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Mass unemployment on its way. 1980s creative destruction is back, and in its wake will be a low wage, zero-security, zero-rights economy.
https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1309095429867536388?s=20
ignoring excluded freelancers/self employed
As I understand it the current scheme for the self employed is due to be continued in a modified format, though what that will be who knows. That of course doesn't address freelance work mind or many others.
Also I don't think they're being ignored it's just no one wants to name the elephant in the room. He's said we can't continue to support non viable jobs, for free lancers that means, if you're not picking up work [because the industry you work in is shot etc] you're out of luck. For the "normally" employed, it basically means unless your employer is expecting a rapid bounce back redundancies are going to be widespread.
MSE is reporting that it'll continue for self employed if the business is viable. Only 20% so quite a drop from current.
From MSE:
The Chancellor announced further support for self-employed people but didn't provide much further detail.
The Treasury has revealed on social media that the scheme will support "viable traders who are facing reduced demand over the winter months, covering 20% of average monthly trading profits via a government grant."
it will never be enough for the STW left wing brigade.
I'm far from left wing and dont think its enough. A maximum 22% contribution from the government is not going to retain jobs when the employer is still going to have find the other 58%. They would have been better targetting more support at key business sectors, that might have saved a few jobs and businesses. This just smacks of we did something knowing it was too little and it would cost us much giving us plausible deniability.
They are doing the same to hospitality, social distancing, 10pm curfews, it's just shutting businesses down by stealth, they aren't economic but the government doesn't take the blame for explicitly closing them.
PS I'm not advocating fully opening up hospitality, the opposite in fact, the extended furlough scheme should have been funneled into this sector (and other similar non essential sectors, the arts and performance venues for example) and then they should been formally told to shut whilst Covid is an issue, being subsidised to do so by the government.
Also I don’t think they’re being ignored it’s just no one wants to name the elephant in the room. He’s said we can’t continue to support non viable jobs, for free lancers that means, if you’re not picking up work [because the industry you work in is shot etc] you’re out of luck
I can't see there being much left of any of the creative industries by next year. They all shut down completely in March and theres not a single sign of anything looking up any time soon. By then, all the freelancers will be driving Amazon delivery vans or stacking shelves in Tesco. If they're lucky.
There aren't going to be many (non-weatherspoons) pubs or restaurants left either. No way will many independents survive the semi-locked down winter and a socially distanced christmas.
With a tidlewave of redundancies when furlough ends, January looks like it'll be particularly grim this year, when the headbangers crash us out with No Deal.
Something to look forward too, eh?
Behind the scenes we have that odious shit cummings who is being allowed to put his half-baked theories into practice with the public and the economy his expendable lab rats.
I’m far from left wing and dont think its enough. A maximum 22% contribution from the government is not going to retain jobs when the employer is still going to have find the other 58%.
The bit I struggle to reconcile is expecting employers to pay 1/3rd of the shortfall. Telling employers they can effectively find an extra person's wage for keeping 4 employees on 1/3rd hours instead of simply getting rid of 2.5 of them. Who is going to do that at a time when turnover is significantly down?
As far as I can tell, on the face of it, it mirrors the French and German schemes so I don't think we can complain too much, when most of us where citing their schemes running longer as the standard a few days ago - obviously the Devil is in the details.
The headline of 80% contribution down to 22% will be shocking, but if they've got their maths right, and businesses up to now have been honest about not bringing people back because of the rules on part-time work it shouldn't be cataclysmic, get someone back 1.5 days a week, pay them for 2 and a bit days a week, Gov matches that and the employee gets a smidgen less than Furlough money to work 1.5 days. It's not ideal for anyone, but that's where we find ourselves.
And yes, lots and lots, and indeed lots of employers have torn the arse out of the furlough rules to fatten their bank balance, of course many more haven't.
This is going to gut some sectors though, it really is. The only positive I can think of is that every business that I know of (and I work b2b with businesses in pretty much every sector) that isn't directly hurt by covid is really, really busy.
and businesses up to now have been honest about not bringing people back because of the rules on part-time work it shouldn’t be cataclysmic, get someone back 1.5 days a week, pay them for 2 and a bit days a week, Gov matches that and the employee gets a smidgen less than Furlough money to work 1.5 days. It’s not ideal for anyone, but that’s where we find ourselves.
Only as an employer you'll probably be much better off simply bringing back half your workforce full time and waving good bye to the rest. Its cheaper to lay off anyone under the age of 21 than keep them on 50% hours, it's cheaper to get rid of anyone under 40 who has been with the company 5 years or less, 3 years or less over 40. Even if its more expensive today, chances are you're going to have to find that redundancy pay for a lot of them in 6 months time anyway.
