[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I'd like to keep it factual.

mikewsmith - Member

I must remember to wear my knee & elbow pads along with a helmet when reading these threads, just fell off my chair laughing again

Sorry Mike, I'm off to bed. Didn't realise you had time to be a colossal bell end.
Or have you time to finally answer the questions I put to you earlier on in the week?

Didn't think so.

😀

Cheers I was just catching up with the fall out. Not much changed has it.

Get over it and start to embrace the challenges that lay ahead.

How about [u]you[/u] embrace the challenges [u]you[/u] created for the rest of us.

Good to see that even though you voted to leave, it's still everyone else's fault. FFS

OR maybe just give it time and a decent leadership will prevail

Now that is the blindest optimism in the entire thread.

The crucial thing here is that assuming BoJo is the heir apparent, then whilst he led the Leave campaign, the indications are that his preference would be to stay in and renegotiate. So it's just a question of whether Juncker and pals can be circumnavigated and those controlling their purse strings can be persuaded of the merits of keeping us in.

It's no secret that his background is one of criticising the EU, and he is clearly a very ambitious man, but one thing he is not is stupid. My gut feeling is that he saw this as a chance to go head to head with Cameron, to garner support from half (as it turns out slightly more than half) of the UK, and perhaps what he really wanted was to be the courageous and gutsy freedom fighter but not quite win - a sort of 21st century English William Wallace. When you look at the voting demographics, you've got a majority of people in traditional labour heartlands (excluding of course my far wiser adopted countrymen up here 🙂 ) backing the ultimate toff, and that is no mean feat. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if Boris's real goal was to use the EU referendum to become the Tory big hitter that everyone across the UK loved, with an eye on taking the top job in 2018/19/29 when Cameron stood down, but that he didn't really expect, or want, to win this referendum. He's now faced with the prospect of presiding over 2-3 years of disaster for the UK (I'm not saying it will be a disaster, but it's a possibility) and, if Labour get their house in order, leading the Tories into another decade on the opposition benches in 2020. That will not sit well with his lifetime ambitions, and as I said, whatever else he is, he is not stupid. Obviously he can't simply turn round and say 'Er, I've changed my mind, this is not such a great idea', but what he is quite capable of over time, with the cooperation of the EU (not withstanding Juncker's public attitude, but he's got a political game to play too), many in his party and most of Labour, is fudging the whole thing and keeping us in the EU if he wants to. I don't know, but if it works out like that it wouldn't surprise me.

To lighten the mood...

( Gives tentative wave to Atgray) I voted leave and stay in the Indy and euro refs. I think it is time for us to look after our own countries interests,(and I am sure somebody can point out that Scotland is still part of Britain.) Nonetheless I think we just need to see if we have the energy to go through it all again,it was hideously divisive and it is still emotive.(waves again) I also think we at least need to know what is going to happen with what's left of the oil industry,and as said by ss77 above,it would be really,really stupid for the next remain campaign to try to hit us with the project fear again. I personally would like to see the dust settle, however I also think we need to put ourselves first ( sorry England) Just for clarification,that's England...Welsh made their own ****ing bed.

If the EU does look at itself and then implement some reforms, as some comments seem to indicate that it now might, then it would be a bit silly on its part to let the UK go if it reforms to address some of the issues that caused us to go.

So if it really were thinking of reforms then it would be sensible to want a delay in our article 50 submission.

But I don't think it will.

Everyone keeps talking as though the EU is perfect - the reasons for the leave vote may have been wrong but there were still reasons to want to leave that neoliberal organisation - and particularly if you have left wing views as their goals are so capitalist/globalist.

It still seems to me, maybe more so, that most remainers are only thinking of themselves and not of principles, as why would those neoliberal viewpoints appeal so much on here when it seems this forum is predominantly left-wing in views.

I would have thought that they would be rejoicing in the future possibility of a labour government and more concentration on workers rights, etc.

Or is all that youth unemployment in the poorer EU countries a good thing ?

Everyone keeps talking as though the EU is perfect - the reasons for the leave vote may have been wrong but there were still reasons to want to leave that neoliberal organisation - and particularly if you have left wing views as their goals are so capitalist/globalist.

Or is it, something different all together???

Re Scotland

1, negative campaigning was perceived to have worked, hence they repeated the trick but lost this time.
2. Of course the currency mattered, that was the DO's "immigration" albeit it with a factual underpinning
3. The economic case, or lack of it, has been exposed so a much better argument would be required
4. Despite dear Nicola's comments last night - which I have some sympathy with - its not her decision - odd I know
5. The Europeans are pissed off enough about the UK, the idea of negotiating with a smaller bit of it (sorry but true) is probably not going to be high on their wish list.

