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If you count Lab and Con as Leave parties
I think they count as rabbit-caught-in-the-headlights parties.
Best ignored for the purposes of this discussion.
My God, how did we get here?
Oh yes, to make sure the Tory party didn’t haemorrhage power to Farage.
The irony is f****** sickening.
Things I take from this.
1/ the nation is sick of Brexit arguments, but not sufficiently sick to bother turning out for an indicative position taking on it. I hope that wouldn't be the case in a 2nd referendum or GE
2/ Brexit Party have not swept the board, they've basically taken over UKIP's voters and some from CON/LAB
3/ Reflecting 1, if a side should have been motivated to turn out it should have been the Brexiteers. I haven't added up but using a bit of guess work and others numbers, in a nation of 65M, 75% of whom are voting age, there's 49M voters. The Brexit parties got 35% of a 37% turn out = 25%. 1 in 4 of voting age in this country is pro hard brexit, and while I'll accept they aren't all racist gammony frothers, that scares me.
4/ Farage's previous comments that UKIP are not a one man band look rather hollow. No matter his politics, he is a bloody good politician in terms of getting airtime and his message over, he's probably the best at doing what he does. He's also the best at being what he is.....but you can add your own bit to that.
5/ Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. Hahahahahahahahaha.
Said this last night...
A long night but so far a good night for the Brexit Now Party, but not for leave overall (on votes, not MEPs, which is what would count in a third referendum).
Looks about right this morning.
Any Tory votes were as likely to be remain as leave, and probably similar with labour.
The Brexit parties got 35% of a 37% turn out = 25%
I think you over estimate. Say 13%
Hmmm, I think this is an excellent time if you have get up and go, to get up and go.
Australia is a great place to be, so long as you're not just looking for a warmer version of England. Opportunities abound, especially away from the cities.
Meanwhile in Scotland, I can see life is about to get very interesting. We're shackled to a sinking ship*, but may be able to get our lifeboat away. The real fight is about to start.
.
.
*Sorry, I mean most Scots think it's sinking. I realise that may not be the opinion of the majority of the passengers on the afterdeck of SS Titanic...
Australia, hmm. At least in the U.K. the dangerous wee beasties are only trying to destroy your country and not actually kill you.
doomanic
Australia, hmm. At least in the U.K. the dangerous wee beasties are only trying to destroy your country and not actually kill you.
Nature culls idiots in Oz.
Generally you have to be pretty stupid to get killed by our dangerous wee beasties.
The only active predator on humans is the crocodile, and you have to be denser than stupid to get taken by one of them.
Otherwise you have to be extremely unlucky (as the death stats show).
I think if your aim is to get away from racists trying to destroy their own country then maybe Australia is not the best choice.
Now the big question will be how many were turned away from the voting booths. I wonder if it would have made a significant difference.
Now the big question will be how many were turned away from the voting booths. I wonder if it would have made a significant difference.
I'd like to see some numbers but it's extremely unlikely to have made a material difference, given it wasn't FPTP. I think it was down to incompetence rather than malice, the malice came later when the "will of the people" contingent cheered it.
And I don't know what was so funny about Yaxley-Lennon's result, tens of thousands of people voted for him FFS.
Has anyone seen figures with London and/or Scotland stripped out?
I have a feeling that were it not for the moderating influence of the capital the majority vote from the rest of the country would be pro-Brexit- correct?
Hmm strong voting for parties that clearly defined their stance on Brexit. Both remain and leave. few things
1, this will encourage the next Tory PM to be a strong brexiteer.
2. Labour need to reconsider their campaign of a GE to decide. They need to become a Remain party.
3. this will make a compromise in Parliament even more difficult
My way of working out the Brexit vote is:
All of Brexit
All of UKIP
1/3 of Labour
1/2 of conservative
On that basis the result is not so very different from the referendum. The low turnout is the most disappointing part. You'd have thought remainers would have got out to vote ofr anyone clearly remain. They haven't which leads me to suspect that the apathetic majority of 63% is happy to go along with Brexit.
The main problem it seems is that most people couldn't give a ****.
