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At what point do those figures hit the stats?
I bet there is some kind of 'under 21 or less than three years in the workplace doesn't exist for statistics' excuse...
At what point do those figures hit the stats?
Almost as soon as they leave school and don’t go into work AFAIK, 4 weeks iirc.
Bunch of stuff https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05871/
Bunch more stuff https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/bulletins/youngpeoplenotineducationemploymentortrainingneet/august2019
Employment and unemployment are fairly different metrics just now tbh but whether most people see the difference I don't know.
So most number of deaths in Europe, highest per capita death rate globally, and now the worst recession in the G7. That's quite an achievement. Aside from the obvious economic impacts of a likely second wave, the trouble now is that the economics are wrapped up with high politics. Boris is not going to want Sunak to be seen as the saviour, so we can expect any useful response to the oncoming depression to be vetoed so that Sunak can be blamed later and his leadership ambitions neutered. It's how this lot works. If the captain is going down, then so is everyone else.
Be interesting to see how their ideology gets them out of this.
Don't forget economy was already flatlining. We were in very bad shape before Covid hit.
Government needs to spend lots now on the right sort of things.
Massive infrastructure, big scale green innovations etc. Move away from the reliance on cheap personal debt. We all need to change our priorities and understanding for a new economic model.
This is the arse end of 40 years of bollocks. Economic analysis. Tories have a habit of putting things on life support though.
Sunak - Eating out is a larger part of our economy than the other G7s. That's why we're hit harder. Well within character of Tory lies.
Was the Tory poster boy for some... (The naive - just because he pressed the button on state support - something that should happen.)
We're about to see his whimpering lying excuses for a bodged up Covid response play out.
Massive infrastructure, big scale green innovations etc. Move away from the reliance on cheap personal debt. We all need to change our priorities and understanding for a new economic model.
Fat chance. It'll be more meal vouchers and buy British to support farmers bollocks. As with everything else, responsibility for spending our way out of recession will be transferred to the public. It'll be our patriotic duty to spend money on crap we don't need so we can keep minimum wage service industry workers in jobs. It'll be the responsibility of businesses to be nice to their workers, and it'll be the responsibility of local authorities and charities to support the millions who fall through the cracks. The only thing the state will be responsible for is keeping the billionaires tory donors and FTSE 100 execs in the manner they're accustomed.
Hopefully this recession news will be a wake-up call to lots of people who are on furlough and still spending like it's a free holiday! I know the economy needs us to spend, spend, spend but that will not be enough to get us out of the hole we are falling down so saving everything you can right now is the prudent thing to do.
As said above, there is no way you can trust the current govt lot to help you out of the worst happens.
I know the economy needs us to spend, spend, spend but that will not be enough to get us out of the hole we are falling down so saving everything you can right now is the prudent thing to do.
Yup, exactly what I'm doing now. There's a massive contradiction though between the message by government for us to get out there and spend money in restaurants etc, and the need for people to treat this crisis seriously so that they don't have to be supported later. This is where some novel thinking is required in terms of helicopter money, universal benefits etc. It's goes against most people's sense of 'fair play', but if the govt wants us to spend to revive the economy, they should think about providing us with the cash with which to do that.
Yep money should be given to people but this is a crisis of supply not demand. Throw money at these businesses and they will behave as described above, squirrel it away. Massive state intervention in investment is required but I suspect we might have to get by on hope.
Yep money should be given to people but this is a crisis of supply not demand.
Not sure I agree there. Both have been affected equally by the lockdown but demand is suffering through fear of the virus, continued home-working and people tightening their belts. That's why Boris is desperate to get us back into offices and out of our homes. The service sector is open and eager to get back to normal, all they need is customers.
This is worth a squiz:
https://www.counterfire.org/articles/analysis/21516-sunak-s-hard-times-choice-not-necessity
and this:
Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned he would allow a post-Brexit border down the Irish Sea “over my dead body,” just days after pledging to help Northern Irish businesses cope with a new wave of customs red tape after the U.K. leaves the European Union.
The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by Johnson in late 2019 effectively creates a customs border in the Irish Sea, where goods crossing from the rest of the U.K. to Northern Ireland must comply with EU rules and pay any potential post-Brexit tariffs. The solution was designed to avoid creating a hard border on the island of Ireland.
Says one thing, does another... surely not?
Is this the right thread to discuss this particular big lie though?
They're really not a very bright bunch, are they?
Joris Bohnson still doesn't seem to get the fact that when you sign a legally binding international treaty, then you can't just weasel out of further down the line as it no longer suits you. You can see why he would think that. Its all he's ever done his entire life. Well, it's not going to wash this time, Joris.
Everyone knows that its just posturing and that he'll cave-in at the eleventh hour, just like he did last time. We'll be spared by Jorises' enormous ego, as he won't want to go down as the PM who bankrupted the country and broke up the UK. He'll betray the ERG too when it comes down to it, just as readily as he's betrayed everyone else in his life. The self-serving ****!
