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I know it won’t be anywhere near a majority of people, but a shift for a good few I think is on the cards.
I was planning it anyway at some point in the future, now I'm being made redundant it's definitely happening. The amount of money I spend on getting out of the city to enjoy the countryside every month is more than the pay drop I need to take by finding work in the countryside.
I'm not the only one thinking like this out of my city-dwelling friends.
I suspect in a few months it will be not just be fighting for the right to work from home but fighting for the right to work and have a home. There's been a massive rise in union membership amongst teachers. Many people are beginning to realise only they will fight their corner. We've already seen the strength of the 'opposition' to a completely incompetent chaotic open goal. It's in the workplace and communities where any significant opposition will emerge.
The government seems clueless but are content to chance pushing people back into the workplace and see what happens. When the matters hit the fan there'll be all sorts of knee-jerk reactions but always they will be siding with the interests of business, landlords, Brexit, Trump, and the forces of law and order will be commanded to actively discourage people from protesting.
I suspect in a few months it will be not just be fighting for the right to work from home but fighting for the right to work and have a home.
This is very true. Mass redundancies and pay cuts are on the horizon and those will push a lot of people over the edge. Today is my last official day at my old work, redundancy is tomorrow. I've been looking for other permanent work and I'm really struggling to find anything that is paying more than minimum wage. Any job that was up in the £10-12 p/h range has suddenly dropped to the bare minimum with virtually no permanent contracts for the full 37.5/39 hours out there. They're all minimum wage with a max of 25-30 hours, the vast majority are 1 day a week guaranteed with the rest overtime if it's available. Companies are very reluctant to take on full time staff right now, costs are being cut to the bone and they want to be able to dump a load of staff costs if we go back down into a lockdown or business takes a dive as everyone is skint. This means that anyone in a job is in a poor negotiating position for arguing for any pay rise, wanting to work from home when the company wants you in the office or asking for any other perk or flexibility. They know that for every job they advertise they will have the choice of picking the best available and paying them rock bottom wages from a big pool.
People are going to have to choose between working all the hours available in a minimum wage job just to keep a roof over their heads or being on benefits if they get made redundant. If you are lucky enough to keep your job then don't expect any pay rise or perks for the next few years, more likely they will both be eroded. The job market is vicious right now and it's only going to get worse.
If you are lucky enough to keep your job then don’t expect any pay rise or perks for the next few years, more likely they will both be eroded. The job market is vicious right now and it’s only going to get worse.
This gang of Disaster Capitalist shysters can’t believe their luck. We’re going to have mass unemployment (that wasn’t our fault, guv!) just as a no deal Brexit means they’re free from all EU regulation and get to take a hatchet to workers rights.
Don’t expect sick pay, holiday pay, maternity leave or the minimum wage to be around by this time next year as part of any new employment package. The race to the (totally unregulated) bottom starts in earnest on January 1st 2021. And they can’t ****ing wait!
The middle classes are about to have done to them what the Thatcherites did to the working class in the 80’s. And they’re going to come back for seconds on the working class just for good measure.
https://www.ft.com/content/d8eb62ef-a1cb-4597-867b-15a79dbdcd5d/a >
Daz its behind a paywall, can you summarise?
Daz its behind a paywall, can you summarise?
That's annoying, I could read it this morning so assumed it was paywall free as part of their coronavirus coverage. Anyway, the premise was much as we've been discussing. Basically good riddance to the Pret economy and looking forward to more even wealth distribution which will benefit both cities and suburban areas. Cities will benefit from more affordable housing, suburbs/towns will benefit from more local trade, everyone will benefit from less commuting. Everyone's a winner basically, apart from Pret and other food and drink franchises which have homogenised our cities.
If you register with the FT you get a number of articles free each month
I thought it was a good article btw.
A few thoughts about some recent posts:
- should employers share the cost benefits of WFH with their employees; in short and generally, no. Employees gain from reduced or eliminated commuting costs and, possibly, some flexibility around working hours; employers gain from reduced or eliminated office costs.
Increased utility costs for employees is a small cost to accept in return for benefits of WFH.
Attempts by employers to extend the working day by arguing that commuting time is working time is complete bollocks.
