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He walked out earlier to avoid answering questions despite Bercow telling him not to. That’s going to end well.
I don't see any problem if PM BoJo refused to comply with Bercow.
What can Bercow do? Expel PM BoJo from HoC for a period of time?
For many PM BoJo is doing the right thing by standing up to Bercow.
Certainly will go down well.
Now HoC is debating about the use of language ... crikey.
p/s: the media has started using the term "Zombie Parliament" I wonder why 😀
For many PM BoJo is doing the right thing by standing up to Bercow.
Certainly will go down well.
This is a interesting point I have noticed on a few of your posts. You are not concerned with MPs abiding by rules, convention, the law but "how well it goes down". It's all about populism, not order or achieving any kind of considered, mediated outcome. Go with the flow of the reactionary opinion no matter what.
Bernard Jenkin suggesting that MPs shouldn't evoke Jo Cox's name when criticising the PM when he's being deliberately inflammatory to other female MPs
They literally have no shame...
FFS!
Don’t engage with the troll.
This is a interesting point I have noticed on a few of your posts.
The interesting thing I have mainly noticed is the massively varying grasp of written English on display. Almost like it is an act...
I don’t see any problem if PM BoJo refused to comply with Bercow.
I must confess in the circumstances me neither.
He's accepts he has no majority. He accepts we need an election ASAP. There's really no point in turning up for a bad tempered shouting match which will change nothing.
Peroration may have been illegal but it did have the advantage of avoiding days of needless verbal bun fighting in the run up to the inevitable election.
Debate's fine if it leads to action, but days of debate for the sake of debate is excruciating.
You are not concerned with MPs abiding by rules, convention, the law
Nor are the opposition parties. They could form a government themselves *today*. They could have an election any time. If MPs fail to abide by the rules the solution is to kick them out of government. Not to force them to remain in government when they accept they shouldn't be and shout at them a bit.
This is a interesting point I have noticed on a few of your posts. You are not concerned with MPs abiding by rules, convention, the law but “how well it goes down”. It’s all about populism, not order or achieving any kind of considered, mediated outcome. Go with the flow of the reactionary opinion no matter what.
Very simple. The only fear a political party or PM gets is from voters Not voting for the party or not lending power to the party.
As I said previously he can do "no wrong" at the moment regardless as PM BoJo is riding high so hammer away while the people are behind him. (as long as he Does Not break his promise but if he does his party is doom)
A high risk strategy so long as the people are supporting ...
Nor are the opposition parties.
In what way is not wanting a GE at the moment not "abiding by rules, convention, the law"?
In what way is not wanting a GE at the moment not “abiding by rules, convention, the law”?
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I mean they're not *concerned*. Or not concerned enough to take the simple steps to immediately remove from office the people who are not abiding by the rules, convention, the law.
PM BoJo is riding high
Last couple of polls (see Britain Elects) would disagree with that assertion.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 27% (-2) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 22% (+4) BREX: 16% (-1) via @Survation25 Sep Chgs. w/ 06 Sep
CON: 27% (-2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 20% (-1) BREX: 17% (+4) via @ComRes, 24 Sep Chgs. w/ 19 Sep
CON: 29% (+1) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 21% (+1) BREX: 13% (-) GRN: 5% (-) via @ComRes, 18 - 19 Sep
I think they're concerned enough to not knee-jerk, and wait until the time is right.
Importantly, that also means ensuring that the desired extension is certain, rather than still a vague promise...
Nor are the opposition parties. They could form a government themselves *today*.
Which is exactly what Boris wants and he's been goading them to do it for weeks.
How's the culture war going? Seems like we're not too far away from fisticuffs in parliament and violence outside it. Imagine what it will be like if brexit is cancelled? This is all very depressing, predictable, and probably inevitable. My only question now is how many have to die before everyone comes to their senses?
It's a price worth paying, remember.
My only question now is how many have to die before everyone comes to their senses?
None.
My only question now is how many have to die before everyone comes to their senses?
