promised us another 15 cows if we voted LEAVE.
We voted....
....we now have three donkeys and a camel.
The outstanding question....Who has the hump?
(br IMO forget the figures - I am amazed that they were included in a briefing pack at all. As some of the authors pointed out themselves, the numbers are not what is important. It is the understanding of the value drivers and sensitivity of the outputs to relatively small changes in the output that is of interest and then only to those who have responsibility for managing them. Interestingly, in the three papers I have access to, none of them included a fall in £ as great as we have seen to date)
Enough serious stuff - back to the camel
No camels.
Bit too Arabic for the brexit crowd.
As TMH says the report TJ quoted suggested (under it's very pessimistic Brexit scenarios) that GDP would grow but grow by 4.5% less than it would if we Remain. The report is one of the reasons Osbourne is now a back bencher
Be honest...... who (except Jammers) didn't think, when those 3 names were announced ... "are you having a ****ing laugh?
I get that a Labour Party member supporting Remain might say that. As we know from STW political threads you don't have a representative cross section of the UK population. Key Brexiteers in the Brexit posts makes perfect sense. Obviously RemIners hoped to see appointees willing to hijack the process and keep us in the EU
INteresting article today:
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/31/why-all-conservatives-should-want-parliament-to-have-the-final-s/ ]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/31/why-all-conservatives-should-want-parliament-to-have-the-final-s/[/url]
If Leave had been allowed access to the civil service and Treasury maybe we could have come up with our own scenarios and then we could have a more sensible debate. As we have noted before Economists struggle to predict what will happen 1 or 2 years forward never mind 15
Live Parliament statement on Nissan
As we have noted before Economists struggle to predict what will happen 1 or 2 years forward never mind 15
They struggle with 1 or 2 months. An astrologist is as useful as an economist 1 or 2 years forward.