Does it mean total access to our benefit and health system or just freedom to work?
Employing people but not giving the access to healthcare is idiotic
especially the NHS? is the countries biggest employer of immigrants
and they currently put in more than they take out
binners - Member...Christ only knows what our economy will look like by that point
the point is, you've missed the point.
The Daily Mail, The Sun, etc. don't care what happens. Whatever happens they can spin it as either:
A)'johnny foreigner still telling us what to do'
or B) 'our brilliant negotiators have conquered Europe!' - after they finally cobble together some half-arsed unworkable trade deal.
there is no outcome that can't be turned in an opportunity to drum up nationalistic xenophobia - Which is what the important people really want.
Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe. People forget how low WTO tariffs are on most goodsNon EU migrants are predominantly highly paid / skilled business people and students paying premium Uni fees.
So deal a crippling blow to both the UK and the biggest economy in the world and our biggest trading partner.
The UK needs a broad range of immigration both long and short term. In fact it was working very well up until now...
Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe. People forget how low WTO tariffs are on most goods
dont be ridiculous, look what economic analysis shows...
One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it. If, on the other hand, the official Leave campaign adopts it, the Remain side will be counting its blessings.
of course thats just from some sort of ultra biased pro euro economists, right?
well actually........
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-37676186 ]Hooray for taking back control[/url]
Is this the kind of thing we'll get to do more of?
As alluded to on the last page, "Hard Brexit" is the only actual choice available to us. No other option will occur from the negotiations.
And any deviation from this will cost loads of money, in fact I reckon we'll end up in 5 years time actually paying more into the EU than we do now. Any Brexiters prepared to say otherwise?
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AmwnfslT2YSY ]Have a read of this[/url]
Now it's not good news all that, wether we are in or out, the Euro collapsing would cause a hell of a problem for us, however it will still be better if politically we're not tied to what's about to happen over there.
Oh dear
Number 10: PM "has full confidence" in Chancellor,
And
"respects the independence of the bank of england" and is "clear in her support" of Carney
Non EU migrants are predominantly highly paid / skilled business people and students paying premium Uni fees.
41% of EU migrants are coming for a definite job, but only 21% of non-EU migrants are.
[img] 
[/img]
32% of migrants from the EEA have a degree (compared to around 21% of UK natives).
69% of migrant workers from EU14 countries are in highly skilled jobs.
[img] 
[/img]
(Sauces: [url= https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/ ]1[/url], [url= https://infacts.org/briefings/the-inflow-european-migration-into-britain/ ]2[/url], [url= https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/364 ]3[/url])
41% of EU migrants are coming for a definite job, but only 21% of non-EU migrants are
alternatively 31% of EU migrants are coming to find a job but don't have one lined up, but only 8% of non-EU migrants are chancing their luck?
etc
however it will still be better if politically we're not tied to what's about to happen over there.
Want to give 3 good reasons?
alternatively 31% of EU migrants are coming to find a job but don't have one lined up
What's wrong with that? Good luck to them.
[url= http://centreforentrepreneurs.org/cfe-releases/migrants-behind-one-in-seven-uk-companies/ ]17.2% of migrants set up their own business[/url] (thus creating jobs!), compared to just 10.4% of UK natives.
Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe.
A lady elephant is walking through the forest when an ant sees her and says
"Hmmm, I'm gonna get me a piece of that ass".
He climbs up the elephant's back leg and gets to work with his ant-sized willy. At that moment a coconut falls off a tree and hits the elephant on the head.
"Ouch!" says the elephant.
"Yeah, baby, suffer!!" shouts the ant.
alternatively 31% of EU migrants are coming to find a job but don't have one lined up, but only 8% of non-EU migrants are chancing their luck?
Anecdotally I know quite a few British people in Luxembourg here "trying their luck" and I know (via friends, relatives etc) of a number in France too. I'd be willing to bet lots of people move within Europe to chase a lifestyle/dream etc.
Can anyone point me to where May has confirmed hard brexshit? All I can see is that she has stated that the distinction between hard and soft is a false one.
Jambas why are still ignoring the fact that EU migrants contribute more than non-EU ones. There is no logic to your argument in favour of prioritising non EU migranta unless this is another idea to make us poorer
[i]Can anyone point me to where May has confirmed hard brexshit? All I can see is that she has stated that the distinction between hard and soft is a false one. [/i]
Therefore there is only ONE option, out.
that's Tusks view
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37677973 ]mad as a bag of ferrets[/url]
mikewsmith - Member
however it will still be better if politically we're not tied to what's about to happen over there.Want to give 3 good reasons?
