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Here’s a thought that I never see mentioned – what if the EU refuses an extension?
It wouldn't surprise me if BoJo had already been trying to do some secret deal with a minor EU member country to get them to veto an extension, with some sort of kick-back being offered.
I know violence isn't the answer but damn Cummings needed someone to wipe the smirk off his face during that confrontation with the MP
On a separate note after last night we need to tone the pejorative rhetoric back a touch. Gammons and remoaners should have no part to play in future civilised discourse. We as a nation need to be a little more British and a lot less hysterical and wound up.
Solidarity brother! I did say something similar a while back and got a less than polite response from many on here. As I have said many times, this culture war is poisonous, and threatens to be a bigger problem than brexit itself. We can either step back and take a breath, or dust off the pitchforks. I know what I prefer.
Compromise legitimises the brexie anti immigrant nativist narrative, it’s too late for that. I’d prefer to dust off the pitch forks.
And it’s not a culture war, it’s a counter insurgency against stupidity.
culture war is poisonous
Does this mean you’ll stop chucking snide middle class jibes about?
I’d prefer to dust off the pitch forks.
Pitch forks never achieved anything. You know they keep talking about entrenched views and growing extremism? That's why. You're better off saying nothing.
it’s a counter insurgency against stupidity
And it'll NEVER work and is making everything significantly worse. You honestly expect leavers to go 'oh ok then you're right' if you simply throw enough abuse at them?
That new EU tax avoidance law coming in?
Highly unlikely as the required legislation is already on the UK statute book, in the case of some elements has been for years.
Thing is it may be on the books but having a law and enforcing a law are slighlty different.
For example the Apple/Ireland tax thing.
Tax avoidance laws that are properly enforced is not what some people would desire.
I also have a feeling that the EU one is drafted better and wont allow for er loopholes.
Oh Dear 🙁
He said the Prime Minister could use a so-called "Order of Council" to avoid implementing the legislation until after 31 October.
Sir John said Mr Johnson could carry out the move through the Privy Council, meaning Parliament would not be able to block it.
I'm pretty sure that unless Boris is removed via VONC or just a vote rather quickly its game over.
(Edit - what he said ^)
Seems that Major may have spotted Johnson's loophole to force No Deal - anyone know enough about parliamentary procedure to know if the opposition can do anything to stop this happening?
And it’ll NEVER work and is making everything significantly worse. You honestly expect leavers to go ‘oh ok then you’re right’ if you simply throw enough abuse at them?
They will eventually, given enough stupidity lose any political legitimacy. They need to be goaded into doing that. Trump and his merry band of ****s are managing to back themselves into a corner, as will the brexiteers.
They can be trolled into doing something so horrific that they lose all moral authority.
Just for clarity, Cummings' comments amount to "we're bullying you, and if you let us have what we want, we'll stop"
Did I miss anything out?
He's a slimy turd isn't he?
Not defining what type of Brexit we'd get helped Leave win, but it's exactly why were in this mess
MPs have voted exactly as they promised to in their manifestos (excepting a few rebels & the ERG)
Tories said we'd leave with a great deal (no specifics) they say for several pages how great it will be
https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
Labour said we'd get a Norway/Swiss deal (their 6 tests are a combo of the 2+ a sprinkling of unicorn dust)
https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/
Cummings is lying, again
Jo Maugham has a twitter thread on John Majors comments:
Initially scary but ends on a positive note.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1177308131644325888
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They can be trolled into doing something so horrific that they lose all moral authority.
And then what? Everything comes out lovely? Don't be daft. If you face down the bully and manage to beat him in a fight, he just comes back with more mates and ambushes you.
It's not the way, dude.
DAG says No
EDIT
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1177498386968150016
Jo Maugham has a twitter thread on John Majors comments:
Initially scary but ends on a positive note.> https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1177308131644325888
Ian Blackford's tweet is right.
"There is a clear warning here for Parliament. @BorisJohnson has to be brought down by a cross party consensus to stop this. We are facing someone that will stop at nothing. We need to take the keys of number 10 from him."
The simple solution is for the opposition to take over right now.
DAG and a few others on Twitter are my usual goto when I want to shut down the absolute bile that Brexiteers exclaim as law, but then again.....”experts.....what do they know?” 😉🤷♂️
DAG says No
Yeah, they said it's impossible on R4 this morning too. None the less, the opposition can still do as Ian Blackford says. Job jobbed.
The simple solution is for the opposition to take over right now.
There is no mechanism to do this safely. anyway its more fun to pile the humiliation on Johnson
There is no mechanism to do this safely. anyway its more fun to pile the humiliation on Johnson
None of this is 'fun'. One of the horrors of a lot of Westminstercentric media coverage is that it treats Brexit as some sort of jolly political game, when the reality is that there are lives and futures at stake. 🙁
The simple solution is for the opposition to take over right now.
