EU Referendum - are...
 

[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

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So IF the the result was to come out of the EU, how long is the process of leaving?
Months, weeks, years, a decade?

I think the whole point is that nobody really knows as its never happened before. I imagine it'll be very complicated and very, very messy, with loads of unforeseen consequences.

I'd imagine that the crowing of the Tory backbenches and UKIP would be very very very short-lived as the reality of the monumental ****-up sank in with everyone else


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:29 pm
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In, it would be a potentially massive problem for my industry if we left but more importantly for me I consider myself at least as much European as I do British and would like to see that identity represented politically.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:30 pm
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Out.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:30 pm
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In.

Economic suicide to leave.

IME, the most ardent of 'out' people I've spoken to tend to be either retired, or self employed sole trader/small business type people who are in service industry sector. People who work in business sectors that are regularly dealing with international clients realise we'll be screwed outside the EU. I don't think the general population is really aware of the number of major foreign companies who have manufacturing in the UK because we are in the EU - Nissan, Toyota, Honda, BMW etc. The Japanese companies manufacture here to get around EU quotas, so they're not going to hang around if the UK leaves the EU.

My OH is currently working on a project for a very large International company - they are putting together their detailed plan of action of how to pull their business out of the U.K. if the country leaves the EU. (Bit worrying, as they employ thousands of people). Her opinion is that if these guys are planning to go, all of their major clients will be doing the same thing.

I guess I may be biased, as many years ago I used to work for a Govt Dept that doled out European funding for regeneration, infrastructure and environmental projects - again, because of the lack of positive press coverage, I think the general population are completely unaware of the amount of money the EU contributes to big projects. The sums of money we were dealing with were so massive, most people wouldn't believe it (bilions - just mind bending when I think of it now, especially as none of us had any accounting experience!!)

Something that did strike most of the staff where I worked was the difference in approach that Britain (under Thatcher/Major Govt) took with the EU. The British approach at the time seemed a bit blasé and compromised, in contrast, the Dutch, Belgian, German and French picked the brightest people with solid backgrounds in their respective fields - we had a spot audit done by a couple of senior auditors from Brussels. My boss took them out for an evening meal, and the following morning, he announced to myself and my colleague - "boys, we're f***ed" :)) The EU guys were very sharp, and didn't pull any punches - they were definately not into creating loads of red tape, but were all about efficiency and knowing where every penny of their money was going. The EU auditors both had years of accountancy experience and they were frankly aghast when they found out that our office didn't have an accounting qualification between the 8 of us. (It was shortly after that that I decided I needed a career change.....Rat...sinking ship yada yada 🙂 )


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:31 pm
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givng the EU the opportunity they've wanted for centuries.

An impressive achievement given when it was formed.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:38 pm
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[b]Out! Out! Out! [/b]

I am more than capable of deciding for meself.

Yeap, you may bombard me with all your "facts" but I ain't born yesterday nor am I a naive, ignorant living in utopia.

People who keep going on about economic and political suicide you might as well say the world will collapse coz you truly have no confident in the British people. 🙄

Obvious is obvious ... I see you coming and I told you so. 😆


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:48 pm
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Out.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:49 pm
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Undecided. But toying with 'No' on the basis it won't result in us leaving, but a bet re-negotiated package. The UK is one of the biggest contributors to the EU and buys a lot from France and Germany etc. would they suddenly just let us walk away, I doubt it.

On the argument that we get money back for regeneration money from the EU, how would that balance with the £11.3bn (2013), we put in?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:54 pm
 dazh
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In,

For one overriding reason. Whether people like it or not, thanks to modern communications, transport and the internet, the world is on a path to greater integration and diversity technologically, economically, socially, culturally, and yes, politically. It's pretty much inevitable that the future will be one of less well defined nation states, and much less defined national identity. Are we really going to swim against the tide and think little old Britain can go it alone? For all it's many evils, the EU is going to be one of the main vehicles for managing this future shift to a world where nation states become less important so leaving now at such a pivotal time in history would be idiotic.

And yeah, what Binners said, look at who the main supporters of leaving are. That tells you all you need to know really.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:55 pm
 irc
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Out.