This will protect an aged work force and throw the young to the wolves.
We clearly need to start an STW political party. There are so many experts on here on every subject imaginable with respect to the current crisis that it would cruise to a landslide victory, eliminate COVID and get the economy booming within 6 months
Or is it not that easy?
*Registers Binners Vaccines and PPE inc with Companies House*
Self employed musician here.....can't wait to pick up my 20% payment....may as well spend it on Xmas presents as it's not going to cover my mortgage let alone any other bills!
As binners alluded to, time to fill out an application form for a delivery driver job (I actually filled out my first application form this morning) As sad as it sounds, I'm finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it....
@Tom B Why be embarrassed about it?
My son works in-store for Sainsbury's - has done for several years as his FT permanent job - and what really p!ssed him off were the Facebook and LinkedIn posts from people who had lost their jobs elsewhere and were inferring that they were only taking a job at a supermarket to help out the country at a time of crisis. When actually they were just desperate for some income
Absolutely nothing wrong with working in a supermarket and certainly nothing to be embarrassed about. You need a job so you're applying for one. Others might prefer to sit on their backsides and expect to get a hand out but you are taking positive action
Very best of luck with the application
Or is it not that easy?
It's not. The people who have the integrity to govern well and for the benefit of the population often are bound closer to the truth, because they are better people. Those who don't give a shit about the welfare of the nation are only in the business to help themselves and their mates make money so they tend to have no scruples about lying their faces off just to get votes. So how do the good people win?
Others might prefer to sit on their backsides and expect to get a hand out
Also nothing wrong with that, either.
This will protect an aged work force and throw the young to the wolves.
The challenge at the moment is there are parts of the aged workforce who were the young thrown to the wolves in their own time. What we have is a double hit - setting some on a path that always sees them economically disadvantaged throughout their lives and others kept on the path of economic disadvantage. At the moment this is just the latest in what for some is series of compounding life events and we have to assume there will be others. What might be the cosy safe middle today could be the aged in the future. If we throw the aged workforce to the wolves now what do we do when they become the retired poor?
I was being facetious molgrips....
Self employed musician here…..can’t wait to pick up my 20% payment….may as well spend it on Xmas presents as it’s not going to cover my mortgage let alone any other bills!
As binners alluded to, time to fill out an application form for a delivery driver job (I actually filled out my first application form this morning) As sad as it sounds, I’m finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it….
Sorry to hear that. When I lost my job in Banking in 2009 after the crash I found myself in a call centre being introduced to my new 'Supervisor' who was about 10 years my junior. Worst still I was crammed into this grubby little desk, from which if I squinted and the tide of other call centre workers ebbed the right way I could see out of the window and my old double flash office across the road.
I wasn't embarrassed as such, I will never look down on anyone for doing any job. It wasn't really shame either, like now the 'world was ending' and economically at least, it was 'the big one' we were talking about a depression not seen since the 30s. I was the lost of 'status'. Before that I know my Mum, whenever reminded about how much of a **** up I'd been in my teens could say "He's an Account Manager for RBS commercial " and this was pre-Banker bashing so some people at least used to hold us in reasonable esteem. I didn't even tell my mates that's what I was doing, mostly because it was very short term, I took another job in an equally horrible office for equally terrible money for a couple of horrible bosses, but it 'sounded' like a better job at least. Maybe it was embarrassment, but it felt different, it was like someone came along whipped away 50% of my self-worth in an instant, and it took a good while to get it back.
What might be the cosy safe middle today could be the aged in the future. If we throw the aged workforce to the wolves now what do we do when they become the retired poor?
You're right of course, though if the alternative is a working poor the old will by and large (since most will be on market related pensions) be retired poor as well.
The issue is that policies like this coupled with ones like redundancy pay being related to age positively encourage the preferential treatment of older employees over younger ones.
The difficulty is finding a middle ground which doesn't actively support one demographic in favour of another.
As sad as it sounds, I’m finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it….
Difficult as know it can be to remember sometimes, very few people go to work for the cachet or the pleasure of it. Never be embarrassed about what you do to put food on the table. Working as a delivery driver doesn't make you more or less valuable than a Dr, but I know who people would want back first if they all went on strike tomorrow, and they don't wear white coats.
Being self employed I was keenly awaiting Richis announcement today.
Extending self employment help scheme, yay 😀
Only 20% of average, WTF 🤬
What adds to the annoyance of a basic lack of funds, is the extra layer of bullshit in describing this as being on a similar level of support as the job retention schemes 20%v60% plus top up. Wouldn’t expect exactly the same without the addition of more complex mechanics but cut the BS please.
