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It’s clear there are far too many stupid people who don’t understand the complexities of leaving
Unfortunately, one of those is the Prime Minister.
I think Corbyn's actions these last few weeks will help his election chances significantly. Whether or not it'll be enough is another question.
Get it done, in a case of no deal that means:
Setting up frontier checks including NI one way or another, more paperwork at borders and delays.
The need for a passport for Europeans, tourism from the EU takes a hit
The city loses its banking passport, Uk banks lose the majority of their internatinal business
Uk manufacturing becomes unatractive except for the domestic market
The pound crashes properly, interst rates are raised to prop up the pound and the housing market crashes
Economically active EU citizens in the UK realise they're not earning enough to qualify for residence, their wages are worth less and they're not wanted. They leave and can't be replaced as UK citizens don't have the skills or work attitude.
This isn't project fear it's just foreseeable consequences. But it hasn't happened yet and the pound is recovering which says market think it's not going to happen any time soon.
The election result will prob come down to tactical voting across leave and especially remain constituencies
I live in a blue/red marginal with Lib-Dems distant 3rd (20,000 votes distant). Labour will simply not win if Labour people switch to LibDem.
And whilst I’m here, can we not try and put some kind of coalition government together lead by Jess Phillips and Ken Clarke? They seem 2 of the very few sane voices in parliament at the moment.
There's been a lot of talk about an coalition or interim government. It could still happen, but it's a tough job. A lot of the Socialist side of Labour really don't like the LibDems, a lot of the LibDems and SNP won't sign up unless they're offered Proportional Representation or Scotish Indie Vote and whilst Ken Clarke has been made to look like a bit of a cuddly old Teddy Bear of late, but he was part of Thatchers Government which pretty much makes him the anti-Christ to a lot of people.
The sticking point is probably Corbyn, a lot of people, including himself will think that he it the only person to be PM as the Leader of the largest party in the Coalition, but his previous policies on the EU and lots of other things puts him fundamentally at odds with the LibDems, a party pretty much created to get away from Socialism.
Anyway, a chaotic as it is, our current parliament works, you have a real panto baddie as PM, but almost without power. He'll be the perfect lightening rod.
Would a Labour/Libdem agreement to field candidates tactically and run a coalition afterward, have any legs?
Anyway, a chaotic as it is, our current parliament works, you have a real panto baddie as PM, but almost without power. He’ll be the perfect lightening rod.
It's a bizarre electoral system currently. The FTP Act means a minority powerless government can't even throw in the towel and call an election without the permission of the opposition, who might be inclined to keep them in place to own their mess as long as it wants.
Funny to watch, though.
The temerity of all those stupid people eh… this sort of comment hardens people’s resolve to vote for a brexit, obviously
Well your comments suggest you have absolutely no understanding about the complexities of leaving. If it was easy and you could just 'get it done' without major ramifications, it would have been done long ago.
So yeah, I stick by my comment. Stupid people shouldn't get to vote on matters they don't understand that have far reaching consequences for the future of our country.
Unless you have a suggestion for just 'getting it done' that no one has yet thought of? If so, let's hear it? I'm sure it'll be well thought out....
Unless you have a suggestion for just ‘getting it done’ that no one has yet thought of
Educator had a good list for starters.
Tpbiker - your comments are not helping a calm, reasoned debate. Name calling, condescending responses don't engage anyone, people just get their preconceptions of "arrogant know it all remoaners" reinforced and the argument becomes even more polarised. Also this place becomes even more of an echo chamber if every dissenting view is bullied away - at least chewy is thick skinned enough to keep coming back, even if he doesn't always offer the most reasoned comments.
No chance of a Labour LibDem electoral pact.
The pacts will happen post election. I think for the remain ( or 2nd ref ) parties the order is:
Labour plus SNP, then green/PC, then LibDems. But I wouldn't see any unity beyond a 2nd ref. So 2nd ref, win or lose we would be rapidly in GE territory again
Thanks for contributing @davidbelstein, please do so again. Ignore the troll comments.
+1
AFAIC davidbelstein's comments are as welcome as everyone else's. I see no reason to try to silence people with different views to mine, quite the opposite alternative views should be welcome.
A 2nd ref would have to include how we want to leave or we're in the same mess
Mays deal, EEA/Norway (I'm sure farage would agree😉) /No deal/Remain*
Otherwise the last 3 years are repeated for a decade as we work out our future rekationship- which is the tricky part, withdrawal agreement was the easy bit !