The UK is big enough to look after itself. I remember the same predictions of disaster when the decision on joining the Euro was being taken.

Ease of travel? I holiday regularly in the USA. Why would going to Europe be harder?

As for those quoting EU funding for various things? That is our cash coming back after deductions for EU fraud and bureaucracy.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 12:56 pm
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In.

Importing and exporting stuff, which I do a lot, would be a lot more hassle. I don't trust the UK government to look after human rights. I've got friends from the rest of the EU who would probably have to leave - and I know Brits in other EU countries who might have to do the same. It'd be an insanely complicated procedure to unpick EU legislation from UK law.

And, even if none of that were true, leaving would make Nigel Farrage happy.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:00 pm
 dazh
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The UK is big enough to look after itself.

No it's not. This country is a net importer of just about everything.

Ease of travel? I holiday regularly in the USA. Why would going to Europe be harder?

You think the main issue is where you can go on holiday? 😆


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:02 pm
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Ease of travel? I holiday regularly in the USA. Why would going to Europe be harder?
the point you tried to avoid is that it will be harder than now
For example minor drug offences wont stop me going to europe nor do they cost any fee for a visa.


As for those quoting EU funding for various things? That is our cash coming back after deductions for EU fraud and bureaucracy.
Most fraud is committed by the countries funded not the EU - did you read the post up there about them having billions and no accountants employed *This sort of decision is what leads to the "fraud "- most if it is still just human error not actual fraud.

* i am not suggesting that poster nor that organisation willfully committed fraud but they were not well equipped to avoid human error.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:03 pm
 Mark
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referendum poll now on the front page 🙂


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:07 pm
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Importing and exporting stuff, which I do a lot, would be a lot more hassle.

We manage to import/export to other parts of the world perfectly well.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:09 pm
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The Japanese companies manufacture here to get around EU quotas, so they're not going to hang around if the UK leaves the EU.

Standard scaremongering argument from the "in" camp. If that is the case why aren't they already located somewhere like Poland or Latvia where labour costs would presumably be much lower?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:09 pm
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[quote=Mark ]referendum poll now on the front page

Like the track I am undecided and yet dont have this option.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:10 pm
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referendum poll now on the front page

STAY (there will be trouble)
GO (it will be double)

...political bias from STW towers! shocked! 😀


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:10 pm
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very much in.
mainly looking at it from a business and commerce point of view and the ease of doing business. i would rather we became more like the rest of Europe than looking to our obnoxious cousin across the atlantic for inspiration.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:10 pm
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If that is the case why aren't they already located somewhere like Poland or Latvia where labour costs would presumably be much lower?
well when they built them we offered the lower costs and those countries were not in the EU
Relocation costs are too expensive to make this viable currently and we are in the EU.

Lets rephrase

Where will they go - cheaper EU countries with no tariffs or stay in the more expensive non EU country with tariffs- if we leave?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:14 pm
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You see all those swivel-eyed loons on the Tory backbenches and in UKIP? What do you think this country would look like once they've been 'set free frrom the shakes of Brussels'

What do you think they're planning on doing?

Do you think that once they no longer have any constraints that they're going busily set about making everyones lives better? To create a fairer and more egalitarian society?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:17 pm
 dazh
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The funniest thing about this whole debate is the people who bizarrely think we can go it alone. Have they had their eyes shut for the past 100 years? No country can go it alone. I don't even know what 'going it alone' means any more. We live in such an interconnected and integrated world that this phrase now has no meaning.

Simple solutions for simple people. God help us.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:17 pm
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In. Partly because I live in Spain so directly benefit from freedom of movement, but also because I believe membership of the EU will become ever more important as China (and others) become truly global powers.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:18 pm
 grum
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In

I trust a bloated, distant, inefficient and somewhat unaccountable mega-government far more than I do our own.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:22 pm
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Where will they go - cheaper EU countries with no tariffs or stay in the more expensive non EU country with tariffs- if we leave?

All this tariffs nonsense is a red herring as well. As previously stated the likes of BMW/Mercedes/Audi/VW do a hell of a lot of trade with the UK. There would likely be some sort of trade agreement signed in due course that would overcome such barriers.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:23 pm
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dazh - Member

The UK is big enough to look after itself.

