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No problem. Unfortunately it meant we lost a reply as I couldn’t edit what ever broke the code.
The transitioning into an interesting and decently paid part time job, say a day a week, looks like my preferred option currently.
After 3 months away from the corporate executive hamster wheel I don’t think I want to jump back in, but would like to have some income coming in to stretch out my cash and savings, and then reduce my monthly pension drawdown a bit.
What types of part time jobs are people doing, if in similar situations?
Bike mechanic would top my list.
1 day parcel delivery for amazon, using own car. £200 minus fuel.
1 day parcel delivery for amazon, using own car. £200 minus fuel.
and insurance. Pretty please
And it's going to effect millions of people caught in the rental poverty trap. Probably paying a minimum contribution works pension and are happily oblivious to the fact that it's probably no where near enough to put the heating on, cover the rental and put food on the table
its weird but tbh it was only when I started looking at my pension I actually did wonder how it worked if you didn’t own a house.
Which goes to show how well off you can be without even being aware, would have been a rude awakening if I was a renter 🙁
Anyone else looking at their pension funds and thinking the current run isn't backed up by anything of substance and we are due a market adjustment?
Maybe not imminently but in the next few months or so.
My 1 year growth is around 16% and 2 of my ETFs have performed amazingly well over a 4 year period, up around 80% These numbers are not sustainable and I'm considering moving a big lump into Gold and possibly bonds.
At 56 I really don't want £50k knocked off the bottom line
Tricky one, i'm kinda hoping it carries on for another 12 months as i'll take £150k out of mine, maybe even £200k. That way it's tax free and not losing anything if the market tanks.
Anyone else looking at their pension funds and thinking the current run isn't backed up by anything of substance and we are due a market adjustment?
Maybe not imminently but in the next few months or so.
My 1 year growth is around 16% and 2 of my ETFs have performed amazingly well over a 4 year period, up around 80% These numbers are not sustainable and I'm considering moving a big lump into Gold and possibly bonds.
At 56 I really don't want £50k knocked off the bottom line
yes. And expecting that bonds might be affected too.
Pesky as I’d not like a ‘correction’ like the Truss-Kwarteng debacle, or the sub-prime event, or the dot-com bubble again.
There seem to be a few concerning things with the current (US) market.
Anyone else looking at their pension funds and thinking the current run isn't backed up by anything of substance and we are due a market adjustment?
There seem to be a few concerning things with the current (US) market.
Not least that 36% of S&P 500 is in just 7 shares,
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL/GOOG)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Even if you're in a global tracker US makes up 50% of it so 18% is still in just those 7 stocks.
I am thinking the same but not sure bonds will be much safer given recent performance, and I have no option to move in to gold. As mentioned above with so many funds invested heavily in the S+p I am not sure what the best options are. If I move my money out of American funds and America tanks then it will affect everyone else so don't feel European funds etc are any safer. I feel a drop is coming and think I might need to suck it up.
From my point of view IU know what I have in terms of savings, mortgage, pensions etc. and have asked for a professional to advise on when my partner and I can retire. Mrs C wants to retire now and I think she can, but she wants to see it in writing. How are people deciding on what to do and how much are you paying professionals for the advice. And any recommendations for someone to help would be great. For reference the professional is suggesting 3-7K for the overall advice, with 3K being we'll tell you what to do and you do it and the 7K we'll do it all for you. So, trying to gauge is that steep or not? Pension pots around 500K and savings 150K for info.
charlie - firstly, choose your professional. Most people refer to IFAs but while they have a focus on accumulating assets it appears that you are past that phase and while an IFA may be OK for your needs, I would target someone who bills themselves more as a financial planner as they have a focus on how to access (and in what order) your savings, or de-cumulation as the jargon goes. Then look at the client agreement - many want to charge for the upfront advice but then get you on some sort of ongoing annual agreement, often based as a % of your assets, and that can add up over time. A lot depends on how comfortable you are managing your own affairs, but you can find people who will work on a hourly basis for the advice while you do the admin. £3k for a face to face interview, a spreadsheet and some suggestions is about 0.5% of you assets is probably about right, but other on here will have more recent experience of charges than me.
