If it is a bad deal just walk away. Simple.
in this case just 'walking away' = remaining
if youre buying a car & its too much you just dont buy the car, 'no deal' is like walking away but youve already set fire to your old car!
What isn’t “quite true” @SamB?
That the Cherry amendment was the "best case" amendment. However - I think I misread you! I thought you meant "Had the best chance of passing"...
Reading it back though I think you meant "narrow pass" is the best case for anything? If you did, then I agree with you 👍
chewkw,
Yup, should'a stuck with my initial impulse.
TTFN 🙂
Eat the pudding from their website - I cannot find the figure in their polling. Perhaps its buried as bad news but everything they are posting on the polling suggests otherwise> Do you have a link?
Scotland will become an independent country
63% Agree / 37% Disagree.
There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two years
Likely: 48% / Unlikely: 44%
There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years
Likely: 59% / Unlikely: 32%
There should be another referendum on Scottish independence
61% Agree / 39% Disagree
in this case just ‘walking away’ = remaining
Crikey, sound rather desperate that. 😮
if youre buying a car & its too much you just dont buy the car, ‘no deal’ is like walking away but youve already set fire to your old car!
🤣 I am sure there are many more cars to choose from with the wad of cash you have. Remember, UK is not short of a penny or two.
@SamB, I just meant that, yesterday, several amendments were close to passing, and that the Cherry amendment could also have been in that position if Labour hadn't whipped to abstain… meaning that it would have stayed a live issue… I fear yesterday killed it. Why the Labour leadership would want to help May by killing it… well…
@chewkw, which continent will the UK be "buying" (FFS) a new relationship with that is as useful and advantageous as our current relationship with the one we are on and surrounded by?
WTO needs a hard border and controls in NI, the Good Friday Agreement precludes this
I didn't think this was technically true was it (at least according to a BBC news article I read a few weeks ago...)? The GFA specifically mentions removing the military presence from the border but doesn't actually mention anything about a customs border (as no one thought at the time the UK may leave the EU). So possibly against the spirit of the agreement and it might be enough to cause a divide that would end up destroying the agreement but not actually specifically precluded by the agreement.
UK is not short of a penny or two
There are individuals and companies that are rolling in it but I thought UK PLC was in hock for quite a large amount. Clock
Am i getting my apples and PSNCRs mixed up?
If it is a bad deal just walk away. Simple.
You are Iain Duncan Smith and I claim my Universal Credit 5 week delay in payment
Oh ffs we did this months ago! WTO needs a hard border and controls in NI, the Good Friday Agreement precludes this. Square that circle.
And a50 should not have been triggered until a solution for the border had been found.So that would be never then. Only way is to maintain regulatory and customs alignment with RoI, inc. FoM
well there you go, if they had started planning this all out these problems could have been highlighted and either solutions found or it made apparent that there were none - and then the options left would have been down to EEA or revoke or remain - instead of just muddling along and not making the options clear and getting to the state we are in, just as unclear as before.
Yup GFA said UK gov has to remobve security infrastructure, also that people must be able to go about their lives unimpeded between the 2 regions, which is kind of arguable whether customs checks etc could stop that.
Its the contravention of the spirit of the agreement that is the bigge problem
well there you go, if they had started planning this all out these problems could have been highlighted and either solutions found or it made apparent that there were none – and then the options left would have been down to EEA or revoke or remain – instead of just muddling along and not making the options clear and getting to the state we are in, just as unclear as before.
It has been made apparent, many, many times
but the brexiteers keep ignoring this & pushing their bonkers 2.0 malthouse unicorn infinity brady bollox,
you seem to be missing the point that the brexiteers are just dont care about reality
You are Iain Duncan Smith and I claim my Universal Credit 5 week delay in payment
Keep up binners you can have an interest free advance nowadays...repayable of course but at least it frees up a space at the food bank for someone else 😉
I say that the Brexiteer ultras can have there beloved No Deal next week, on one condition....
They personally have to go and install the border surveillance equipment themselves in South Armagh
Rees Mogg can hold the ladder for IDS, while Boris looks out for snipers.
