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So, caretaker government is out, and they're planning on legislation to prevent no-deal.
What are the possibilities for legislation then?
I think we all know the answer to that.
I'm guessing the legislation will be to force a revocation of article 50 if s no deal becomes otherwise unavoidable.
That would force Boris to call a GE if he can't get a deal done
This option will be much easier for Tory rebel backing than supporting a VONC and transitional PM (even if it wasn't Corbyn), as it opposes Govt policy not Government right to rule. I realise it is effectively a VONC but the subtle differences matter
What are the possibilities for legislation then?
I don't really know but I know some tories support this approach, so it might well have the numbers in the commons, but what I'm unsure of is the time scales V's the deadline and the vehicle/mechanism that could be used..
Anyone?
What are the possibilities for legislation then?
By the sounds of it, nobody really knows. It doesn't look good though.
As we don't have a written constitution, a lot of it is dependent on parliamentary precedent, convention and its interpretation. The problem with that now being fairly obvious. We have an administration that doesn't give a flying **** about parliamentary precedent and convention and is happy to do whatever is necessary to force its agenda through, up to and including suspending parliament.
It's possible that the most significant person involved in all this, for the next couple of months, is going to be John Bercow. Boris has had a few shots across the bows on that front already, so it looks like he knows that too
Yep it's down to Bercow to allow MPs to vote to take over the business of the house, then pass the No No Deal legislation of their choosing. I don't think they'll get enough support for revoke so expect it'll be another extension.
But an extension is unlikely to be agreed unless for a ref or a GE..
Boris can call a GE next week for the 17th of October.
It all points to that.
Think he needs 2/3 of parliament to support a GE outside the fixed term parliament, so they can theoretically prevent him from using it as a tactic to let no deal happen while nobody's at the wheel. Of course that involves politicans turning down a chance to be in power, and would make JC's life difficult as its what he's been asking for since whenever (well, that and rural bus services natch).
Think he needs 2/3 of parliament to support a GE outside the fixed term parliament
That ship has already sailed. Corbyn has already said, only this morning, that if Boris calls an election then he'll back it. Which will presumably involve 3 line whipping his MPs to support.
Turkeys... Christmas... same old, same old...
Starmer reckons a GE on 17 Oct would allow new PM to extend A50 for a 2nd ref. If that is true then Labour and other 2nd ref parties would vote for it
Isn’t this a sensible compromise that respects the result of the referendum while avoiding no deal?
No. As I've explained at length multiple times on here.
The elephant in the room is that whilst May's deal is a best-case brexit scenario, arguably better than anyone could have hoped for, it's self-evidently worse than what we currently have. We get most of the benefits we currently enjoy, and still be held to most of our commitments for that to happen, only we'll no longer have a say at the table. We go from being rule-makers to rule-takers, it gains us nothing, which rather begs the question "why bother, then?" This is (I assume) why it's been kicked out of parliament several times. It's only a compromise in so far as neither side, leave or remain, want it.
Not that it deserves it, but the referendum result has been respected. We've spent three years trying to achieve the fundamentally unachievable.
We’ve spent three years trying to achieve the fundamentally unachievable.
That’s the problem though isn’t it? If we are a member of something which doesn’t allow it’s members to leave then is that something we want to be part of? That’s not my opinion BTW but it’s what all the Brexiteers will say, and many will agree with them.
If we are a member of something which doesn’t allow it’s members to leave then is that something we want to be part of?
You can leave any time you want. You just trigger Article 50 and off you pop. As it happens, it'll be October 31st.
Leaving isn't the issue as long as you're prepared to accept the consequences, which will be severe and many.
It seems that a lot of people are quite happy to do that.
They won't be by a week into November, obviously. Then they'll all be howling about this not being what they voted for and how has the government allowed this to happen, and how could the EU be so evil.
At that point, I think it's completely legitimate to punch them
That’s the problem though isn’t it? If we are a member of something which doesn’t allow it’s members to leave then is that something we want to be part of? That’s not my opinion BTW but it’s what all the Brexiteers will say, and many will agree with them.
That's not the case though, we can leave whenever we want, but our benefits and influence dissolve with our membership.
That's what brexiters don't understand.
^ we are a member as it ensures we get benefits for the costs of our membership, if we are no longer members then it falls to reason that we will no longer benefit, we will be in a less financially advantageous position.
So anyone still advocating leaving, especially with a no deal is therefore a ****ing idiot.
Brexit in a sentence
That’s not the case though, we can leave whenever we want, but our benefits and influence dissolve with our membership.
That’s what brexiters don’t understand.
It's not even that. We're not just a "member" of the EU, we're a part of it and it is a part of us, like eggs in a cake. We've spent four decades offloading crap we didn't want to deal with and superseding things like trade deals with better ones negotiated with the additional clout of 27 other countries on our side. What brexiters don't seem to want to understand is that unpicking all that is complicated.