For those worried about stock markets’ levels I posted the below on one of the investment threads:
History suggests that “time in the market” (riding out the wobbles) works better than “timing the market” (not only selling at market highs but also getting in at market lows) but sometimes things make you think hmmm. The recent deals between OpenAI and AMD (buying chips off AMD and also taking a stake in AMD) and OpenAI and Nvidia (buying chips off Nvidia and Nvidia taking a stake in OpenAI) have a degree of circularity to them which is very reminiscent of the late 90s tech boom and very much associated with previous stock market bubbles. It may turn out to be a false alarm but if things do go pop these deals will be held up as evidence it had all got out of control.
These numbers are not sustainable and I'm considering moving a big lump into Gold and possibly bonds.
Isn't gold at its highest ever level? (Nearly $4000 per once!)
Doesn't seem a wise time to buy...
Anyone else looking at their pension funds and thinking the current run isn't backed up by anything of substance and we are due a market adjustment?
Maybe not imminently but in the next few months or so.
My 1 year growth is around 16% and 2 of my ETFs have performed amazingly well over a 4 year period, up around 80% These numbers are not sustainable and I'm considering moving a big lump into Gold and possibly bonds.
At 56 I really don't want £50k knocked off the bottom line
For the S&P500 the Shiller PE ratio is at its 2nd highest level in history. The highest was at the peak of the dotcom boom and it's not far off that now. These valuations have never proven sustainable at any point in history. It looks ripe for a 20%+ crash to me, but I've been saying that for years and it keeps proving me wrong, so...
Pension pots around 500K and savings 150K for info.
if that is between you both, depending on how far away from state pension will be a key factor. If you are 60 or older, no mortgage, no dependents and living a comfortable modest life it could be quite doable, for example
Isn't gold at its highest ever level? (Nearly $4000 per once!)
Doesn't seem a wise time to buy.
- Indeed, but so are the shares he's is planning to sell to buy the gold, so it's not such an issue
- That's exactly what I was told on my gold punt thread a few months back. .. and it's gone up about a third since then.
yes, buy it now it is at a high and above fair value, what could go wrong ?
From the other thread.
. It looks ripe for a 20%+ crash to me, but I've been saying that for years and it keeps proving me wrong, so...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance
4 years from Alan Greenspan to the dotcom crash
Your reminder that time in the market beats timing the market - you only in trouble if you have to sell out during a crash...
Your reminder that time in the market beats timing the market - you only in trouble if you have to sell out during a crash...
Is posting images broken?
I was trying to post this:
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I guess it’s a judgement call if you retire with a mix of cash and a drawdown pension in the waiting. Do you live off the cash for a year or so, or at least until it’s pretty much done, leaving the pension to gather interest and continue to grow (without additional contributions), or do you take the 25% tax free out earlier on and add it to your cash buffer…
I'm not suggesting that this is good advice but I saw a video this morning, if I understood it right, there is an option to buy an annuity at say 60 that would run to 68 and your state pension, then they give you back a big lump to choose your next option.
Like I say, might not be the best idea but its an option I wasn't aware of.
I don't agree with the time in the markets thing. Some market timing things have helped our finances cosiderably as I'll elaborate below. I'm cautious and only buy into things I understand which has meant I've missed some "opportunities" such as bitcoin/crypto because I still don't have any faith in "owning" a bit of code. As noted by others above it does feel a bit Spring 2000 again, I think there's a good chance of being able to buy back in at these levels sometime in the future so I'm not bothered by being light at present. I might be wrong, I'm not worried. We're small players - a soon to retire teacher and stay at home dad with the modest wealth we have generated by a business in the 90s.
Madame sold a house in early 89 just before a crash (people around us thought we were daft to sell but it avoided a nasty negative equity situation). We bought into another country in the market lows that followed.
In Spring 2000 we converted a share portfolio into the house I'm sitting in against the advice of several financial "experts" who thought I should take a mortgage and keep the shares. It would have taken nearly 20 years for that share portfolio to recover and some of it never would have.
I've bought in dips in the market fairly regularly but without conviction over the last 23 years and have just sold a chunk to buy a property. Buying the dips has resulted in better gains than if I'd dumped a lot in at a random point. I'd rather be in (useful) property than ETFs right now.
If I'd just just sat in the markets I'd be poorer and I'd have had more to worry about due to an aggregate higher exposure. Currently even if the markets drop 50% I can just shrug because my exposure is so low.
In terms of the other debates on this thread I haven't joined in with I'm something of a fan of annuities. OK they're a bad deal if you die quickly but you aren't going to spend time worrying about the loss, you'll be dead. My parents made the choice of taking a bigger lump sum and a smaller annuity which by the time they reached 90 they could see hadn't been the best choice.