No it's not. This country is a net importer of just about everything.

🙄

Which is why, despite what the Chicken Licken "in" campaigners say, none of those exportesr would want to jeopardise their trade with us, in or out.

The modern global economy is complicated and where we really score is in services and, in particular, financial services. This makes export of actual goods slightly less important to us but does mean it is essential not to allow EU changes which would impact on those services.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:26 pm
 grum
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Also, most of the 'out' arguments seem to be based on Daily Mail articles about the EU making us let immigrants eat our swans. There are some genuine issues with the EU but they don't seem to get mentioned often.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:27 pm
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All this tariffs nonsense is a red herring as well

I not you chose to not refute the counter to your point but decided to change the argument. 😕
The EU is bigger than us we are leaving and giving them two fingers but they will make sure we manage to keep the trade aspect of the EU deal without paying anything in because of some car manufacturers. Yew that sounds so much more credible 😆

I have no idea why people think this is even remotely a likely outcome

Its like imagining you will get divorced but the ex will still do your washing and cook your tea.

In the separation they will negotiate harder than we do and economically they are far more powerful than we are

Its like a supplier thinking they can bully Tesco just after having really pissed them off and taken billions from the table.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:28 pm
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mogrim - Member

In. Partly because I live in Spain so directly benefit from freedom of movement, but also because I believe membership of the EU will become ever more important as China (and others) become truly global powers.

A girl I know went to stay in Spain for a year only to hate the place like plague after a year, because the people there treated her (British) like "money printing machine".

Can you live in Spain without money printing machine?

😯

Junkyard - lazarus
of course they are bigger than us we are leaving and giving them two fingers but they will make sure we manage to keep the trade aspect of the EU dela without paying anything in

I have no idea why people think this is even remotely a likely outcome

Its like imagining you will get divorced but the ex will still do your washing and cook your tea.

You mean prior to the EU they are not bigger than UK?

Now that they gang up to form the EU ZM Club you bow? Beg?

I have no idea why people cannot stand on their own feet.

If you get a divorced you either find another partner or you get a maid.

Obvious is obvious ... 🙄


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:29 pm
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I don't trust the UK government to look after human rights.

Why not, on issues like H&S we are often ahead of our European 'partners'.

the ease of doing business

Industries I've worked in have done business in the USA, Asia, S. America, Africa and the Middle East without major issues because we bring technical expertise, yet doing work in Europe has often been harder due to their favouring of local companies no matter what. So my query is what makes Europe so special?

Also playing devils advocate maybe it's about time we stopped it being so easy for Germany to do business here, and selling their illegal cars 😉


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:29 pm
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Just watching Assange on the telly. It's decided me.Conservative government is sinister, xenophobic, controlling and supports the monarchy and an anachronistic class system which is a ridiculous and embarrassing throwback to the middle ages. Europe is progressive and forward looking and for that reason, despite some of it still being wed to the idea of a free money tree and in need of reform, I'm in...


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:29 pm
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A girl I know went to stay in Spain for a year only to hate the place like plague after a year, because the people there treated her (British) like "money printing machine".

Can you live in Spain without money printing machine?

Of course you can, what a stupid question. I work for a Spanish bank, it's a big red one that owns a chunk of the UK high street too. And my day-to-day is exactly the same as all the other employees here.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:31 pm
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on issues like H&S
You have confused human rights and safety at work.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:31 pm
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In. Better the Devil you know and all that. The fact is people who are paid to know about such things don't know whether the UK will be better in or out, so what hope do I have of coming to a suitably informed decision? Referendum is just a not-very-subtle way of making the people decide so politicians don't have to carry the burden of getting this one wrong. Let's face it, whichever way this goes it will be used as a political argument between the main parties for years to come.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:34 pm
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I don't trust the UK government to look after human rights.

Why not, on issues like H&S we are often ahead of our European 'partners'.

