Labour still attempting to pull the plug without being labelled as saboteurs by half their voters. Not sure that particular tightrope can be walked though.
I suppose the political endgame is that May wouldn't mind it all collapsing if Labour could be subsequently blamed during the inevitable election. It is a trap laid for both the ERG loons and Labour. The first part, which the Brexiteers have already fallen headlong into, was the idea that rejecting the deal might mean no deal, when that was never the case. The second is that voting against will mean you go against the 'will of the people'. Labour is teetering over this one.
All of which sounds like political genius from May when written down. So perhaps it's all just luck.
not just half their voters martin - also a significant part of the party who also want out.
On renegotiation.
I am sure ( and seem to remeber statements to this effect from the EU side) that if the government falls and a new incoming government wants to negotiate a more sensible deal which is much closer to the EU then the EU would allow this. What they won't allow is a renegotiation of this deal but something much closer to the EU - Norway +? of course they would.
If Labour do decide to block May's deal, it's not as if there are many alternatives for their Exit supporters.
UKIP have gone all EDL (a bit of an option but not enough to lose seats) and the Tories only have May's deal.
It is a trap laid for both the ERG loons and Labour.
This is the biggest danger for Labour. even though many, perhaps a majority, in the party are massively frustrated that they refuse to budge from their pro-brexit position, they could potentially be seen as anti-brexit wreckers by the electorate if they vote the deal down. I still think they will move toward and ultra-soft brexit, perhaps even a 2nd referendum, but it's going to be a very carefully timed incremental shift.
dogbone - bar split the party as they have been threatening!
dazh, I think you are wishing upon them a Machiavellian scheme, that they show on no level of being able to plan or implement.
MSP, yes but it might just drop into their lap unexpectedly!
if the deal isn't voted through, the EU will accept (or possibly offer) an extension to A50 - it's in their interest to because it avoids a crash out* and they leave the negotiated deal on the table. path of least resistance and ball straight back in UK court, why wouldn't you if you were in that position.
Problem with a no vote, it doesn't explain what is wrong with the deal, it's a stalemate.
If it isn't voted through then the options are Referendum, TMay resignation or GE, and GE looks the most likely because Teresa will not resign but is prepared to call GE on the basis that the press will back the tories and hatchet Jezza again.
*neither side wants a crash out and I actually believe the EU when they say that.
I cant help but think that there are as yet unknown powers at work pushing this towards another referendum.
not just half their voters martin – also a significant part of the party who also want out.
A significant majority of Labour voters voted to remain, yet the party can't bring itself to enfranchise them. Our entire political system is so fundamentally broken.
We're in new political territory here and Labour remain petrified of losing support in the old Labour heartlands, many of whom voted leave in the Ref and UKIP in the last GE. The truth is, Corbyn's vision of this part of the electorate is old fashioned and where it was accurate (in places like Sunderland) the coffee has been smelled and they don't like it (Nissan threatening to up sticks etc). HM Opposition have been pitifully weak throughout the whole of Brexit so far and should be lobbying for a 2nd ref now we know what Brexit looks like. However, he's just happy to sit at the back of the class under the misapprehension that a new GE is his route to No. 10. That is not going to happen. I can see a new leader of Labour before too long. Hopefully.
If it isn’t voted through then the options are Referendum, TMay resignation or GE, and GE looks the most likely because Teresa will not resign but is prepared to call GE on the basis that the press will back the tories and hatchet Jezza again.
TM won't call a GE. She'll wait until she's forced to.
So Jezza will need to call a motion of no confidence, and then the DUP will need to support it. The risk for the DUP is they could then end up with less seats and a less important position in parliament, and thus less influence on the Brexit deal that will be about to be renegotiated. Then they really will be at risk of regulatory divergence with the rest of the UK. I just can't see them chancing it.
So IMO, the DUP would vote with the government on a no confidence vote, TM will win it by a fraction, and there will be no GE. She has already said on record that as far as she's concerned, winning a no confidence motion by a single vote is enough.
We will get either the current Brexit deal or something very similar.
Mays meeting with Labour MPs tonight to try & sell them her deal
wonder how many will even turn up?
Whatever happens, Jezza isn't going to get his general election. The Tory's will happily fight like rats in a sack... right up until the point where they risk a GE. Then they'll stop.
Unfortunately Labours Plan (such as it is) is to win a General Election then they can somehow negotiate a magic unicorn fairy-tale version of Brexit that only exists in Jeremy Corbyns head, and will be laughed out of the place by the EU.
So if that doesn't work, which it won't, then Plan B is ..... erm..... errrrrrrr..... no, sorry.... there isn't a plan B
So if that doesn’t work, which it won’t, then Plan B is ….. erm….. errrrrrrr….. no, sorry…. there isn’t a plan B
Yes there is - repeat plan A. But, with Labour. That'll do it.
What I find interesting, is that there are plenty of stories out there where people who have voted leave are saying they regret it, they didn't know what they were voting for etc... I've not heard one person who voted to remain say I made a mistake. We should leave.
actually polls say just as many have switched from remain to leave as the other way round, a few more leavers, 'dont know'
Actually now I think about it, even if Teresa loses a GE, it passes the hot potato to uncle Jezza who still has to deliver it (or renegotiate which may or may not be an option) and she can claim 'it was my deal all along', but if she wins she gets to railroad it through parliament.