No idea what went wrong on that last post, at bottom of page 11, format all over the place..🙄
Maybe some of the expert market timers we have on this thread can tell us whether Friday's dip was a blip or the start of something bigger? Or is it one of those where the wisdom only comes out in hindsight?
For people who worry they are exposed to the Mag 7 there are plenty of alternative ETFs to switch into instead of bailing out completely. For example, XWCS is a World Consumer Staples ETF is seen as a defensive play and has 58% of the fund spread across these 10 holdings - Walmart, Costco, P&G, Coke, Philip Morris, Nestle, Pepsi, Unilever, BAT and L'Oreal. Energy ETFs are another option.
I don't agree with the time in the markets thing.
Not sure its Warren Buffets entire investment strategy. But it seems to be panning out for him OK. Hes got lots of those throw away quotes attributed to him and taken as a whole the do add up to a fairly sensible, slightly conservative approach to investing. Re your good fortune, great that those timings worked in your favour but riding the roller coaster does come with risk. My dad lost big on an endowment .mortgage, which 12 months before were the golden ticket.
Maybe some of the expert market timers we have on this thread can tell us whether Friday's dip was a blip or the start of something bigger? Or is it one of those where the wisdom only comes out in hindsight?
This is like the 4th time Trump has done this now, people have short memories... it's just another market manipulation for/by the ultra rich...its always on a friday as markets close over the weekend.
I'm supprised the markets reacted as much as they did to be honest.
...an unknown, one day old account shorted bitcoin 30mins before trumps anouncement, and pocketed a tidy $88 million. That's just one transaction.
Good timing? don't make me laugh.
The game is rigged, all we can hope to do as retail investors/traders is ride the waves and keep our heads above the water line... the real money, the uninmaginable volume of money that can fix entire countries, even global healthcare, social issues, etc, is being made at the top table, and they don't share.
So yes it's just a blip, ride it out and don't sell. If you do anything, buy.
Or is it one of those where the wisdom only comes out in hindsight?
Well obviously yes. You never know if it's the right choice the day you make it, but at least it's a choice rather than burying your head in the sand and hoping which is what what the "time in the markets" approach amounts to.
You don't have to time perfectly, you can start to lighten up as you see value falling away and go back in progressively as prices look more attractive after market falls. Bookmark this page and we can see if I'm right about being able to buy back in cheaper at some point in the future. If STW survives that long. Because things never stay still and each time the markets take a dip some of the real economy drowns as people draw in the purse strings.
Maybe some of the expert market timers we have on this thread can tell us whether Friday's dip was a blip or the start of something bigger?
The mumblings about an upcoming market correction have been around for at least a week. I decided to take my profit from my ss isa which probably takes a week to process. So hopefully it doesn't drop too far before it lands in my account.
I'll continue to invest in my SS ISA as the dip continues.
No chance of retiring until another 180 pay days have occurred. 🤔😭
There's regularly a dip on Fridays. As the budget approaches, there's almost certain to be drop to some degree. I've sold stuff high hoping to avoid a bit of a fall and buy into passive funds when they are cheaper. This isn't a recommendation, obviously.
Or is it one of those where the wisdom only comes out in hindsight?
Well obviously yes. You never know if it's the right choice the day you make it, but at least it's a choice rather than burying your head in the sand and hoping which is what what the "time in the markets" approach amounts to.
You don't have to time perfectly, you can start to lighten up as you see value falling away and go back in progressively as prices look more attractive after market falls. Bookmark this page and we can see if I'm right about being able to buy back in cheaper at some point in the future. If STW survives that long. Because things never stay still and each time the markets take a dip some of the real economy drowns as people draw in the purse strings.
I don't think it's burying your head in the sand, it's about your approach to risk. If long term market returns are good enough to achieve your goals then taking a risk on market timing is unnecessary.
I'm sure you'll be able to buy back at lower prices given current sky high valuations. But the question is how much of the bull run have you missed by being out of the market?
At the end of the day leveraged property has smashed everything else in terms of returns in this country over the last 30 years, so anyone who was fortunate enough to benefit from that has done well. Pure luck rather than judgement though.
