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but the Tories will still win
I very much doubt this. I actually think this is one of those watershed political moments like '79 and '97. The general public don't follow politics in any detail, and will make a simple judgement that the tories have completely failed in the single thing they were supposed to do. Not only have they failed, but they've done so in the most incompetent, self interested, and hubristic fashion. They're finished.
If there’s a ge, the minority parties will see a resurgence, remainers will leave both the Tories and Labour in their droves, but the Tories will still win, or at least will take the most seats.
It’s not a solution.
Under normal circumstances the Tories would not stand a chance in any upcoming general election, but indeed, these are not normal circumstances.
I very much doubt this. I actually think this is one of those watershed political moments like ’79 and ’97. The general public don’t follow politics in any detail, and will make a simple judgement that the tories have completely failed in the single thing they were supposed to do. Not only have they failed, but they’ve done so in the most incompetent, self interested, and hubristic fashion. They’re finished.
I'm from a hardcore labour constituency and the general feeling I get from local Facebook groups is very anti-Corbyn. Seemingly many people have the belief he is trying to sabotage Brexit. I don't want to vote for him because I'm unwilling to vote for anyone who supports Brexit. And then there's the multitude of people who wouldn't vote for him before any of this even happened.
There is not one party in the UK right now that anyone wants to vote for.
Well, Labour stand on the brink, whichever way you look at it. If they do push for, and are able to deliver, a second ref, I think a lot of remainers will look favourably on them subsequently, whatever the outcome, but if they don't, they'll get wiped out.
At a GE, the Tories could include a manifesto pledge to kick toddlers in the face and most of England would still vote them in, so the idea that their handling of Brexit would see them voted out is a pipedream.
Best case scenario here - majority of MPs across Labour and Tories would prefer to revoke A50 but would never publicly say so. Both recognise being the party to come out and attempt to force that would be suicidal. If they attempt to do it jointly, the electoral damage will be mutual but not terminal to either, as where are voters going to go? Headbangers can headbang all they like but they're a minority and a stitch up like this is what can happen to a minority. I reckon that's what's going to happen. If not explicitly revoked, then at least kicked into grass long enough it wouldn't be found until it's unrecognisable.
Fingers crossed.
The Guardian - "Conservatives: May warned Brexit pact with Corbyn could tear party apart"
Again, fingers crossed.
Well, Labour stand on the brink, whichever way you look at it. If they do push for, and are able to deliver, a second ref, I think a lot of remainers will look favourably on them subsequently, whatever the outcome, but if they don’t, they’ll get wiped out.
Or the complete opposite! This thread is hardly representative of a lot of the "great British public's" view.
and the general feeling I get from local Facebook groups is very anti-Corbyn
Facebook groups are hardly representative. They're even worse than this place! It's true that Corbyn is seen negatively by many, which is hardly surprising given the media onslaught against him. As with the last election though, the requirement to give him balanced airtime will show people he's not the ogre the Daily Mail and Binners make him out to be. Campaigning is probably the only thing he's actually good at, and working class voters will need very little persuasion to back him.
Anyone following BREXIT PROTEST & DIRECT ACTION GROUP UK on Facebook?
They're currently trying to organise protests & what not (they were responsible for the recent go-slows on the motorways)
It's quite funny, they are currently imploding as Brexit hasn't been delivered.
Interesting comments here:
https://www.ft.com/content/6a14385a-5536-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1?list=opinion
Same as when she says “let’s sit down and talk” she means “and then you can agree with everything I say”
This x100. I think she just wants to share her shit sandwich as widely as possible. If he engages, he gets a bite of the brexit betrayal blame, if he doesn't, she calls an election and the Tories focus on their legendary can-do attitude vs obstructionism from Labour.
Doesn't stand up to that much scrutiny, but that appears to be the desperate political flavour of the moment.
Interesting comments here:
Well they would be if we could read them. What's the point in posting links to paywalled sites?
Numbers pro and against added up and center group divided by 2.
I think that's a fairly simplistic reading of things, all it shows is that there's a solid block for and against(against being much larger at the minute), all the ones in the middle are the potential floating voters, so the ones that can be fought for, so interesting from that perspective. Particularly when you look at it from an age perspective(support against is clearly going to take a serious hit over the next 10/20 years.).
Also, you may ask why there wasn’t a straightforward question on “how would you vote in a new referendum today?”.
It wasn’t even asked, which is strange? (same with wings latest polling).