Problem with a referendum is that all the MPs will have to explain themselves properly on whether it's a good deal or not and they'll be compared to the 2016 position, which makes them look silly.
How many of the 7% that were 2016 Remain / 2018 Leave are in that category because we had ourvote and a decision was made and therefore that needs to be honoured?
In fact, how many of the 2016 leave / 2018 Leave would also now prefer remain but wouldn't vote that way because of 'just get on with it' ?
One thing we've learnt in no uncertain terms over the last few years is that our supposedly liberal country is actually nothing off the sort. In reality, its stuffed full of bitter, small-minded racists and wilfully ignorant thicko's
I can see the second referendum delivering exactly the same result as the first
What stands out for me is that, of those who did not vote in 2016, twice as many now want to remain, than want to leave (accepting that the majority would still not vote/don't know)
There was a fair chunk of complacency in both the campaigning and voting on the remain side. I don't think it would be a straight re-run even if only on that basis.
So if we had a re-run of the referendum, who would front the remain campaign?
Another vote should be on outcome, TM deal, no deal,, cancel A50.
Judging by the movement in the polls and all the anecdotes of people chaging their minds I think it would be stronly remain if we have a new referendum - after all all the lies from the leavers have been exposed as lies. No longer can they get away with it. also all the "leaders" are now discredited with trashed reputations. Easy targets.
As for who would front a remain campaign - Dunno. Left field choice Sturgeon? Or two easy to paint her as a Scot trying to tell the english what to do. Starmer? He is about the only person to come out of the last couple of years with a better reputation. NOt a lib dem for sure.
Edit: original post withdrawn as, having thought about it, I can't actually see any reason that they should be a tory
Starmer does appear to be one of the very few with any integrity...
So if we had a re-run of the referendum, who would front the remain campaign?
Holly Willoughbooby and Philip Schofield.
They'd do a better job of it than the last lot.
Mind you... the Chuckle Bothers would be a vast improvement on that, and one of them's dead
Judging by the movement in the polls and all the anecdotes of people chaging their minds I think it would be stronly remain if we have a new referendum
I think the great danger of a second referendum would be complacency. If people didn't turn out, who knows what the result would be?
If we had another referendum after March 19 and voted to stay could the EU say that they don’t want the UK back in?
I don't see why not. They could certainly put a lot of roadblocks in the way to us re-joining.
Assuming kentishman meant 29th, ie after we have actually left, then yes there's likely to be a price to pay for rejoining. Not as good terms as we currently have anyway.
I think another ref would have a strong turnout from remain, they’re the ones with the fire in their bellies this time around!
One thing we’ve learnt in no uncertain terms over the last few years is that our supposedly liberal country is actually nothing off the sort. In reality, its stuffed full of bitter, small-minded racists and wilfully ignorant thicko’s
You may have learnt that, I have known it for more than 30 years since I was a teenager. It is however still more liberal that a lot of countries so there is that I suppose.
I'm also not convinced by a 2nd ref - lots of uninterested people would (incorrectly) see May's deal as "getting it over with". And another tranche would vote leave out of a sense of fair play.
OTOH anything to delay/postpone brexit is a good thing, once we've had a few cycles of vote/argue/vote/argue maybe it will go away.
I am sure the EU would allow leaving date to be postponed for another referendum especially if the alternative is a cliff edge given the next to no chance of this deal getting thru parliament.
First analysis of government’s Brexit plan finds UK would be £100 billion poorer each year...
Just need a red bus....
Is that experts again?
our supposedly liberal country is actually nothing off the sort. In reality, its stuffed full of bitter, small-minded racists and wilfully ignorant thicko’s
Half full, mate. Plus I sincerely believe that many leavers voted with good intentions having believed the anti-EU propaganda.
I am sure the EU would allow leaving date to be postponed for another referendum
Yes. They want us in, they would love Brexit never to have happened.
watching may take pelters here, obviously not going to get voted through, so what happens next?
First analysis of government’s Brexit plan finds UK would be £100 billion poorer each year…
In 2030. I know enough about economics to know that any calculation 12 years out is not worth taking any notice of. Way too many unknowns, moving parts etc,. and hard enough to predict 2 years let alone 12.
watching may take pelters here, obviously not going to get voted through, so what happens next?
Uncharted waters really. Pre the fixed term governments act it would be confidence vote and a new election more than likely. that could still happen.
I wonder if she would resign as PM if the deal is voted down without making a confidence motion. She really has done the best that she could do withing the constraints she has - some of her own making and some from others. That way the whole government does not fall but another tory gets elected as PM from within the party.
The grauniad has some analysis of what could happen but its pretty much all guess work at this point. Its a completely unprecedented situation.
And another tranche would vote leave out of a sense of fair play.
Taking away the chance for a Leave voter to change their mind based on the evidence is not in any way 'fair play'.
Parliament to vote on the 11th December according to breaking news on the German TV. Nothing at all showing on the BBC Website as yet!
In other news, we'll find out on Tuesday whether A50 is unilaterally reversible.
The government is arguing that there's no point in finding out because they're not doing it. Because god forbid that we might make a decision based on knowing things.