I follow stock markets but I wouldn’t want to make a prediction as to their future direction. I’m of the “time in the market” school of thought but there does seem to be a greater than normal number of usually sane commentators muttering about the high level of shares. As I noted earlier, some of the deal making in the AI sector is enough to raise your eyebrows, but then again, I’m not really involved so I would think that. Every severe correction has a different build up and root cause although many bubbles have stories which look eerily similar - good idea makes some money for pioneers which in turn attracts more money and investors which develops into geared up speculation on things which are tenuously connected to the original idea.
For those who think they can time markets....the 1987 Crash was one of the most severe sharp corrections in history and yet even today you’ll not find an agreed cause of why it fell when it did other than “markets had had a good run and things felt a little frothy”. The extent of the fall was exacerbated by some portfolio structures in place at the time (in a similar way to the Truss crash - that correction was logical but the extent of it was magnified by certain things in place in portfolios). Because there was no stand out identifiable risk factor at large in 1987 it was pretty much an unforeseen event and a lot of money was lost in short order. And yet, despite the severity of the fall and the amount of money lost, if you look at a graph of the long term history of the stock market this correction is nothing more than a minor ripple.
Having the foresight to sell ahead of a big correction or the nerves to invest cash after a big fall is harder than it sounds but I wouldn’t blame anyone who has an identifiable need for money in the next six months or has made more money than they “should” have done in recent months for choosing to harvest some cash now "just in case”.
But the question is how much of the bull run have you missed by being out of the market?
None so far, I lightened up at the March highs just before the Trump tarifs spooked the markets, and knowing I'd need a lot of it within seven months. The stuff I sold is at almost exactly the same level this morning. If anything I feel over invested at present, I'll have a look today. I could have bought back in in anticipation of a rally after the initial spook but that's with hindsight, as it was I was happy to have reduced exposure and still feel the same way. The markets have long periods in which I feel confident they aren't stupidly over valued and unlikely to crash, why stay in for the short periods I think risk is high. No question mark, that's just the way I do it.
I agree with Blackhat about having the nerve to go in hard again after a fall. I've found that harder than selling before a fall. I tend to go back in progressively so don't get the full benefit of the bounce.
None so far, I lightened up at the March highs just before the Trump tarifs spooked the markets, and knowing I'd need a lot of it within seven months. The stuff I sold is at almost exactly the same level this morning.
You must have had some slightly poor stocks then if that's the case. Almost all mine are a shit ton higher than they were in march. As mentioned previously I'm up close to 30% on gold but even the stuff I left in is up about 15 or 20% from pre trump.
Yup, some of the funds I've kept have done better but not 15-20%, some have stagnated, one has lost a bit: generally the less ethical sectorially and geographically the better they've done. 🙁 The under performance has been small cap France and Europe.
I'm about as far from knowledgeable as you can be, but got spooked a couple of weeks ago and moved 50% of my Vanguard ISA into cash. Will probably shift a fair portion of it into a cash ISA in due course. Rest of it and pensions will stay as they are and hope for the best. The ISA has done remarkably well but it's not going to last forever
I'm about as far from knowledgeable as you can be, but got spooked a couple of weeks ago and moved 50% of my Vanguard ISA into cash. Will probably shift a fair portion of it into a cash ISA in due course. Rest of it and pensions will stay as they are and hope for the best. The ISA has done remarkably well but it's not going to last forever
So did you leave the cash in the ISA, or withdraw it?
Fixed Term ISAs look interesting for those who are risk averse. With £400K, you can get £25k per year for 25 yrs and still get £100K back at the end (so value of £725k ish). Obviously that's not index linked, but your state pension will be once it kicks in.
@boxelder I've left it as cash within the ISA for the time being, will look at either transferring some or all into a cash ISA or dribbling it back into investments when I feel a bit more confident
No need for the administrative hassle of moving ISA wrappers - especially as you may well reverse your decision at some point and the admin delay may mean that point passes before you can act - buy a short dated gilt instead or find a money market fund.
So this morning it looks like Friday was blip:
And we're now left with reporting season, borrowing against invoices, random trade tarifs, endebted governments, AI bubble, war, cheap energy, gravity defying p/E ratios, low interest rates and bond yields (Europe) and a host of other factors to weigh up. From a simple supply and demand point of view there are still plenty of people rich enough to have a surplus to invest and chase value with, and drive the markets. The problem being that squirreling money away is bad for the economy and bad for the companies they are squirreling money away in (mainly a japanese and European issue).
Good luck with your guessing, I made my decisions in March and sleep well. 🙂