That all depends on who dies. As long as it's not nice, white, middle-class Tory voters in their leafy suburbs, then however many is neccessary
Yesterday, Survation conducted an online poll of 1007 people aged 18+ in the UK on behalf of the Daily Mail to find out their opinions on the series of Brexit votes that took place in Parliament last week and their views on the future of Brexit.
State of the parties (Change since 18th Feb)
CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 39% (+3)
LD: 10% (NC)
SNP: 3% (+1)
OTHER: 12% (+1)EU referendum voting intention (Change since 18th Feb)
Leave: 47% (-1)
Remain: 53% (+1)
That all depends on who dies. As long as it’s not nice, white, middle-class Tory voters in their leafy suburbs, then however many is neccessary
Judging by the Brexiteer ranting on my FB this morning, I'd be hiring extra bodyguards if I were Gina Miller...
^^^ I dont think thats survation- ref numbers look right
but not parties
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1177106311554752513
that looks like someone hasnt prompted for lib dems or bxp ltd?
Labour plus minus 63?
Tories wiped out in Scotland
53 SNP seats looks plausible.
100 LibDem seats does not.
I suspect the Conservatives will hold onto more seats (at the expense of the LibDems).
Would not mind being proven wrong though.
that should be -63 for labour
tbf those seat projections always very questionable
Nor are the opposition parties. They could form a government themselves *today*. They could have an election any time.
That's not actually the case. The PM gets to set or change the date of an election.
Wouldn’t it be in Labour’s favour to pivot now to…
- temporary government
- A50 extension
- WA vs Remain referendum
- revoke A50 or enter transition period
- general election
Nor are the opposition parties. They could form a government themselves *today*.
Which is exactly what Boris wants and he’s been goading them to do it for weeks.
Great. It gets a rubbish zombie government out and replaces it with a superior government *today*. If that pleases the rubbish zombie government as well then twomorrow we have 100pc agreement where today we had deadlock and conflict. Perfect.
Peroration may have been illegal but it did have the advantage of avoiding days of needless verbal bun fighting in the run up to the inevitable election.
You’re on the internet, actively commenting on a thing. If you don’t know what the thing is, please look up the word. On the internet.
And please, the “it might be illegal but it’s convenient - let’s do that!” attitude: that’s not the society I want to live in.
100 LibDem seats does not.
You reckon? With the entire Remain vote potentially going to them and the leave vote split two ways? Unless the election is delayed until after Brexit the Libdems will do incredibly well.
I do reckon. Even if share of the vote matches current polling, they’ll do well to take 20 or so seats off the Conservatives. If they take over 50 off them, that would probably mean the likes of JRM losing their seats to them. Unlikely, but I’d welcome it with dancing in the street.
Lol,,,
Boris Johnson has just lost his seventh consecutive vote in the Commons.
MPs vote 306-289 against a three-day recess to let Conservatives can go to the party conference in Manchester next week.
I do reckon. Even if share of the vote matches current polling, they’ll do well to take 20 or so seats off the Conservatives.
I can't convert votes to seats so I can't really debate seats sensibly with you. It's clear they're on for a ton of votes though.
From the numbers I've seen I think the LDs will be taking two thirds of their remain voters from Labour and 1/3 from the Torys. So it's not primarily the Tory seats we need to think about.
So mine is not a sophisticated analysis, but it's obvious the LibDems are sucking up votes from a massive pool all the other parties have walked away from - so when I see a very large number of predicted LibDem seats it seems entirely plausible to me.
lost his seventh consecutive vote
Magic.
If the lib /labs get in and pull the plug on brexit won't the Tories just campaign next time and forever more on a brexit vote?
Is brexit ever going to ****ing go away?
I don't think we deserve to be in the EU anymore. We are the retards who need expelling from school.
If Corbyn can do single market, freedom of movement I reluctantly feel that is the only hope for this country.
The "will of the people" will have been upheld ,the mainland will have scraped the shit off it's shoe and we can continue being the overblown loud mouths without hindrance to anyone else.
Yesterday, Survation conducted an online poll
So some of these polls give LD 10% and some 20%? Wide margin of error, that!
