Knowing one of the cretins in charge personally, I can honestly say that I wouldn't put him in charge of a chicken coop at sundown. He even takes his aide (Adam?) on holiday to help sort out thing like "where did I put my ski boots" and "which table are we on tonight?" (the same table they always sit you at and have done for the past decade).
under it's very pessimistic Brexit scenarios
Not true - the £ drop is already greater than that used in the different models
(Adam?)
Adam Werritty ?
If Leave had been allowed access to the civil service and Treasury maybe we could have come up with our own scenarios and then we could have a more sensible debate
Nah they'd still have written a load of lies on a bus or used pictures of refugees to stir up fear and hate
They were called up numerous times on using the 350mil figure and still chose to keep pushing the lie. (As did our own resident VL campaigner)
If Leave had been allowed access to the civil service and Treasury maybe we could have come up with our own scenarios and then we could have a more sensible debate.
The Treasury was only one of the models used. Leave had access to the base models as any of us do (well the results anyway).
Of course, we know what Leave did when presented with real evidence - dismiss the role of experts. And they are doing the same now with Carney.
Actually can't believe Carney hasn't quit today, seeing it through til the end of brexit just seems masochistic, given the stick he's been getting off the brexit boys.
Presumably it'd be easy to update the nos including the pound at the level it is, and presumably it'd be better nos - well, according to the Brexiters they do say it's better that the pound is worth less?
@kimbers £10bn & £190m are the figures I used, just saying. Budget contributions are forecast to rise of course.
TMH is lower £ a negative for their model, input or output ? I was referring to things like assuming there was not a single trade deal signed in 15 years. Any 90 page economic report full of formulas you know it's bollix never mind one presented as part of an Election / Referendum
Any 90 page economic report full of formulas you know it's bollix
Wow.
Genuinely.
Wow.
You're not even being ironic, are you?
jambalaya - Member
@kimbers £10bn & £190m are the figures I used, just saying. Budget contributions are forecast to rise of course.
Jambs, do I have cut and paste the bit where you said £350m [b]again[/b]! ? You are the perfect example of vote leave and Brexiters, still unable to accept that you lied
The £ affects different variables in different ways at different times - we have discussed this before. It not a simple good v bad relationship. The important thing is to understand how this works!!
Actually can't believe Carney hasn't quit today, seeing it through til the end of brexit just seems masochistic, given the stick he's been getting off the brexit boys.
No point moving back to Canada at the current exchange rates.
[i]The £ affects different variables in different ways at different times - we have discussed this before. It not a simple good v bad relationship. The important thing is to understand how this works!! [/I]
and?
Go ahead Kimbers - just post the link to the post
The Brexiters are still at it, they really are an amazingly dim lot
Rees- Mogg
“I think the uncertainty was bad, but I still think he ought to have gone because of his bias over Brexit.”Some pro-Brexit Conservative MPs aren’t best pleased that Mark Carney will remain at the Bank of England until 2019, says the City AM newspaper.
One leading Tory brexiteer told them that:
My sense is that if [Carney] is going to stay to 2019 he needs to find a way to row in behind the Prime Minister and start to find a way to be a bit more positive.
I would like him to stay and do a good job, and demonstrate some enthusiasm for leaving the EU, seeing as we are going to.
I've said it before Jamba, and I'll say it again...
No
She
Didn't
and what BR?
there isnt space here to go through all the variables and the different weightings. Each model varies.
I did make an error earlier, several included an immediate 20% devaluation in the ST, greater than I first said/implied and pretty good for people of zero value!!
jambalaya - Member
Go ahead Kimbers - just post the link to the post
Jambas - kimbers is correct, you did state this. But don't worry so did Give and he lied live on tv on pretty much every detail about the £350m
Less than zero value.
And, how about telling us how it works then?
Please don't say it's too complicated 🙂
I get that a Labour Party member supporting Remain might say that. As we know from STW political threads you don't have a representative cross section of the UK population. Key Brexiteers in the Brexit posts makes perfect sense. Obviously RemIners hoped to see appointees willing to hijack the process and keep us in the EU
Actually as a centre left, middle class remainer, I was quite pleased to see those clowns in the Brexit posts. Easier to jettison them and be clear Brexit want workable.
Yes Klunk, Adam Werrity: from the mod incident.
Bungling scheming half wits, the steptoe & son of politics.
how many hours do you have?
ok here's a flavour from one of the models and the ST impact
The world that emerges is one in which sterling depreciates immediately, by around 20 per cent, against a basket of currencies. This drives inflationary pressure, causing CPI to jump by between 2-4 percentage points more than our Remain-based forecast in 2017. Investment falls dramatically, just over 10 per cent in the third quarter of 2016 due to the direct impact of uncertainty. This effect is magnified in 2017 as, in addition, widening borrowing premia pushes up the user cost of capital. Real GDP is broadly unaffected in 2016 as the decline in domestic demand is offset by a positive net trade contribution derived from sterling depreciation. The level of GDP will be 1 per cent lower in 2017, as domestic factors dominate, with the level of GDP deviating from our Remain baseline by 2.3 per cent by 2018. This translates into a reduction in the growth rate of GDP of 0.8 and 1.3 percentage points in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Our central forecast results do not imply that the economy will go into recession as a consequence of a vote to leave, but the likelihood of such an event increases.The endogenous response of the MPC is represented by a Taylor Rule using the parameters published for the Bank of England’s model COMPASS (see Burgess et al. 2013). In the active monetary policy scenario, following an initial reduction in response to the shock, the MPC then tightens interest rates from 2017 due to the pronounced deviation of the rate of inflation from the baseline profile. This tightening weighs on demand over the period we present. We think it more likely that the MPC would look through this rise in inflation and keep interest rates on our baseline path.