'Between 1947 and 1979, productivity in the US rose by 119%, while the income of the bottom fifth of the population rose by 122%. But between 1979 and 2009, productivity rose by 80% , while the income of the bottom fifth fell by 4%(5). In roughly the same period, the income of the top 1% rose by 270%(6).
In the UK, the money earned by the poorest tenth fell by 12% between 1999 and 2009, while the money made by the richest 10th rose by 37%(7). The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, climbed in this country from 26 in 1979 to 40 in 2009(8).' (Monbiot 2011)
Factor into that mass unemployment, people have been denied the means to spend their way out of a crisis. Employers will use the opportunity to 'press down on costs' and casualise the workforce, back to the lump of the 1970s.
Employers will use the opportunity to ‘press down on costs’ and casualise the workforce, back to the lump of the 1970s.
Employers are already driving down costs. And they're not messing about at it either. They're playing hardball. As a freelancer, I'm one of the 3.5 million people who've been left with no government support since March
If you look at industries which predominantly employ freelancers (pretty much all 'creative' industries), companies are now openly advertising freelance work at minimum wage, as they know (correctly) that some people are now so absolutely desperate, having had no income for 5 months, that they're just going to have to take anything available
Once the furlough scheme ends and the huge wave of unemployment breaks, expect pay rates for salaried positions to go the same way.
The middle class is now going to find itself on the pointy end of what the working class has been battered with since the 80's
I went for lunch and had a wander around Kings cross earlier and it was dead, even the massive construction site behind the station seemed to have been mothballed
I genuinely can't see anyway out of this
Edit on costs literally every major main contractor have asked for existing contracts to be priced down 5-10% and all future ones to be all cost. Anyone who doesn't agree will be removed from the tender list
Exactly this binners,
This government will succeed in doing to the whole country what Thatcher only achieved on the North.
We've just seen the working class North pivot towards nationalism. The next election cycle will see the middle class South pivot. In what direction it is too soon to tell but they will be the next constituency up for grabs. The North is lost to the left for the time being.
That might sound too much like an endorsement for Starmer for some folk on here but that's how I see it for now. The biggest danger for Starmer is his remoteness. He doesn't engage with people very well but he doesn't engage with the moment very well either, it seems to pass him by. That leaves him vulnerable to a charismatic figure who might emerge from either the Labour ranks or elsewhere.
Once the furlough scheme ends and the huge wave of unemployment breaks, expect pay rates for salaried positions to go the same way.
Thats already started
The next election cycle will see the middle class South pivot. In what direction it is too soon to tell but they will be the next constituency up for grabs. The North is lost to the left for the time being.
I suspect its going to be very, very depressing, given the way everything has gone over the last ten years.
The people responsible for creating economic misery, and offering austerity as the only solution, have been incredibly successful at deflecting the blame onto immigrants, foreigners, the EU and everybody but themselves.
It's going to be interesting to see if they'll find it as easy when the more educated southern middle classes start seeing their standard of living decimated due to firstly Covid-related government incompetence, then an ideologically driven no-deal Brexit.
Whilst the Governments Brexity anti immigrant stance plays well in the North and parts of the South East, (Essex, Kent etc) a good portion of the South though naturally conservative is not overly concerned about immigration and well informed enough to know both what a shit sandwich Brexit is and who made it. They will turn on Johnston
I grew up in the shires and this kind of nationalist nonsense doesn't really have much of a home there. My instinct tells me that these voters will be looking for a Blair like figure.
Once the current mob bugger off into the sunset, collecting their £200 billion for passing go I can see the Conservatives doing one of their abracadabra resets and going for Sunak. Not sure how Starmer would fare against Sunak. Although the public will blame Johnston and Co. for the mess they have made of everything they have short memories (just like the Tories) and could do a quick reset to the Rishi two step.
There's a danger that events are going to just pass Starmer by.
Once the furlough scheme ends and the huge wave of unemployment breaks, expect pay rates for salaried positions to go the same way.
Thats already started
Yep, the whole of the branch I worked at has been made redundant. That includes the Branch Manager, the section managers, HGV drivers and the bunch of us normal drivers. Everyone is now scrabbling to find any job they can that pays anything close to £10/hr, most jobs are now minimum wage. I've lucked in with a supermarket delivery job at £9.60/hr, waay down on the £13/hr I was on before with paid breaks and lots of other perks. Adding it all up I'd be down over 40% on my take-home pay, that's going to push a lot of people over the edge.
There's going to be a lot of people fighting over any job going for the next year or more so employers know full well they can just pay minimum wage and still have a long line of applicants.
We won’t be referring to it as ‘minimum wage’ for much longer. George Osbourne already rebranded it as ‘the living wage’, which it isn’t.
