What's changed is that May's run out of road.
Her 'deal' (I use that word loosely) is dead and without DUP support, it'll be another heavy defeat. MP's will vote to take No Deal off the table tomorrow and to extend Article 50 shortly afterwards. She'll then be back to Junker to try and agree a period of time for the extension, which will be hard as she won't know what to do next. I can see a scenario where the EU wont allow anything beyond the Euro elections and her only option is to fully revoke A50. At that point she'll resign - or go off sick with Deep Vein Thrombosis from all that flying.
Critical point here is the final para
However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
Nothing has changed. Therefore May should (at least in theory) lose by a similar margin than last time. If that is the case I cannot see any other option than significant delay and/or second Ref. The whole thing could collapse. If it does, I would claim May has pulled off an act of political genius by stopping Brexit whilst appearing to be working hard to make it happen. Has she potentially saved the UK from itself?
Has she potentially saved the UK from itself?
If that does transpire, I'd say it was more by incompetence than intent, but a win's a win.
My prediction. 60% May will lose tonight. Extension will be voted through. It'll be for the shortest time the Tories can get way with. EU will allow one extension not two - they'll see the short extension as writing on the wall and do more robust no deal planning. We'll have a hard Brexit by June.
40% long extension followed by never leaving. Maybe a BINO.
Does she really have so little self respect and such pig-headed ambition to remain PM so that she is prepared to be remembered as the least competent PM in living memory? I honestly don't know the answer...
But she will have held together her party and that may be all she is worried about.
Trying to hold the party sparked this mess in the first place. I'm hoping she really has run out of road and won't try to weasle out of it again. It's put up or shut up time. If as I suspect (hope) her deal gets destroyed tonight 2 options remain, national suicide on the 29th or ask for an extention. Hopefully the EU will only grant that if something significant is on offer, i.e. second vote. I'm hoping enough of the people anti no deal will realise the only alternative is to stay in, deal (of any description) is not an option with our current politics.
The ERG are irrelevant as they will find an excuse to spike anything short of the disaster they need to satisfy their disaster capitalist agenda.
So, the last 'amendment, 'clause', whatever that May tries to get in Strasbourg (and the EU rightly just ignored) was basically an assurance that the UK could take the EU to court if THEY acted in bad faith over the backstop.
Have a think about the last two and a half years and then consider that request again. Can we sink any lower?
The ERG headbangers have already started their paranoid conspiracy theories that Geoffrey Cox set out to Strasbourg with the brief to sabotage Brexit
The ERG headbangers have already started their paranoid conspiracy theories that Geoffrey Cox set out to Strasbourg with the brief to sabotage Brexit
Of course they are. They may only have a matter of days to go to keep the pretence that they are somehow a politically motivated group when in actual fact they are a disaster capitalist Trojan Horse. In hindsight it will be obvious, in fact it is obvious now, but (all together now).......the people want a Brexit and a Brexit they shall have.
Indeed. My worry is that if May goes, (once she's defeated later) through the arcane rules of the Tory leadership contest, a tiny number of senile old racists in the home counties will deliver this countries first fully blown, out-and-proud Disaster Capitalist PM.
In which case, what we're seen so far will look like a benchmark of polite professional diplomacy as they take a wrecking ball to our relationship with the EU, then pretty much everything else
In which case, what we’re seen so far will look like a benchmark of polite professional diplomacy as they take a wrecking ball to our relationship with the EU
See my post above about May trying to appease the ERG by getting an assurance we can take the EU to court if THEY act in bad faith over the backstop. I'm not sure we can sink any lower.
At least it is nice to feel a new emotion - my near permanent anger is being eclipsed by shame right now.
The BBC are reporting that the ERG headbangers and the DUP will all vote against Mays deal tonight, so its groundhog day, and all that shenanigans last night was just a silly little sideshow
Meanwhile how the former colonies see us.
Former top level diplomat and ex Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd:
“I’m struck, as the British parliament moves towards the endgame on Brexit, with the number of times Australia, Canada, New Zealand and India have been advanced by the Brexiteers in the public debate as magical alternatives to Britain’s current trade and investment relationship with the European Union.
“This is the nuttiest of the many nutty arguments that have emerged from the Land of Hope and Glory set now masquerading as the authentic standard-bearers of British patriotism. It’s utter bollocks.”
If we get a second ref and remain wins....