You seriously want this lot- a bunch of the richest, most entitled and elitest, backward-looking representatives of an almost medieval class structure - given a blank sheet of paper to effectively write a new constitution, and a bill of rights

Erm... no thanks


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:34 pm
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dragon - Member

I don't trust the UK government to look after human rights.

Why not, on issues like H&S we are often ahead of our European 'partners'.

The local clue's usually in the police uniforms; the more tinsel and egg yolk on the shoulder and lapels, the more recently they've reinvented themselves from some sort of authoritarian or fascist regime.

It's not that long ago in a lot of places - you still wouldn't mention the name "General Franco" in Spain.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:35 pm
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mogrim - Member
A girl I know went to stay in Spain for a year only to hate the place like plague after a year, because the people there treated her (British) like "money printing machine".

Can you live in Spain without money printing machine?

Of course you can, what a stupid question. I work for a Spanish bank, it's a big red one that owns a chunk of the UK high street too. And my day-to-day is exactly the same as all the other employees here.

Interesting views ... she really hated the people and the place but before she went she loved the place.

She still hates the place unlike you. 😆

Does that mean with job they welcome you?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:42 pm
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you still wouldn't mention the name "General Franco" in Spain.

People make jokes about him all the time, it's been over 40 years...


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:43 pm
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Borderline in, but only just.

I'd be interested to see what happens to the migrant issue and how the EU react to it.

To be honest if we did leave I could see a few others leaving too.

Don't know if its related to EU rules, but the news last night (or maybe previous night, its all a blur of coke and hookers at the moment) said we're looking into Child Benefit changes and apparently if someone is over in the UK they can claim Child Benefit for their children even if they live in, say Poland, Greece etc. - surely that's not right?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:46 pm
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mogrim - Member
you still wouldn't mention the name "General Franco" in Spain

People make jokes about him all the time, it's been over 40 years...

At least General Franco fought for what he believed ...

Imagine if he won then the joke will be for the other side.

Winner(s) takes all. 😆


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:46 pm
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Have we covered the Out fantasy that we could negotiate similar trade agreements to Norway when
a) the rest of the EU will be mightily cheesed off
b) we will be in competition with the rest of the EU as a Financial Centre; so Dublin / Frankfurt will be developed

Additionally our anit-EU biased press never quite manages to run a "what the EU have done for us" story... turns out it's quite a lot

Additionally I'm guessing Scotland will definitely want to leave the rUK as they seem quite keen on the EU.

Edit - as to the H&S & Human Rights issues; the reason our H&S is good is often because we actually implement what the EU tells us to. It's not like the UK gov't did it out of the kindness of their hearts


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:47 pm
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Do people seriously think we could go it alone and have the same negotiating power as the EU? they are the single biggest trading bloc in the world, with huge purchasing power.

UKIPs answer is to draw upon the common wealth- that very well known group of economically powerful states. It is a crazy idea.

To think Britain will be able to go about its business and do as we please, is BS of the highest order. We live in a highly globalised world, with institutions such as the IMF and world bank to think about. We are a slave to the global market.

The EU also has done a good job in protecting our rights, and holding Britsh governments to account over poor governance. Just look the environmental issues.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:55 pm
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Out.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 1:57 pm
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we're looking into Child Benefit changes and apparently if someone is over in the UK they can claim Child Benefit for their children even if they live in, say Poland, Greece etc. - surely that's not right?

Apparently [url= https://www.gov.uk/child-benefit-move-to-uk ]it is[/url], assuming the parents are paying NI. Works both ways, though - if your kids live abroad you can still receive it.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:01 pm
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The two camps need to be careful in this debate.

The 'in' camp need to avoid the usual 'you'd be an idiot to vote out' turn of phrase (seen quite a lot on here, by the way..).

The 'out' camp need avoid the Daily Wail 'immigrants ate my hamster' headlines.

Interestingly, as older people tend be more likely to vote, and according to the BBC older people are more inclined to vote 'out' does that make it less of an obvious win for the in brigade?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:01 pm
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Junkyard - lazarus

All this tariffs nonsense is a red herring as well

I not you chose to not refute the counter to your point but decided to change the argument.
The EU is bigger than us we are leaving and giving them two fingers but they will make sure we manage to keep the trade aspect of the EU deal without paying anything in because of some car manufacturers. Yew that sounds so much more credible

I have no idea why people think this is even remotely a likely outcome

Its like imagining you will get divorced but the ex will still do your washing and cook your tea.