- the (partial) demise of Pret and others on the 'high street' is no bad thing; homogeneity meant that high streets had become identikits. This might be an opportunity for differentiation and the re-emergence of local 'character'.
I referred up there ^^^ somewhere to displacement spending; breakfast coffee/lunchtime baguette/after work 'brainstorming' over beers is easily replaced by home brewed coffee/ local produce in a sandwich made with locally baked bread. After work beers were never anything more than an excuse - been there, done that again and again....
- look at your local high streets; if they generally comprise coffee shops, sandwich shops, charity shops, tattoo parlours and wet bars that could change - for the better - if/when we realise that the 'office culture' was nothing more than a con. What does presenteeism prove?
I fully accept that, for some, enforced WFH has been difficult but for the majority and for a large number of major employers it's the future.
If johnson and his motley crew were truly so exercised by WFH they would surely, to take one example, have most HMRC employees back at their office desks; they haven't - most are still WFH.
As for the end of Eat out etc I think it's interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
- their margins can support this?
- they're desperate and trying to stave off the inevitable?
- they're trying to buy 'customer loyalty'?
Have they considered that many of their customers - let's call them 'price tarts' - have no loyalty and will, typically, base their decisions on price?
Remember Groupon and how they destroyed the concept of fair/reasonable price by persuading customers that there was always a deal to be done?
Many retailers were burned by that imported concept.
Probably not going to endear myself to some who are struggling for work and opportunities here.
Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work? don’t think I’ve ever seen as many. Sort of roughly data management FWIW. It may be a response to trying to do more with reduced resources.
Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work? don’t think I’ve ever seen as many. Sort of roughly data management FWIW. It may be a response to trying to do more with reduced resources.
My field of work requires a masters degree, and several more years of on the job training qualifications. There's a fairly fixed pool of people that can do it.
Job adverts are about the same, possibly a bit higher, but the offered salary is much less.
As for the end of Eat out etc I think it’s interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
Some income is better than no income. I suspect for £10 a head they can lay off a member of staff, or squeeze wages/the supply chain enough to substantiate it.
Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work?
Not sure there's an increase in vacancies but I seem to be getting more speculative messages on linkedin asking if I'd be interested in discussing 'opportunities'. I suspect that's a result of decreased fluidity in the market. For obvious reasons people are going to be reluctant to move jobs in the current environment. Even if its shit, for the vast majority its a case of better the devil you know. This might also rile some people who've lost their jobs but I was pretty disappointed not to be made redundant in the recent round. One of my colleagues with similar length of service and role walked away with a year's salary and already has another job. I wonder how many others are hanging on with dreams of a big payoff?
There are loads of jobs going in the third sector. Especially for fundraisers.
When Rishi announces the absolutely enormous cuts to public services in his Autumn Budget, those third sector organisations and charities are going to be expected to plug the now gaping holes.
Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work?
Yes, but I can work remotely... I presume you can in your field as well.
As for the end of Eat out etc I think it’s interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
– their margins can support this?
– they’re desperate and trying to stave off the inevitable?
– they’re trying to buy ‘customer loyalty’?
Have they considered that many of their customers – let’s call them ‘price tarts’ – have no loyalty and will, typically, base their decisions on price?
Will they be open and staffed Mon-Wed anyway?
Are they full (with reduced distanced capacity) Fri - Sun?
Have they decided that a nearly full restaurant at half price is a better earner than a nearly empty restaurant at full price?
Even half price will more than cover the ingredients, so if you can get people in that is more money to pay the staff and the rent.
it means nothing because restaurant chains ALWAYS have offers like this on (to the extent that you're being mugged off if you go to one without a voucher!) So yeah, it's built into their margins. (Not that it guarantees their survival, given their general business models).As for the end of Eat out etc I think it’s interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
Yes, but I can work remotely… I presume you can in your field as well.
It became quite apparent quite quickly to my employer that they get more work done in the same amount of time if I’m WFH.
There are loads of jobs going in the third sector. Especially for fundraisers.
Id noticed that, not my role but the right sector.
deleted. It didn't work.
