[Closed] Economic Growth?*

figures are out - flatlined is a good description 0.2 % growth. Growth forecast for the year downgraded again. there is no alternative from Osbourne. cable wants to pump some money into the economy.

So is that a double dip? I was promised one.

TUC: "Cuts are hurting but not working"

TUC: "Cuts are hurting but not working"

Hard to draw any other conclusion TBH

How many times will we hear -

Its all labour's fault
Its the long-term growth we need to be looking at
Considering whats going on in Greece and potentially in US we're in a strong position

So is that a double dip? I was promised one.

Plan A hasn't really brought the country out of the first one... thank god George has been working on Plan B... oh.

How many times will we hear -

Its all labour's fault

By my reckoning, another 3 or 4 years until the next election that's around 1400 days so let's go for a nice round 10,000 more times 😉

Well I'll tell you what I haven't heard for a while...

"We're all in this together"

There you go clubber 😉

[img] [/img]

Ah well.. at least it's ticking over.. however I agreed with Labour's approach at the time and I agree with it now.

it's all down to an extra bank holiday, a warm April and the Olympics 😕

flatlined is a good description 0.2 % growth

0.2% is "flat", but -0.2% is the end of the world recession eh TJ?

Do you round your height down as well? 😉

Office for National Stats are blaming The Royal Wedding, an unseasonably hot Spring and the Japanese tsunami for a bit of a dip.

Winter was too bloody cold. Spring was too bloody hot.

This is feeling a bit like Goldi-frickin'-locks and the flipping bears.

0.2% is quite a bit lower than we were told...and "No alternatives" Osbourne is clutching at straws.

The problem is no-one really knows what the answers are. We are in a mess (as is much of the Westernised world) and these people are doing what they think is right, just as Labour did what they thought was right beforehand.

It is all starting to sound a bit 'dog ate my homework, honest sir!' isn't it?

I'm predicting the wrong kind of leaves for Autumns appalling figures

cant see how the olympics could be supressing growth. It's keeping me very busy indeed...

'dog ate my homework, honest sir!'

Sorry sir, I dropped the economy in a puddle on the way to school and it's ruined!

🙂

the low growth means even with his cuts, tax in does not equal expenditure.

I still maintain that in years to come, people from all sides of the political divide will celebrate Brown and give him the credit he deserves for saving this country.

I don't think Osbourne will be discussed in quite the same way.

me

me

me

Typical tory...

Apparently his latest proposal to stimulate economic growth is to abolish the 50% tax rate for high earners. Brilliant idea George! Totally inspired! That's bound to sort it all out! You're an economic genius!! Truly a guru

*headbutts keyboard*

I don't think Osbourne will be discussed in quite the same way.

Au contraire, I fancy people will be talking about Osbourne with disgust for [i]many[/i] years to come.

me

Quite right darcy. The Olympics have been created solely to feather my nest.

During the ‘big build’ on the Olympic
Park and Athletes’ Village, more than
30,000 workers have been employed
so far, with many people working
through the supply chain up and
down the UK. This exceeds our
original forecast.
So far, over 426 apprentices have
worked on the project, exceeding our
target of 350, and more than 1,400
previously unemployed people have
been placed into work through the
Olympic Delivery Authority’s (ODA)
‘Jobs, Skills, Futures’ Brokerage
programmes.
The ODA has now successfully placed
3,451 people into traineeships,
apprenticeships and work placements.
As a result, this was the first initiative of
its kind to be awarded National Skills
Academy for Construction (NSAfC)
status. The ODA has also encouraged
its contractors to pay the London Living
Wage and promote diversity among
their workforces, improving recruitment
practices within the construction industry.

To fuel the fire!

How do folk on here suggest the problem should be solved?

Genuine question - in that the problem(s) are far from just the UK...

Raise taxes, pump money into the economy, thus stimulating growth. grow our way out not cut the way out.

This means paying people to do things not to sit about on the dole

Quite right darcy. The Olympics have been created solely to feather my nest.

And the rest of your post...thanks for making my point for me.

And I haven't time to read the link. Pressé if you're not too busy thanks.