It saddens me that for the first time in my life i've actually thought that Scotland leaving the UK Is a good idea. Jesus. F*** this I'm off back to NZ
The NE Brexit Party MEP from Scotland will be celebrating at home in France today. 🤷🏻♂️
Scotland hasn't been returned yet, nor has NI, when they have I imagine the percentage numbers will be more pro remain, but it will be very close still
The main problem it seems is that most people couldn’t give a ****
They need a celebrity leader to get them motivated - someone like Joe Swash or Rachel Riley. Sadly, celebrity informs public opinion for too many.
Scotland hasn’t been returned yet
Only the Western Isles results to come in and there's not enough to change any of the figures significantly. Probably less than 5,000 votes in total.
Faragists 2.0 up by 31.6% but Faragists 1.0 down by 24.2% - net swing 7.4%
Meanwhile LDs, Greens and ChUK up by 21% combined. Plus another 1.4% if you include the Scots and Welsh nationalists.
So a more polarised result than last time, but characterised by the remain vote starting to copy the leave vote and walking away from Labour and Tories.
On seats, Leavers gained 5, but remainers gained 18.
A great night for Farage, but not leave.
Also a great night for remain, but not for any one remain party.
A series of remain alliances could easily spell the end of Brexit - but can they organise?
(Note - pre the last couple of declarations - but I doubt they’ll change the flavour of the evening much)
Country now polarised completely - no chance of any sort of leave deal. I think it's down to no deal v remain - high stakes game now.
There's always the Neverexit option where the political system is indefinitely paralysed and we remain in the EU with extension after extension.
I think we could keep stringing this along for the next ten years if we can find leaders with the right level of incompetence.
🤪
Vote for me. I can at least fake incompetence quite convincingly.
Citation required
I refer you to this thread
So for the few years, remainers have been telling us how those that voted leave did not understand what they were voting for...too thick, too racist, too working class etc - I’d happily bet that a lot of remainers (at the time of the referendum) also didn’t really understand exactly what they were voting for.
But now after the wall to wall debates, most people understand the implications- so surely we should have seen a massive swing towards pro-remain parties - so remainers, what happened, how have you managed not to enlighten leavers?
For me it just goes to show that the original referendum vote was probably about right. As in it’s very close and could go either way on any given day.
And I don’t know what was so funny about Yaxley-Lennon’s result, tens of thousands of people voted for him FFS.
Even though he picked the area in which he would have the most support and has had national news coverage, he still lost his deposit.
I find it worrying how geographically spread brexit party success was. Although remain parties overall did well it looks like there's a pretty unified chunk of the country wanting brexit 🙁
Also... If we want to remain turnout needs to improve! For all the talk of significant numbers of people changing their minds etc sod all of them actually bothered to vote.
voting for.
But now after the wall to wall debates, most people understand the implications- so surely we should have seen a massive swing towards pro-remain parties – so remainers, what happened, how have you managed not to enlighten leavers?
Without taking into account remainers and leavers who voted labour and conservative, remain look stronger than leave now.
Percentage wise, the lib Dems and the Greens polled higher than the Brexit party if viewed as a remain bloc.
As others have said, what has happened is that the electorate has totally polarised.
I stand by my previous assertion that we need a no deal and it's consequences to snap people out of this stupidity.
those that voted leave did not understand what they were voting for
> checks Brexit Party manifesto <
> reads detailed critiques of their policies <
Hmm…
there’s a pretty unified chunk of the country wanting brexit
Yup, a very sizeable minority.
As in it’s very close and could go either way on any given day.
Agreed. I still think another referendum is likely to result in a Leave vote. But, whoever is in power will have to present, frame and justify their vision of Brexit to win that vote. That process is essential to democracy.
I wasn’t just trying to be an arse towards remainers with my last post - but just simply that if you ran the referendum again it would still be very close - even after all the debates
so remainers, what happened, how have you managed not to enlighten leavers?
Plenty of academic papers on how even when confronted with apparently compelling evidence, folk intelligent or otherwise don’t change their minds much.
The 10% swing to remain is quite impressive.
I do wonder what would happen if someone as determined as Farage had started a pure Remain party and named it thus, instead of the doomed, confused and shoddily put together Tingers.