"employment in the economy as we know it depends on plenty of unnecessary movement and some degree of pretence."
Sounds like the sort of thing we should be stopping even if there weren't a pandemic on really.
Good article from a credible source:
Good article from a credible source:
'Sheep farming will likely go the same way in the whole of the UK'
So not all bad then 🙂
Seriously though, even now the second wave is building and the job losses are mounting, no one seems at all bothered or worried. This paragraphs should scare the living daylights out of everyone, but it won't..
'Covid-19 outbreaks will massively amplify this destruction. I am not going to attempt to guess the scale of corporate insolvency that is likely if there is another lockdown without support this autumn. Exponential collapse is likely. And if there is a spillover into the City - and that is plausible - expect a full scale banking crisis.'
Can you imagine Boris trying to tackle a banking crisis?
Good article from a credible source:
Difficult to argue with any of that, really
It's been painfully obvious for a long time that the Disaster Capitalist zealots want to tear up the post war settlement. They want to completely smash up the existing orderThey want the welfare state gone, the NHS privatised and workers rights and environmental standards,- in fact, any regulation whatsover - torched. They want to take us back to the 1930's
And they know that the only way they can do that is to seize 'the opportunity' to do so whilst in the midst of a crisis of their making.
This year has been grim enough. Next year is going to be on another level entirely
Briefer argument of what is going on:
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1305787185443082240
Good article from a credible source:
Cummings just want chaos as it suits his skill set - drive it like you stole it. An amazing capacity to bullshit in profession at pace is ideal for stealing a march in a catastrophe. I offer how quickly a narrow margin in an advisory referendum became the legally binding will of the people as an example.
From the second they 'won' the referendum, the ratchet was turned progressively so that the idea of what 'Brexit' actually was (always a conveniently vague, undefined concept - something about sovereignty?) became progressively more and more extreme.
I believed right from the start that the people behind this, especially Cummings, would only ever settle for the very hardest of a No Deal Brexit, as far from fearing economic chaos, it's what they actively desired all along. A complete rupture from our trading partners ushering in constitutional and economic anarchy.
It's now inevitable. They're making sure of that. And when the country is plunged into total meltdown, those ****ers will be jumping for joy at the 'opportunities' that are presented to them as a result
It has been suggested that one of the reasons for tearing up the WA was the neo-liberal strictures the EU wished to impose on government intervention in the economy and that Cummings wants that option for his hi-tech fantasies. Plus if half of that account above is true, the absence of intervention will add to the deflation. I think the government know they are standing on a precipice but their whole MO, thinking and dependence on outside interests means that they are simply incapable of developing a strategy or maybe dreaming that it will be sorted 'by the markets'. This is going to be ugly.
That BJ look reminded me of Trump's walk of failure.
I was planning it anyway at some point in the future, now I’m being made redundant it’s definitely happening. The amount of money I spend on getting out of the city to enjoy the countryside every month is more than the pay drop I need to take by finding work in the countryside.
I’m not the only one thinking like this out of my city-dwelling friends.
We're leaving the city as well - wifes company has said they'll only ever go back to three days a week. It's cheaper for us to live up north and for her to get the train in and stay in a hotel two nights a week. We've had enough of the ****ing noise, the crazy rent, av gas getting dumped on us and it costing us a fortune to get into the hills. What's the point of staying in London if the city life is gutted after the lockdown and you spend all day cooped up in your apartment?
BillMC, thanks for article you posted recently; I wish it was a glass half empty perspective but I don't think it is.
It's a sober assessment of where we are and where we're headed.
As you wrote...'This is going to be ugly'.
By the time johnson's supporters wake up to what's happening it will be too late - if it isn't already too late.
Stock markets continuing to rise; same for investment valuations - defying logic.
Tech companies, principally the FAANGs, will continue to do well but the UK doesn't have a tech sector worth talking about; sure, some companies are based here but have overseas owners - ARM being a case in point.
I'm deeply pessimistic about most of the economy.
It looks like the whole of Lancashire (with the somewhat bizarre exception of Blackpool) is due for another lockdown. These local lockdowns are going to signal the end for a lot of small businesses.