You really want more???
This is from the exec summary too - trust me, dont worry about the nitty-gritty at this stage
Actually as a centre left, middle class remainer, I was quite pleased to see those clowns in the Brexit posts. Easier to jettison them and be clear Brexit want workable.
tbf they are doing a rather good job so far, fortuantely hannan,gove & rees-mogg want to get themselves in on the action too, 😆
Ta, and is tightening of interest rates, increasing?
We seem to be at a turning point right now br IME
Yields are now rising, inflation expectations have risen and $ liquidity is tightening - market trends that are pre-empting moves in official rates
Central Banks have a tough 12 months ahead of them. Good job Carney locked down 2019 today!!
I cant believe that you lot are still banging on about this. I love an enthusiast!
Interestingly re inflation, they were saying today (R4 obv.) that prospective inflation was too great to be 'looked through' so rates could go up a fair bit. Inevitably some people will have taken out massive fixed rate loans v recently and look super clever with hindsight whilst those on variables will feel sick.
Finally the government will get to deflate (??) some its debt mountain and corporate pension fund deficits can be re-valued.
Good time to fix a mortgage then?
you might be a bit late mol! woild need to check
that is certainly the weight of opinion today.
glad we fixed for 5 years recently .
We seem to be at a turning point right now br IME
Carney was so quick to lower rates (before any data suggesting a negative impact from the vote) that I assumed he did it purely to give himself some room to put them right back up again once the inevitable inflation hit, but without causing too much damage as ANY move whatsoever towards normalising rates will see the debt crisis become very real indeed...
There's also the small matter of US data suggesting another rate rise before Xmas...
It really feels like the calm before the storm at the moment...
Prior to the referendum, I thought to myself, "you'd have to be on drugs to vote for something so stupid".
[url= 
]Brexiters were literally on drugs[/url]
[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-map-shows-how-brexit-different-parts-of-the-uk-are_uk_57691f46e4b01fb658641757 ]edit to add leave voters map for comparrison[/url]
cchris2lou - Member
glad we fixed for 5 years recently .
+1 did a 5yr fixed, last year
fingers crossed that things have settled by 2020 and renewal
know a few people whove maxed out on trackers who could be hurting, including my brexit voting brother 🙄
So various Japanese firms are getting offers to relocate into the EU and the govrnment refuse to publish the deal they reached with nissan
Lets see you spin this one leavers
One thing the vote shows is how principled people are in this country.
We are prepared to sacrifice our jobs and homes to be able to say "we are free".
Stick that in your pipe EU.
"Who's laughing now."
Quite obvious that the Japanese know the details of the Nissan deal. Nissan is in the process of buying Mitsubishi.
They want the same deal and they are going to get it.
Lucky 350m a week is available for fund all those great deals.
You can't put a price on taking back control, zippy
Clark Greg referenced the carmaker supply line interconnectivity thingy in the debate yesterday
He reckons the EU will allow tariff free access, so as not to mess that up, Im not convinced that economic expediency will trump the free market access & freedom of movement redline that the EU claim
but the government are beginning to accept that we might have to pay in an awful lot if we were to get the access
that 350m 🙄 is getting split an awful lot of ways
you might be a bit late mol! woild need to check
Barclays 3.49% for 5 years at my LTV. Could be worth a shot.
amusing to see how the biases express themselves in the headlines today
FT: Mark Carney to stay as CB Governor until 2019 - help steer UK through Brexshit
Brexshitgraph: Carney to quit straight after Brexshit- wont serve full term
😀
I fixed for 5 years just before the 2008 crash during the hysteria about interest rates just in time to watch the rates tumble. I tried to work out how much extra that cost once but it was all too painful!
[conspiracy_mode]
Anyone else wondering if Rudd's call on not investigating Orgreave is because they don't want to anger the police before the Brexit riots which will come when the public realise exactly what leaving the EU will mean.
Or is it simply because the smoking gun might put the likes of Lord Tebbit (and fellow conspirators in the pre-planned assault on strikers) in court?
[/conspiracy_mode]
Sympathies nipper. But that's the problem with so much distortion in markets. It becomes almost impossible to plan/make sensible investment decisions. Interest rates have been grotesquely manipulated for so long now that it is becoming almost impossible for them to be normalised in an orderly fashion.
Any people claim that's we live in a free market, capitalist society!!!
[i]One thing the vote shows is how principled people are in this country.
We are prepared to sacrifice our jobs and homes to be able to say "we are free".
Stick that in your pipe EU.
"Who's laughing now." [/I]
I think you'll find (with the exception of those against the EU purely on principle, ie Jamba and the Brexit3) that most of the rest probably didn't even consider the risks at all.
#unintendedconsequences
[I]We seem to be at a turning point right now br IME[/I]
More of a tipping point IMO, and I do feel we're now looking into the abyss. Although maybe it's an age thing, as I'm +50 y/o and don't want to cope with 5-10 years of difficult times to get to the 'promised land'. I want to be retired before 60 y/o and the way my pensions/investments are been hammered it's looking less likely this can happen.