Don't know about three but one will do for me, pray it doesn't happen any time soon, but when it happens, if we are still tied politically then we as taxpayers will inevitably be part of the fallout. I've no doubt we'll still have to end up contributing to the Eu budget if only to ensure the city boys get their money passport and God knows our stupid ass banks are leveraged up to their asses in Euro debt, but picture the situation and nobody really wants to contemplate a North South split, but Italy, Greece and to a certain extend Spain are pretty much ****ed, France isn't exactly in good shape either, where do you think they will turn for help?
Better we're out of it now, the longer we stay, the greater our exposure imv
So 3 good reasons Greece, Italy, Spain, will they do?
as a member we had fully collateralised support for any funding
outside we dont (IMF etc)
861 people surveyed - wow!
Outside, would we really need collateralised support of any further exposure?
We're already part of the IMF in or out of the EU,
We have exposure to the ECB, not big but 55+ million of the banks paid up capital (Germany 1.9+ billion)
Will we continue to be part of the ECB, I have no idea, just another bit that has to be unravelled I guess, but I ask you, read the article do you really want to stay a part of all that?
861 people surveyed - wow!
In an online poll. So basically about as scientific as the polls we have on here about what socks to wear. 😀
(I completely agree that the gov [i]should[/i] set out its strategy & goals and that parliament [i]should[/i] debate them - but that poll is meaningless)
read the article do you really want to stay a part of all that?
oh were we in the € ?
so the plan is to destabilise and weaken our economy for 2 years of tawdry and ultimately futile negotiations just before an apparently impending financial crash
genius !
Sorry Ross I don't understand...
The BSers used to peddle the lie that as members of the EU we had financial liabilities towards an EZ bailout. This is totally untrue both in theory, law and precedent (eg the last Greek support)
Any exposure via the IMF is totally independent of our EU status
...but I appreciate that it was in the BSers interests to muddy the waters here
And that's it.
The force of the morons has gotten to the intellectuals amongst us and decided to pull out of the UK financial marketplace here in the U.K. and move to Frankfurt. 2 very large Banks are off, a loss of 4000 jobs here.
Morons.
And any deviation from this will cost loads of money, in fact I reckon we'll end up in 5 years time actually paying more into the EU than we do now. Any Brexiters prepared to say otherwise?
Yup. We'll pay zero or an absolute fraction of what we paid before worst case. Personally I will be disappointed if we pay anything other than zero.
Graham those stats make perfect sense as it difficult for a non-EU person to get a visa to come here and look for work. As you can see between Education and joining someone (i.e. husband/wife) that's 2/3rds of non-EU migrants.
TMH we've done the secured debt discussion before, secured with worthless IOUs. read a Bloomberg piece today about cash outflows from Italy to Germany.
Why the accelerating outflows from Italy? One explanation is that people are worried about the state of the country's banks, which are suffering the consequences of bad lending, poor governance and a new euro-area oversight system that makes rescues difficult. Another is political: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has staked his fate on a December government-reform referendum that, if it goes against him, [b]could strengthen opponents who want to force a vote on whether Italy should remain in the EU[/b]. In that context, it's not surprising that some depositors prefer not to hold Italian euros, given the chance that they might eventually be converted into lira.Either way, the capital flight doesn’t speak well of confidence in the European project -- something EU leaders will have to keep in mind as they negotiate the terms of Britain's exit.
lf we where in the EU when euro / Greece / Portugal / Italy / Spain blew as an absolute minimum our budget contribution would go through the roof as part of the calculation is relative economic strength. Then we'd have the whole vested interest argument from the EU that we should fund a bailout and the possibility (likelihood ?) of further tax harmonisation as the EU has to pay the bills somehow.
The less dependent we are on Europe the better, if that comes about as part of an EU exit then so be it
2 very large Banks are off, a loss of 4000 jobs here.
Who exactly Bikebouy ?
Commerzbank has laid off 20% of it's worldwide workforce (tiny bank only 8000 anyway)
Deutsche is in freefall, 1000's of layoff's globally and no end in sight
Job losses in finance have been in the 200,000 (?) + range over last 8 years, Brexit is irrelevant. Changes in global regulation, reduced profitability, de-risking away from London centric Investment Banking and advisory
Brexit is a convenient excuse. The writing has been on the wall since 2009
TMH we've done the secured debt discussion before, secured with worthless IOUs. read a Bloomberg piece today about cash outflows from Italy to Germany.
Yes and you were wrong then and you are now (secured with worthless IOUs). The Bloomberg piece is a separate issue so I wont fall into the trap of lazy association.
We decided to provide emergency funding for Greece last time. [b]This was fully collateralised and paid back IN FULL. Under EU law we have no financial liability towards the EZ.[/b] That has been re-confirmed recently. So it is important to cease pretending otherwise.
It would be helpful if people did not perpetuate lies in this area.
If you knew anything about the Banking industry you'd know who.
