Estimate is 1% drop in total tax revenue, just due to funds already announced to be leaving the UK.
6 billion then.
My mistake, bus money was 20 billion.
Nice to see the alternative universe of the Brexiteers is alive and well and as detached from reality as ever
Iain Duncan Smith was on radio 4 this afternoon saying that May is flying to Strasbourg later where the EU will cave in to UK demands on the backstop, then May will return victorious and her deal will be passed in parliament tomorrow
Just spotted this on Facebook, no idea of its credibility.
BREAKING: Theresa May seeking #Brexit delay until 24 May - reports, to be confirmed.
If she gets a delay agreed with the eu I reckon that'll be tomorrow's vote in Parliament, so she avoids defeat of her deal and boots the can waaay down the road. Doesn't actually solve anything for businesses who are trying to plan a route through this "bit of a mess" but saves her job, so that's OK then.
Just heard a report on the radio that said she might of got the EU to give some ground so may win tomorrow’s vote.n
I just saw this on the Beeb page - "Cabinet minister tells me on Theresa May’s #Brexit negotiations in Strasbourg: It’s not looking good".
BREAKING: Theresa May seeking #Brexit delay until 24 May – reports, to be confirmed.
Saw this the other day in Guardian-
Even some of May’s supporters are now only trying to get her over the line of “Gordon Brown Day” – 28 May – the point at which she will have served for prime minister longer than her Labour predecessor.
Just heard a report on the radio that said she might of got the EU to give some ground so may win tomorrow’s vote.n
This being after the news quiz reported an aide got her to say simples and won the bet getting a fancy day out from it. Next up see if we can recreate famous historical moments
I'd also suggest it's not a bad time to register some opinions 🙂
https://yougov.co.uk/
It's interesting to see what questions people are asking, social mobility was todays topic of choice
Brexit surveys are fairly common and the only way our views are being heard at the moment
“It is difficult to give a helping hand to people who stand with both hands in their pockets,”
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Danish PM, or for those of you who watched Borgen, Danmarks statsminister. 😀
think you'll find we have a pair of stumps our hands were cut off in a fit of pique with big red cleaver
The Beeb is adamant the EU have zero intention of blinking. Zero.
They see this totally as a UK problem now....
That they are being asked to sort out. Completely irrational, you have to agree.
May.... Delay.... May.... Delay....
The EU, which we are a big part of, that EU.
We'll I never.
Easy deals.
So no changes to the WA
But a 'legally binding' joint statement, hmmm not sure that's going to pass Cox's Tests
It's been fudged. It's the same but different.
What a surprise.Lol
What a joke.
Would it be too much to ask the head of our country to stop pissing about?
Obviously the answer is yes.
Just before I go to bed....
DUP haven't said an outright no to the deal... They are going to "scrutinise it".
One Brexiteer has also said he will vote for the deal.
Can't be ssked to go find his name, it's on the Beeb.... He's a bit of an unknown. Not one of the big named loons Brexiteers.
DUP haven’t said an outright no to the deal… They are going to “scrutinise it”.
One Brexiteer has also said he will vote for the deal.
The last thing the DUP want is to collapse the Govt. They have disproportionate influence at the moment and a magic money tree. So this may just be enough to allow them to support it.
This seems to be the crucial change, an arbitration panel whose findings must be adhered to. I think 🤔
Under the dispute settlement mechanism, a ruling by the arbitration panel that a party acts
with the objective of applying the Protocol indefinitely would be binding on the Union and the
United Kingdom. Persistent failure by a party to comply with a ruling, and thus persistent
failure by that party to return to compliance with its obligations under the Withdrawal
Agreement, may result in temporary remedies. Ultimately, the aggrieved party would have the
right to enact a unilateral, proportionate suspension of its obligations under the Withdrawal
Agreement (other than Part Two), including the Protocol. Such a suspension may remain in
place unless and until the offending party has taken the necessary measures to comply with
the ruling of the arbitration panel.
B. IN RELATION TO SAFEGUARDS FOR NORTHERN IRELAND
Text from a Tweet Thread last night (David Allen Green who is worth a follow).
You cannot have a "unilateral" interpretation of a bilateral text. It makes no sense. It is meaningless. It is illogical. It is oxymoronic. It is moronic. And it certainly is *not* "legally binding".
A "best endeavours" provision in any legal instrument is so limp as to be almost meaningless. And such provisions are almost impossible to practically enforce, and even to evidence a breach. Not "legally binding" in any significant way.
And let this be put in plain terms. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has *not* been reopened. Everything this evening is mere paraphernalia, gimmickry. A sticking plaster, some lipstick, a new year's resolution. Nothing "legally binding" in any meaningful sense.
this may be true (IANAL) but facts have long since left the building. If facts were the guiding principle this would have been in the round filing cabinet long ago.
The only relevant question is whether this 'concession' provides sufficient people with a sufficiently set of shonky steps that they can use to climb down from their previous position, and vote for the deal and so keep their grip on power together.