Leaving is easy. No-one is stopping us if that's what we want to do, despite what the Daily Express would have us believe. Leaving in an orderly fashion without destroying the country in the process, that's a tricksier proposition. It's like having an operation with a team of surgeons, nurses, anaesthesiologists etc in place versus standing in your GP's office with a rusty Stanley knife shouting "I don't understand why you can't just cut it out!"
They won’t be by a week into November, obviously. Then they’ll all be howling about this not being what they voted for and how has the government allowed this to happen.
Sadly, I don't think that will happen. If political events in recent years have taught us anything, it's that carefully structured rhetoric and misinformation give politicians power.
If Boris Johnson does what he is insisting upon, there will always be a hardcore few to who he will be a hero. And when they're stood at the job centre after their company has folded, they will be Blaming Theresa May, or the EU, or parliament, or anything else someone can muster up a vague excuse from.
The collective mentality and the bias of the human mind is a huge problem here, which either does not appear to be understood, or those who do understand it have not been given a voice.
And when it all goes bad, those who created the problem will not be seeking to backtrack, they will make even more outlandish claims, and come up with more outlandish and divisive solutions. It's really quite worrying.
standing in your GP’s office with a rusty Stanley knife shouting “I don’t understand why you can’t just cut it out!”
this is probably best case scenario for NHS in 5 years time at present rate.
this is probably best case scenario for NHS in 5 years time at present rate.
A more likely scenario is that they'll refuse to cut it out with that stanley knife until you provide evidence of your healthcare insurance or give them your credit card.
If political events in recent years have taught us anything, it’s that carefully structured rhetoric and misinformation give politicians power.
Forget recent years, this has always been the case.
If we are a member of something which doesn’t allow it’s members to leave then is that something we want to be part of?
We were allowed to hold a referendum on whether to Leave or to Remain in a union with other countries. That sounds pretty democratic. Surely no one could object to that?
Hell, now that all the facts are known, we're even allowed to have another!
Leaving isn’t the issue as long as you’re prepared to accept the consequences, which will be severe and many.
Same difference. The leavers will say that being part of an organisation which doesn't allow you to leave without committing economic suicide is as much a reason to leave as any, and it will fuel the 'evil-empire' narrative with the plucky UK rebels standing up for their independence.
They would even have a point if this was just an academic argument about democracy and self-determinism. Trouble is it's not and it will affect the lives of millions.
The leavers will say that being part of an organisation which doesn’t allow you to leave without committing economic suicide is as much a reason to leave as any
Apart from it isnt doing so. So need a slightly more intelligent argument.
The leavers will say that being part of an organisation which doesn’t allow you to leave without committing economic suicide is as much a reason to leave as any
In which case it's only reasonable to point out that they're a complete ****ing moron.
Its why they don't give monkeys guns.
I'm a member of a club of people who have two feet. I arrived at it through millions of years of evolution. I suppose that I could leave the club by simply pointing a shotgun at one of those feet and pulling the trigger.
I have been reliably informed that there will be many benefits to doing this. I will feel liberated from a world devised to purely suit the interests of those bastards with two feet, I shall have cheaper footwear costs and I've been promised a truly marvelous blue sock
I’m a member of a club of people who have two feet.
Daft analogies/metaphors like that only fuel the problem. Whether we like it or not, self-determination is quite an important issue for a lot of people, especially if they feel they're not being served by the current system. Until fundamental reform of the EU is on the table this will never go away. If we leave without a deal, it will be very bad. If we don't leave at all, it will be very bad (however much remainers like to deny it). The middle ground just kicks the can down the road.
I’m a member of a club of people who have two feet.
at least you are above average at something 😉
Yup the economic suicide of no deal Brexit and the complaining of some halfwits if we remain are definitely the same level of bad.
Until fundamental reform of the EU is on the table this will never go away
That's some big words, so what sort of fundamental reform are you thinking of here?
I try not to be funny or condescending here, but, we already have elections for MEPs and an EU political assembly and all that stuff. In a large way (but maybe I'm being really stupid) that kind of seems like a democratic and self-determining type of setup and process.
What do you think can be proposed to make the 'average Brexit voter' EVER consider accepting the EU in a different form?
The leavers will say that being part of an organisation which doesn’t allow you to leave without committing economic suicide is as much a reason to leave as any,
The thing is,
So what?
We've got to a point where "the will of the people" is deemed sacrosanct. We've had three years of hearing what they want, or what they think they want, but the UK is a representative democracy not a direct one. What they want is a complete irrelevance and it's long past time that that screaming "but we want it" should be met with "and?" I don't doubt that if questioned there's plenty of things they want, I bet a referendum to abolish taxation would be enormously popular. That doesn't mean it's a good idea and it certainly doesn't mean that we should do it whatever the cost.
What do you think can be proposed to make the ‘average Brexit voter’ EVER consider accepting the EU in a different form?