I now don't give a * if there are riots in the streets. Let the bunch of useless ** kill each other and if police are attacked draft in the army with orders to shoot if attacked. The ones young enough to riot will be the neo Nazi head bangers we are well rid of anyway
Hard line? Yes.
Deserved? Yes.
Does she really have so little self respect and such pig-headed ambition to remain PM so that she is prepared to be remembered as the least competent PM in living memory? I honestly don’t know the answer…
Perhaps she doesn't care about remaining PM and is instead trying to keep the party together and keep the UK in the EU. In other words, chucking herself under the bus for the better good. Perhaps.
In other words, chucking herself under the bus for the better good. Perhaps.
Hahahahaha! Have you really been watching May for the last few years?
Everything, everything she does.... What she is about is keeping her party together and remaining as PM for as long as possible, totally irrelevant of the cost to the country! Ffs!
The BBC are reporting that the ERG headbangers and the DUP will all vote against Mays deal tonight,
Question then is does the vote go ahead or is there to pull it again?
I now don’t give a **** if there are riots in the streets
Yep, let's all go on holiday for a month while it blows over. Europe would be a good choice.
Latest one was more looking like ERG/DUP abstaining rather than voting against, some tories to support her so it's going to be tighter.
Hmmm...
Rees-Mogg's assertion that we simply ignore international treaty is an excellent advertisement for Global Britain. Not.
Smart money is on an extension to Article 50 if May's deal fails in parliament. Either we delay no deal to the end of May/June, or we rescind Article 50 itself. Both scenarios are politically toxic for the Conservatives, the PM has sailed perilously close to contempt of parliament in the last few months.
Populism will wear very thin, very quickly if we go down the no deal route and people struggle to get medicines, food and hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs are kaput overnight. Even the most rabid Brexiteer knows this, so it's highly likely that in event of No Deal then an election is likely to be called very soon after to provide a mandate and to heal a heavily divided Conservative Party.
I now don’t give a * if there are riots in the streets. Let the bunch of useless ** kill each other and if police are attacked draft in the army with orders to shoot if attacked. The ones young enough to riot will be the neo Nazi head bangers we are well rid of anyway
I think if this does happen (I hold some hope of it) then the only thing we can do as individuals is to avoid the mistakes the Leavers made post Ref1 - namely, none of this "you lost, get over it" stuff. No talk of joining the Euro because we've got an unlimited mandate now. It would be time to recognise that even with all the BS the Leavers spouted, millions of people have lots of issues with the EU that need to be addressed.
The major parties cannot keep blaming the EU for unpopular choices they make.
They have to stop ignoring the EU elections to let the nutters represent us as MEPs.
Equally, we have to use our really premium position within the EU to address issues like immigration.
Otherwise, it's just going to come back again and again, with the ERG claiming we would have been so much better off if we left, how the EU 'stole' Brexit etc etc until we nominate some real Dupper into power who'll drag us out kicking and screaming.
Whilst I agree with that, P-Jay, I'm not so sure that we have any hope of retaining a "premium" position after this...
Otherwise, it’s just going to come back again and again
No-one is going to try this again.
ERG = Momentum. And neither organisation can get elected by the public in a general election.
Apart from the fact that the ERG is made up of elected MPs, and is funded by the public.
The comparison is not logical.
So yeah, don't vote for Tories and you won't get them in power.
Surely Duppity Mogg must know that there isn't support for no deal and will vote for may.
It would be time to recognise that even with all the BS the Leavers spouted, millions of people have lots of issues with the EU that need to be addressed.
"Now"? I said that the day after the referendum. We need to be pushing for Reform, not just Remain. It amazes me that this is patently obvious to a halfwit on a mountain biking website, but seemingly hasn't occurred to anyone whose job it is to understand this stuff.
Apart from the fact that the ERG is made up of elected MPs, and is funded by the public.
The Tory party has never stood for election on a ticket anywhere near as right wing as these lot. We've had David Cameron hugging huskies, then Theresa and her helping the 'Just-about-managing' horseshit. We've never had a full blooded slash-and-burn Tory party advocating setting fire to everything just to see what happens.
The nearest was IDS, then Michael Howard who both went down a storm if you remember
Well we could soon be finding out. I have a horrible feeling the next general election is going to be a straight choice between Corbyn (as he's clearly going nowhere) and whichever hard-right, rabidly free-market, slash and burn headcase the Tory membership install. I think the bookies present favourite is Boris Johnson with Rees Mogg as chancellor
In which case leaving the country is going to be the only realistic option
Apart from the fact that the ERG is made up of elected MPs, and is funded by the public.