Mark Francois might come in handy. He was in the TA you know? And apparently won the second world war, single-handed. So I'm sure a few provo death squads wouldn't cause him much trouble 😀
@chewkw, which continent will the UK be “buying” (FFS) a new relationship with that is as useful and advantageous as our current relationship with the one we are on and surrounded by?
SE Asia, Asia, Africa, South America and Middle East etc will trade with UK so long as UK do not try to impose their views on them.
There are individuals and companies that are rolling in it but I thought UK PLC was in hock for quite a large amount. Clock
There are others on your Clock list that have bigger debts than UK.
You are Iain Duncan Smith and I claim my Universal Credit 5 week delay in payment
🤣 I think he has more hairs than me.
On the border on the island of ireland - it could be left as an open border in most ways with zero tarriffs or checks - but then under WTO rules we would have to give that same right to every country and phytosanitory checks and the like still need to be done. Imagine all those low duty fags coming into the UK via that back door we have left open tho etc etc. To say nothing of all those EU immigrants crossing the border. Might even be a few enterprising brown folk as well ;-)_
Question for remainers: if we leave without a deal, and you could (this is hypothetical obvs) would you move to an EU country?
"If we could" TBH the only reason we haven't moved to France already is that whilst we can speak enough French to order food and shop, we're no way fluent enough to be able to work in our current jobs as Specialist Nurse and IT Consultant.
TBH IT sales are 2 a penny, but, according to the recruitment consultants anyway we'd qualify for working visas for most English speaking nations, despite being over-30.
we’re no way fluent enough to be able to work in our current jobs as Specialist Nurse and IT Consultant
Surely 'turn it off, then turn it back on again' is a universal language? 😉
There are others on your Clock list that have bigger debts than UK.
How, in any practical sense, does that help the average UK bod?
Unless it's like the hug only Horlicks can give.
Surely ‘turn it off, then turn it back on again’ is a universal language?
That's Techie speak.
The consultant version is
"Hi, my computer is playing up, can you help?"
"Sure, how much do you want to spend?"
tjagain
Member
Eat the pudding from their website – I cannot find the figure in their polling. Perhaps its buried as bad news but everything they are posting on the polling suggests otherwise> Do you have a link?
Scotland will become an independent country
63% Agree / 37% Disagree. - mibbeThere will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two years
Likely: 48% / Unlikely: 44% - mibbe, but unlikely in the short term unless the scottish gov take a unilateral approachThere will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years
Likely: 59% / Unlikely: 32% - unlikelyThere should be another referendum on Scottish independence
61% Agree / 39% Disagree - agree
None of those question has anything to do with voting intentions.
It's still sitting about 45/55% +/-3%. It's still an absolute gamble to go for independence. Plus brexit will just make the UK gov more entrenched, so the won't allow it. So it's over to sturgeon to pull some kinda magic rabbit out the hat if it's going to happening in the next 10 years.
I suspect people thinking Scotland will be an EU life raft in the short term will be disappointed.
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So, to recap we have Mark Francois bleating on about "the will of the people", seemingly unaware as to the whole point of a parliamentary democracy.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is sharing far-right AfD videos on twitter.
The EU is unlikely to grant a long extension to Article 50 unless we have a viable, workable plan which could include a GE (which based on current polling data would result in a hung parliament), or a People's Vote (which will require time to implement, putting us in EU elections territory in May).
Meanwhile, my MP has refused to guarantee that my stepson will have uninterrupted access to insulin in event of No-Deal. If he goes without insulin for a few days, he'll die.
So yes, emotions are running fairly high right now.
seosamh77
I agree - but I couldn't find on that website the 60/40 against eat the pudding quoted and looking into those figures I did think has been a bit of collating to get the answers they want.
Got a link to the numbers you give? Genuinely interested and I can't find any.