Seems to me that most of the objection is built on sand. They don't like the idea of the EU (and with my reference to my previous post: who cares?) but when pushed to explain themselves it's all "unelected bureaucrats telling us what to do" which is devoid of any basis in fact. As difficult as it is to educate gammon pork, dispelling some of these lies could be a good start.
Our UK representatives are fully a tenth of the entire EU parliament, in a very real sense we tell the EU what to do rather than the other way around. Why would you want to abandon that?
I was talking to a lib dem activist today who is a big Swinson fan and lives in her constituency. He agreed she made a major blunder over her rejection of Corbyns overtures. Too keen to make a mark and totally misjudgment from an inexperienced leader was his take
Oh - and note todays cross party meeting Corbyn has put country before party and before his own ambitions - he is not insisting on any particular course of action - what a surprise - he is not the monster the press pretend he is
Why Cougar?
2ww and 1wc is the obvious answer.
Whether we like it or not, self-determination is quite an important issue for a lot of people, especially if they feel they’re not being served by the current system.
The question is are they right about not being served? If no then its a case of explaining that to them possibly by pointing out many of the scare stories were by a lying journalist who was too lazy to write accurate reports.
If yes then it needs addressing. However the evidence for this is limited when you see how often in the past the UK side won in pushing policy. Thats even with a bunch of MEPs who cant be arsed to engage.
Oh – and note todays cross party meeting Corbyn has put country before party and before his own ambitions – he is not insisting on any particular course of action – what a surprise – he is not the monster the press pretend he is
Swinsons comments were a bit knee jerk, and it seems like she has understood this. However they are completely understandable.
Hardly supprising given Jeremies line before these meetings kicked off, that they want to block a tory brexit, suggesting he thought he could push a 'better' Labour brexit through, despite the signed and sealed WA.
His words also alluded that he would lead any interim government, which he simply wouldn't get the numbers for... That's what Jo was pointing out with her 'nonsense' comment.
Whether we like it or not, self-determination is quite an important issue for a lot of people
They're going to be in for a bit of a shock when they see what preconditions are applied to even enter any talks about future trade deals then, particularly with cuddly uncle Donald.
he is not the monster the press pretend he is
I don't think many on here buy the Daily Mail line that he's some communist who eats babies and wants to nationalise and unionise air and abolish the armed forces
The objection to him is that he's just a bit shit, he's been all but invisible for the last 3 years, and has totally failed to provide any serious opposition to what is a hard right project that will hit workers hardest while the rich line their pockets. And given his lifelong Euroscepticism and hostility to the EU its not difficult to see why. He's a Brexiteer. That's why he's not trusted on this issue
And let's not get too carried away... his preferred option is obviously still some red-unicorn Brexit fantasy, that in his own head he still sees himself negotiating at some point.
He's only voiced any opposition to Brexit at the 59th minute of the eleventh hour once we're on the brink of no deal and it's become glaringly obvious exactly how damaging that will be. He still wants us out of the EU. Just on his terms.
If we leave without a deal, it will be very bad. If we don’t leave at all, it will be very bad (however much remainers like to deny it). The middle ground just kicks the can down the road.
The middle ground of what? Some sort of deal? Been there, tried that, three times.
No daz, again, the remain block is the only one that is unified in what it wants. The leave group is split in to multiple factions of 'leave but not too much', to 'blow both legs off our economy'. What actually serves the largest number of people the outcome they want, is not to leave. Sorry. Handily it's also the option that doesn't throw the economy in to the toilet too. What's also interesting is that a large swathe of leavers will also turn round and say 'oh well, never thought we'd get it anyway, never mind.'
They would even have a point if this was just an academic argument about democracy and self-determinism.
It would be a ****ing stupid one, though. Still.
We WANTED the benefits of close cooperation and grudgingly accepted some of the limitations. Brexiteers still want the benefits, but none of the compromises. Brexiteers are, mostly, dupes.
Actually mildly heartened by Corbyn's comments today.
The Cummings response. I’m sure we’ll be seeing a lot more of this
https://twitter.com/conservatives/status/1166362662231580673?s=21
Wooing back the Faragists for the upcoming election
Brexiteers still want the benefits, but none of the compromises.
That was certainly the case to start with, but since the lunatics took over the asylum I'm not sure that even this is true any more. The moderates have all but disappeared now and the remaining shouty gammons simply don't care. Out at any costs, leave means leave, **** business, **** the NHS, **** education, **** collaboration, **** supplies of luxuries like food and medicine, it's all a price worth paying.
How in the name of your deity of choice did we come to this?
The Cummings response. I’m sure we’ll be seeing a lot more of this
Ah yes, that answers my question rather succinctly.
How in the name of your deity of choice did we come to this?
The drip, drip, drip messaging from the likes of the Daily Fail and the pure toxic cynicism of the likes of Farage, Cummings et al.
“THEY, will tell you that you are stupid, but you are the chosen ones”.
Actually, they are just effing stupid.
Lots of promising grown up type talk after today’s cross party meetings. About time. Let’s embrace it for as long as it lasts.