* I know that splits the leave vote, but it's the honest conversation the brexiteers deliberately chose not to have with the electorate, & it's why they won, but it's also why what followed was chaos
re GE prospects
I've had a quick look at marginal seats: so if Labour take all marginals (1000 votes behind at 2017 GE) from torys they gain say 20, LD take their marginals (1000 seats) and gain 4 off torys
and assume SNP take over Scotland then the composition is Labour - 267, LB - 19 (=286) and tories are on 250, SNP on 50. A lab/LD/SNP coaltion is mixing oil and water but would have a decent working majority.
This is obviously a quick look so shoot me down by all means, Lib Dems are on course for a lot more seats but Im surprised that they don't have that more knife edge marginals - but i spose thats the balance of power in 2017 when they were up shit creek
Ive discounted the deselected 21 tories and all independents, and Brexit party will of course be a GE force and this doesn't take into account tactical voting on both sides of Brexit.
The pacts will happen post election.
Well… if the opposition parties (south of the border) think that they can treat this as just another election, and sort out the niceties of trying to form an alternative to a Conservative Brexit government AFTER the FPTP magic has denied them the numbers, then we are screwed.
It’s a bizarre electoral system currently. The FTP Act means a minority powerless government can’t even throw in the towel and call an election without the permission of the opposition, who might be inclined to keep them in place to own their mess as long as it wants.
Yes, in hindsight a badly thought out piece of legislation, although the current situation is a bit of an edge case.
Needs to be repealed as soon as the next government take over. (Although the new administration probably won't do so if they have a slim majority as they likely will have.)
... there are Lab marginals in very leave seats that may well go Tory - east mids/ s Yorks in particular.
The flip side is the metropolitan Tory seats may go LibDem
But stuff will change a lot through the campaign period
A lab/LD/SNP coaltion is mixing oil and water but would have a decent working majority.
If they wanted to do that they could do so today without an election at all and be in power for the next 3 years.
In spite of the seriousness of the situation they don't want to step up to the plate.
The one thing that it’s been good to see over the past couple of days in Parliament is some genuine outrage and real passion at what Johnson and Cummings are up too, from both sides of the house.
Best exemplified, as always, by Jess Phillips
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1169337961420337154?s=21
fingerbang I do not expect the lib dems to gain many if any seats. I expect a hung parliament
I do wish folk will stop talking about a SNP / labour deal - very unlikely given the tribal hatred for the SNP from scottish labour and also given the SNPs position. Supply and confidence in return for second scottish ref maybe. Nothing more than that. Certainly no coalition or SNP ministers
If a snap election is called around mid October, I'm a registered voter but will be out the country with work, how will I vote? I can't seem to find anything on line and it would seem I'm too late to register for a postal vote.
Unless you have a suggestion for just ‘getting it done’ that no one has yet thought of
Educator had a good list for starters.
You mean the list of stuff in his most recent post? It's not a list of solutions, it's a list of bad things that will seriously damage the economy. And before you shrug your shoulders and say 'who cares?' the economy is what employs everyone in the UK including presumably you, and it's also where our goverment's money comes from. So there'll be fewer jobs AND things will become more expensive, which will mean millions more people in poverty, the poor, vulnerable, the simply sick and even those with the audacity to be young and requiring an education will get an even shittier deal than they already have.
These are bad things. You do not want them to happen. I sure as hell don't want them to happen because of YOUR ideology.
Labours election campaign video
Good point there, just because you don't want no deal, doesn't mean you don't want Brexit.
As to how the boisterous negotiations are going:
https://twitter.com/PascalDePolla/status/1169377479510974464
… there are Lab marginals in very leave seats that may well go Tory – east mids/ s Yorks in particular.
The flip side is the metropolitan Tory seats may go LibDem
But stuff will change a lot through the campaign period
Anything could happen.
I think it will come down to Brexit, of course, but it will be won by the side who can get their shit together. Boris has become so Brexity that UKIP / Brexit Party cease to matter, so they might not even bother campaigning in certain areas to help them out to campaign in more Labour areas to try to steal votes away from labour.
The libs are going to come out fighting hard, not since 2010 have they had such momentum, but it's FPTP- wouldn't it be a shame if dozens of areas end up 30% lib 30% labour and 40% Tory.
Anyone who thinks the decision on an early election is easy or thinks hanging on to watch Boris suffer a death of a thousand cuts is a good idea should read the following which has just been posted on the Guardian live blog. It's not simple, and there is an extreme risk that the longer Boris plays the people vs parliament tune the stronger he will get. Look at it this way, he's got the labour party talking about nothing other than brexit, while he talks about the stuff labour is stronger on.