In the separation they will negotiate harder than we do and economically they are far more powerful than we are

Its like a supplier thinking they can bully Tesco just after having really pissed them off and taken billions from the table.

I didn't refute the counter because I think you are probably right - the Japanese may well pull out of the UK but I don't think anyone can categorically say what might happen. I extended the discussion however to make a point that in the long term this may not be as disasterous as many are making out.

I'm really only playing Devil's Advocate here because I really think it's a foregone conclusion any way that we will be staying in. The opinion polls whilst reasonably close (52% in vs 48% out) still indicate a pro-EU balance I think. I'm also convinced an "out" vote wouldn't result in us acually leaving the EU. I myself would probably favour staying in but there is an awful lot about the EU that I do object to.

I think if you could poll people (maybe 20 years ago) on whether or not they wanted the EU to develop to this position then the vote would be very different.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:04 pm
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At least General Franco fought for what he believed ...

Imagine if he won then the joke will be for the other side.

Winner(s) takes all.

Favourite chewy post EVA! 10/10.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:06 pm
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Binners the result of the vote on the EU in/out is going to last longer than one parliamentary term. So you may not like the Tories, but I doubt they'll be in charge for ever.

with institutions such as the IMF and world bank

Both of which the UK was instrumental in helping to set up and still has a major role, there is no EU seat. So what is your point?

The UK has effectively been globalised and into free trade for over 100 years, often dragging along others who have been more insular.

That's not really an argument for or against being in the EU, but I the pros and cons of the EU and business aren't as clear as some on both sides of the debate try to make out.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:10 pm
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... although as far as my own situation is concerned, it doesn't matter one way or the other as I'm planning on going to live there...

I'll be a *GASP* immigrant. 😆


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:12 pm
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No it's not. This country is a net importer of just about everything.

Really? Shit, we are in trouble....

No country is seriously talking about going it alone BTW


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:12 pm
 km79
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As for those quoting EU funding for various things? That is our cash coming back after deductions for EU fraud and bureaucracy.

That's true yes, but those things in those places that benefit from them would never be funded if left to the UK government to decide. So it's worth it to me.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:14 pm
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My point is- we cannot simply think we can go it alone and retain every single bit of sovereignty. I am fully aware of the history of the IMF, World Bank, Bretton Woods etc.

If we are no longer part of the EU, we will still be highly influenced by other global institutions.

It is an argument that the out campaign often say, that we will be free to make all of our own decisions. We cannot.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:17 pm
 dazh
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Really? Shit, we are in trouble....

I was being facetious. My point is that anyone who thinks we can resist or turn back the tide of greater global integration is living in fantasy land. I guess the question is whether the EU is the right mechanism for managing the transition. I don't know, but I do know that the people wanting us to leave are not doing so because they want to do it better.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:25 pm
 poah
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out, purely to get another referendum in scotland 😀


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:26 pm
 br
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[i]Don't know if its related to EU rules, but the news last night (or maybe previous night, its all a blur of coke and hookers at the moment) said we're looking into Child Benefit changes and apparently if someone is over in the UK they can claim Child Benefit for their children even if they live in, say Poland, Greece etc. - surely that's not right?[/i]

So to 'save' £30m pa we're going to...

Seems iffy odds to me.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:27 pm
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In. Mostly 'cos of holidays.

You can slice the economics either way to suit your perspective, regardless the UK economy would survive and continue much of a muchness. A bit like the Scots independence thing this really an emotional/political decision and I think there's more linking us than dividing us.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:30 pm
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Can't trust the EU to best represent the UK's interests, can't trust our politicians with free rein over our rights.