From now on it will just be ‘the wage’. Anything you get above it will be considered a bonus for most people.
The Tories will be absolutely loving this. They have no intension whatsoever of mounting any kind of Keynesian investment or stimulus.
With Brexit, a lot of the safeguards for working people will be immediately removed. And with huge scale unemployment and economic chaos they’re going to maximise this ‘opportunity’ for an assault on living standards that even Thatcher would have deemed excessive.
We really are about to become a sweatshop economy.
If you won’t work for minimum wage on a zero hours contract with no holiday or sick pay - fine - we’ll just get somebody else in who will
The Covid-related economic shitstorm we’re about to enter (it’s barely even started yet) suits the Brexiteer Disaster Capitalist agenda perfectly. It’s why they’re even more determined to force through no deal. The Rees-Moggs of this country are salivating at the prospect of what they’ll be able to do away with during this upcoming economic collapse. They won’t be happy until we’ve Victorian levels of inequality, with ‘employees’ little more than serfs, And themselves as the mill-owners
There's also the issue of lots of employers not offering any full-time contracts at all. My delivery job is only offering me a 30 hr contract with me having to fight for any more as overtime with the others. I would be losing money every month on that so bizarre as it may seem I'd be better off resigning, moving back in with my parents (I rent) and claiming Universal Credit! They were initially only offering 20hr contracts to us all but I've managed to negotiate them up. From speaking to my soon-to-be ex-colleagues it's the same everywhere, no employer wants to commit to full-time contracts.
Evictions can start from the 26th. So, the landlord evicts you, you present to the local authority as homeless. Local authorities have little housing capacity. They find you a private rental and increased need has meant the price has gone up. Result!
NB. Showering money at businesses won't lead to trickle down because of the marginal propensity to leak. True story.
We’ve just seen the working class North pivot towards nationalism. The next election cycle will see the middle class South pivot. In what direction it is too soon to tell but they will be the next constituency up for grabs. The North is lost to the left for the time being.
That might sound too much like an endorsement for Starmer for some folk on here but that’s how I see it for now.
Explain to me why a move towards nationalism fits with it being an endorsement for Starmer? It's less nationalism, and more culture war populism. Starmer is the very opposite of a populist. He's a technocrat, and fully signed up member of the establishment. His only hope is to demonstrate that populism has failed, and ensure the labour party are not seen as complicit in that failure. If you're right that we're heading for more populism, then Starmer is already dead in the water. I've said it before, but what labour need is not a sober technocrat, but a loud and aggressive rabble rouser.
Dazh,
My point was that the North is lost to Labour for the foreseeable. The votes Labour can chase will be in the South, particularly in the Shires, where Starmer won't scare the horses the way Cornyn did.
I then went on to point out at length why he could come unstuck if he faced Sunak, who is rather Tony Blair like, or Javid who is Gordon Brown like, except he probably wouldn't sell the Nations gold at a discount and is a better politician than Brown tactically (and strategically for that matter).
Labour needs a leader with a bit more charisma I agree. A rabble rouser suggests to me that you think Labour can win back the North? I disagree, they've lost it, like they did Scotland. The battleground will be in the South.
Don't agree that
the North is lost to Labour for the foreseeable.
Voters in so-called red wall constituencies and their freshly minted MPs have, IMO, a clear expectation that johnson will keep his word about 'levelling up' and will measure tory performance against their own personal and individual interpretation of levelling up; then vote accordingly next time around.
Sunak will be measured nationwide in exactly the same way and principally by those who lose jobs and businesses; the only metric they will apply to him as chancellor will be...what did you do for me?
Moving on from that and getting the thread back on track - retail liquidations are boom time for auctioneers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53741321
I see the penny has dropped on the impact of mass home-working in cities. What are they going to do, force us to go back? Instead of wasting their time trying to get everyone to waste their time and money commuting, they'd be better off thinking about the long term and what they're going to do with all these decaying office blocks.
theyve got a bona fide superforecaster on the books, surely he predicted all of this
Interesting that hancock is out of step with rest of the cabinet on this.
We can see how this is shaping up:
- CBI siding with johnson in wanting presenteeism
- many major employers saying WFH is generally ok; we've had no adverse effects
- employees, generally, saying WFH suits us
There have been suggestions that the ad campaign might imply continued WFH could be bad for your career; denied, as you would expect, by un-named gov spox.
they’d be better off thinking about the long term and what they’re going to do with all these decaying office blocks
Despite all the short term noise being pushed out via the Telegraph and TalkRadio... it looks to me that they already doing this, in terms of change of use for office>home developments. Not sure what the plan is when to comes to collecting 'local' taxes though...
There have been suggestions that the ad campaign might imply continued WFH could be bad for your career; denied, as you would expect, by un-named gov spox.