It's obviously not the information they are looking for, a straight binary yes or no question doesn't tell an awful lot about how you should strategise.
What the survey probably shows most revealingly(reading beyond the data), is that the independistas are playing/should play(I'm not completely sold on that) a long game, and the unionistas are just fighting fire.
(I'm not evening going to comment on "wings", the guy is a bam.)
Anyhow, this is probably for another thread, as I mentioned, ideas that Scotland is an EU lifeboat in the short term are hopeful, at best.
ElShalimo
Member
Interesting comments here:
> https://www.ft.com/content/6a14385a-5536-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1?list=opinion
I often wonder if people just put up paywall Financial Times links to say, hey, I read the FT, look at me! 😆
Corbyn will be quickly trying to work out what red line May still won't cross, so he can ask for that.
It’s true that Corbyn is seen negatively by many, which is hardly surprising given the media onslaught against him. As with the last election though, the requirement to give him balanced airtime will show people he’s not the ogre the Daily Mail and Binners make him out to be.
That and actually being a bit rubbish. Sorry the benefit of the doubt has been given. Add in the baggage that ain't going away he has enough who won't vote for him so they need to make a choice.
I often wonder if people just put up paywall Financial Times links to say, hey, I read the FT, look at me!
Said it a few times, register and you get a number of free articles per month. It's free and easy.
Campaigning is probably the only thing he’s actually good at,
Well that's damning with faint praise.
Latest You Gov poll now has a slim majority in favour of no deal.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/brexit/survey-results
^^^ common sense left this country some time ago
Thats insane!
But its where we are. The amount of ERG nutters you see on the news who you hear saying 'we should just leave on WTO rules' as if they actually have the remotest clue what they actually are. And again we're being let down by the media who just let it pass when interviewing these idiots, instead of saying "go on then smartarse... what are WTO rules? What are the import tariffs on food then? Or Cars? Or washing up liquid? Or fuel? Or hamsters? Go on, fill us in with your extensive knowledge of the subject...."
FFS... Nadine Dorrris didn't even know what a customs union was the other week! She had to have it explained to her. I doubt she's got much grip on the details of WTO rules, yet there she is on the news saying 'we should just leave on WTO rules'
We're being led down this path by ignorant fools, because they're just allowed to keep spouting this gibberish, completely unchallenged
Latest You Gov poll now has a slim majority in favour of no deal.
What, the brexit options results from 25th march that show 42% preferring revocation? With 23% supporting no deal. Funny definition of "majority"
Ah found it. The question was what the UK should do if there's no deal by 12th AND an extension is refused. The prior question related to just no agreed deal by 12th and while no deal got the most support in that there was more combined support for some action to avoid no deal. Take away the extension and you split that support. So in one carefully constructed question there is a slim majority of support for no deal, but in general there is more support for avoiding it. Isn't selective quoting great.
What, the brexit options results from 25th march that show 42% preferring revocation? With 23% supporting no deal. Funny definition of “majority”
I think if it had been read properly it shows a small majority for leave - when the options are added up.
With 23% supporting no deal. Funny definition of “majority”
That’s not too dissimilar to the percentage of the population who voted for brexit in the first place
Latest You Gov poll now has a slim majority in favour of no deal.
I'm more interested in the bookies odds and the euro-pound exchange rate. How did that rate change yesterday?
There will be no no deal. I've thought it for ages, and yesterday confirmed it. At the moment, I'm probably 66-33 against any leaving at all.
That’s not too dissimilar to the percentage of the population who voted for brexit in the first place
That was the analysis yesterday when the numbers came out, the true leavers are geting more entrenched, they think they are 50% of the population but they are really closer to 35%
Hmmm - recent parliamentary activity has shown us that supporters of one strand of leave will not support another strand, so simply adding up the leave segments in that poll is questionable. Though if you do that it's interesting that it's not consistent with longer term polling on the referendum question eg.
seosamh
ideas that Scotland is an EU lifeboat in the short term are hopeful, at best
Yup, thats what I was getting at. Its a distraction and neither likely or useful in the immediate situation.
Even Nicola tweeted this yesterday (for about a minute)
"The Tories’ obsession with independence is becoming quite ridiculous"
from HERE.
I hope we're going to end up with a long extension, past the EU elections, and a peoples vote.
If we do, then its because the EU is trying to help us above and beyond any help we would offer them if the situation was reversed.