The banks needed sorting out too. We've bailed them out, we own half the ****ers, and yet they're still a law unto themselves

They will only lend money to business at massively prohibitive interest rates, despite base rates having been 0.5% for 2 years. How are business's supposed to expand, grow and subsequently employ people in this situation

They're making money for themselves while strangling the 'real' economy. Someone in government needs to get a grip. Fat chance of it being a tory 🙄

How many times will we hear -

Its all labour's fault

cut VAT to 15%.
Increase basic rate of tax to 21-22%
Reduce contribution to IMF
Phased employment sponsorship programmes - a bit like a negative National Insurance premium. Private, not public sector, companies paid upto 25% of wage and with 0% NI to add to workforce.

Ideally Id like to see a tax on naked financial derivatives but it's very hard to do in isolation as banks simply move that function to a tax free environment so there'd be no net gain in tax revenue (actually a fall in tax as operational profits from such activities would be offshore).

How do folk on here suggest the problem should be solved?

By not making cuts, and letting growth come back - then making cuts when things are more secure.

You know in hospital dramas when they say they can't operate on the patient because he's too weak..? This is like that.

Oh and a bit more tax on the rich folk would help too. But only a bit, so they don't get fed up and take their money elsewhere.

They will only lend money to business at massively prohibitive interest rates, despite base rates having been 0.5% for 2 years

That's cos they are scared they won't get their money back, cos of the rocky times. Catch 22 of course, but there you are.

Pressé

Cassis OK? 😉

Praecis: case studies of people who've benefited from the apprenticeship and employment sponsorship programmes.

TandemJeremy - Member

Raise taxes, pump money into the economy, thus stimulating growth. grow our way out not cut the way out.

I don't understand your thinking. By raising taxes would you not be further increasing the incentives for a company to outsource UK based services as well as increasing the cost of our exports, making our factories less competitive against those based abroad?

Also as a direct response in the short term at least people would have less money in their pockets to spend, hurting retail (one area which has actually seen growth - has it not?)

There is an excellent analysis from Paul Mason on his Twitter:

1) Low but services are bouncing back; still leaves UK lowest growing of Western big econs

2) this is essentially product of falling real wages: not just inflation vs wage rises, but loads of downgrading in NHS, (BBC!)...combined with massive paying down of debt by consumers fearing moment mortgage payments rise and/or lose their jobs

3) Therefore the main impact of public sector self-inflicted recession yet to be felt. Nightmare for Coalition is what happens when it is...

4) However, for now the Coalition's rebalancing story is there in embryo: no consumer led recovery; forces switch to investment - BUT....it may need an extra bump from corporate tax cuts. And/or QEIII as per Vince on Sunday

5) UK looks like it will gradually claw its way out of near double-dip only to be flattened again in 2012, 13, etc by fiscal tightening.

6) The politics of #ukgdp - there is no economic feelgood factor and will not be for some time (years?); yet...

7) Argument within coalition is Vince vs George: but over timing of further monetary and fiscal (tax cuts) stimulus.

8) Labour strategists know their chance lies not in clever fiscal ideas (alt budgets etc) but in riding the wave of pain

9) However... still only embryo of rebalancing: absent an industrial policy, in world of industrial policy mortal kombat = no trousers

10) OBR predictions? Mmm... (cough) ... ahem. Er. Danger of becoming a bit unanchored to reality. But were are BoE's ...

Number 9 is the most significant imho. There is lots of talk about restructuring the economy and growing manufacturing, but no plan how that will be done.

Oops...spelling fail!

I know the limpics benefit everyone, I was merely pulling the piss...but you flipping knew that anyway.

gullible isnt in the dictionary.

What cuts are these you guys are talking about? We're still spending like sailers on shore leave.

Unfashionable as it may be to say it, on STW or anywhere else, every morning I thank my lucky stars that we have pretty competent government led by a guy who actually looks suited to the job.

every morning I thank my lucky stars that we have pretty competent government led by a guy who actually looks suited to the job.