"[A senior government minister] also predicted the opposition parties are playing straight into [Dominic] Cummings’ hands — and that the Tories are now on course to win a snap election. “I’ve seen the numbers from CCHQ, it really is black and white,” they said. “People want it done. They love it when we talk about schools, hospitals and police; they love it when we talk about broadband; they hate it when we talk about Brexit — and these people have just voted to talk more about Brexit. Nobody wants to spend three, six months rowing about Brexit.” To repeat, this may well prove to be the case."
Boris has become so Brexity that UKIP / Brexit Party cease to matter
If you want to be certain of remain: vote Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP
If you want to be certain of Brexit: vote Brexit party
If you want years more of uncertainty and fudges: vote Labour or Conservative.
I'm watching from afar and if I've understood that I'm sure UK voters have. The Brexit party is not to be underestimated.
And if we think Blustering Bus Bollocks Blond Brexit Boris was bad.
Just try and imagine the Farage Farce that could be.
If you want 10 more years of Brexit negotiations and talking about them, support Brexit (deal or no deal).
If you want to stop talking about Brexit, support revoke (reform will always happen).
👇 See Kelvin’s post below 👇
…and these people have just voted to talk more about Brexit. Nobody wants to spend three, six months rowing about Brexit.
Then it is up to all decent people to make it clear that there is no “get it done and out of the way” option at all. It does not exit. It is a lie. A No Deal Brexit means a decade of hard politics dominated by our changing relationship with Europe and the world, and an ever changing chaotic regime for people and businesses.
If you want years more of uncertainty and fudges: vote Labour or Conservative.
Apart from Labour are offering the most sensible solution currently. Hold a referendum on remain vs another option.
The libdem revoke option is crap. It would fuel the anger of people claiming not to be represented and give johnson and his other burn the uk down group ammo.
With the referendum we get a choice between the two with no confusion around other policies.
Admittedly getting the brexiteers to come up with a sensible alternative option will be an arse.
Then it is up to all decent people to make it clear that there is no “get it done and out of the way” option at all
Since the brexiteers like Churchill perhaps should start trying his "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning" line on them and see if it sinks in.
Apart from Labour are offering the most sensible solution currently.
It’s a fudge still. I’m voting for it though. The non-Conservatives must be stopped, and the people must be given the chance to cancel Brexit, bin this boondoggle and free the UK from its damaging clutches.
Jo Johnson, Fallon, the rebels, theres a lot of 'safe' tory seats up for grabs
farage must be twitching in anticipation
farage must be twitching in anticipation
The Russian troll farms and dark money advertisers certainly are.
Educator had a good list for starters
Just to be 100% clear, you think this list is the best way to 'get it done?
Setting up frontier checks including NI one way or another, more paperwork at borders and delays.
The need for a passport for Europeans, tourism from the EU takes a hit
The city loses its banking passport, Uk banks lose the majority of their internatinal business
Uk manufacturing becomes unatractive except for the domestic market
The pound crashes properly, interst rates are raised to prop up the pound and the housing market crashes
Economically active EU citizens in the UK realise they’re not earning enough to qualify for residence, their wages are worth less and they’re not wanted. They leave and can’t be replaced as UK citizens don’t have the skills or work attitude.
As for this..
Tpbiker – your comments are not helping a calm, reasoned debate. Name calling, condescending responses don’t engage anyone, people just get their preconceptions of “arrogant know it all remoaners” reinforced and the argument becomes even more polarised. Also this place becomes even more of an echo chamber if every dissenting view is bullied away – at least chewy is thick skinned enough to keep coming back, even if he doesn’t always offer the most reasoned comments.
You can't have a reasoned debate with people who think that the list above is the way to go. I'll call them stupid because that's what they are. I have no inclination to pander to fools who are prepared to screw myself and future generations over for a no deal.
I'm not saying all leavers are stupid, the benefits of a negotiated exit can be argued, albeit I don't agree with them . But saying 'just get it' done shows no understanding of the issues at hand..and if you can't understand even the basic issues after 3 years of non stop arguing, then you are, in my book, stupid.
And people think the EU is good??
Ah, the "why do you love the EU so much?" straw man.
The thing is, whether the EU is "good" or not doesn't really matter. If the EU is "bad" then that may be a reason to want to leave, but the crux is that even if it were the most evil organisation in the world "just leaving" is not a great idea.
