Nobody is disputing the fact that lots of countries want to sign trade deals.
But how long are they going to take and on what terms?
Jamba - when you're talking about how good it all is, what figures are you using? I haven't looked today but about 3 days ago when the growth figures came out I did check and contrary to your opinion, I found
No recession, but every commentator sounding nervous, inflation coming, personal debt at an all time high I believe, manufacturing down, construction down, agriculture down (was anything other than services, which might repeat might be most hit by non-EU trade deals, up?) and growth already slowing.
Not sure I want a Squshqi...
Cant wait till we get signed up with the US Of A and I'm driving my new trans am without any of that treasure island pricing the Evil Union foisted upon us for our Audis und Bimmers.
I Suppose it'll have to be an Aussie Holden though as no doubt there'll be a premium on a US RHD..
(Assuming pound doesn't crash spectacularly when we sign out real )
I Suppose it'll have to be an Aussie Holden though as no doubt there'll be a premium on a US RHD..
Holden are not made in Australia anymore, I assume you want the bogan one with the extra loud pedal and no traction...
(Assuming pound doesn't crash spectacularly when we sign for real )
It will probably have to recover better for that to happen.
Assuming pound doesn't crash spectacularly when we sign out real
The question is how low can we go??
Heathrow & Nissan led to a small rally but NI court bid failure soon saw it tanking again .
The pound exceeds even the most negative expectations every time a brexiter gives a speech, did anyone think it'd be this low already? If Carney quits this week could we see parity with the dollar? Certainly the Euro strong on the back of CETA.
WTF knows how low it'll be by the time we trigger A50, will it have sunk so much that it just doesn't have any further to go?
We are now like the ugly bloke at the disco who feels really lucky to get off with anyone or anything.
Hopefully the exchange rate trickles through to basic costs and swings public opinion before May does something stupid.
And the Brexiters are all desperate no one admit that the economy is going to take a hit 🙄
They don't want the public to realise what economic pain Brexit will bring until it's too late
They are very busy briefing against Hammond...
May really needs to try and assert some discipline, it seems that leaking to the Sunday papers is the way to force policy if you're a europhobic minister.
kimbers the Torygraph is the Brexshit Broadsheet
there is nothing new in the crap that they are publishing - leaks and briefings are part of the game, as bad as that is
Genuinely, what's to our advantage in having free trade agreements with Australia, etc etc. Our farmers won't be able to compete on produce (Australian meat etc) so that's them nailed. What's the minimum / living wage etc in Brazil/Argentina - how do we compete with that? How do we prevent ourselves from having to drown in as much cheap Chinese steel as they can ship here (not good for Port Talbot just down the road from here) as I suspect that those won't be considerations in the rush to do any old trade deal for the face-saving sake of the Brexopaths.
The prime minister of pretences...
Genuinely, what's to our advantage in having free trade agreements with Australia, etc etc. Our farmers won't be able to compete on produce (Australian meat etc) so that's them nailed.
Meat etc isn't that high on the list, Australia & EU are already persuing a free trade agreement so will be at least 3 years ahead of the UK. For stuff like lamb it's mostly the seasonal stuff like NZ that would be the export, everything else from this end will get sucked up into Asia at the moment.
The big gains for Oz would be Wine probably, for the UK depends whats left, pharma is a huge export market but as the charts show UK/Oz is way below places like Germany.
In general free trade is good, but it's not just opening it all up, most deals are structured to reduce quotas and tariffs over time (10-20 years in some cases) to allow for the natural changes.
In realistic terms why is the UK a good place for steel making when all of the raw ingredients are imported. Would it not be better to work with the countries producing the Ore to make better steel products there then import whats needed? In the short term not good for places like Port Talbot but what could you do with the investments and subsidy cash instead to make the area better in the long term.
Nipper99, my take on free trade agreements, who needs it more Brexit Britain or the rest of the world. I may be overly pessimistic but the best way to get an agreement. Wait, let the UK stew and when desperation sets in then offer something. Obviously on the terms that suit them.