The comparison is not logical.
So yeah, don’t vote for Tories and you won’t get them in power.
I believe that the current ERG chair, Sir Michael Spicer is not a sitting MP. Happy to be proved wrong.
The ERG don't publish membership details and it's widely thought that the ERG has many members and supporters outside of sitting MPs, just look at who contributes financially to them. I don't think either of these groups have any place in UK politics. So the comparison, in my opinion is perfectly logical and valid.
So my prediction
- Todays vote lost by 150
- Article 50 extension of around 45 days
- No meaningful change to deal
- Faced with threat of not getting it though Kyle Amendment is accepted (Labour amendment agreeing to support deal on condition of it going to second referendum)
- 2nd Ref called and lost*
- New Tory Leadership*
- General Election*
*not sure about order of this bit.
Either way, no Brexit.
Based on that, and if I am right, there is no way BloJo or JRM could win Leadership bid.
The ERG don’t publish membership details and it’s widely thought that the ERG has many members and supporters outside of sitting MPs,
Legal case, ERG must publish membership list, just see how long they string it out for.
So my prediction
If this is defeated today May will offer a customs union to the labour party and they'll vote through a deal with no referendum. Hell they might even go full Norway and abandon the FoM position. May will then step aside handing power to a brexiteer nutter (Boris probably) with a legacy of a soft brexit deal they don't want and can't defend. It will be payback for all the crap she's had to deal with.
May will then step aside handing power to a brexiteer nutter (Boris probably) with a legacy of a soft brexit deal they don’t want and can’t defend. It will be payback for all the crap she’s had to deal with.
I wouldnt put it past a headbanging brexiteer to renege on the deal & just push us into a hard Brexit anyway
gotta be a worry for the EU
If this is defeated today May will offer a customs union to the labour party and they’ll vote through a deal with no referendum.
Noises coming from senior tories (some named) is that defeat is end of the government, they can't support her or the path forward. Extension and election end of April
gotta be a worry for the EU
Why?
They need us more than we need them, remember.
Another election means I get paid for a day working in the Polling Station so its not all bad news!
Senior tories saying if this goes down in flames tonight then she’s finished.
But how many times have we heard that before?
She seems to be the ultimate tag-nut. It’d be alright to admire her single-mindedness, determination, stubbornness, or whatever, if there were actually any point to it and it was actually going somewhere
I thought she was untouchable for a year.
Senior tories saying if this goes down in flames tonight then she’s finished.
she deserves it, appalling politician!
I thought she was untouchable for a year.
Exactly. If she chooses, she can hang on almost ad infinitum. I guess her entire cabinet could resign, but she might not get the hint even then.
I thought she was untouchable for a year.
That was my understanding - unless she resigns? But my understanding is that no-one can ask for a vote of no confidence.
The opposition could ask for a vote of no confidence in the entire government.
Quite a few people pointing towards a potential GE - that's the last thing we need. Especially when the 2 main parties are currently unelectable.
The whole thing has been a deliberate ploy to delay as long as possible, force an election which the Tories lose and dump the whole poison chalice of Brexit on to (presumably) Labour who then have no chance of making anything good out of it. The tories then watch from the sidelines as the country burns (metaphorically hopefully) before sweeping back in as the knights in tarnished armour to clean up the mess. Austerity will look like a veritable spending spree in 5 years from now so they'll be able to look positively generous.
Probably.
I think Conservative Central Office might be a bit over-optimistic thinking people are going to associate the party with competent government within five years. Perhaps 20.
ERG = Momentum. And neither organisation can get elected by the public in a general election.
Indeed but both groups will have installed their prefered candidate for the upcoming alection...
TBH I don't really think JRM cares which was things go Brexit wise at present, thet've engineered a situation where the current Leader must go once the dirty business of Brexit is done and they can put their man in post (My money is on Boris) for a (maybe July~Augustish) election...
but the ERG have gotten what they want from it, however the parlimentary votes go it fits their narrative, They're undaunted by a no-deal outcome they can vilify May if somehow her deal goes through (Can't see it) and if we end up having Brexit Ref 2, the mere holding of it let along a remain decision will be labelled as a "Betrayal" all of which will galvanize the Right wingers around a new, ERG backed Tory leadership...
The prize isn't really Brexit (hard or soft) it's control of parliament and a right leaning Tory party in a now deeply divied UK...
Was that Camerons long game all along?
