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If it comes down to no deal or no Brexit, what proportion of likely Tory voters, Tory members and Tory MPs would back no Brexit?
I think that is where the question was but try and get over Brexit being a tory idea, plenty of people can see just how bad a no brexit deal will be - many business people are tories.
Final thoughts for the night
Now we will really see what Corbyn is made of. Will he be able to do the right thing here ie second ref? If not he is finished as labour leader. He will not be able to carry his party to any sort of brexit without this
Is May serious? She will need to change her red lines and / or agree a second ref. Or is this just an attempt to shift the blame?
One thing for sure - there will be resignations from the cabinet I bet but by doing this she has probably stopped more mps resigning the tory whip
So the current Tory narrative is that Brexit, that old Tory popularity contest gifted to the nation by the pig's head pleasurer, is now all Labour's fault!!
Fectards
This just gets more and more absurd.. Can we post the cat meme yet, the one where it's got a pancake on its head?
Leadsome is overdue a hoof in the arse.
Is May serious? She will need to change her red lines and / or agree a second ref. Or is this just an attempt to shift the blame?
She has no choice but to do one of these.
As a saying goes make sure you have every bodies fingerprints on the knife
Looks like May has lost the ERG in an it's finally over, finally I mean finally kind of way, or they have lost her.
As for what Corbyn is made of as I said before Starmer and Watson need to be with him all the way, possibly with Ian Blackford right behind him reminding him what is going to happen.
TJ - corbyn doesn't have a clue about the right thing to do. That's a big concern but an even bigger one is the influence Milne has over him.
Milne's influence far outweighs Starmer and Watson combined.
May is attempting to get more people into the boat with her; craven, pathetic, unprincipled, clueless. As is corbyn.
As a saying goes make sure you have every bodies fingerprints on the knife
This is exactly why corbyn should only pay lip service to may. It's May's problem. He can't be stupid enough to have a deal with her, can he?
Nothing would supprise me at this point.
So, would I be correct in saying this whole situation pretty much dilutes any power the DUP had?.
At the moment the DUP are trying to work out what they have got away with
Bypasses them and the ERG completely
I think it would be fine for Corbyn to engage - but a second referendum must be the price for any deal or else he loses his party as she has lost hers
Ah… the dreamers. Hope it pans out in the way you'd like. Personally, I expect that if Corbyn does get his chance to shape Brexit, in return he'll whip for it without any referendum being in the offing. His MPs may surprise him if that happens, and get behind the Kyle&Wilson amendment when it is put again… and many more Tory MPs may then see very little reason not to go with them just to honour a weakened Tory whip.
The cross party negotiations being another (deliberate) waste of time (or even a trap), seems more plausible to me.
Yeh I think it's safe to say the DUP will vote against anything that treats NI differently from the UK.
They've alluded to that often and voted accordingly.
I bet May rues the day she bunged them a billion in a brown envelope from the magic money tree.
So are we sure that Kelvin thinks that it's No Deal or nothing, not sure it's clear
No, I don't think that.
My last post literally discusses two other possible outcomes… the WA being passed with Corbyn reshaping the PD… and the same but with Parliament amending to include a referendum on that vs Remain.
I wouldn't bet on either of those though. A long delay and a general election still the most likely… can kicking without a referendum… sadly.
Literally whichever way this thing goes, there are going to be huge numbers of people very unhappy with the outcome. With most things there's always someone who's unhappy, but in this instance they've hit the jackpot in the "how many people can we piss of" competition.
Now we will really see what Corbyn is made of. Will he be able to do the right thing here ie second ref?
Labour party policy as you well know prioritises a general election. Given the inability of parliament to reach a decision that should still be the priority. Corbyn should demand an election as the price of labour agreement on a customs union. If not that then a 2nd referendum is the secondary option.
On a point of order could I also point out that May's climbdown is a massive vindication of labour party policy. Who would ever have thought that she would risk splitting her party asunder in order to seek consensus with Jeremy Corbyn? It's astonishing quite frankly, and if it works out and achieves a deal after everything that's happened then she may yet find some redemption.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1113013872351473664
Is like right confused!!
Labour party policy as you well know prioritises a general election. Given the inability of parliament to reach a decision that should still be the priority. Corbyn should demand an election as the price of labour agreement on a customs union. If not that then a 2nd referendum is the secondary option.
Only if you see life as a series of stationary points to make decisions by, who want a ****ing brexit? Haw many people want any kind of flavour of brexit- and yes I want stats!! So who wants a Labour Brexit?