And I'm concerned that it may be, if Cox comes back and says it's OK. They are looking for a reason and if they can fall back on someone else's 'expert' advice at that point - hell; it's off their conscience.
Don't feel comfortable at all......
Chances of the 'meaningful vote' actually taking place today?
Zero?
Shall we have a sweep on what time it gets pulled?
I'll go for 12.30
What do you reckon?
has anyone seen the comment on that article? 😆
Shows what we're up against...you click through to the facebooks of some of those credulous loons and you'll find them reposting that article as news and various other folk falling for it.
We are in an era where satire is as believable as the truth.
this may be true (IANAL) but facts have long since left the building. If facts were the guiding principle this would have been in the round filing cabinet long ago.
The only relevant question is whether this ‘concession’ provides sufficient people with a sufficiently set of shonky steps that they can use to climb down from their previous position, and vote for the deal and so keep their grip on power together.
And I’m concerned that it may be, if Cox comes back and says it’s OK. They are looking for a reason and if they can fall back on someone else’s ‘expert’ advice at that point – hell; it’s off their conscience.
Don’t feel comfortable at all……
Agree. How late can ammendments be put in place because I think the second referendum lot may have lost there oppurtunity. I think the Kyle-wislon ammendemtn needs to go in now to be voted on today.
If Mays deal goes through how much will our day to day lives change?
Can we still buy bike bits from ze germans, will my chocolates be tariff free?
Will there be queues at the ports, food prices going up, mainlanders being deported?
Would airbus and the car factories stay?
Would retiring to the sun still be an option?
The only meaningful vote that should be happening is to get rid of both labour and the cons , I wonder if no leadership whatsoever would be better than the shower of shit running the spot right now
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105239804831248385?s=19
Starmer dismantled the new statements within a few minutes of seeing the text.- as well as being non binding flim flam, May's promise to get the WA re-opened after her last defeat has quite obviously been broken, as Starter pointed this out in commons last night the mood on the Tory benches visibly deflated.
DAG and other lawyers on twitter saying the same thing
So unless Cox can wrangle a new twist on it, May is still in trouble.
If Mays deal goes through how much will our day to day lives change?
Can we still buy bike bits from zero Germans, will my chocolates be tariff free?
Will there be queues at the ports, food prices going up, mainlanders being deported?
Would airbus and the car factories stay?
I'd quite like the four horseman on here to lay down their exact predictions. It's so easy to keep saying it's going to be a cluster****. (I admit that's a bit cheeky no one is an oracle and could extrapolate all the Tory domestic damage.)
Chances of the ‘meaningful vote’ actually taking place today?
Zero?
Shall we have a sweep on what time it gets pulled?
I’ll go for 12.30
What do you reckon?
To be fair to Binners - at least he's willing to put some numbers to it.
I'd say the vote is on. (Although we will be more certain when all the legal stuff by Geoffrey Cox - has been checked out) I think that will steer the ship.
I'm going for the vote being on.
zippykona
Subscriber
If Mays deal goes through how much will our day to day lives change?
Honestly we don't know, the WA covers about 20% of what we need to work out, 5+ years of future relationship talks b4 we know the answer to that, it's why Hammond's promise of an investment 'boom' post vote aren't believed by the BOE & other economists.
Which is very worrying for airbus/auto workers, but that's Brexit for ya!
They are looking for a reason and if they can fall back on someone else’s ‘expert’ advice at that point – hell; it’s off their conscience.
Absolutely, after May came back with this deal in Xmas 2017 many of the brexiteers thought it was a victory, it wasn't till Cox pointed out that it was trap b4 they started objecting, but then these were the same brexiteers that cheered May's red lines at the start, without realising that they made our present situation inevitable-
we can't keep the benefits of membership after we leave, is not something they've grasped (or won't admit in public, because they only won the vote by pretending there were no benefits)
How do you embed tweets??
Jon Snow writes:
A Lawyer contact tells me that the legal world is aware that the Attorney General said NO last night to the validity of Mrs May's 'new EU deal'...he been told to go away and find a way to say YES: A cohort of lawyers has been summoned.
Gives some substance to the notion this was agreed over the weekend, and rolled out at the last possible moment to minimise scrutiny.
Looks like someone over at The Mirror is a bit vexed.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nobody-wants-brexit-its-time-14117958
Under Article 178 of the Withdrawal Agreement, if either side is found to have acted in breach of the good faith/best endeavours obligation, the strongest remedy is “temporary suspension” of parts of the Agreement to force the other side back to the negotiating table.
What a load of wooly fluff, how exactly does one get found to be in breach of 'best endeavours'? Lol!
It’s all spin and lies out there;
UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has described as "b*******" a claim that he had been "told to find a way" to ensure legal validation of Theresa May's newly-negotiated arrangement with the EU.