Working as a delivery driver doesn’t make you more or less valuable than a Dr, but I know who people would want back first if they all went on strike tomorrow, and they don’t wear white coats.
Most people on most days certainly. There are some situations when a doctor is rather more necessary than next day amazon delivery.
Refugee from the entertainment industry here. The company (in fact the group of 7 companies) folded at the end of July, once Furlough started to come to an end. In 2019 we turned over in excess of £20M. Now its all gone.
No idea what happens next. I was excellent at my job. I'd been doing it for 23 years - I bloody well should have been. I've done some stuff I was very, very proud of and a had a reputation for getting difficult stuff done well. Normally losing ones job means going freelance for a bit, but there's just nothing out there - the whole industry has vanished - all my freelance mates have been sat at home staring at the wall since March unable to afford to do anything; those who were in full time employment are either like me and now redundant or bricking it because they're about to be. None of us have the slightest clue when, or indeed if it'll come back. So many companies are going under that all the kit is vanishing, so that it can't just spring back to life again.
I can apply myself to pretty much anything, but am qualified for nothing and looking at vacancies for similar sounding jobs in different industries with passably grown up pay scales gives me no hope that it'll be anything other than a waste of time applying.
I'm fortunate in that the redundancy payout has covered my outstanding mortgage, and several mates have chucked me some temporary work (I start building a bike skills area in a week's time), but its a hefty shock to the system to go from being near Higher Earner tax bracket to £10/hr (which is what I was earning in the '90s) AND realising/being grateful that even that is a good chunk above minimum wage! Being mid 40s and digging holes for a living is not going to be sustainable in the long term
There is nothing in today’s announcement for any company forced by law to stay closed. Nothing. Deeply depressing.
There are entire industries that are about to be absolutely decimated. Completely wiped out. The industry I (used to) work in is completely screwed. As are the rest of the creative industries. They’ve completely ceased to function in any meaningful way.
Small businesses are going to go down like dominoes.
We’re definitely on for mass unemployment worse than the 80’s
I don’t actually think this lot give a shit.
In fact, I think some of them are privately quite happy as it’ll give them an excuse for the economic carnage that no deal is about to deliver.
As sad as it sounds, I’m finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it….
Why do you think you are better that that? Better than the people who ordinarily do as their job. I work in the conference industry, I've spent the last 25 years travelling all over the world working, flying business on long haul, staying in some very nice hotels, eating in some very good restaurants and now I'm up at 4:30 every morning emptying maggot infested bins. I'm actually walking the streets where I live, emptying the bins of friends and neighbours. Do I think I'm better than that, no I don't, do I think I'm better than the regulars who've been doing it for years, no ****ing way! Get over it, you never know you might even find you actually like some aspects of the job.
Edit. CBA
In fact, I think some of them are privately quite happy as it’ll give them an excuse for the economic carnage that no deal is about to deliver.
The big job loss numbers will start to hit the headlines some time over the next few weeks, no doubt.
Once people start to get hit in the pocket by it and realise that they were the numbers the headlines were talking about we'll have the "final" stage of the Brexit disaster then they can blame the mass unemployment/poverty/riots on Brexit rahter than their mishandling of Covid.
Why do you think you are better that that?
Did you consider that he might be embarrassed because he knows he'll be judged by loads of other people based on the job he does?
notmyrealname
Full MemberOnce people start to get hit in the pocket by it and realise that they were the numbers the headlines were talking about we’ll have the “final” stage of the Brexit disaster then they can blame the mass unemployment/poverty/riots on Brexit rahter than their mishandling of Covid.
Even in these crappy political times, they'll have to pick one or the other- and brexit is the thing they want, so covid will be the scapegoat. Economic carnage from covid will be depicted as unavoidable- in fact, we'll be told that the only reason it's as good as it is, is because the government did so well, and we should all be grateful. And brexit will be a glorious success.
Others might prefer to sit on their backsides and expect to get a hand out
I've been waiting for years for an opportunity to post this.
Most people on most days certainly. There are some situations when a doctor is rather more necessary than next day amazon delivery
Though of course you may find the Dr isn't necessary at all if no one is delivering the penicillin to control your staph infection, the blood to transfuse you with, the light bulbs for the theatres, the food you both eat, the fuel for your cars or the ambulances and so on.
Did you consider that he might be embarrassed because he knows he’ll be judged by loads of other people based on the job he does?