Other than that, carry on.....we need another topic for a marathon thread....

most of what people were annoyed about could have been fixed while still being a member.

it looked pretty clear that this was not the case at all, the only thing that would force change was the kind of revolution that we have now.

come on some examples TurnerGuy....

'locking the gate after the horse has already bolted' springs to mind.'

come on some examples TurnerGuy....

of what ?

give some examples of things that were wrong that had prospect of being fixed.

look at the number of times we lost any vote within the EU compared to every other member state. Checkw will have posted this information earlier in the thread.

And how do you think a refusal by a Tory Government will be perceived up here? I can see it now, the settled will of the Scottish people was more in favour of staying in the EU than the UK... 🙂 I would also assume you lot wouldn't be daft enough to cut your ears off to match your nose and a trade agreement with a newly Indy Scotland would be installed. Which would give back door access to English markets and make Scotland attractive to the EU( serious point,and I bow to your superior knowledge of finance and trade machinations here). Still; admitting that the stay campaign up here was negative is a sea change for you,so well done,although marks off for point 5. Again;[b] I want the SNP to play the long game,[/b] but I am 100% convinced that leaving the EU(and it looks very likely it will happen) will lead to Scottish independence.On your point 5, better than you have called the EU so very,very wrong as the noises coming from the continent in the last 24 hours would suggest. Membership for Scotland would be a big middle finger to your country.

Checkw will have posted this information earlier in the thread

I wonder how many Brexiters woke up like this today

of what ?

give some examples of things that were wrong that had prospect of being fixed.

Again it's really up to those telling us that it's a problem to say what was actually the problem, there must be list after list of these major issues and reasons the UK has been held back being a member of the EU.

The next big issue/challenge is to stop a complete purge of anything the EU touched, there is some really good regulation in there that works to protect workers etc. that I'm guessing (hell why not everyone else is) the likes of Gove and BoJo are keen to get shot of all in the name of reducing red tape/making britian GREAT again.

nts to keep scotland they need to come up with a solution that allows scotland to exist in both the EU and the UK. If that's not possible tatty bye, their case is piss poor, it's 1000 times worse that the scottish out vote in 2014.

A Scots EU free trade zone within the UK would be fantastic for Scotland, their jobs and their economy certainly but also culturally.
If the SNP could pull it off, and I think on balance they probably couldn't - which isn't a reason not to try.

number of times we lost any vote

Something like 50-70 out of 2500 wasn't it?

Over what timescale?
Just that £10,000,000,000 is more than we get back each year and I'd like to keep it factual.

€8.8bn in research funding in 2007-2013, ( we invested 5.4) As grants run for 3 to 7years (if you're re lucky) twice as much as the next best, Germany gets
I expect the current grant cycle we are in now to be similar

BBC.CO.UK "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36622842"

EU referendum: UK science wakes up to new future - BBC News

UK science must fight to make sure it is not an after-thought as Britain renegotiates its relationship with the EU, say research leaders.

Anyway Newsnight last night was amazing

The report from Burnley? Was very relevant, the 70% success of VL there tapped into the left behind feeling and that was directed at immigrantion and the elites who'd allowed it, the VLer was trying to talk about sovereignty but it was all about 'send them back'

The 2nd part with the 1 woman campaign in her Street yeah she wanted immigration down but she was absolutely saving THE NHS by stopping money going to Brussels

So Hannon then tells Evan Davis nope we won't be reducing immigrant numbers, pushed and pushed he sat there and repeated himself

Then the VL Tory woman saying over, nope we don't have 350m for the NHS that was just a suggestion when we wrote it giant on a bus and showed it all over the country!

Wow, what an 'interesting' 24 hrs it's been. I voted remain to avoid this level of uncertainty. I came to the conclusion that the real benefits of 'having control' were probably minor and will take some time and uncertainty to achieve those minor benefits - so why bother. I was hoping for a slim remain result to help us in our task of trying to achieve further reforms within the EU as i'm against the 'ever closer union' objective of the EU.

So here we are facing this uncertainty and apparent chaos. I have no idea how it's going to play out. However it is easy to allow yourself to descend into a pit of despair, but that isn't going to help anybody.

However what has actually changed? The UK is the 4th biggest economy in the world for one reason - because we offer skills, products and services the rest of the world wants. It's basic commerce. That won't change. The EU has made it easier for us to deal with the EU over the years and it is important to re-define our agreements with the EU to maintain the trade status quo and it will mean retaining freedom of movement (I always thought that the immigration argument was a red herring). There is no other way it can be and our resulting agreements and relationship with the EU will of course be key to the long term impact of this.

Trading with the rest of the world - which is a growing part of our trading as our trade with the EU diminishes and has been for years, will continue and now we're not in the EU we are free to negotiate our own trade agreements or just stick with trading with them as we currently do today.