I'm loath to admit it (it does feel like my arm is being twisted) but we seem to be reliant upon these symbiotic opposing forces to create some kind of balance in this complicated mess, inevitably compromised as it will be. Another dog shit sandwich isn't it 😐


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:32 pm
 dazh
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Funny how no one talks about the social, cultural, and keeping the peace aspect of it. Maybe it's taken for granted now but it wasn't that long ago that Europe was killing millions of it's citizens in massive wars. Ironic really that it's greatest success is now not even considered as one of it's benefits.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:50 pm
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'you'd be an idiot to vote out' turn of phrase (seen quite a lot on here, by the way..).
I think they are saying some of the reasons are idiotic and some of the moist vociferous anti EU voices. Its a voew that has much merit if you look at UKIP
I extended the discussion however to make a point that in the long term this may not be as disastrous as many are making out.
In the long run we will cope the issue is what happen in the 10-20 years it takes us to adapt. I think the impact will initially be bad as we need to change how and who we trade with.
I think if you could poll people (maybe 20 years ago) on whether or not they wanted the EU to develop to this position then the vote would be very different.
Agreed but it is not going back to being just a right wing trading club so we need to either accept this or get off the toilet.
Cheers for explaining your views /what you are doing


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:55 pm
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I'm split but the worry is that voting will be driven by Daily Mail, Mirror and Sun headlines which means it will turn into a shambles. In some ways it's a shame Dave is trying to dress up his absolute failure in the way that he is. I suspect that will drive more to vote out than to understand the facts and make a more informed decision.

For those voting they want out because of the immigration aspect should consider that Norway, not a member of the EU, has 7.38 EU migrants per 1,000 population. Switzerland, also not a member but has access to EU markets, has 11.33 migrants per 1,000. The UK currently only has 2.48 migrants per 1,000. Doesn't really stack up with how the papers would lead you to believe does it?

For whoever it was that was asking timescale; who knows, it could be 20 years. We'd have to adapt most of our legislation to remove EU directives and EU treaties with the rest of the world would cease to apply to the UK. We would have to negotiate the future of the 2 million brits who live in the EU. WTO rules state we have no right of access to EU markets so that would have to be negotiated and we would have to make significant payments as Norway and Switzerland do.

Lastly I suspect we'd also get a short/long term sterling crisis if we leave which would make everyone's enduro 'sled' more expensive.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:56 pm
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I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying "out" would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro...


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:57 pm
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Isn't that NATO though and the focus on the common enemy of the USSR. Remember Germany wasn't allowed an army operating outside its borders and still has a US and UK military presence. The EU didn't stop the Yugoslavia crisis.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 2:59 pm
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Klunk - Member

I found the report r4 did on Norway revealing, the infamous fax machine and the cost for them to deal with the EU, 7th largest contributor and no sway/vote/influence on how it's run and they still have to implement a lot of the directives... That'll go down like a lead balloon with the kippers if that's the result.

I just listened to the Radio 4 program that Klunk linked to on page 2. Very interesting from both sides of the argment and just shows it's not a cut-and-dried decision either way really. Obviously the UK is not the same as Norway and the issues would be different here.

I think if we stay in we will tend to just bumble along as we have done in the EU thus far which would be a mistake. Coming out would be a very interesting proposition though.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:07 pm
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Lastly I suspect we'd also get a short/long term sterling crisis if we leave which would make everyone's enduro 'sled' more expensive.

This is one of the most interesting aspects, there is the immediate effect and then the long term. It could be good for the likes of Orange bikes and Jaguar-LandRover.

Actually Jaguar Land Rover sales figures by number of vehicles are interesting in terms of this debate, for the year of 2014 they broke down as the following:

China 122k
Overseas 96.5k
Europe 86.3k
UK 82.8k
USA 75k


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:08 pm
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A girl I know went to stay in Spain for a year only to hate the place like plague after a year, because the people there treated her (British) like "money printing machine".

I think a lot depends how you interact with the "natives". My sister and brother in law have lived in a village over there for some years and love it. They made a point of being part of the community and not live in a Brits ghetto.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:11 pm
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I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying "out" would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro...

Who specifically are you talking about?


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:14 pm
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bowglie - Member
The Japanese companies manufacture here to get around EU quotas, so they're not going to hang around if the UK leaves the EU.