We're restressing June's submission based on 12% downturn on PD/LGD Risk loss rates.
Let's hope you can all pay your mortgage chaps.
except May is now considering paying billions into the EU budget to keep passporting in the city
"considering" such a convenient journalistic word. I wrote to my MP and told her if the City wants passporting they should pay for it in it's entirety via a new bank levy. As I posted before the UK banks have been scaling back their European operations including selling them and/or closing them down as they make no money. Passporting is a bit of a red herring IMO.
Let's hope you can all pay your mortgage chaps.
When imported inflation feeds though (2017) and the BoE is forced to stop stealing off savers and normalise rates, the real exposures to the housing market will become very evident. It will be v unpleasant in the housing mkt at that point - the BoE did the numbers before so they will try to delay the inevitable.
Passporting is a bit of a red herring IMO.
😯
As I posted before the UK banks have been scaling back their European operations including selling them and/or closing them down as they make no money
that's a pretty large stretch... lots of the banks (assuming we're not talking about the branch of the Halifax in the high street) in the UK are UK arms of European banks or those from further afield. They are more likely to close their London arms than they are to shut down, say, Paris or Frankfurt. So in reality, with the end of the "passport" the UK banking sector is more likely at risk than those in Europe.
Graham those stats make perfect sense as it difficult for a non-EU person to get a visa to come here and look for work.
It's not going to get any easier in the post-Brexit immigration clampdown is it?
As you can see between Education and joining someone (i.e. husband/wife) that's 2/3rds of non-EU migrants.
And since 32% of the EEA migrants already have a degree, there is a quite a lot less in the "study" category.
And.. this last week where Nissan are due to move car production back into Europe.
I said it would happen, BMW will be next.
[url= http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/may-offers-nissan-deal-on-driverless-cars-to-soften-brexit-blow-765kmrhmv ]Link to The Times, Nissan to quit Wearside[/url]
It does seem like Brexit is a religious belief for some people. There is only one true way, yes you'll be poorer in the short term but the afterlife will be prosperous. Blind obedience is required. Logic, facts and reason are not welcome.
And the Spanish Inquisition is well and truly expected.
igm - Member
It does seem like Brexit is a religious belief for some people. There is only one true way, yes you'll be poorer in the short term but the afterlife will be prosperous. Blind obedience is required. Logic, facts and reason are not welcome.
treasonous igm, treasonus
to the tower with you
I've already accepted my fate Kimbers.
It's worse than mere treason - I'm a Scot living in England. I'm an immigrant.
PS Was I the only one that thought Bremoaners referred to moaning Brexiteers - you know, we voted to leave why can't democracy end now with this result? Why haven't we sent the immigrants home yet?
Apparently it doesn't. Mad.
Not strictly true that we don't have any exposure, the ECB has 55million of ours as part of its market capitalisation and that was the subject at hand in that article so in the greater scheme of things 55 mil these days, a drop in the Ocean, but the rest of what Jambalaya is saying is basically the jist of my meaning, we've been part of something that has been growing like topsy in its liability, the UK has been trying to deal via austerity with is own problem and the more sensible financial institutions have been deleveraging their EU exposure, primarily due to the lack of any control that we are able to wield on the European situation.
So if you can no longer control something like that, to use an analogy a bit like a joint bank account with a soon to be ex profligate wife, better sort it while you still can then close the frikking thing down before she takes you down with her.
Just to annoy Theresa May and flag waving little Englanders everywhere
https://teespring.com/citizen-of-nowhere#pid=389&cid=100029&sid=front
Ros - ok, we are shareholder (minute) in ECB but I will still reject the idea that we "are on the hook" for a bailout in the EZ as Jambas and other continue to suggest.
That is not true.
“Where the beneficiary Member State is a Member State whose currency is the euro, the granting of Union financial assistance shall be conditional upon the enactment of legally binding provisions, with a dedicated arrangement for that purpose having been put in place prior to disbursement, [b]guaranteeing that the Member States whose currency is not the euro are immediately and fully compensated for any liability they may incur as a result of any failure by the beneficiary Member State to repay the financial assistance in accordance with its terms.[/b]”
Counncil Regulation Amendment, 4 August 2015
to use an analogy a bit like
Is that really anything like our respective national situations? Or are you just using rhetoric to try and justify a preconceived point?
TMH we've been round this loop before. The € is the very epicentre of the EU amd they have made a total dogs breakfast of it. It shows everything that is wrong and dysfunctional about the political project
If you knew anything about the Banking industry you'd know who.
Meow
Banking as we knew it is done, toast. The European Sovereign debt crises will be far worse than the retail driven credit crises of 2007-9 and many banks and indeed countries won't make it through intact
Brexit is a bump in the road, a side event to the main [s]event[/s] catastrophe