Which country is it that you live in McBoo? Sounds great. Unfortunately, here we're lumbered with this idiot Call-me-Dave and George Osbourn

How do folk on here suggest the problem should be solved?

I dunno, what would it take to get you out spending again without worrying too much about where the next quid is coming from?

I love fraser Nelson. Id have his babies if he'd let me:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/7122543/what-you-need-to-know-ahead-of-tomorrows-growth-figures.thtml

More graphs and tables that you can shake a stick at.
[img] [/img]

post fell in the hole.

[i]Number 9 is the most significant imho. There is lots of talk about restructuring the economy and growing manufacturing, but no plan how that will be done[/i]

production is in recession according to [url= http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp0711.pdf ]this[/url]

post fell in the hole.

I wonder if Gideon was hoping the eco figures would be the 40th piece of news this morning? 🙂

🙂

McBoo - don't think you can just waltz on in and claim the role of forum idiot with a post as silly as that.

I hate to drag Obama into this cause I've got to admit, I love the guy, it makes my N.London liberal soul tingle every time I see a black guy in the Oval Office. But he's really making a pig's ear of the US economy, trying to spend his way out recession and generally following the Keynesian playbook.

Problem for him (and us) is that there is a flipside to Keynes saying that the government should spend like crazy in tough years, that when the economy is purring along you have to pay down your national debt.

Bush fought two wars and gave the top 1% a massive tax cut, Blair and Brown gave everyone in the public sector a pay rise and in the EMA started paying children to go to school.

You have to live within your means.

McBoo - don't think you can just waltz on in and claim the role of forum idiot with a post as silly as that.

Thanks for the insult. Totally called for.

You've not answered my question though. Where are you based McBoo? Frankfurt, Dussledorf or Berlin?

LOL @ Binners.

McBoo - sorry I didn't mean to be offensive... I'm more than willing to share this window that I'm licking with you 🙂

You have to live within your means

Two ways of doing that tho. Reduce spending OR increase income.

Increasing income can be done two ways too.

So stating the obvious isn't helpful 🙂

Blair and Brown gave everyone in the public sector a pay rise and in the EMA started paying children to go to school.

But don't forget, Gordon had solved "boom then bust".

Oh...

If more people had bought Hope stems and seatposts instead of Thompson we might not be in this mess...

I wonder if the 0.2% is somewhat flattered by certain sectors. Because I think many of us working for small and medium enterprises in the private sector have seen shocking reductions.

Scandinavian countries have high taxes, a higher standard of living and higher wellbeing. The cuts in the UK are all about shock doctrine to reduce the size of the state and emphasise private rather than public goods. There will be a point, however, when Tory backbenchers start getting jittery about the next election and Gideon will suddenly see the need for a bit of economic stimulus.

Buy a time machine and go back and stop Gordy selling all your gold for $250 an ounce!

Wow, Stoner, that article has some pretty loaded graphs in it. The one about 'just who is getting these jobs that are being created?':

The Labour Force Survey data suggests that foreign-born workers account for 81 per cent of the employment growth:

[img] [/img]

That looks bad, but it's actually just growth in numbers - both you will notice are positive, and we don't know what the real numbers are from looking at that.

Really smacks of right-wing sh*t stirring, but I am only half way do the page so far.

LHS - Member
Buy a time machine and go back and stop Gordy selling all your gold for $250 an ounce!

Seriously? That old chestnut. What about all the extra money the government got (well above market expectations) when they sold the 3G licenses?

[i]If more people had bought Hope stems and seatposts instead of Thompson we might not be in this mess...[/i]

when Hope make one as nice as a Thomson

Buy a time machine and go back and stop Gordy selling all your gold for $250 an ounce!

OI! Its not Gordons fault!! He was seduced by slick advertising. Who wouldn't be?

[img] [/img]

Oh and a bit more tax on the rich folk would help too.

I'd like to see how much of the government expenditure is going on the cost of increasing unemployment and indeed the individual and social costs of unemployment aren't even considered.

BillMC - Member
I'd like to see how much of the government expenditure is going on the cost of increasing unemployment and indeed the individual and social costs of unemployment aren't even considered.

