When is this euro crash going to happen?
How should they prevent it from happening?
When it does happen how will brexit insulate us from it?
According to THM / Jamba the euro collapse was due two years ago from old threads. the fact the euro is stronger than the £ is irrelevant. Its a failed project and will collapse in 2014.
TMH we've been round this loop before. The € is the very epicentre of the EU amd they have made a total dogs breakfast of it. It shows everything that is wrong and dysfunctional about the political project
True but so what? We are not part of the €
Still we will have some folk coming on soon, happy that it has endured despite the appaling consequences that it has bought on the poor and young across Europe. A new class of leftie xenophobie who don't give a toss about the vulnerable in other countries. Probably vote UKIP or SNP.
When is this euro crash going to happen? It's just a matter of when not if
How should they prevent it from happening? Full fiscal and political union with fiscal transfers from Germanynto the lazy Southerners 😉
When it does happen how will brexit insulate us from it? It won't, it's irrelevant. We are not part of the Euro. Of course a disorderly collapse will be bad for us Brexit or not. Any Brexshiter crowing or looking forward to EA weakness is simply being stupid.
TJ trying reading the latest book from your chief econ adviser about the euro
[quote=tjagain ]According to THM / Jamba the euro collapse was due two years ago from old threads. the fact the euro is stronger than the £ is irrelevant. Its a failed project and will collapse in 2014.
Maybe, but if you were reading THM you'd notice that he is arguing against jamba and considers that point to be irrelevant - the fundamental issue being that membership of the EU does not mean we are part of the Eurozone and hence we have no exposure to any crisis which might result. Or at least our exposure is just the same whether or not we are part of the EU.
My take on this is that in this particular case jamba is busy spinning (for a change) whilst THM is telling it pretty straight.
"Full fiscal transfers from North to the South" so gifts then. Well they (Germany etc) don't have enough money
TJ the BoE / FSA (regulator) required banks to have a Greek default / euro collapse scenario plan back in 2010. Greece hasn't been bailed out the eurozone is just trying to save their own @rses
Off to Switzerland today, let's see if anyone mentions it 🙂
"Gifts" in the same way England gives "gifts" to Scotland. Or rich people in Kensington give "gifts" to homeless people.
TJ the BoE / FSA (regulator) required banks to have a Greek default / euro collapse scenario plan back in 2010. Greece hasn't been bailed out the eurozone is just trying to save their own @rses
and I hope they still have one along with a lot of other banks that have nothing to do with the EU, if not they are not being prepared. Anyone who thinks a Euro zone meltdown will be contained by not being in the EU is an idiot.
Maybe I'm just thick but can someone explain to me why everybody voted for kicking out foreigners is inviolate and the will of the people but the £350m a minute for the NHS gets **** all and that's just tough so stop whinging?
@metalheart I once described a project management situation in a large organisation where I worked that was like driving the wrong way down a one way street, the faster you go the less likely anyone is to notice until it's too late or you have hit the point of no return, unfortunatley in this case the driver is also drunk and dellusional. If they allow a pause or a discussion the reality of the situation will become apparent (it already is hence the step up in the gears - 88mph here we come and back in time we go)
"Full fiscal transfers from North to the South" so gifts then.
No - economics 101 - a simple, basic requirement of the system. Surpluses have to be recycled otherwise the system breaks.
Read Varoufakis (one of your Greek friends) on the global minotaur
aracer - THM said more than a couple of years ago that the euro was a failed experiment, Greece would be forced out within weeks and the euro would collapse.
One only has to look at the economic and social chaos across S Europe to recognise that the Euro has failed. How much youth employment and wage deflation do you need TJ before you accept facts. And you pretend to be LW and yet accept such social deprivation. Very odd.
Again do some reading - as you claim you do - start with Varoufakis' account. It's very good and he is a leftie too, albeit a well educated one (not an oxymoron)
This isnt wishywasy yS stuff this is real people's lives that have been devastated not the pretend oppression that scots like to pretend they have suffered.
Spain, Italy ( don't know about Greece) have always had high unemployment, long before the Euro. And they don't trust their banks either. Cash is king. It wasn't that long ago that Italians were first investors in London property market. They have money, just not as visible as in the UK.
Shall we stick to the point - how the fixed exchange rate forced these economies into massive wage deflation and appalling levels of unemployment. How is this anything other than a failure?
I'm not arguing that euro is a success of not, but those countries had issues before the Euro .
They did and they got worse.
It was and is a failed experiment.
meanwhile in other news Karma is a bitch
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37688046 ]Ryanair cuts profit as pound falls......[/url]
THM - I've always liked the concept of the Euro, but I agree not so good in practice. It was never really a single centrally controlled monetary and financial system so it was always going to be difficult.
However, for a poor nation Italy is remarkably rich. The contrast with Germany is interesting, with Germany a richer state but a poorer population relatively speaking, and overall estimates suggest that Italy may be richer overall. Some of that unemployment is very very real, but some may be convenient.
Now one might argue that a larger state (Germany) and better wealth distribution (also Germany) is good, but I'll leave it for you to do that THM.