In the case of the US or China, or even the EU, the UK is by far the smaller party and really won't have a huge amount of influence over the agreement.
But any agreement means the Brexiters can claim victory. After all the UK did so well out of the agreement with the US after the second world war that saw virtually every technology given away.
I just can't see that there will be a deal
Unless May wants to go for a Norway option, with payments and some freedom of movement.
It won't satisfy the 'kippers or the tabloids, especially not feasible in the time they have.
So WTO and a whole lot of pain it is then
Have jamby and redwood ever been seen in the same room?"The real argument is that the Chancellor may face wacky figures that could lead him to spend less or think about future tax rises. It could lead him to think about a punishment Budget."It would be wrong because the forecasts are clearly going to be wrong.
Faith is a fascinating thing to behold,baseless but fascinating.
So if say China demands visa free travel / freedom of movement we'll suck it up.
Not really sure why I keep referring to 'we' as I sadly don't feel we are a we anymore so that should be the Brexiteer's will agree it and inflict it on the rest of us.
Does anyone know anyone in say Germany, Sweden etc that would like to adopt a housetrained nearly middle-aged solicitor and his cat.
Manufacturing - better
More lies from Jamba
Manufacturing was down you big fibber.
So if say China demands visa free travel / freedom of movement we'll suck it up.
If China represented 50% of our trade then probably 😉
Leave said there would be a bump in the road in the event of Brexit but it would be nothing like the Armageddon predicted by the Remainers. That seems to be pretty much the case.
IGM et all - in the latest stats the economy GREW. The rate of growth slowed but it grew.
Kimbers, FX and other markets are already pricing in a lot of uncertainty, £/$ could well rise substantially whatever deal is struck including no deal and a hard Brexit. What happens to the $ if Trumpnwins ? Or Hillary wins and the FBI investigation moves to an indictment / impeachment. Then we have the eurozone/Greek crises. It would be a very brave man to make too many predictions.
It's clear A50 will be triggered by end March. That's old news as far as the markets are concerned. When it's triggered nothing much is going to happen, we will still be in the EU. I am aure we'll have a crescendo of moaing from Remainers but that's hardly news either.
Jamba - this is merely the ripples - the flood is yet to come
WE HAVE NOT LEFT YET, WE HAVE NOT EVEN STARTED THE PROCESS
Yet already the damage is huge.
Leave said there would be a bump in the road in the event of Brexit but it would be nothing like the Armageddon predicted by the Remainers. That seems to be pretty much the case.
So to clarify is this a bump? I'm assuming this means we can expect the same when Brexit happens (or at least when the A50 terms are read out - not sure if a Paul Merton & Ian Hislop double act would do it justice 😉 )
It would be a very brave man to make too many predictions.
I'll be brave, if any of those things happen it will hit those with an already weakened economy worse.
Leave said there would be a bump in the road in the event of Brexit but it would be nothing like the Armageddon predicted by the Remainers. That seems to be pretty much the case.
The forecasts by just about everyone but the brexy-zealots were based on an immediate triggering of A50 - which is now looking doubtful for March due to the court cases and appeals.
IGM et all - in the latest stats the economy GREW. The rate of growth slowed but it grew.
Reference please. Overall 0.5% growth but only services actually grew. You claimed manufacturing grew - it didn't. Please confirm your source. (I think you said you helped people invest pension money - hope you use better data when you do that)
In 100 years time it will be Brexiters not Guy Fawkes on the bonfire each year. Just thought I'd go for a topical reference.
On the plus side I'm taking advantage of the great prices at Rapha and Morvelo at the moment 😉 while the pound flounders
See some good news, thank you all for your suffering now back t'mill and don't steal any coal.
As in bump.
in the latest stats the economy GREW. The rate of growth slowed but it grew.
So you think that's it then, it's all done and dusted? No more problems to come?
