Very unlikely that this deal will get thru parliament which then takes us into uncharted waters.
I think May will make the deal a confidence issue. There's no way she can't, as she's in pretty much the same position Cameron was with the brexit vote. The big question is will she have the balls to resign if she loses? If she does there's a good chance the government will collapse, and a snap election before christmas could be a realistic prospect as I reckon May would prefer that to a second referendum.
Whatever happens it's going to be chaos. Markets crashing, pound plummeting, leadership campaigns (perhaps in both parties if labour's brexit divides explode), and whatever else. Part of me wonders if we might be better off they vote it through.
This ‘deal’s’ going all the way. When it comes down to it, the self-serving MP’s will be too scared to force a no deal. There is simply not enough momentum behind a referendum.
The ‘people’ are, frankly, sick of Brexit. Remoaners are only a slightly bigger minority than the rabid gammons. The majority of the voting public just don’t care any more.
If May makes it a confidence issue then the government collapses for sure and I am sure she knows it. The DUP will never vote for it and the few bampots on the labour benches that might vote for the deal will surely not if it becomes a confidence vote.
If she doesn't make it a confidence issue it will be the biggest abdication of political responsibility and accountability I can remember. It's her deal, she has negotiated it, pushed it in the face of massive opposition and now is begging for everyone to get behind it. If it doesn't go through she has to go, it's as simple as that. If she doesn't she's going to look like a tin-pot dictator clinging on to power by her fingertips.
Tin pot dictators tend to exert more authority, she is just the lamest of lame duck leaders.
The deal will go through parliament . No deal too dangerous
The alternative is remain tho - not no deal no matter how much May wants to paint it. there is no majority in parliament for either no deal or this deal
And no deal of course means its highly likely that Scotland will go for independence - no objection from Spain now for Scotland to remain in the EU and a fair chance NI rejoins the republic
Nobody is presenting remain as a realistic alternative. May and other politicians are only talking about the possibility of no Brexit to bait the gammons. Think of it as saying that a bad deal is better than no Brexit.
I still think the potential for no deal is uncomfortably high, but the ‘deal’ seems more likely. I no longer hold any hope of remaining.
a fair chance NI rejoins the republic
Hmmm. That may be a way off...
Remain won't be an option The Tories and Labour have said they will carry on with the will of the people.
Wait until the end of the SNP case gets to verdict
What difference will the ECJ judgement make? The EU27 would wave through any request to rescind A50. The will to do so is not there in any kind of majority, not within Parliament nor the general public (at least not those who get off their fat arses and vote).
What difference will the ECJ judgement make?
I would undermine the BS position the leaders are pushing that there are no other options. That is where you start with public opinion
Point of order
It's not a snp case
Polls show in the event of a no Deal brexit a clear majority in Ni for unification and under gfa the right is there to hold a vote
The majority of the public will just view it as political chicanery. They won’t really care about its implications.
Ah OK then so if people can stand up and call BS on the A50 that won't change opinions
Given the tide is turning against brexit it comes down to how far people want to go.
The majority of the public will just view it as political chicanery.
So what do the majority want?
My belief is that the majority just want Brexit done. It’s old news.
As much as I want to Remain, it must be based on a voted majority, but that vote ain’t happening this side of the 29th March 2019.
If Brexit is seen to be called off on a technicality with no direct mandate from ‘the people’ I fear that would be more damaging in the long-term than Leaving.
My belief is that the majority just want Brexit done. It’s old news.
Public opinion is important, giving people a direction to rally around is interesting and important, if you have no option to align with then there is apathy. Give people a direction and see them rally behind it
More boat people were picked up in the channel today.
Surely brexit was going to stop this sort of thing.
Don't these illegal immigrants realise it's even more illegallerer now.
Too late for remain unless a party gets behind it
Don’t these illegal immigrants realise it’s even more illegallerer now.
Yeah, helpfully makes no difference to asylum and refugees if you can get out of the system and not be recorded till you hit the EU.
It's almost as it the whose idea of brexit is BS
Sadly those opinion polls haven’t really proved to be worth much in recent years
People will only rally behind a cause it if offers them something. The majority don’t know/care what leave really means - many who agree it’ll be worse than remain still don’t think that it will really matter to them. Combine this ignorance with a fundamental psychological inability of humans to recognise and correct bad decisions and I just can’t see enough people wanting to reverse A50 in the next 4 months.
Maybe in 5-10 years, if Leave really is a ****ing catastrophe.
Sadly those opinion polls haven’t really proved to be worth much in recent years
Yep people refuse to believe them or think that public opinion can change
People will only rally behind a cause it if offers them something
Yep up until now nobody has given them a serious remain option, that could be coming next week as a viable option to Deal/No Deal
The majority don’t know/care what leave really means
Says the man who doesn't put any stock in polls
I just can’t see enough people wanting to reverse A50 in the next 4 months.