On a point of order could I also point out that May’s climbdown is a massive
Climbdown, she has had so many opportunities to engage when she knew her deal was dead but ignored them
Who would ever have thought that she would risk splitting her party asunder in order to seek consensus with Jeremy Corbyn?
Her party has been split for a long time. Mark Frenchie is claiming a coup occured last night despite voting against her on every vote
It’s astonishing quite frankly, and if it works out and achieves a deal after everything that’s happened then she may yet find some redemption.
WTF have you been smoking?
If it works out a leave she has pissed of a majority of people by current polls.
Literally whichever way this thing goes, there are going to be huge numbers of people very unhappy with the outcome.
This is unarguably a given.
So let's take the least financially damaging option. Revoke article 50.
mickmcd
Member
when maybot says national unity does she effectively mean half of you need to shut up and get on board…
Of course. Same as when she says "let's sit down and talk" she means "and then you can agree with everything I say" and when she says "we need to have a dialogue with everyone" it means "but I'll only listen to my own party's headbangers"
This is unarguably a given.
So let’s take the least financially damaging option. Revoke article 50.
Yep, that is what I would have done. Problem is there is no majority for it as they have to honour the will of the people (even though that will has changed but we can't check that as we wouldn't be honouring the original will of the people)
I’m assuming Labour will back a deal that Corbyn has made but I’m sure whatever he has touched will be blocked by the tories.
However he could go for his preferred hard brexit and say it was all mays fault.
Problem is there is no majority for it
As I said earlier, the problem is that there is no majority for anything. We've painted ourselves into a corner and the last month's series of meetings has been May going "does anyone have any more paint?"
tj & seosamh,
I wasn't around to follow up my 60/40 figure, but heres the source of the result from progress scotland polling.
Data was accidentally published on the polling site and then removed (for fairly obvious reasons).
Numbers pro and against added up and center group divided by 2.
As you said, they've been positively publishing the results from this poll on whether people think there will be another referendum in Scotland, but from these results I don't think they can say that people want it.
Also, you may ask why there wasn't a straightforward question on "how would you vote in a new referendum today?".
It wasn't even asked, which is strange? (same with wings latest polling).
Anyway, this is just a side note compared with the ongoing bit of a mess in London.
dazh,
May’s climbdown is a massive vindication of labour party policy
Stop saying things like that, I nearly ingested my own tongue.
I admire your indefatigable fanboy attitude, but the magic grandad could probably do worse than to have a chat with Nick Clegg before he wanders in to dealing with the tories.
Have any Labour front benchers mentioned a referendum being part of the negotiations with May yet? Radio interviews this morning all seem to be about shutting that down. Unsurprisingly.
I think the one thing that we can be certain that labour won't push for, its a second referendum. As Barry Gardiner stated last week 'we are not a remain party', and that extends to stopping anything that would facilitate the chance of remain. The fact that the membership, MP's and majority of voters say they are indeed a remain party is by the by.
Personally I can't think of anything less likely to produce progress than the Maybot and Magic Grandad trying to agree a position. Can you think of two more tribal and obstinate people? This is just a window dressing exercise to try and aportion blame for next weeks inevitable no deal crash out
What I'd like to see is Corbyn pulling a Keyser soze like stitch up move on the Tories and brexiters alike mummifying them in their own hypocrisies and lies and a very public meltdown leading to an immediate retraction of article 50 and the implosion of the Tory party. And an exacting enquiry that spares noone and shows no mercy
But these are remainer unicorns
If instead he took his cues from Walter White then perhaps we d see him rigging an M60 on top of a pick up truck and parking it outside the next ERG meeting? I'd take that. Although he'd have to direct the bullet spray low to make sure he gets Francois
I think that PMQ's today will show us how much both 'leaders' are embracing an air of compromise. My expectations are very, very low.
Any progress will rely on pragmatism, courage and imagination. Those two possess none of those qualities
Let us never forget that this entire process, and each step within, is entirety self-inflicted. No requirement for any of it.
If it's a £ 1 billion for 10 DUP votes and they still don't back your deal then what's the going rate for 200 + Labour votes?
On a second referendum, Ms Long-Bailey risked angering many Labour MPs by arguing the party's support for it in the latest "indicative votes" was "just to move matters ahead".
"The People's Vote didn't satisfy all elements of our conference policy, but we wanted to have that on the table so members could have the opportunity to look at that if they wanted to," she said.