Something has to change in politics. Is direct rule from Brussels an option?
I think the numbers posted 20hr ago have changed again to favour Brexit No Deal.
YouGov - What might help on Brexit
Saw my folks at the weekend and after explaining a few truths my leave voting step dad said " it's best if we have another vote and remain."
It's taken 3 years but we got there.
There will be no no deal. I’ve thought it for ages, and yesterday confirmed it.
I've been convinced of this for months. Because our politicians would have to put their self-interest and party loyalies aside to achieve any other alternative. And they've shown that they have consistently been unprepared to do this, no matter how high the stakes
They keep saying that a majority of MPs 'don't want' no deal. But at every opportunity they fail to take the action neccessary to stop it happeninng
Everything has been heading for No Deal. Its obvious that they're resigned to this in Brussels now. I think that May knows it too, and hence the present moves are to spread the blame when the calamity becomes reality next week.
I suspect in two weeks time we'll be looking at this present shambles as a golden age of stability. We have been utterly failed by our political class, and we're about to find out just to what extent. I genuinelly fear for where we're going as a country. Its truly depressing
To Chewkw's Point
If Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th,
what do you think should happen?
Britain should leave the European Union without a
deal 40
Britain should seek a further extension 11
Britain should withdraw our application to leave and
remain in the EU 36
Don't know 13
Should we no deal @40 Should we Extend or Revoke 47%
Would you support or oppose MPs forming a
national government, with a cabinet made up of
MPs of all the main parties, to deal with the
issue of Brexit?
Support 45
Oppose 22
Don't know 33
Sample size is also weighted towards Leave, and the question is very specific, not on what outcome do you want but what if this occurs.
Having once fallen down that particular rabbit hole, I caution anyone against trying to reason with a certain forum poster.
A thoroughly depressing but accurate article of how ridiculous we look, from the New York Times
The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad
The problem with holding out for a perfect Brexit plan is that you can’t fix stupid.
Having once fallen down that particular rabbit hole, I caution anyone against trying to reason with a certain forum poster.
Aye. It's like fighting an ugly bastard, he's nothing to lose.
From a country that voted in Trump as president....
Exactly. They've a total buffoon in charge. We've got 650 of them
kerley
Member
From a country that voted in Trump as president….
It's very much worthwhile reading how we are viewed from abroad, the Australians in particular are hard hitting and quick to point out our stupidity 😉
We’ve got 650 of them
we voted for them
I saw my parents at the weekend and they are so firmly entrenched in no deal it’s rediculous. I even got “You lost, get over it!” shouted at me by my mother.
They are both vehemently anti-EU and are happy to bury the country as long as they escape. They are convinced that no deal was what was being sold by the leave campaign.
It’s very much worthwhile reading how we are viewed from abroad, the Australians in particular are hard hitting and quick to point out our stupidity
I don't need to know how we are viewed from abroad, I can see it for myself. I can also see most other countries having the same problem if a similar referendum was held on a divisive topic with no easy solution to what may get voted for.
Do you really think France, Spain, Germany etc,. would have had a great time implementing Frexit, Spexit, Grexit and if they had a referendum the result may be as stupid as ours.
Sample size is also weighted towards Leave, and the question is very specific, not on what outcome do you want but what if this occurs.
Yes, you are right about the question of "what if ..."
But do you foresee that in 11 days there will be a clear answer?
I don't think so because based on all the Parliamentary disagreements so far the probability of the "what if ...", to me, is inevitably high don't you think so?
🤔
However only the UK was stupid enough to actually hold one
However only the UK was stupid enough to actually hold one
On the contrary, it demonstrates that however stupid an idea it is, if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one. Democracy in action? Or would you prefer dictatorship? We need more democracy not less.
The problem is not that we had a referendum, but that it was poorly executed, not sufficiently and accurately explained to the public so they could make an informed choice, and then the result not enacted in a transparent and competent fashion.
we voted for them
I didn't vote for any of them.
There are 100+ MPs that I really rate, but none of them are there as a result of my vote, and most UK voters can say the exact same thing.
the funniest thing about those that keep saying we can leave with no deal & then just get an FTA withe the EU after is .........
https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1113092951553572870
On the contrary, it demonstrates that however stupid an idea it is, if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one. Democracy in action? Or would you prefer dictatorship? We need more democracy not less.
What like a vote to review the final deal and accept if we still want to leave 😉