I agree another ref on independence is not likely in the near future - at least in part because unlike Salmond who is a gambler, Sturgeon is cautious by nature
The most likely way of getting "permission" from westminster ( which is an abhorrent idea to me) is another GE a hung parliament and that is Sturgeons price for a supply and confidence deal
So shirt extension to A50 to sit down with Corbyn, where he will agree to May's deal?
Seven hours for that?
Agreed, wtf, all day in a meeting & their solution is try & blame labour?
Yep, at this rate we will have an agreement in time to decide which bit of Mars we can live on.
Some language things really - we must do this to avoid having EU Elections IE we are probably preparing to concede we will have to
Some you gov poll results on R4 today
25% support for No Deal/75% Oppose though Leavers moving towards No Deal
No Overall support for any option to leave
Strong support for 2nd Ref & Remain
No cabinet ministers going to comment by the looks of it
If Corbyn has any balls, he'd walk out after 20 minutes, and say she's on her own.
QUIET PLEASE!
What's that? Could it be? Why yes it is!
Ah, the familiar sound of a can being kicked down the road.
If Watson and Starmer have any common sense they will not let him go on his own and do all the talking.
Checkw:
As for Northern Ireland that is the family feud that they need to settle themselves. No amount of world intervention can solve that.
They were sorting it. World intervention was helping. Give it a few years of stability and turnover of the generations enjoying the peace and move it forward again.
The current situation is tearing all of that up. The ignorance and lack of interest and compassion shown is doing real damage, and risks starting the cycle again for another generation.
So shirt extension to A50 to sit down with Corbyn, where he will agree to May’s deal?
Well,first off if he turns up 😉 He'll state what he thinks should be in the deal and she'll pretend to listen,make a few notes,smile and say thank you Jeremy.Then hastliy arrange a a date in parliament for yet another vote on her withdrawal deal,MV4 but this time with some kisses and LOL on the bottom to get it past Bercow.
This debate, this division, cannot drag on much longer. It is putting members of Parliament and everyone else under immense pressure and it is doing damage to our politics.
I think that just about sums up what a bubble these ****wits are living in.
May and Corbyn? The dream team! A masterclass in open, creative and imaginative free-thinking. I’m sure it’ll be sorted in no time....
My money is on him turning up with Seamus Milne but not Kier Starmer. Same as last time. Or him not actually bothering
At least the Gov is moving behind IV and says it will abide by the result.
Well some more interesting chat going on
- How can May commit to something she will not be in charge of - she agreed to resign for her party
- Chance of Labour trying a VoNC if the ERG explode later on this evening - see the Chequers fall out
- May thinks she is setting a trap - Labour think she is walking into theirs
I would be expecting the opposition to request the full no deal advice published today - (probably code named project fear v53)
I seem to have a different take on this to many. I actually think thats a pretty statesperson like statement from May - a damn shame she didn't take this road two years ago.
Now Corbyn holds all the cards. Loyalists in both partys could easily command a majority if both leaders go for it
So will Corbyn have the guts to continue on the line labour have taken and indeed offered recently. Accept the WA and political statement so long as its subject to a confirmatory referendum? Perhaps with the future relationship to be the softest of soft brexits Basically Turkeys deal. ( contrary to hwhat many on her has kept claiming Turkey is in A customs union with the EU but not THE customs union so that is possible)
Personally I think its right that Corbyn does this but the price MUST be a second ref with remain as an option so a stright binary question. Mays WA + future softest of soft brexits or revoke.
NO second ref but he still agrees? Then I shall join the Corbyn haters
We all know a second ref will be a big majority for remain and then we can go full on Dallas and pretend it never happened
kimbers
Subscriber
Agreed, wtf, all day in a meeting & their solution is try & blame labour?
My thoughts exactly as soon as I heard it. Simply trying to shift the blame onto Labour.
Fast forward to 21 mins, will self v francois! 😆
I seem to have a different take on this to many. I actually think thats a pretty statesperson like statement from May – a damn shame she didn’t take this road two years ago.
If she had said this before revoking A50 then we could have called it stateperson like, at this point it's nothing other than looking for only one exit that doesn't involved a massive explosion in the tory party - this will deliver a decent sized one though.