Talking to our mates last night who run a nice bar, where they've been uber-careful and done everything by the book, and they've said that if there is a further lockdown then they're calling it a day and winding the business up. Closing the doors for good on a fantastic and very popular business they've put their hearts and souls into over the last few years. But they're lost so much money that further restrictions will just finish them off.
I really feel sorry for them. If you're in the hospitality business at the moment, you must be tearing your hair out. There must be so many small businesses in the same boat. More lockdowns and there are only going to be the Wetherspoons of this world left, and the places that are simply ignoring the restrictions with impunity as there is no enforcement
By the time johnson’s supporters wake up to what’s happening it will be too late – if it isn’t already too late.
I have family members who think Brexit, Johnson and Mogg are the best things that ever happened to the UK - however instead of posting this all over facebook as they were they have completely shut up about it. My guess is they are beginning to wake up.
So Rishi to the rescue today or more half-arsed sticking plasters? Interesting the rumours of adopting the german furlough job-support model. Presumably that's an attempt to stop the wholesale fraud we saw with the furlough scheme. My only hope is that they finally do something about the millions of freelancers who were thrown under the bus in March. Anyone want to place any bets?
My only hope is that they finally do something about the millions of freelancers who were thrown under the bus in March.
The vice-chair of the Tory party was on Five Live yesterday confirming that she was unaware of the issue, so we still don't exist.
We are still Schrodinger's workforce. We are neither employees, nor self-employed. Funnily, its a distinction they were unconcerned about with while taxing me (PAYE) over all these years.
We all know we'll be getting the same 'help' we're received so far... **** all!
And if anyone was in any doubt about the scale of the problem..
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1309051690948218882?s=20
It'll be a headline grabbing announcement today, with crucial details revealed in a fortnight or so
Rishi to the rescue?
Unlikely.
His introduction will be self congratulatory and refer to the billions spent to date on various schemes before moving onto some limited and tighly focussed additional measures.
This ignores the fact that other large european economies - France and Germany specifically - have spent massively more, by orders of magnitude, and signalled their willingness to do more.
The redundancy count is climbing steadily - few hundred here, few thousand there and before you know it we've reached a scarily big number.
Hospitality sector is dying a death through a thousand cuts.
WFH, where possible, now official policy - again; Julian Metcalfe, pret founder and owner of Itsu, was interviewed yesterday banging on about how gov policies and U-turns are destroying high street retail.
Arts, culture, creative sectors being allowed to die.
Top tier sport will probably change but survive; pro/semi-pro sport below the top tier, is slowly dying.
Tax revenues are falling; budget is cancelled so no chance to implement new/increase taxes - yet.
Government can increase the money supply as either a political or economic decision to stimulate the economy; I can't see that happening.
Stir in the looming disaster of a no deal end to Brexit transition.
Presiding over all of this we have the most lacklustre and incompetent gov for decades - at a time when competence and leadership are desperately needed.
Behind the scenes we have that odious shit cummings who is being allowed to put his
half-baked theories into practice with the public and the economy his expendable lab rats.
It sounds like he's continuing the furlough, or a variation, but just not calling it that.
Is that right?
As expected, he was asked about the excluded freelancers/self-employed but just ignored the question. No surprises there then.
Binners, ignoring excluded freelancers/self employed is the new normal. Drives me mad but is entirely expected from this lot.
Is that right?
Im seeing comparisons with the German scheme, not sure how accurate that is.
At first glance it looks like it has the potential to keep SWMBO employed just long enough for her industry to start winding up again late 2021 (for activity mainly in 2022). Reduced income but we’re not heavily/overcommitted financially.
No doubt devil is in the detail but it could be a way out for us.
Youre still under 🚌 by the looks of it unfortunately
It sounds like he’s continuing the furlough, or a variation,
It's a fairly huge change, essentially he's just told employers the government will help by paying some of the salary shortfall for staff on reduced hours. However retraining their workforce by reducing hours is going to cost them upto 23% more per hour than laying off a chunk of their employees and keeping the remaining people on full salary and hours.
I wonder how that will work out then.
Well whatever he does at least we know it will never be enough for the STW left wing brigade.
Cancel away.