...and inflationary pressures re-emerge (albeit still below target)
sorry igm you have lost me - Germany GDP per cap is > Italy's so not sure what you mean
Who is saying that Italy is poor anyway?
Lots of work (and GDP) not through the books allegedly. Tax not paid. Apparently unemployed. Wealth held quietly. Allegedly.
And I would agree having lived there for a bit, Italy is not a poor country.
Agreed its not. So back to the topic in question...
Net wealth of Italy per capita 10% higher than Germany.
I'm not challenging you GDP view.
Admittedly 2011, and gloriously lacking in currency, but Wikipedia gives personal wealth as follows.
The table below lists the 34 OECD countries' financial net wealth per adult in PPP.[1][not in citation given] The net average wealth is calculated by subtracting the debt from the mean wealth. Household financial wealth is the total value of a household’s financial worth, or the sum of their overall financial assets minus liabilities. Financial wealth takes into account: savings, monetary gold, currency and deposits, stocks, securities and loans. Unlike nonfinancial assets, financial assets are liquid and can much more easily support consumption, as they are not tied to the value of one's home (part of nonfinancial assets). Note however, that financial assets include pension and life insurance reserves, which in many cases cannot be withdrawn at one's discretion, but rather are annuitized.
More information: Country/Territory, Net financial wealth ...
Country/Territory Net financial wealth
Australia 38,482
Austria 48,125
Belgium 78,368
Canada 63,261
Chile 18,141
Czech Republic 17,262
Denmark 39,951
Estonia 7,843
Finland 20,190
France 47,668
Germany 49,484
Greece 14,004
Hungary 13,652
Iceland 43,045
Ireland 28,099
Israel 55,932
Italy 54,147
Japan 85,309
Luxembourg 57,159
Mexico 10,449
Netherlands 71,063
New Zealand 7,480
Norway 8,365
Poland 10,406
Portugal 29,640
Slovakia 9,651
Slovenia 18,912
South Korea 28,290
Spain 23,120
Sweden 55,301
Switzerland 100,812
Turkey 3,317
United Kingdom 60,065
United States 132,822
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/18/uk-inflation-rises-near-two-year-high-consumer-price-index ]Well that didn't take long.[/url]
I guess all idiots who voted for this madness are about to find out how much their protest vote is going to cost them.
That's the price you pay for hatred.
The question was far too important to be put to people who really had no idea of the consequences.
A capital punishment referendum would probably pass,as would lopping people's hands off for theft.
.
[url= http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Pages/framework/framework.aspx ]The current BoE target for inflation is 2%[/url], so a rise to 1% isn't going to be considered a major issue.
Though this does seem to be "[url= http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2006/economics/cost-push-inflation-2/ ]Cost Push Inflation[/url]" which apparently some consider bad (I'm out my depth there).
Food prices went slightly down in September, but up in October.
That will make next set of figures higher.
meanwhile in other news Karma is a bitch
Yup an Irish company announcing a fall in projected profits as its UK business becomes less profitable due to a fall in the pound. Now do you see why Michael Ryan was for Remain ?
Curious inflation figures today - year on year goods 0.6% cheaper but services 2.6% more expensive
Food prices went slightly down in September, but up in October.
That will make next set of figures higher.
Inflation target is 2%. We should judge impact once we have left the EU in 2020 and beyond, now we are still restricted by EU trade barriers
You mean o'leary? The man wanting to to fly people back to the UK to vote out?
So the economy tanking is a good thing?
If it had improved would you be worried?
You mean o'leary? The man wanting to to fly people back to the UK to vote out?
Pretty sure O'Leary was in the Remain camp:
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We should judge impact once we have left the EU in 2020 and beyond
just 14 years of inflation, uncertainty and underinvestment to go then,
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We should judge impact once we have left the EU in 2020 and beyond, now we are still restricted by EU trade barriers
Puts hand in flame / jumps off cliff and judges afterwards if it hurts.
And if the impact was bad Jamba? What then? You can't make it right.
That's what I meant by Brexit becoming like a religion - you only find out if paradise exists after you die.
Of course it is good news for Jambalaya. Poor people struggling is the aim of any good Tory.
Inflation target is 2%
Looks set to break that: [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37688593 ]BBC[/url]
"Economists have predicted that prices will rise further, particularly when the fall in the pound makes food and clothing more expensive.
Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "Consumer price inflation was actually prevented from climbing higher still in September by a dip in food prices, but that looks certain to imminently come to an abrupt end and turn around as a factor."
Others said the UK was on course to exceed the Bank of England's target of a 2% inflation rate next year.
Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Inflation looks certain to rise further over the coming months, and could easily exceed the 2% target in 2017."
TOP WORK CHAPS.
WTF? You can't wishlist a pre-release book in Amazon? **** brexit man.
Irish company (Ryan Air) profits down, UK company (Burberry) sales up strongly (30% 🙂 ) on increased Tourist demand as a result of lower £
Result !!
Irish company (Ryan Air) profits down, UK company (Burberry) sales up strongly (30% ) on increased Tourist demand as a result of lower £Result !!
Personally I think we should judge impact once we have left the EU in 2020 and beyond 😀
Actually Burberry share price went down this morning as results not as good as expected.
to be fair, burberry is **** horrible !