Taking this option now is simply that she has been worn down enough to finally see it's the only sensible option.
She is a defacto Lame Duck here
Now Corbyn holds all the cards. Loyalists in both partys could easily command a majority if both leaders go for it
Only is he reads them.
So will Corbyn have the guts to continue on the line labour have taken and indeed offered recently. Accept the WA and political statement so long as its subject to a confirmatory referendum?
He keeps seeming to forget that the policy is for a 2nd ref, he forgot to mention it in his speech last night too.
Even if a hard border in Ireland isn't explicitly illegal because of the GFA currently, it's illegal because of the WA which expressly precludes it.
--
There's lots of people with crystal balls posting over the last couple of pages. Here's where I see we are. There may be other things in the interim - delays, elections, referendums, whatever - but ultimately we'll have to choose from one of three options:
1) Leave with no deal. There is little appetite in Parliament for this because most if not all know it would be ruinous for the country.
2) Leave with a deal, either May's or Something Else, red unicorns maybe. There is little appetite in Parliament for this because the uncomfortable truth is that even if we had a blank slate to write any sort of fairy story deal we could think of which gave us the absolute best deal we could possibly imagine, it's still worse than the deal we currently have. If we could keep all the benefits of being an EU member state but lose our say in what goes on within the EU... well, who actually wants that? Not leavers, not remainers.
3) Revoke A50 and remain in the EU. There is little appetite in Parliament for this because, oh I don't know, something something will of the people sovereignty democracy something.
Until one of these three things change, we are at an impasse. Deadlocked, paralysed, adrift, irrespective of what the EU27 may or may not hypothetically agree to even. Three years since the referendum and several days after we're supposed to have actually left, our parliament still cannot agree on what they actually want to ask for. It's a completely, utterly ludicrous and impossible situation of our own making.
Polishing my own balls of crystal, I'd put good money on "what happens next?" being yet more delaying tactics, because if there's one thing this government has been good at for the last three years (other than trying to bypass parliamentary democracy at every turn) it's trying to find absolutely anything else to do other than address the in-house pachyderm* I've just spoken about. They seem to be hoping that if they wait long enough then the problem will magically resolve itself or otherwise just go away. And to be honest there's some sort of perverse logic to this: the longer they leave it, the more chance the gammons will either get bored or die off making it a much easier sell to the less-rabid majority of the electorate to have the lame mule that is brexit taken out to pasture and do the humane thing.
So yeah. I'm pretty certain that the next step will be to request an extension and potentially quite a long one. Maybe until the year 2100 in the hope that Schrodinger's Borders have been invented by then.
By which time of course, everyone with any money or talent will have ****ed off to somewhere less rainy and then we're screwed anyway even if we eventually do call the whole thing off. We'll have gone from being the sick man of Europe 40 years ago to being the B-ark or Europe 50 years later, via being the 5th largest economy in the world along the way. And for what, blue sodding passports and chlorinated chicken. What a time to be alive.
(* - not Mark Francois.)
Polishing my own balls of crystal, I’d put good money on “what happens next?” being yet more delaying tactics, because if there’s one thing this government has been good at for the last three years (other than trying to bypass parliamentary democracy at every turn) it’s trying to find absolutely anything else to do other than address the in-house pachyderm*
There is one way, and I know it's not the one you fancy and others deny but it's the risk it option of pass the deal that nobody wants and put it to the people - Corbyn will have the options to tag stuff on at this point you would hope and in return for 200 good votes May can shuffle off to the wheat fields she is pining over.
well put !
I agree with most of what Cougar has said, except for the notion that there’s an opportunity to kick the can even further down the road, the EU are clear that we can seek a temporary extension in event of an election or a referendum. May herself wants to avoid EU elections on the 23rd May.
All she’s doing is to try to obtain Corbyn’s support, wit minimal concessions and certainly nothing that can’t be torn up by her likely ERG successor.
I can’t see Jezza being daft enough to go along with it, but it could be his opportunity to tip us into a GE.