So things are going to be uncertain unfortunately.

Ultimately this whole thing is an F-up of UK and European democracy 20 years in the making. What did people and politicians really think would happen if you ignore and discard millions of people with their own views and opinions and exclude them from the democratic process rather than doing the democratic thing and engaging with them in free and open debate and deal with people opinions and address them - change their minds rather than just ignoring them and calling them racists. For me this is the big shame of this - the breakdown of democracy and has lead directly to this result which is basically a two fingers up at the establishment for alot of the people who voted Leave - not all, but alot that obviously swayed the result.

But for now all we can do is turn up to work and crack on as normal. I know the company where I work still has the same customers, same orders, same contractual commitments, the same suppliers etc and that is not going to change any time soon - and i'm sure that is the same for the vast majority of businesses and companies up and down the country. Hopefully we'll get to some amicable eagreement with the EU in a matter of months and not years and we won't start tearing ourselves apart any time soon creating yet further chaos and uncertainty that will benefit nobody, then we'll all know where we stand and crack on.

The impact of this is not just UK wide - it's EU wide (it's a bigger shock for them than for us) and indeed global. Now we are where we are (hate that term) we have a responsibility to make the right decisions going forward.

However what has actually changed? The UK is the 4th biggest economy in the world for one reason -

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom"

Economy of the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

I think it was 6th by Lunch on Friday

Again it's really up to those telling us that it's a problem to say what was actually the problem, there must be list after list of these major issues and reasons the UK has been held back being a member of the EU.

there was a list of changes that Cameron took to the EU a while ago, most of which got refused.

Side-note: Is this the longest STW thread ever?

I see East Anglia had some of the highest support for leave, I imagine in part due to high levels of EU immigration for agricultural jobs.

As time goes on under tightened immigration levels and staff turn around then more fruit picking jobs will become available for UK citizens. Will be interesting to see how these jobs are taken up.

INDEPENDENT.CO.UK "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-negotiations-qa-what-are-david-camerons-demands-what-happens-next-a6848646.html"

EU negotiations Q&A: What are David Cameron's demands? What happens next? | The Independent | The Independent

European Council president Donald Tusk has published his proposals for a

These ones? How are they stopping people making the UK awesome? Really it's simple what would will we do now that we were not doing then?

Immigration will not reduce. That was a big fat lie. Your apples and pears are safe in the hands of immigrants.

Mike - we sunk to 8th during the '08 recession I think. But my point is still the same - we're one of the worlds biggest economies and the things that got us there are still intact.

I'm just trying to take all the emotion and despair out of this. In business decisions are made objectively but people are understandably currently in a state of shock - we all are, and for the first time in our lives the established order of things has been disrupted. It's unprecedented. It'll be one of those things we will talk about to our grand kids when we're old and grey (assuming you're not already) about when one day we woke up and the world had fundamentally changed. But this will be dealt with by governments and industry making clear objective decisions for our mutual benefit - and that process has not been disrupted. We'll continue on largely unaffected for now - yes the economic measures will go up and down as they always do. However clearly our negotiation with the EU will matter and the sooner they're completed the better.

this will be dealt with by governments and industry making clear objective decisions for our mutual benefit - and that process has not been disrupted

THe later will clearly make decisions in the their or their shareholders self interests. Businesses are many things but concerned with the greater good is not amongst them

Your faith in the EU and the UK to play nicely together is admirable but i think ultimately misplaced as what is best for both is two different things with very little common ground

Its hard to see a compromise solution though the EU does excel in fudges and I will be surprised if we have anything before the next election. We want access to their market they are only offering it if you essentially stay in the EU and we just voted to not to do that
What do you think the compromise position is?
I dont see it personally.

Yes trying to take emotion out of it, in the end I feel the ones who will hurt the most are those that were taken in by it all.
Over the next few months we will see the sealed plans coming out for some big business, things like when a new car model is due to be built etc.

But this will be dealt with by governments and industry making clear objective decisions for our mutual benefit - and that process has not been disrupted.

TurnerGuy - Member
look at the number of times we lost any vote within the EU compared to every other member state. Checkw will have posted this information earlier in the thread.

He did, but forgot to add the caveats. I posted them but they were ignored:

We hence count both abstention and negative votes as a failure to publicly support a majority view.

However, one thing to note is the high level of agreement in both periods: the UK voted on the winning side 97.4% of the time in 2004-09 and 86.7% of the time in 2009-15.

These aggregate patterns might be distorted by the fact that there were more votes on some policy issues than on others, with the UK opposed only in areas that happened to have many votes.