Yes, of course I understand that's exactly what he's feeling. And what I'm saying is get over it and do the job, I don't think for one minute he considers himself better than anyone else, I think his problem is he's worried about the opinions of people whose opinions if they are what he thinks they are the opinions of people he shouldn't give a shit about. If anyone of my neighbours thinks less of me now because I empty their bins that says more about them than me. We've both been put out of work because we've been told we must sacrifice our jobs and income to protect others. It's pretty hard to take I fully understand but we are where we are.
FT front page reporting that job losses between now and year end will be 1 million.
Gulp.
That low? Could easily be that alone from restaurants and coffee shops.
But then we have the ‘opportunities’ of Brexit to look forward to in January… middle of a pandemic… middle of winter… it’ll be the land of milk and honey.
That low?
thats what I was thinking. That’s wildly optimistic, given that the job losses with the hospitality industry alone are estimated at that.
I can think of many more industries, also presently ceased from functioning, that are going to make pretty much their entire workforce redundant once furlough ends
3.5 million unemployed is probably a best case scenario
We've all posted, with varying degrees of pessimism, about what might happen.
I certainly have, at some length.
We, generally, don't have any great insights into the labour market but when the FT puts down something of a marker that carries much more weight.
One of my earlier 'forecasts' was unemployment to hit 4 million.
Ever have the feeling of wishing you were completely wrong?
Ever have the feeling of wishing you were completely wrong?
Every morning, for a little over four years.
The CEO of Reed recruitment, who I would imagine has considerable insight in this area, was interviewed on channel 4 news a few weeks back. He was talking about a potential unemployment rate of 5-6 million.
That really doesn’t bear thinking about
Talking to a recruitment consultant in my own industry (design) and she said they’re expecting an absolutely huge wave of redundancies when furlough ends next month, with all the newly unemployed looking for freelance work.
There isn’t any freelance work around, obviously. At this time of year you’re normally gearing up for Christmas. Designing promotions for the hospitality sector, fashion photo shoots for retail etc.
You can imagine how much of that is presently going on
None
Unemployment of 4 million = 13.2%.
He was talking about a potential unemployment rate of 5-6 million.
5 million = 16.5%
6 million = 19.8%
For context...in 1930, early days of the great depression, the unemployment rate was 20% and there was a sizeable manufacturing sector and heavy industry which provided mass employment as the depression ended.
We have traded manufacturing for a hospitality sector and financial services; the former is dying on it's feet and the latter is showing signs of migrating to other financial centres.
On the upside, here comes the cavalry - liz truss and tony abbott are delivering trade deals every day; govey gove has sorted EU cross-border trade and cummings is busily turbo-charging the UK tech sector.
So...nothing to be concerned about.
I see they've wheeled out the spectacularly dim Helen Whately to do the rounds of the studios this morning. Handily she's so thick that, for once, you actually get an honest answer out of a politician.
Looks like the government are quite relaxed about letting pretty much the entire creative industries collapse over the winter. As well as hospitality and any other sector that isn't immediately able to open up and be independently 'economically viable' without government support
Given that typically short-term attitude I think those upper 5-6 million estimates of unemployment could be soon looking like a reality.
One of the most alarming things about the whole pandemic is that it's been left to Piers Morgan to somewhat inexplicably become the voice of reason. Its deeply disturbing
https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1310473579570618369?s=20
https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1310470944603938816?s=20
Looks like the government are quite relaxed about letting pretty much the entire creative industries collapse over the winter.
Wow. They're not even keeping up the pretence of supporting affected sectors/jobs. They're going for the full Thatcherite destroy everything and wait for the pheonix to rise from the ashes approach. As well as gifting Starmer the biggest open goal in history, I reckon it's also pretty much confirmed that Boris isn't planning on hanging around for much longer. Why else would he dig his own grave?
I did read, but can't confirm it's veracity, that for every person whose contacts they pursue Serco is paid £900.
You've just got to ask yourself 4 simple questions as to whether your industry is going to be supported by this govt:
A: Does my job directly make someone who is very wealthy even richer?
B: Does the company that I work for trade in the FTSE 100?
C: Does my company get awarded govt contracts on a regular basis?
D: Does the owner of my company donate to the Conservative Party with the numbers running into 7 digits or more?
You could also add in 'Does my company have a direct line to Cummings?' but that tends to go hand-in-hand with D.
It's not a fool-proof list (my now ex-employer ticked them all off) but it does provide a good indicator of whether the company/industry will still be around at the end.
They’re not even keeping up the pretence of supporting affected sectors/jobs.
If they've temporarily closed your sector down (by law), then you don't get any help. If they've helped you stay open by adjusting the rules to enable that, but you are still effected by a drop in custom, then you get some help. It's crazy.