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I think a second referendum could settle things - if its properly decisive like 60/ 40 remain
We cannot have an election until the extension is secured because if we have a VONC now Johnson manipulated things to ensure we just fall out of the EU on 31/10
Bercow confirmed this afternoon that the earliest date for a GE is 5th November.
The Scottish Courts could, however, request an extension from the EU beyond 31st October.
Richard Burgon, the shadow justice secretary, is making a point of order.
He says the Commons library has confirmed to him today that the soonest an election could take place would be Tuesday 5 November.
This would be after the 31 October deadline for Brexit, he says.
He asks the Speaker, John Bercow, to confirm this. Burgon says he think it is important for the public to understand that, even if Labour backed an election now, it could not take place before the PM’s deadline for Brexit.
Bercow confirms that this is his understanding of the rules.
I think a second referendum could settle things – if its properly decisive like 60/ 40 remain
Indeed. Temporary government to hold a referendum, prelegislate so that on either outcome there is a clear path that will be followed, we leave on the terms set out before the vote, or we cancel Brexit. No interpretation. Then a general election.
If we have an election before a referendum… this “people vs” narrative will result in more Conservative seats than Labour ones, even if it doesn’t give Johnson his majority.
Edit: Unfortunately TJ, any referendum needs to stick with a straight 50% of those who vote threshold. Anything else will look unfair/rigged/bad because of the stupid terms of the previous one.
a labour soft brexit deal is far more preferable to May’s WA or whatever Boris can cobble together
Absolutely. But it won’t exist before a general election. Asking people to vote for promises of a better Brexit than Johnson can get (with a chance to stop it) isn’t going to get Labour the votes or seats they need to form a government. Getting a multi party government to hold the referendum to defuse (you can’t get rid of it completely) the Brexit issue, and then have a general election, could result in a Labour government, with or without Brexit. I think that would be in the interest of the Labour Party. Rather than fighting an election with Brexit imminent.
any referendum needs to stick with a straight 50% of those who vote threshold. Anything else will look unfair/rigged/bad because of the stupid terms of the previous one.
Even the sensible step of enfranchising 16/17 year olds (it is their future we're ****ing up, after all) would be decried as a stitch-up.
As would splitting the leave vote with a three option question (Remain/No Deal/Shit Deal)
Bercow confirmed this afternoon that the earliest date for a GE is 5th November.
What about the six week purdah period before that though?
Does that mean we get parliament dissolved again in a couple of days time..?
The problem with that is the electoral commission states that any referendum campaign should be 9 months - so thats a 9 month caretaker government. Whereas get a delay then election means election in a few weeks.
Kelevin - I agree 50% + 1 is what they have to do - but IF there is a decisive result that puts it to rest. so although 50%+1 will mean remain it will not be the end of it - but if its a 60+% remain then thats it - its all over.
I think a second referendum could settle things – if its properly decisive like 60/ 40 remain
Yes that would settle it. There would be a rump of pro-no-dealers still pissed off but they'd be in the minority. Even though it would be completely pointless as far as brexit goes, I think there's a good chance of a second ref confirming a deal rather than remaining. It'll be tight either way though, and no way will it be 60-40 either way.
The other upside of a referendum will be that at future elections, the brexit party will still be around campaigning for no deal, and probably taking seats off the tories, resulting in a labour controlled govt for as long as brexit remain an issue.
Asking people to vote for promises of a better Brexit than Johnson can get (with a chance to stop it) isn’t go to get Labour the votes or seats they need to form a government.
There's a risk of this yes. Labour will have to explain that if there's to be a referendum, there needs to be a deal on the table otherwise the question at the referendum will be no deal vs remain, which no one wants. Remainers may not like a deal, but there does need to be one to make this all work.
The problem with that is the electoral commission states that any referendum campaign should be 9 months
You think that would be stuck to, given the current circumstance?
I would imagine the timescale would be vastly reduced, dependent on if / whatever extension is granted by EU.
A referendum seems the only sensible way to put this to bed.
I suppose if we get an election first and Labour are majority, or work with LibDem, then their red deal referendum works too.
Personally I'm not sure I like the election first route, the support for the Tories madness hasn't eroded enough yet.
Also… if we stick to the extension>election>referendum path… how long does that take… even if we don’t have a hung parliment logjam after the election? How much patience do “the public” and all the other countries of the EU have?
