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They were interviewing a pollster on Radio 4 yesterday Molls. It was really interesting. He basically said that none of them have got a clue how the present 4-way split would play out in terms of seats at a General Election, and anyone who says they do is lying or stupid.
Because when you've 4 parties all polling within spitting distance of each other, tactical voting ceases. A lot of people previously who's preference would be to vote for the Lib Dems, for example, but considered it a wasted vote which would let the tories win, so they hold their noses and vote labour. Now they'll look at the polls and say '**** it! I'm voting for my first choice as they've just as much chance as my second option, soI don't have to vote tactically. Same applies with Farages lot and the Tories
As the polling now shows, this is massively damaging to the main parties as they are now no longer the only game in town. Daz's idea that the voters who deserted labour at the local and EU elections will return at a GE in significant numbers looks less and less likely as this polling deadlock continues
One things for sure. The next general election is going to be a car crash and absolutely impossible to call
In fairness you would need some very good analytical models running to see exactly what impact going all out remain, versus hedging, versus Labour Brexit taking into consideration on how each voter in each constituency would vote. What would tip them to Brexit party, what would tip them to Lib Dems, even if they are tipped to Lib Dems are enough people tipped to matter etc,. etc,.
Exactly why I have said it is easy to comment from the sidelines but doing the analysis for the various scenarios is another matter.
Daz’s idea that the voters who deserted labour at the local and EU elections will return at a GE in significant numbers looks less and less likely as this polling deadlock continues
The evidence of pretty much every general election has shown that voters retreat to the two main parties despite poll changes in intermediate elections. 2017 was one of the more extreme examples of this. The next one is different obviously but I think the 4 way split will move back towards being weighted in favour of the two main parties. The main reason for thinking this is that tribal anti-tory sentiment is extremely strong in normal times and even more so today with Boris at the helm. I may well be wrong but I think many voters will return to labour once the campaign gets going.
The evidence of pretty much every general election has shown that voters retreat to the two main parties despite poll changes in intermediate elections. 2017 was one of the more extreme examples of this.
This is true.
From the Labour side of things it was said that JC enjoyed a surge of support from new, young voters, but new young voters often vote Labour (it's sad by cynical old Gammon types that they switch to the Tories when they "grow up a bit") and post-election data showed this wasn't unusual.
Labour did better than expected because, at the last moment, older middle aged centrics (like myself) looked at the likelihood of a Pro-EU party actually winning their seat, added that to some last minute pro-EU words from Labour and decided that they didn't want to 'waste' their vote and couldn't bare to stay away. In return we got an emboldened Jeremy Corbyn pushing for his version of Brexit.
Unlike 2017 I personally won't vote tactically again, or for Labour under Corbyn what's the point? UKIP/Brexit haven't won a thing, but because of their popular vote they form policy by proxy. Labour, as official opposition, don't.
P-jay's point is a fair one, and to expand on that, the reason that policy is shaped by UKIP/Brexit is that it is they who currently will steal Tory voters. Labour need a stance on a number of things, brexit being the obvious that will steal more votes from the left of the Tory party than brexit will from the right. At that point Labour become relevant and influential.
At that point Labour become relevant and influential.
The two words that scream out at you when you look at Jeremy Corbyn
The Tory's have conducted themselves over the last 3 years like the labour party wasn't even there. As to all intents and purposes, it wasn't. Still isn't, so can be duly ignored
Farage, on the other hand, terrifies them to such a degree that he might as well have just issued a list of demands to the Tory party onthe day of the referendum result. He has consistently driven their policy further and further to the extreme right for years now, and continues to do so.
Hunt and Johnson are presently just parroting his latest statements.
It’s terrifying!
Farage, on the other hand, terrifies them
Not because of his skill and capability though. Corbyn's cleverer than Farage by miles. It's just that Farage has given himself a much easier challenge.
Sorry Molls - and it pains me to say this, it really does - but Farage is the most influential and effective politician of his generation
He has achieved all his goals, and then some, during the course of which he's taken not a shred of responsibility for any of it. He's forced the Tory party to do all his dirty work for him while he's just sat in the pub, or gobbed off about it on Question Time.