The one-word tweeted response was given to Channel 4 News presenter Jon Snow, who had tweeted: "A Lawyer contact tells me that the legal world is aware that the Attorney General said NO last night to the validity of Mrs May's 'new EU deal'... he been told to go away and find a way to say YES: A cohort of lawyers has been summoned."
Good to see JRM is already using the dup as potential fallguys so the erg can fold.
Rte seems a bit better than bbc for coverage and included this one;
Meanwhile, Independent Group MP Anna Soubry tweeted: "Just in case you weren't sure who's running our country @Jacob--Rees--Mogg confirms the most important decision our country has taken since WW2 hangs on the views of a self appointed committee of #ERG hard #Brexit 'lawyers' and the DUP. So much for #TakingBackControl."
Psst… for those not paying attention… ages ago the EU sought a "punishment clause" in case we didn't bother seeking a proper permanent relationship, and tried to just hold on to transition and backstop arrangements as long as possible instead. The UK papers went utterly bonkers over that. Yet now all this latest "clarification" suggests that the EU has one… they can temporarily hammer our trade in goods to teach us a lesson, and push us into actually aiming for something solid. I think, considering our current politicians, I might welcome them being given that whip hand… but selling it as the UK gaining more power over its relationship with our neighbours is pure comedy gold.
kelvin, i wouldn't call it a punishment clause, the reality is that the EU have almost complete control over all farm exports, over GDPR compliance, international bus travel, haulage, flights, food imports, etc.
If the UK doesn't "do as it is told" they can break the UK very easily. I am not suggesting they will, but the one thing the UK is not doing is taking back control. Control has been given away.
Amnyway, on the basis that everyone hates the deal, if this deal does get accepted how many days until the uk tries to break it?
Well it doesn't matter what Geoffrey Cox (or anyone else) thinks, the ERG have decided it doesn't meet there demands
By this point I don't think anyones under any illusions about who it is who's actually running the country, so thats the end of that then.
I'm definitely going for this vote being pulled in the next few hours
I think the vote will go through and May will win. She will get the win because the tories want to keep the party together more than they actually want Brexit or what is best for the country.
The tories are an absolute disgrace of a party, they only want what's good for the party. Party first and sod everyone else. After the vote I think we'll see the ERG take control of the party, as May is on limited time once she wins the vote.
All in my humble opinion.
Well it doesn’t matter what Geoffrey Cox (or anyone else) thinks, the ERG have decided it doesn’t meet there demands
I don't think that matters because the ERG will oust May once her deal is voted through and they can then install someone that is more agreeable to their dogma.
ERG = Momentum. And neither organisation can get elected by the public in a general election.
The ERG have already taken over the Tory Party. Their tail has been wagging the Tory dog since Mays botched election. All that remains is for them to install their figurehead which, god help us, will probably be Boris. Its no coincidence that Rees Mogg is the one being interviewed by all the news organisations today. We all know that his opinion seems to be the only one that matters, particularly in Number 10
And you're right. They are the right wing Momentum. 2 cheeks of the same arse, and both totally unelectable in a General Election. Their only way to power is through a takeover.
But I that the ERG will vote this down so that they can depose May in the resulting chaos. Can you really see her surviving if her vote goes down to a huge defeat (as seems likely)?
As for the damage that does to the economy..... well that's not really a priority. Its not them that will pay the price. Nothing else but their fantasy return-to-empire matters
I still think she'll pull this vote in the next few hours and it won't take place today
All these pieces of paper and the fact remains that this does not give the UK a unliteral right to exit and therefore does not conform to the mandate that May says she was given by Parliament. The sneakiness of celebrating her “legally binding changes” despite the fact that they are, totally inevitably, not the legall binding changes she acknowledged Parliament had required her to obtain, is breathtaking even by relative standards. The British public continues to be defrauded.
Cox says nothing much has changed from a legal point of view.
Conclusion
15. In my letter of 13 November 2018, I advised that the Protocol would endure indefinitely in international law and could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believed that talks have clearly broken down and there was no prospect of a future relationship agreement.
16. I also advised that in the specific case that situation was due to the EU’s want of good faith and best endeavours, because of the difficulties of proof and the egregious nature of the conduct that would be required to establish a breach by the EU of those obligations, it would be highly unlikely that the United Kingdom could take advantage of the remedies available to it for such a breach under the Withdrawal Agreement.
17. I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the Joint Instrument and the content of the Unilateral Declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.
18. It may be thought that if both parties deploy a sincere desire to reach agreement and the necessary diligence, flexibility and goodwill implied by the amplified duties set out in the Joint Instrument, it is highly unlikely that a satisfactory subsequent agreement to replace the Protocol will not be concluded. But as I have previously advised, that is a political judgment, which, given the mutual incentives of the parties and the available options and competing risks, I remain strongly of the view it is right to make.
19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
(The formatting of that quote was making my teeth itch, so I've edited it for you.)
So, to summarise.... to quote Theresa herself:
"nothing has changed"
It really is groundhog day. With the same results, no doubt