Also, Jamba...
No, she did not...
No Molgrips, scope for more pain from many sources from Brexit specifc to a eurozone collapse. Absolutely no doubt in my mind the future is brighter out than in.
Manufacturing more volatile, prior qtr looks like an outlier, pretty steady (wonder how Tata steel plant is reflected?). Service growth more steady. Struggling to see a Brexit related Armageddon here
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Jamba can you read? We have not even started the process to leave yet and despite what you attempt to claim all the news so far is really bad - and its only the very start.
@fin25 well I listened to the interview and I posted what I took from it. A collapse in the NI Accord due to Brexit is just another thing to add to the list of Project Fear which will be proven to be nonsense
The doom and gloomers here want to see bad news everywhere. However reality is simply not willing to play ball.
Best predicted growth of the G7
TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU. You are pathologically determined to see bad news so you can say "told you so" and an excuse for another Scotish Referendum.
The EU is a corrupt and failed political and economic project. We are far far better off out than in
[s]The EU[/s] Brexit is a corrupt and failed political and economic project.
Fixed that for you.
TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in.
How can it be - we dont know the terms yet?
The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU.
On the contrary, we will have just triggered A50 and started the hard/real part of a process of mutual harm. Relationships will get a lot worse. That is a given.
Jamba - you so hate the EU that you cannot see the catastrophe coming. Yes its going to get a lot worse when the banks have to leave to do business in the EU. When Nissan realises May cannot possibly keep tarif free trade in cars, when the pound continues to tank, as the balance of payments gets worse.
Its an utter economic disaster on the way but your irrational hatred of the EU makes you blind to this
Best predicted growth of the G7? - Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession
The doom and gloomers here want to see bad news everywhere. However reality is simply not willing to play ball.
You're doing exactly the same thing, just from the other side of the argument.
The actual reality is that we just don't know what is going to happen, so by all means debate what might or might not happen, but this entrenchment achieves nothing and smacks of a lack of confidence in one's argument.
Also, that comment's a bit rich coming from someone who managed to convince themselves that Arlene Foster campaigned to remain just to fit their own entrenched point of view.
I'll say it again...
Say it with me if you like.
She did not.
Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession
Please stop posting false statements - they do not become true through repetition. You have already been corrected on this one.
Prices are going up, foreigners are still here and I'm not free.
Who do I complain to?
Bit of an aside, but you didn't sit through Trolls this afternoon. Or if you did you'll know what I mean.
The evil character 'Chef' is clearly modelled on Theresa May.
The doom and gloomers here want to see bad news everywhere. However reality is simply not willing to play ball.
bought any marmite lately?
Lord Farage! Best get the favourite suit pressed Jamby, you must be very proud.
The Times has an article advising you to buy stuff before "The brexit chill" kicks in. They are hardly remoaners. A shit storm is coming.
I'm so glad that bigotry and hatred now has an actual price we can see in good old pounds and pence.
Well ****ing done you stupid ****s.
You are pathologically determined to see bad news so you can say "told you so"
I dunno if that's aimed at the rest of us but Jam - I really really desperately want you to be right and me to be wrong. I want to live in a tolerant open prosperous country, as do most of the remainers on here.
I'll get absolutely no satisfaction from being right, believe me, and I doubt they will either. I'm negative because to me, it just doesn't look good.
duckman - Member
Lord Farage! Best get the favourite suit pressed Jamby, you must be very proud.
mirror, mirror on the wall.....
Molgrips +1
Hoping for the best, mentally preparing for the worse.
As a decidedly misanthropic anarchist, I'm really looking forward to brexit.
Unlike Jamba and his mates, I don't think it will be a particularly wise move regarding the advancement of a prosperous capitalist society.
In fact, if Trump gets in as well, I might just be lucky enough to bear witness to the final crisis of capitalism and the great revolution which will inevitably follow.
So keep it up boys, you keep shitting in your own soup and calling it caviar.
Eat up.