Having read through the news this morning, it's clear that both the PM and cabinet agree that crashing out without a deal on the 12th April will be a disaster.
The EU have stated that an extension to Article 50 (that we enacted, with no plan in place for resolution) will only be considered in exceptional circumstances; e.g. a General Election or a People's Vote. I am also reading that the EU want to make participation in the upcoming MEP elections on the 23rd May so that we can head to the polls and vote for our unelected EU bureaucrat of choice.
The ERG aren't budging from their position of no deal, several cabinet members (tellingly - Truss, Williamson, Hunt, Javid etc) have switched position from backing Remain to no deal in the light of recent high profile deselections of Grieve and Boles, which seems to have been instigated by vocal ex-UKIPers. The ERG and whoever is funding them is keen for the cliff edge option that horrifies most centrist one-nation Conservatives so speculation is mounting that the Conservative Party is heading for a schism.
It's clear that we have completely snookered ourselves.
And to follow on, if the Tory Party permanently splits and renders itself unelectable for the next generation and a half then I will be embarking on a colossal piss up to celebrate.
May and the Tories might not have shown much gumption when dealing with the EU but they are past masters at shafting their own domestic rivals.Talks will collapse,Labour will be blamed for sabotaging Brexit and in many voters eyes they will both be seen as bad as each other which isn't a bad position for the Tories to be in after the fiasco of the last two years.
Conservative Party is heading for a schism
Surely the right-wing / ERG faction won't split off as they're nothing without the Conservative party brand? So they'd have to be booted out - is that possible?
Nearing the end game now I think. May was the first casualty, now her party is on the brink of collapse and the ERG nutters staring defeat in the face. All we need now is an election and it will be game, set and match. I very much doubt Corbyn will give May anything that reduces the chance of a new election. The idea of the tories carrying on in govt after the chaos they have created is plainly untenable. Once the tories are gone other parties can then get on with sorting out brexit. Good riddance to them.
And to follow on, if the Tory Party permanently splits and renders itself unelectable for the next generation and a half then I will be embarking on a colossal piss up to celebrate.
And we have found the benefit of Brexit at last.
And to follow on, if the Tory Party permanently splits and renders itself unelectable for the next generation and a half then I will be embarking on a colossal piss up to celebrate.
I will be joining you.
Nearing the end game now I think. May was the first casualty, now her party is on the brink of collapse and the ERG nutters staring defeat in the face. All we need now is an election and it will be game, set and match. I very much doubt Corbyn will give May anything that reduces the chance of a new election. The idea of the tories carrying on in govt after the chaos they have created is plainly untenable. Once the tories are gone other parties can then get on with sorting out brexit. Good riddance to them.
I hope so, but May doesn't given without a fight. Remember how the T1000 just wont die?
A lot of the journos are buggers on Twitter - especially Preston's rumour mill.
Did no one watch Laura Koenigsegg's one hour Brexit special? T'was okay from a production point of view but was very much about her career I reckon than real issues.
Some revealing over the shoulder stuff. The bit where she was sat with BJ on the bench looked like a Richard Curtis scene.
If there's a ge, the minority parties will see a resurgence, remainers will leave both the Tories and Labour in their droves, but the Tories will still win, or at least will take the most seats.
It's not a solution.
Cougar
We’ve painted ourselves into a corner and the last month’s series of meetings has been May going “does anyone have any more paint?”
This line deserves more recognition. Chapeau!
The idea of the tories carrying on in govt after the chaos they have created is plainly untenable. Once the tories are gone other parties can then get on with sorting out brexit. Good riddance to them.
You know you're living in a country where 52% voted for the most monumentally stupid act of national self-hard the world has ever witnessed, right?
And there is only one thing that the Tory's have proved more than anything over the last 3 years: they will quite happily sacrifice absolutely everything, including the nations economy, to cling on to power
I'd very much love you to be right, but unfortunately I think its wiishful thinking. Whats far more likely IMHO is they find some way to unseat her, and the senile, racist old giffers of the Tory membership install an ERG headbanger at the helm instead, who will lead us to a Hard Brexit armageddon
At every stage of this shitshow, you just think of the worse case scenario and within a week you're there.
what party would remainers vote for in enough numbers to count? I'm not sure who'd I go with in a GE (p.s. not conservative). Except I would look very carefully at the voting record of the current MP as a guide. Both labour and Conservatives have MP's that don't fit well in the defined party categories.