During that time Jeremey Corbyn has achieved the square root of **** all!
it pains me to say this
+1
Incredibly effective, I assume it's a combination of his "plain speaking", a significant chunk of cash (that no other political party can match because of election laws) pushing him along and the media's desperate need for "balance", no matter how idiotic it is. All gets him in front of a susceptible public and pushes against the door of public opinion that's been wedged open by the ERG and the Right wing press over the last 20 years.
Hate and admire (wrong word but closest I can come up with) him in equal measure.
Sorry Molls – and it pains me to say this, it really does – but Farage is the most influential and effective politician of his generation
Influential yes, but I didn't say he wasn't influential, just that he wasn't skillful. He jumped on an easy bandwagon and has to do basically nothing except say BREXIT! at the top of his voice. Skilled political operator he is not. It was an open goal. If he somehow became prime minister he'd be worse than useless.
Who would you rather have running the country out of Corbyn, Johnson or Farage?
Skilled political operator he is not. It was an open goal. If he somehow became prime minister he’d be worse than useless.
he's achieved exactly his goals and let someone else deal with all the downsides, if that's not skilled I don't know what it.
Who would you rather have running the country out of Corbyn, Johnson or Farage?
Wow, what a choice that is. Corbyn, just. But that's like asking if I want to be hit in the balls, face or kidney.
just that he wasn’t skillful
Eh? You're kidding, right?
When Farage embarked on his mission Brexit didn't even exist, except in the mind of a tiny minority of absolute headbangers at the far right fringes of the Tory party and members of the National Front and BNP.
Farage managed to shed its openly racist clothes, gave it a respectable front, then made it mainstream, then forced to the very top of the political agenda, to the point that the Prime Minister had no option but to give him the referendum he'd craved for twenty years, which through a well managed, emotive, populist campaign he then won (against absolutely everyones expectations). Successfully deposing said PM in the process, he st about ensuring Daves successors were then so scared of him they basically allowed him to dictate the subsequent political direction of the country
Quite some skill, no?
If he somehow became prime minister he’d be worse than useless.
As I've already mentioned, he has no interest in that. Never has. Never will. He wants power without responsibility, and he's got it in spades! He's achieved everything he set out to do, while taking responsibility for none of it, and leaving everyone else to clean up his mess
Who would you rather have running the country out of Corbyn, Johnson or Farage?
None of the above, preferably
Boris.
At least then it will be the enemy ****ing the country up and not the left.
It’ll be entertaining as well, Corbyngeddon would be a very dull slide into economic ruin.
The hate headlines are talking of brexit betrayal by Corbyn.
That's a step in the right direction .
In other brexit dividend news,
To nobodies surprise whatsoever, another large company announces Brexodus.
he’s achieved exactly his goals and let someone else deal with all the downsides, if that’s not skilled I don’t know what it.
Even I can score in front of an open goal. Doesn't make me a great footballer.
Farage didn't create Brexit out of a pro-EU country. People have been anti-EU for decades, since the start even. The Sun, Mail and co whipped it up almost every week, Farage just opened his mouth first. Political skill is forging a consensus and creating support. Farage doesn't do this. He just put his face to a feeling that was already there.
He might not be politically skillful, but you can't deny he is good at what he does.
In other news I understand he had said that in a ge, if the conservatives stand on a platform of no deal brexit, he won't field candidates against them.
People have been anti-EU for decades, since the start even
In the first referendum, 17,378,581, 67.23% of the vote, seemed to think it was a good idea.
He might not be politically skillful, but you can’t deny he is good at what he does.
Yes, populism he is good at that. But that is easier than actually trying to sell something that might actually be better for people. It is very easy to just say all the problems are the fault of immigrants and it has been used many times over the years by many people. Only a ****er would actually think that is the right thing to do though.
It looks like even the (relatively) sane Tory MPs are now going full ‘No Deal’ now that Boris is to be crowned
We truly are absolutely ****ed!