Scaremongering. Get back outside and start spending money or you'll lose your job. Its that and a so-far inability prop up deficits in things such as public transport with a revised business model (google the impact on TFL) means they want us to do it with our wages.
There have been suggestions that the ad campaign might imply continued WFH could be bad for your career;
I guess it depends what you do. If you're a middle manager who spends your life sat in meeting rooms and workshops talking bollocks then it absolutely is bad for your career. For those of us who actually do real things and prefer that to sitting in pointless meetings it's much better for our careers. I'm very much hoping one of the indirect benefits of all this might be a reduction in the number of pointless management/supervisory roles and greater recognition of people who get things done with a minimum of management interference.
The other massive benefit is the culture of fake socialisation has effectively been stopped in its tracks. I no longer feel under pressure to be friendly with people who outside of work I would give a second glance, and I can no longer be accused of not being a team player if don't want to be best mates with the David Brent style boss. And if it results in the office gobshites not getting promoted beyond their ability then all the better. If one good thing comes out of covid then I hope it's the end of fake office culture.
Personally I'm not keen to go back to the office. I quite dislike cities! Hopefully wfh will become the norm for my job with the (much reduced in scale) office being a collaborative space. My only slight concern is that having effectively outsourced me to my home, I'll get outsourced a bit further afield!
So C(r)apita, the gov's favourite outsourcers, have confirmed they will be closing more than
1/3 of their offices; few, if any, job losses anticipated.
Can't imagine the closures will be welcomed ny johnson and his acolytes but it might help them to understand that their wish to get people back into offices is falling on deaf ears.
As for the widely used phrase '...getting people back to work' - it's complete bollocks as a lot of people are working but not from their previous office environment; what they should be saying is...we want, and need, you to work in an office with other employees and stop this WFH.
To misquote someone on twitter - if the economy can apparently survive us ripping up all our trade agreements and giving the finger to our biggest trading partner, then it can survive me not buying a bagette from a town centre pret.
what they should be saying is…we want, and need, you to work in an office with other employees and stop this WFH.
They're getting pretty desperate. Almost begging people to go back to their previously miserable commutes and be less well off as a result. I can see where this is going. Tax breaks and incentives to employers to force staff back to work, with no benefit being passed on to workers. If I were Keir Starmer right now I'd be thinking this was a gift to get white collar workers on my side. In the 70s the battle was about pay levels, now it's going to be about the right to work from home and maintain the flexibility it provides.
Just imagine...employees saying yes I'll return to the office provided, of course, you have covid proofed it as far as practically possible and maintain that level of cleanliness/hygiene but please be aware that I'll breakfast at home and bring my own lunch.
Let's call that turning back the clock to pre-Pret/starbucks/costa/leon.
It addresses the productivity/creativity line of argument as employees will be in the office; overall consumption is unchanged - the concern is displacement spending and the likely net reduction of expenditure.
Discretionary spending is under pressure; the UK's focus on a consumption based economy is coming unstuck.
What about volume manufacturing? Ah, yes, I forget...we gave that away 40+ years ago.
Whichever way you cut it, johnson's exhortations are both empty and pathetic.
If you're right Daz there will be court cases/class actions as there is no case law which would be applicable, as far as I know.
Contraventions of employment law.
Neither johnson nor any member of his clown circus have thought this through.
dazh
In the 70s the battle was about pay levels, now it’s going to be about the right to work from home and maintain the flexibility it provides.
Good point there.
Dazh, a couple of days ago you said...
I’m very much hoping one of the indirect benefits of all this might be a reduction in the number of pointless management/supervisory roles and greater recognition of people who get things done with a minimum of management interference.
Don't disagree with a word of that but...if it were to happen, it reduces the blame buffer and brings senior management closer to accepting responsibility for their decisions.
People may resent the time spent commuting and ask to make it part of their work hours if employer wants them back in office?
I think there's something in that @yourguitarhero.
Like so many things through lockdown, I wonder if a lot of people have realised their priorities in life are different from an hour+ commute, in a crowded part of the country, away from nature and opportunities for outdoor recreation, paying through the nose for houses, cars and shopping for 'stuff'.
I know it won't be anywhere near a majority of people, but a shift for a good few I think is on the cards.
I suspect a few companies will also change how they work and where.
People may resent the time spent commuting and ask to make it part of their work hours if employer wants them back in office?
That's just one question. Should commuters be paid more to compensate for the extra expense and inconvenience? Should homeworkers be compensated for the energy costs and floorspace? Should savings companies make by reducing office space be passed on to workers? These are all going to be issues running up to the next election.
For me I'm happy to shoulder the costs of working from home in return for the savings that not having to commute provides. Once the covid crisis is over however businesses which stick to homeworking should be sharing the benefits of reduced overheads. And then there's the issue of more widespread and cheaper broadband services. I can almost see Corbyn's free internet policy being revived in some form.