No, cos it might not work. This is a knife-edge situation because BJ still has support, and plenty of it.
"Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes".
None of this is ‘fun’. One of the horrors of a lot of Westminstercentric media coverage is that it treats Brexit as some sort of jolly political game
Boris Johnson's sister was interviewed on Five Live yesterday. She was asked if she thought her brother was feeling under pressure at the moment.
Her answer? "Oh no. He's absolutely loving this!"
To him and Cummings this is all indeed a game. Everything is just a game to these people because they come from a gilded, rarefied world where there are no consequences for anything, no matter what they do. Hence their opinion that they can simply ignore laws that don't suit them. They still think they can, even after the supreme court ruling
No, cos it might not work.
There is no mechanism to do this safely.
Firstly, I suspect Ian Blackford knows what he's talking about, but leaving aside the plea to authority. There's no risk: VONC, take over take any action they think is wise. Job Jobbed.
There’s no risk: VONC
VONC definitely carries a risk. The risk they won't win it. Can they count on the support of the turfed-out Tories? Will Corbyn as a prospective interim PM put off a few MPs here and there?
There’s no risk
There's massive risk as it give BoJo the perfect 'people vs parliament','they stopped us getting it done' rhetoric for his election campaign. Better to leave him in post until the no deal cliff edge is gone, then his support will fragment as Leavers move to BXP Limited
DAG says No
You would have thought this government would be tempering its enthusiasm for dodgy legal advice from Geoff Cox et al after the kicking it got at the SC last week.
OOB - the risk is that they do not end up with a new government in place in time to stop the no deal. Thats why no opposition party will do it.
There’s massive risk as it give BoJo the perfect ‘people vs parliament’,’they stopped us getting it done’ rhetoric for his election campaign.
Electoral risk. Yes, there's *certainly* that risk. They're not citing that risk though.
VONC definitely carries a risk. The risk they won’t win it. Can they count on the support of the turfed-out Tories? Will Corbyn as a prospective interim PM put off a few MPs here and there?
Yes, the Tory party themselves *want* to be out of government so the opposition would certainly win it even if there was a bit of unconventional voting going on.
But the risk of not winning is no risk at all since if they lose they are no worse off.
OOB – the risk is that they do not end up with a new government in place in time to stop the no deal.
They would *be* the new government it would take 5 minutes, they could pick names out of a hat, it's only going to govern for long enough to take two or three simple actions.
So as I say, No risk. They could stop all the shouting (on both sides) and just take over, today. The reason they're not is because it suits them electorally. That's fine, it's how the system works but we can all stop the pretence around this.
The good thing about all this is the brains an expertise in constitutional affairs are not on Johnsons side.
Next week there will be new laws past to make it even more watertight. Don't be suprised to see a senior government official going with a pre written letter on the authority of the queen / parliament.
No OOB - there is a risk - the risk is that johnson maneuvers things to ensure the 31st is passed with no new government in place. thats why non of the opposition parties will call for a VONC until no deal is stopped for sure
No OOB – there is a risk – the risk is that johnson maneuvers things to ensure the 31st is passed with no new government in place.
Not possible. The government goes at the moment of the VONC loss. The new Govt would be able to act almost immediately.
No it does not. 14 days to see if someone else can forma government that holds confidence - if not then a new election.
During that 14 days the outgoing government still controls business.
It would be done that afternoon because everyone on the opposition benches agrees what they want to do and will have pre-agreed.
...and controls business??? - The Government *already* control business!
Ian Blackford's not an idiot, this is as close to risk free as anything can be.
Apart from the fact that Johnson would still control if / when and who is recommended to the queen! thats the problem. If he sits and refuses to recommend anyone we are in uncharted waters
there are real risks to calling a VONC now which is why non of the opposition parties want one until the threat of no deal is gone.
The government goes at the moment of the VONC loss. The new Govt would be able to act almost immediately.
That can only happen IF there is a credible alternative PM who could command the confidence of the house. If not, and lets be clear right now there isn't any candidate who could do that, then a general election would have to be called and parliament prorogued. Once that happens there is NO parliament but there IS a government, the current one. A vote of no confidence is not in the best interests of anyone other than those who want a no deal Brexit.
Apart from the fact that Johnson would still control if / when and who is recommended to the queen! thats the problem. If he sits and refuses to recommend anyone we are in uncharted waters
This is incorrect. However, Corbyn would have to demonstrate clearly he has the support of enough MPs to make him a candidate for PM who clearly commands the confidence of the House. At that point Queenie will dismiss Boris, even if he refuses to resign, and invite JC to attempt to form a government.