Amber Rudd embraces no deal Brexit as ministers pitch to Johnson
They’re now all hell bent on this insanity! God help us!
Well, looks like the big spending for no deal prep will occur then, if every Tory MP with an eye on a key job supports doing so… watch where that money gets spent… there's a lot of money being thrown at key Tory politicians (rather than the Party) now… it'll get returned many times over in the autumn, I suspect.
I'm not that convinced that Farridge is a skilled operator - the Tories were swinging into an anti-EU position back when IDS was their leader and Stuart Wheeler was bankrolling them, he surfed a wave and used other people's money.
Amber Rudd backing no deal is scary.
he surfed a wave and used other people’s money.
He has certainly been influential but, as you say, there was a large part of the tory party following the same path and also a significant portion of the press.
Amber Rudd backing no deal is scary.
Completely predictable though.
So… in seats traditionally a Tory/Labour battle ground, where other parties have had little to no presence in the past, it's still received wisdom that people will return to the big two when it comes to an actual vote, rather than answering polling questions …
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1149456877509648389?s=21
By all means argue that Brexit policy isn't a factor… but only if you genuinely believe that, please.
Lol one poll in one constituency does not a government make, but still...
Lol one poll in one constituency does not a government make, but still…
That's not a poll, it's an election result.
Whoops! My mistake, sorry. Good for the lib Dems!
Quick Q, who are YORK ? they are more popular than UKIP or LAB
LAB should be worried...
That is an absolutely incredible result.
How did that region vote in the Referendum?
Did they not field a candidate last time or something?
Quick Q, who are YORK ? they are more popular than UKIP or LAB
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorkshire_Party
LAB should be worried…
A council seat which are often even more of an excuse for protest votes than the EU elections.
cheers Verses - not going to make the usual sarky comments about a Yorkshire republic 🙂 I actually am happy that political reform is being stood for, we need it in the UK.
just spotted that LAB nearly were beaten by an independent !!!
I don't disagree Dissonance but they are the opposition and have taken a big hit, as have the in power party
How did that region vote in the Referendum?
60% leave apparently...
EDIT, correction, East yourshire as a wjole voted 60% leave.
Yeah, East Riding is the smallest you can zoom in on for 2016 referendum result:
Remain: 78,779
Leave: 120,136
Bridlington has always been very Tory… and if you've been there… you'd guess to it having had a high Leave vote.
Meanwhile, our shiny new MEPs are off to a glorious start.
https://twitter.com/RowlandBrexitSE/status/1148987466721964034
... and also, probably needs geography lessons.
Meanwhile, our shiny new MEPs are off to a glorious start.
On the one hand she has already attended as many meetings as Farage managed over several years.
On the other hand looks like she did sod all of any use there.
I like the idea of some poor sod halfway up the Seine quietly fishing suddenly having a submarine torpedo them. Not sure its overly practical though.
He does seem a proper man of the people though. Guess he is trying to make a name for himself.
I think this is great - I honestly didn't realise we were going to annex northern France and the low countries - awesome!
That Bridlington result! Makes me hope the LDs can win round my way. Time to help them canvass, perhaps.
It's only a local ward, so not that informative, but it is interesting that in the kind of strongly traditionally Conservative area, where the "if you don't vote Labour, you'll get Conservative" narrative can be strongest, things can pan out this way. I think "staying away" was a big part of the result here… the turnout was low… but fear that may well be so in a general election as well… plenty of people thinking "none of them" currently.
That's the thing though, yes small wards up for grabs through attrition.. But are showing interestingly large swings to remain parties .. Peterborough was another interesting one.. Widely thought to be a home run for the brexit party, labour just about snatched it from the tories.
Both staunch leave areas previously..
The lib dems seem to be attracting a lot more remainers than the brexit party are attracting leavers.
Labour and Conservativea are losing ground in both scenarios in staunch leave areas.
A GE would be impossible to predict.. There are not 2 main parties any more, there are 3. Possibly 4 if the brexit party manage to field a decent number of candidates, but that will mostly dilute the tory vote.
We might see a truly hung parliament with 33/33/33. Or 25/25/25/25 %