In the last Budget there was £194bn for social protection, and £32bn for personal social services.

Scandinavian countries have high taxes

yes - I sat opposite a Scandinavian business woman on the train once moaning about how it was borderline whether it was worth the hard work of running a business when taxes were that high.

Oh and a bit more tax on the rich folk would help too.

I thought we were trying to encourage economic growth?

Doesn't seem to be damaging growth in the German economy.

Yeah the German economy is a bit different though isn't it. They just happen to have a good line in manufacturing half of Europe's cars. Probably down to the way the businesses have been run in the past I expect.

Not something we can suddenly pick up, I feel.

Exactly, the low tax ideology is just short term politics, its far more complicated to establish long term growth, but reducing taxes for a quick fix does seem to carry long term problems.

Yeah the German economy is a bit different though isn't it. They just happen to have a good line in manufacturing half of Europe's cars. Probably down to the way the businesses have been run in the past I expect.

Try as I might, I can't see any reason why our economy diverged so much from Germany's. Hmmmmmmmm....

[img] [/img]

[img] [/img]

5th - when were we on strike in the aftermath of WW2?

its actually that the profits of our very profitable manufacturing were taken out of the businesses by the owners not reinvested - look at the history of the british motorcycle manufactures for the classic case.

Huge dominance in world markets, short termism by the bosses refusing to invest in new plant and or designs, other countries - mainly Japan did and thus took the market away - while lord Docker had a gold plated Rolls the bikes were being built on 1030s machines in the 1960s

Goes back to the aftermath of ww2. Germany was rebuilt as a manufacturing superpower with US cash. We were broke and on strike.

No, it go's back to the late 70's early 80's, Germany somehow managed to form a consensus between the workers and the employers/owners for greater mutual benefit.

You have to live within your means.

Oh and a bit more tax on the rich folk would help too.
I thought we were trying to encourage economic growth?

yes - I sat opposite a Scandinavian business woman on the train once moaning about how it was borderline whether it was worth the hard work of running a business when taxes were that high

Goes back to the aftermath of ww2

Not convinced. We had a car industry, but the cars were crap so no-one bought them.

The question is, why? I think part of it is down to the work ethic and focus they bring to tasks. Less time worrying about who was getting what benefits and pay, and more time thinking about cars.

did anyone see mandlespawn on newsnight lastnight
was funny because every time paxo said, didnt labour **** up this hed immediately say no! but then go on to admit that they should have done xyz differently - a clever man but a massive ego
anyway he was making the point that our only hope of competing is to increase funding into science/maths/engineering education as they lead to the kind of high value pr high quality products we can reasonably expect to create, unfortunately the current government is doing its best to decimate science funding at the moment

Can somebody explain why growth is a good thing? I can't help wondering on a finite planet with finite resources, how can everyone's economy grow?

At the moment, we need growth to keep roofs over people's heads. In the long term we need economic growth without manufacturing for the reasons you suggest.

its actually that the profits of our very profitable manufacturing were taken out of the businesses by the owners not reinvested

That's because the unions would refuse to use any new equipment that would make an improvement to efficiency/quality.

molgrips - Member

Goes back to the aftermath of ww2

Not convinced. We had a car industry, but the cars were crap so no-one bought them.

Lack of investment - the bosses took all teh money 50s and 60s

The question is, why? I think part of it is down to the work ethic and focus they bring to tasks. Less time worrying about who was getting what benefits and pay, and more time thinking about cars.

This was the issue in the 70s and 80s - the workers had seen the bosses take all teh money so decided they wanted a share.

What actually was needed was investment in new plant and designs. Indeed the designs were there but the investment was not.

[img] [/img]

I_did_dab

I dont actually think growth is a good thing for the reasons you ponder. But it wins votes so thats what the democratic world wants, thats what short term busineses, banks etc all want.

If we all lived for say 200 years, we would probably be happy with zero growth.

We can only grow at the expense of rescources and by borrowings to go up.

Its a bit like using your credit card to buy stuff that makes you happy, ignoring the fact you dont earn enough to pay off the card.