However, there are some important caveats to keep in mind:
• The council overwhelmingly decides by consensus, which means the UK is on the winning majority side almost 87% of the time.
• The UK government might be more willing than other governments to publicly register its opposition to EU decisions.
• The data does not tell us what went on behind the scenes on each of these issues, and hence how much the UK disagreed with the majority position when it recorded its opposition – perhaps the UK was on the winning side on all the key issues it really cared about in this period.

I'm saying it's not a case of playing nicely or not - that is irrelevant. Proposals are made, negotiated and agreed on the strengths and weaknesses of the proposals. Both sides have something the other side wants and there is a meeting in the middle somewhere that mutually benefits both parties. It is the basics of negotiation - otherwise its not a negotiation.

It is in the interests of the EU to have good relations with the UK - we're close neighbours, work with eathother on a whole host other things - dealing with Putin, NATO, intelligence. It is important that we're both successful. We largely agree on things, just disagree on how to achieve them.

I just don't share some peoples down-beat view of the UK. We have alot to offer the world. The world actually likes us - that is my experience. The world actually respects us and sees us as a beacon of fairness that stands up for principles, we not corrupt (relatively speaking). The EU wants to have a close relationship/partnership with the UK as it reinforces their position and standing in the world.

I just don't think that the normal rules of commerce, law and politics is going to cease overnight. If it does that will have much greater global implications.

My worry is that disentangling or reshaping 43 years of laws, trade, regulations that effect almost every aspect of our life will be ****ing insanely complicated and require a huge number of people,

I think a lot of lawyers are going to earn an awful lot of money out of all this

@kimbers-did you watch the YouTube video of the professor at Liverpool Uni?

Exactly what he said. They'll need a lot of lawyers and quickly as the civil service simply does not have the resources to cope.

He, whilst being very much remain, admitted that a Leave vote would give him a couple of years of very well paid work.

His analysis of how trade deals are negotiated is very interesting as well.

Re Immigration the Leave Campaign repeatedly said it was about control. Australia takes in double the number of migrants as does the UK but it does so as a result of its own decision. Its up to whatever government we have in the future to set those numbers or indeed decide its effectively unlimited.

I have been quite busy but will catch up later, a couple of interesting tid bits

UK stock market reaction fairly muted at close and European markets down more reflecting the fact they have more to lose.

EU commissioners throwing toys out of pram and showing frustration that Article 50 is somethig we trigger not them (oh the irony) added to a journalists comment on R4 that the EU is quite good at circumventing rules to just do what it wants (irony dialled to 11), ie finding a backdoor way to try and "eject" the UK.

I see the Germans (politicians and unions) have been more measured, they understand a trade imbalance.

Australia takes in double the number of migrants as does the UK but it does so as a result of its own decision.

this concept seems to be beyond anyone in the remain campaign...

EU commissioners throwing toys out of pram and showing frustration that Article 50 is somethig we trigger not them

Checkw will have posted this information earlier in the thread

the Checkw defense?

jambalaya - Member
Re Immigration the Leave Campaign repeatedly said it was about control. Australia takes in double the number of migrants as does the UK but it does so as a result of its own decision. Its up to whatever government we have in the future to set those numbers or indeed decide its effectively unlimited

And Hannanbot said last night free movement wouldn't end. Oh, and taking back control?
[url=

MIRROR.CO.UK "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexit-new-migrant-crisis-could-8276808]like"

this?[/url]

Australia takes in double the number of migrants as does the UK but it does so as a result of its own decision.

this concept seems to be beyond anyone in the remain campaign...

Being in possession of Australian Permanent Residence I fully get that. Most people actually do [b]BUT[/b] we also get that Free movement of people is tied in with free trade within the single market. That delivers benefits to the UK, EU Migration has been shown to also be a positive to the UK economy with WU Migrants being positive contributors. We were entirely happy to look at the facts and decide not only that Free Movement of people was a good thing but also the stuff we get in return for it are even better.

Also the free movement of people goes both ways providing UK citizens with opportunities throughout the EU to further themselves and progress.

It seems that some people can't get why anyone would want to live anywhere but the UK and therefore the movement was 1 way.

We just chucked all that away.

I think it's absolutely right to stop the name calling. That is too easy.

OK. I'm in for the Britain Can Make It project.

Now, time for the new leaders to unveil the master plan I really hope they have had locked away in a safe for all this time. Unfortunately I suspect that the WHSmith just down the road from Boris's house has just had a run on crayons.

Anyhow, it's up to you, the Leavers to provide the leadership. I will continue to work hard and contribute as before.

So, The Plan.

Please don't tell me it involves building autobahns and/or having a jolly little war to unite us all, though.

I keep hearing the phrase "the UK has to be made an example of" words like that are not helpful.

Well by indulging our baser instincts we have given other the opportunity to do the same. That's democracy after all.