If the lib /labs get in and pull the plug on brexit won’t the Tories just campaign next time and forever more on a brexit vote?
Depends on the Brexit Party. If the Brexit Party go away the pressure on the Tories to shoot the Brexit Party fox will be gone and they can forget the whole thing.
So it comes down to have the people who voted for Brexit had enough of Brexit? Maybe. If some kind of LIb coalition was in power and revoked I think we might find the Brexiteers might have got fed up, and in five years time at the next election it's no longer an issue.
I fear it's more likely that this Pandora's box won't be closed for a very long time.
Thinking about how swing translates to seats, I cannot see how this information predicts anything even acknowledging the variation in swing. The traditional swingometer approach imagines the same swing across the country but because the country is geographically split remain/leave, so the swing to and from various parties is going to vary by region.
I wonder if it would be possible to create a calculator on the unverified assumption that the greater a constituency's remain vote, the more likely swing to Brexit Party from incumbent, and to LD for remain? I might try that...
Is brexit ever going to **** go away?
No.
Any transition period Brexit will result in “not real Brexit” campaigns.
Stopping Brexit will result in “denied our Brexit” campaigns.
No Deal Brexit will result in “punish the EU for the damage, don’t deal with them” campaigns.
Any one of those three is likely to be used to get control on the Conservative party (and a future government) if Labour is in power when we Leave or Revoke, even if a referendum is used to “settle” things.
– temporary government
Boris is playing at being the 'defender of democracy' with his calls for an election. Putting in an anti-brexit govt with no electoral mandate will be like pouring rocket fuel on the fire, and will probably strengthen him.
– A50 extension
– WA vs Remain referendum
This is already labour's position
– revoke A50 or enter transition period
Revoking A50 would be madness. If you think things are bad now, it will look like a picnic compared to that scenario. And it won't work anyway, all it does is suspend brexit til the next election when a tory/brexit coalition walk it and take us out unilaterally with no deal.
– general election
As above, it's already labour policy. It's the only thing that can resolve things. Of course it may not, we could get another hung parliament and minority govt on either side where it will still be deadlocked. In that scenario the politicians will have a justification for acting in what they think the best interests of the country are.
Even if share of the vote matches current polling, they’ll do well to take 20 or so seats off the Conservatives.
Agree. Polls are not much good when you add in the complexity of winning a number of seats as you say.
Where I live the tory vote was 67% with lib dem on 10%. The referendum result was 56% leave. I can't see the lib dems getting the seat where I live...
Sorry Dazh - my post was a suggestion to move to “do things in this order”. I can’t really reply to your points, because they read as if you missed that, and have addressed each step in isolation. I know Labour policy is for a referendum. I was suggesting that a change in the order of events may be required, considering the way Johnson is acting, and the mess that a general election based on an imminent Brexit may be for the country (and for the Labour Party).
The thing with polling for the next election is I expect some very regional results. LKib dems will do well against tories in the south but gain no traction at all in the north or Scotland. tories will be wiped out in scotland and the lib dems will do badly etc etc
I expect a hung parliament with tories and labour around equal but at least 50 short of a majority. 50 ish SNP. 20 odd NI seats is it leaving 30 lib dems at best.
Lib dems will try to put the tories back in with a promise of a second referendum but will be short of votes. Labour minority government with SNP doing S&C
Very very volatile tho. We could see a tory wipeout with their vote being split by brexit.
there is no chance of 100 lib dems. They have simply made themselves too unattractive to anyone north of watford.
Well just consider the first one then. Basically, an interim govt may hold up brexit temporarily but it strengthens Johnson (assuming the tories don't dump him). I don't really see it as an option now (whoever is PM) because it plays into his hands. Revocation even more so.
The only solution is a deal, then referendum. At the moment it looks like labour are the only ones seriously proposing it, although there is talk of the Kyle-Wilson proposal being resurrected. In the event of a referendum with a deal vs remain, a labour soft brexit deal is far more preferable to May's WA or whatever Boris can cobble together.
We cannot have an election until the extension is secured because if we have a VONC now Johnson manipulated things to ensure we just fall out of the EU on 31/10