The government goes at the moment of the VONC loss
Not entirely true - the opposition has to demonstrate the ability to be able to form a new government, or the incumbent PM continues to sit. Basically, he's there until enough of a working alternative is presented to the queen to allow her to dismiss him.
And by 'working alternative', it has to be the opposition parties with coalition agreements/confidence and supply agreements demonstrably in place, rather than a load of folk moaning about how they would rather have Harriet Harman/Ken Clarke.
And during the 14 days after a MONC, the Conservatives also have the opportunity to try to re-create a working majority, it's not an open goal for Labour et al.
After 14 days, if no-one has made it over the line, then a second VONC would lead to a dissolution and a GE.
14 days to see if someone else can forma government that holds confidence – if not then a new election.
During that 14 days the outgoing government still controls business.
This is what BoJo & Co are counting on isn't it. If they can hang on in there till Mid-October then the clock is effectively run down for a VONC so it needs to happen within the next couple of weeks.
But Corbyn needs to understand and be clear, He's not actually going to be campaigning to win and be PM, but soley on the promise of participating in a coalition (with LDs, independents and any willing Cons) who will do three specific things
1: apply for an extension to allow for
2: a 2nd Referendum.
3: Once the outcome of that Referendum is implemented He will call a GE.
He should be clear also that 2nd referendum will be a "No-deal exit Vs Remain in the EU" vote with no room for half truths and painted busses BoJo/Moggy/Cummins and Nige can explain to the people why the No-deal Brexit they want is in their interests.
The Brexiteers Have had their chances to formulate a deal the majority of them can live with, the closest they seem to have come is Still May's offering, and now they're trying to run the clock down to a No-deal Brexit.
We're at a point so far beyond the scope of the original Referendum that it needs to be clearly voted on the only mechanism by which that can be achieved now is initiated with a VONC.
Pitch forks never achieved anything.
Liberté, égalité, fraternité?
martinhutch
VONC definitely carries a risk. The risk they won’t win it. Can they count on the support of the turfed-out Tories? Will Corbyn as a prospective interim PM put off a few MPs here and there?
Rory Stewart was on PM earlier in the week saying he wouldn't back a vote of no confidence as he didn't want Corbyn becoming PM.
Liberté, égalité, fraternité?
and The Greatest Showman.
Not entirely true – the opposition has to demonstrate the ability to be able to form a new government, or the incumbent PM continues to sit. Basically, he’s there until enough of a working alternative is presented to the queen to allow her to dismiss him.
And by ‘working alternative’, it has to be the opposition parties with coalition agreements/confidence and supply agreements demonstrably in place, rather than a load of folk moaning about how they would rather have Harriet Harman/Ken Clarke.
And during the 14 days after a MONC, the Conservatives also have the opportunity to try to re-create a working majority, it’s not an open goal for Labour et al.
After 14 days, if no-one has made it over the line, then a second VONC would lead to a dissolution and a GE.
Thanks for the explanation. I still see no risk here. Leader can be anyone, chosen by lottery, as Ken Clarke says the identity of the Caretaker is irrelevant. The Torys won't recreate a govt 'cos they want out ASAP. Agreements can be in place before the VONC, the government only needs to last a day or perhaps hours, long enough to do what they want Boris to do which is extend and call an election at which point parliament is stood down anyway.
Ian Blackford’s not an idiot, this is as close to risk free as anything can be.
Rory Stewart was on PM earlier in the week saying he wouldn’t back a vote of no confidence as he didn’t want Corbyn becoming PM.
Good for him, what about the rest?
The point isn't that they "want Corbyn" (half of his own MP's don't want him) it's that they simply Don't want Boris.
I'd go so far as to say that this particular VONC transcends part loyalties and is about MPs doing something that is actually in the national interest for a change... Imagine that Eh?
Ian Blackford has not that I have seen moved away from the common joint line.
Its interesting OOB that all the opposition parties disagree with you, all the constitutional experts disagree with you, all the political pundits disagree with you
the safest way is to get the extension before a VONC
Far from being unsafe, it's the *only* safe way.
Party leader Nicola Sturgeon said she "agreed" installing the Labour leader or "someone else" after a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson was the only" failsafe" option.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49850484
Good for him, what about the rest?
The point isn’t that they “want Corbyn” (half of his own MP’s don’t want him) it’s that they simply Don’t want Boris.I’d go so far as to say that this particular VONC transcends part loyalties and is about MPs doing something that is actually in the national interest for a change… Imagine that Eh?
...and in the vanishingly unlikely event that the VONC is going the "Government's way" Boris will send a couple of Tories round to "rebel" because he *wants* to lose. Or the least embarrassing way would be to try to get the DUP to vote with the opposition.