Toyoda has said that Toyota will stay regardless.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:21 pm
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Ninfan its not helpful to build up straw men then attack them with made up events that never happened

I dont think anyone is really saying it would be a disaster - though this may hinge on the exact meaning of the word disaster- just that it would be worse and have some major implications in the short to medium term.
Take the cars example above They will stay initially but they are less likely to invest in the future and more likely to withdraw if we leave the EU. Not a disaster but hardly good news.

What I do find interesting is that many of the anti EU are also very vocal in being pro the UK union

The very arguments they used then are now being ignored in this one 😉


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:23 pm
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[quote=Junkyard ]What I do find interesting is that many of the anti EU are also very vocal in being pro the UK union
The very arguments they used then are now being ignored in this one

and vice versa 😉


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:30 pm
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POssibly/probably

Interesting isnt it how we can reverse roles/arguments/principles and just make base emotive decisions about freedom 😉

TBH i was pro Scottish as i would vote for anything that made a tory govt largely impossible but I was not a passionate indy

On this i was pro the EU but ernie made a good point once that moved me to uncertain. Either way it wont be a massive endorsement whichever way i vote though stay is probably the more likely - mainly as it would annoy farage and loads of others i have no time nor respect for.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:47 pm
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I think it's typical of Britain's view of its own membership of the EU that we chose now to have an existential membership crisis.
The EU is currently dealing with major, once in a generation problems; the migrant crisis, the instability of the world economy, Greece and an increasingly belligerent Russia.
We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.
You can almost imagine the atmosphere in the Council of Europe summit when all the leaders are debating all the above problems, then Call me Dave puts his hand up and says,
"Can I talk about an important issue?"
"Go on", says Donald Tusk.
"I really need to get an agreement here about all those EU citizens coming to the UK, working, paying tax and NI, then claiming the tax credits they're entitled to, it has to stop."
"Sorry, Dave, but can't this wait, we do have a few more important things to discus."
"No." Squeaks Dave, "if I don't go back to London with an agreement on this, then the UK may be forced to leave the EU, that's how seriously we take tax credits."
If the UK isn't willing to take part in the EU properly, it should leave it.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:50 pm
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The eu was a nice idea but it hasn't worked, so OUT as there's no point flogging a dead horse.

This is all academic though as the referendum will be fixed to get whatever result the government wants


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 3:55 pm
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Rubbish - the government is split!


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:20 pm
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In, I deal with a lot of EU driven policy and legislation through work. The problems don't usually stem from the EU but the way we in the UK elect to implement it.

I've not seen good evidence that persuades me that out is better. The arguments seem to be limited to eugh foreigners and politicians.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:28 pm
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Greece and an increasingly belligerent Russia.

The EU is by no means blameless for either of these situations!


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:31 pm
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The EU is by no means blameless for either of these situations

I'm not suggesting that the EU is blameless in any of these situations, that wasn't the point I was trying to make...


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:38 pm
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We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.

Not strictly true we pledged £2.3 billion and have ~ 3 ships in the med picking people up.

I'd argue there hasn't been a coordinated EU response, we have Germany doing one thing and others doing something else. In fact the lack of joined up thinking is making a big problem worse.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:47 pm
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.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:51 pm
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This is all academic though as the referendum will be fixed to get whatever result the government wants

Michael Portillo on "This Week" reckoned that people in the know say that if the vote was an "out" vote, the establishment would drag its heels, perhaps have a second vote and generally not leave.

I can see why. How much legislation/treaty agreements would need to be rewritten, and how many civil servants and lawers are available to do it?

As for my personal opinion, I haven't got a Scooby.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 4:54 pm
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As for my personal opinion, I haven't got a Scooby. My hopes that there would be an impartial layman's explanation of the issues published by the civil service to inform voters aint gonna happen.

I think all the issues are far too complex for anyone to really understand and predict. I just read this BBC article which seems reasonably balanced but really am still none the wiser.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

I think it will come down to a few emotive issues like immigration for instance which a lot of people in the street have a knee-jerk reaction to without really understanding the pros and cons. A bit like the General Election then when people vote for "that nice Mr. Blair" for instance without any inkling what he stands for.


 
Posted : 05/02/2016 5:04 pm
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