People go for polarity.
Agreed. I still think another referendum is likely to result in a Leave vote. But, whoever is in power will have to present, frame and justify their vision of Brexit to win that vote. That process is essential to democracy
Yep.
But, whoever is in power will have to present, frame and justify their vision of Brexit to win that vote.
YES^
I’m hoping that eventually we’ll realise that not all leavers are racist thicko’s and not all remainers are left wing elitists
Sadly I have to admit two things, first I think Farage is correct in that if there's no Brexit come the net GE they will end up in goverment, there are too many folk that seem disillusioned and think "sod it, I'm not voting for any of them" and others like the young lads here at work who just say "I dunno what they're on about" "it makes bugger all difference" and therefore the minority of motivated leavers win.
The other is that we here in Scotland are better off out of it! #indyref2 please! I never thought I'd ever be saying that!!
Re turnout, from the interviews with the general public *shudders* a lot of them seemed to be of the opinion that ‘well were leaving, so why bother voting’. I expect that pleases NF as much as the votes he got.
The main parties should be worrying about themselves with the mess they created.
Indeed, but which way does each main party lurch to limit their loses now?
The obvious choice is for the Cons to go hard right/hard Brexit under a new leader and try to steal back their BP/UKIP voters...
Which of course leaves Labour a choice between sticking with the current indecisive middle ground position that now almost seems calculated to piss off the largest number of voters possible, or else join the push for a 2nd ref, knowing that it's very much seen as a remainer's campaign (because it kind of is). Thus putting them firmly against the outcome of the 2016 ref in the minds of many people...
But at least they'd have something to differentiate them from the Tories, and it could perhaps align with those that voted LD/Green/CHUK on Thursday, who appear to be proportionally about the same size of voting block as the Brexiteers. If they don't then I reckon Boris (come on we know its going to be Boris) has the next GE sewn up simply by following the ERG script.
The remain vs leave is not just party 1 vs party 2 is it though?
Adding together the remain/pro-European Lib Dem, Greens and SNP means they have 'won' over the brexshit party and few conservatives and labour.
So this is actually a vote to remain.
Which would be fine if we didn't have FFTP 🙁
No party needs to lurch to limit their losses they just need to put out "leave" message and be done with it now.
The surge of Farage has proved if you jump on his bandwagon your going to get a chunk of vote.
Adding together the remain/pro-European Lib Dem, Greens and SNP means they have ‘won’ over the brexshit party and few conservatives and labour.
Rubbish , you can't just go adding up the votes of lots of other party's to make up the numbers 😂🤣🤣🤣🤣
Sadly I have to admit two things, first I think Farage is correct in that if there’s no Brexit come the net GE they will end up in goverment
Expect brexit party MPs a plenty.
Doing some indendent calcs, and here are my numbers- critique my arithmetic. I've used this YouGov data as the split, where we had:
Lab Leave at 35%
Con Leave at 61%
For LD, I've assumed 100% remain now, as the manifesto went all-out on that unequivocally.
Turnout of: 16,375,149
Leave
5,244,893 (BP)
828324.35 (Lab at 35%)
921633.14 (Con at 61%)
549,149 UKIP
7,543,999 TOTAL
Remain
3,366,673 LD
1538316.65 (Lab at 65%)
2,010,328 Green
589240.86 (Con at 61%)
571,716 CHUK
590,947 SNP
163,928 PC
8,831,150 TOTAL
54% remain, 46% leave? No idea what the abstainers/non-voters wanted, of course- no real data.
54% remain, 46% leave?
Pretty much what I would estimate the result of a 2nd ref would be, maybe closer to 52/48 from 1-2 millions swings from the now dead brexiters and remain new voters. People who voted in both won't have changed their minds much as said.
54% remain, 46% leave? No idea what the abstainers/non-voters wanted, of course- no real data.
Totally ridiculous conclusion to come to. You're ignoring what's staring you in the face, which is that a party which didn't exist 6 weeks ago and who's single policy is a no deal brexit, won the election. This was a re-run of the referendum, and I'm afraid leave won again. A second referendum won't change that. Get ready for no deal, it's happening.