There is not much differnce in total time
I dont think the 9 month rerferendum campaign is needed - but thats what the electoral commission recommends - and its recommendations are normally adhered to
9 months of ref campaign??? 😱😱😱
We've just had 4 years of ref campaign and most of the country are now experts on Brexit 🤪
I reckon they could have it done by lunchtime next Thursday !
there is no chance of 100 lib dems. They have simply made themselves too unattractive to anyone north of watford.
Cough. York Outer. Cough.
I'm amused that MPs have voted against a recess for the Tory conference. Mind you it doesn't take much to amuse me.
maybe the lib dems will take the odd seat in Henley of the north and such like places 😉 but no way on earth are they going to make the inroads in the north that they will need to gain the 50+ seats to offset the losses in Scotland and to get anywhere near 100 seats.
There is not much differnce in total time
Of course there is. An election before we get to kick off a referendum must take at least, what, 6 weeks? And there is every chance we will need a second election if a hung parliament results in no government, after a few weeks of trying to get something to work. So, maybe 4 months gone… and still no referendum kicked off…
I ask again, how much patience does “the public” and all the other countries, have? A delay of a year doesn’t look feasible to me, while all this campaigning goes on.
Cut it down. Get an extension long enough for a referendum. Hold a referendum. Leave with the Withdrawl Arrangement, or revoke A50, depending on the result. Then hold an election (where parties have to either propose what they want to happen at the end of the transition period, or they get to talk about everything else).
kelvin - 6 weeks for a ge and 9 months for a referendum - so depending on the order of events makes a max of 6 weeks difference in a 10 month process
I agree with you tho that the EU need this settled.
EU already said they'd consider a longer extension for e.g. a referendum. Ok so that was then, but they'd have to be mad to refuse us if we committed to one IMO.
I think they’d be mad to extend past May 2020… but I hope otherwise.
molgrips I'm pretty sure I heard the other day that some members would push for ONLY a longer extension, about 2 years.
Interesting. That might fuel any “they won’t let us Leave” nonsense though. We’d have to promise to play nice (which means no Johnson), but that applies to whatever happens I suppose.
Just watched the brexit party political broadcast on itv 😒
That might fuel any “they won’t let us Leave” nonsense though.
The UK: we want more time
The EU: sure, take as long as you need
Leavers: Y R U PUNISHING US?!!?1
Damned
Just watched the brexit party political broadcast on itv
Just saw it too. Targeted at the "just got on with it" demographic with zero thought to the consequences of any of the proposals. The upside is that the "watercolour pad" concept is an easy target for parody by the LBD crew (or any creative types)
We’ve just had 4 years of ref campaign and most of the country are now experts on Brexit
If only. Most of the country are economically illiterate on how country's economies work, let alone what Brexit will do economically, and after the PM and his cohorts displayed who and what they really are, still haven't put 2 and 2 together to realise what sort of Government could be running the country beyond a successful no deal Brexit.
We’ve just had 4 years of ref campaign and most of the country are now experts on Brexit
Yeah but we've had enough of experts.
I ask again, how much patience does “the public” and all the other countries, have? A delay of a year doesn’t look feasible to me, while all this campaigning goes on.
TBH needlessly rushing things is part of what's caused the issues to date, the original 3 year A50 deadline, originally trying to exclude parliament from drawing up the deal because Parliamentary process would have slowed things down, then Maybots minimal extension (the EU would have accepted a full years extension back in March, why didn't we take it?) the UK have constantly been holding ourselves to a series of artificial deadlines rather than taking more time to actually plan and figure out how Brexit might work before jumping in without a clue...
And that's all because basically the Gammons are an impatient lot who want to undo 45 years of integration with minimal care or consideration in the shortest possible timescale...
the EU would have accepted a full years extension back in March, why didn’t we take it?
That new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
And that’s all because basically the Gammons are an impatient lot who want to undo 45 years of integration with minimal care or consideration in the shortest possible timescale…
Because of that new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
I agree with you tho that the EU need this settled.
They really don't mind and have plans in place to deal with a stroppy neighbour for 10 to 15 years or more.
On a separate note after last night we need to tone the pejorative rhetoric back a touch. Gammons and remoaners should have no part to play in future civilised discourse. We as a nation need to be a little more British and a lot less hysterical and wound up.