Everything else aside, we have spent 40 years integrating (voluntarily) with the EU, offloading admin so we don't have to do it, replacing UK deals (trade and otherwise) with EU ones (which are better than the ones we had) and so forth. If we "just leave" then all that ends, overnight. And as I've said before, sure, we could probably replace all that, but that would involve negotations, or "deals" if you like, and would take years.
If you like analogies: having a tumor is bad, but cutting it out yourself with a rusty breadknife would be worse, almost certainly fatal. If it must be removed then you need surgeons in place, anaesthesiologists, nurses, beds, operating tools, sterile areas...
AFAIC davidbelstein’s comments are as welcome as everyone else’s. I see no reason to try to silence people with different views to mine, quite the opposite alternative views should be welcome.
Agreed. Living in an echo chamber isn't desireable. Play nicely, people.
Sticking your head round the door of an echo chamber and going "JFDI!!!!" isn't offering an alternative view.
If you like analogies:
Oooh! Love an analogy.
The referendum was like a choice between two platters of food.
The first one contained a sandwich, filled with ingredients from all over Europe. It's taken us 40 years to refine the recipe for making this sandwich but it's undoubtedly nutritious and we've all been eating the same sandwich for decades.
Some people don't like some of the ingredients, some are bored of eating the same sandwich, some just hate sandwiches on general principle.
The other platter is covered by a huge, ornate polished, silver cloche. It's never actually been lifted but we've been assured that whatever is underneath is delicious and there's enough for everyone and it smells heavenly.
Lots of people voted to see what was underneath but, it turns out, nobody is able to lift it without help from the European sandwich makers.
Three years later, we're still wondering but the cloche is now dented and tarnished and there's a distinct whiff of shite emanating from underneath it. That doesn't deter those who still believe in their heart of hearts that it's still a roast beef dinner.
I don't think it is.
I'd just like a sandwich.
Are you going to answer my question on how the current situation tallies with your original assertation that you wanted a Norway style deal?
I’ll call them stupid because that’s what they are.
Don't. It is worse than useless. It hardens their position. You cannot get through to someone by insulting them. Even if you think it, don't say it, otherwise you are part of the problem we have which is one of tribalism and irreconciliation.
Oooh! Love an analogy.
The referendum was like a choice between two platters of food.
The first one contained a sandwich, filled with ingredients from all over Europe. It’s taken us 40 years to refine the recipe for making this sandwich but it’s undoubtedly nutritious and we’ve all been eating the same sandwich for decades.
Some people don’t like some of the ingredients, some are bored of eating the same sandwich, some just hate sandwiches on general principle.
The other platter is covered by a huge, ornate polished, silver cloche. It’s never actually been lifted but we’ve been assured that whatever is underneath is delicious and there’s enough for everyone and it smells heavenly.
Lots of people voted to see what was underneath but, it turns out, nobody is able to lift it without help from the European sandwich makers.
Three years later, we’re still wondering but the cloche is now dented and tarnished and there’s a distinct whiff of shite emanating from underneath it. That doesn’t deter those who still believe in their heart of hearts that it’s still a roast beef dinner.
I don’t think it is.
I’d just like a sandwich.
Or, as the angry old man's favourite mouthpiece (Clarkson) said it, voting Leave was like voting for a 16" Penis.
Dave is a manager at a branch of Tesco. He's been there a while, and managed to make it onto the board of directors.
One day, Dave decides he's had enough of Tesco telling him what to do (despite having been on the board and making executive decisions for them for the last 40 years) and decides he wants to go it alone. After all, he used to run a corner shop and he did OK.
So he rings up the CEO, tells him to **** off, and rebrands as Dave's Mini-Mart.
Then suddenly he realises, he doesn't have a distributor. Tesco used to do all the ordering. So he rings round a few, gets a couple of offers but finds that, as a sole trader, the rates he's getting are much higher than they were for an International chain. "Oh well," he thinks, "it's a price worth paying to be able to deal with who I like."
Month end comes around, he has to file his taxes and.. wait, he doesn't have an accountant. Tesco used to do all the paperwork, and he doesn't understand any of this himself. What to do?
Dave decides to specialise in local produce, buying food in from a local farm, and whilst some of the locals are keen on this they still want to buy lots of other things too. Eventually though, most of his old customers have decided that they still want to shop at Tesco. The prices are much cheaper and they've got a better selection, and besides, that's where they've always shopped, they've got Clubcards and everything. It seems Dave's home-made jam is popular but not enough to keep the business afloat.
Despondent and broke, Dave rings up his old mates at Tesco head office. "Sure, we'd love to have you back," they say, "you were a good worker and a great guy. We've got an opening for a shop assistant, how does minimum wage sound?"