Some of the biggest political marches in recent history have been in support of remain. So far we have had no leadership to push that at the top level.
Political opinion can flip in days and public opinion isn't much slower. I agree though that a large proportion of the disinterested public will just say "get it over with" without bothering to think about what "it" is.
Exactly Mike, as said above no one is pushing for Remain. Too late now.
No, it might not have happened yet but it won't be too late for a while.
Exactly Mike, as said above no one is pushing for Remain. Too late now.
Well that will be seen, especially if legally its shown that the whole process can be stopped.
Our only hope is that deal gets rejected,, government collapses and EU and UK agree to push back leaving date. EU have said there won't be better deals but if they sense there is small chance of a remain deal they will agree.
no one is pushing for Remain
Many MPs, of all parties (except the DUP), have been pushing for an end to this for months. If you haven't heard them doing so, think why that might be…
There are lots of ways this can play out, but most of them end with no brexit.
no one is pushing for Remain
Apart from the SNP. the liberal democrats, large parts of the labour movement, large sections of the population, some of the unions ( quietly)
The various court cases most importantly the one being held this week in the EU courts have some bearing.
Remember if this "deal" is not ratified in parliament which I think highly likely to happen then something else has to happen or we crash out with no deal in March. That something else can either be we ask for an extension of the a50 period ( most likely if the government falls) or just scrap the whole thing or a second referendum.
if they sense there is small chance of a remain deal they will agree
Which is why a general election, with both of the two main parties promising to Leave the EU, will do nothing for our situation and would just make a no deal Brexit more likely. Labour either needs to support a referendum or campaign to stop Brexit. Corbyn will do neither, unless forced to. Keep up the pressure.
Many MPs, of all parties (except the DUP), have been pushing for an end to this for months. If you haven’t heard them doing so, think why that might be
Some MP's have, the majority are keeping there heads below the parapet, waiting to see which way the wind blows hoping to pin their flag to the winning side, neither the tories or labour are favouring "no brexit" as a policy. In fact it is well down the list of options for both parties.
MSP is wrong, no brexit is certainly above no deal brexit for both parties. Though they may hide behind a referendum rather than actually doing the right thing directly.
On what evidence?
Well, "bored of Brexit" seems to be the government's current spin line to get public support for her withdrawal agreement… the BBC are going strong on that this morning anyway (good obedient BBC). As if negotions end, rather than start, in March next year.
MSP, on the evidence that everyone agrees no deal brexit is insane. There's only a rump of impotent windbags in the tory party pushing this outcome, and maybe 3-4 nutty labour "mavericks".
No surprise to hear the BBC pushing the "get it over with" angle. Of course this deal doesn't get over with it, it could at best be described as end of the beginning but there would be years of negotiation to follow, with accompanying extensions to the transition.
The whole thing has been insane from the start, that hasn't stopped both parties going balls deep to support brexit. Knowing it is insane hasn't counted so far, there is no evidence of a change of tack, I wish there were.
I suppose it was inevitable that May would make it all about immigration again. Turning on foreigners was a favourite trick of hers as home secretary (took focus away from her other cockups)
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> I'm not sure how the gammon will take it, for a while after the ref they were telling us that it was all about sovereignty, not xenophobia.</span>
May's problem is that her red lines at the start were always a fantasy, if she'd been honest then, there wouldn't be the kick back now.
But then if both parties had been honest about the pros & cons of immigration years ago we'd not be up this particular creek.
Right on cue, Keir Starmer just now saying he'd want an extension to A50 if May's agreement is vote down.
Which is a step on the road towards a withdrawal....
But then if both parties had been honest about the pros & cons of immigration years ago we’d not be up this particular creek.
I am not convinced a lot of people would be listening or care what anyone told them about the benefits of immigration, they just want less foreigners in the country.
Which is a step on the road towards a withdrawal
No it isn't, it is just another fantasy selling unicorns as a solution. The EU have made it quite clear this is the deal, they will not renegotiate, it is about time leaders of all parties started to give options based on reality, instead of trying to mislead the electorate with unobtainable promises.
Right on cue, Keir Starmer just now saying he’d want an extension to A50 if May’s agreement is vote down.
Going off every single previous labour statement, I'll listen out for Jezza saying the polar opposite by this afternoon
MSP, the EU have made it clear this is the deal based on May's red lines. If the govt (of whatever type) dropped its opposition to ending FoM there would of course be different options. I would also bet a large sum on the EU agreeing to some sort of extension (though they might insist on it being a withdrawal) in order to at least allow a new govt to form. Several EU leaders have already said they would for a new referendum.