I hold my hand up to being guilty of this in the past. Trying hard to be the change I want to see in the world.
They really don’t mind and have plans in place to deal with a stroppy neighbour for 10 to 15 years or more.
Have you forgotten already? Cameron assured us they’d start stuffing each other in ovens again without our calming influence.
Have you forgotten already? Cameron assured us they’d start stuffing each other in ovens again without our calming influence.
Yeah but it'd be Muslims this time - so a good portion of Brexiteers probably want that.
The footage of Cummings talking to an MP says it all … addressing concerns about death threats with “get Brexit done then” … it’s going to get so nasty … because any means is acceptable to the Leave team … being in government doesn’t change that for them.
Cummings a few hours ago.
This is a walk in the park compared to the referendum, we are enjoying this, we are going to leave and we are going to win," he said
Enjoying it. It's going to get very nasty and I don't just mean name calling I'm afraid.
James Cleverley on QT is making it sound like by adhering to the Supreme Court ruling, they’re doing us all a favour
They still don’t think the law actually applies to them.
They’re busy building their ‘enemies of the people’ election campaign
Cummings is the ultimate spin doctor, but only his own kind are buying the lies.
Boris (his puppet) has to ask for an extension.
The tories are basically trying to ramp up the pressure by calling the whole of parliament cowards, when it's the worst kept secret that they'd be playing right into the hands of the fascist tory party.
The tory conference, such that it is, could be quite fun to watch.
Boris Cummings seems think that the PM holds ultimate power.
The opposition parties are not taking the bait.
the EU would have accepted a full years extension back in March, why didn’t we take it?
No, Macron insisted on it being only 6 months.
Here's a thought that I never see mentioned - what if the EU refuses an extension? They've already said they would probably want to see an election or a new referendum as a condition. So we might not leave, so much as get kicked out, effectively. I'm remain, but I can't say I would blame them. The UK ran out of goodwill some time ago.
I live abroad. Europeans have got tired of this farce. If they mention Brexit at all, it's to openly take the piss. UK has become a tired joke.
I think consensus is they will grant an extension if asked.
I think they are now thinking much further ahead than the UK are. They will be preparing for dealing with a problematic "failing" state for years to come. Of course, the beautiful irony is that the UK will have to accept whatever the EU and other states demand of us,a true vassal state.
In thinking a decade from now we might still be squabbling over the trade deals we are still fighting over. A country never more divided in hundreds of years.
By that point we will be a much diminished state. A nominal military, a diminished services sector and most of the assets we have left will be foreign owned.
We will rightly be held up by the EU and other states as a totem of how quickly a developed country can descend when populism is allowed to run rampant.
I think the EU are far more concerned with medium to long term implications now. They will likely come out of this far more unified and probably wealthier as the UK bleeds money across the channel.
Historic times but for all the wrong reasons.
That new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
Highly unlikely as the required legislation is already on the UK statute book, in the case of some elements has been for years.
Dose anyone remember the Harry Enfield character of a German tourist who was apologising for "his country's conduct in the war" continuously? That is what we and our children will be doing for decades to come. This is a form of warfare for the Cummings crew.
the UK have constantly been holding ourselves to a series of artificial deadlines rather than taking more time to actually plan and figure out how Brexit might work before jumping in without a clue…
I've been involved in projects like this before. Project manager and engineering setout a time line. It will be tough job but doable. Senior management step in yelling "next week / month" so that they can tell the customer what they want to hear rather than realistic plans and timelines. You know it will be mess now all you can do is go along for the ride or quit. I am trying to think of a way to quit right now.
By that point we will be a much diminished state. A nominal military, a diminished services sector and most of the assets we have left will be foreign owned.
assuming "No deal" or a crap deal then Scotland will be independent state within the EU and the island or ireland will be united and in the EU.
Highly unlikely as the required legislation is already on the UK statute book, in the case of some elements has been for years.
Some of the less effective bits by my understanding - the key bits - money laundering thru london and the tax avoidence states like the channel islands, isle of Man and the "british" carribean states will still be able to facilitate tax avoidence
Everyone I know who has the chance of a non-UK passport is applying for it. Some of them were/are Brexies.
Sensible Brexit planning I’d say, but it tells you which way the wind is blowing.