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Is this the most speculated budget since forever??
The posh bike subsidy for middle class MAMILs looks like its going, which is fair enough but will hurt retailers
Freeeze on Fuel duty (boo) and rail fairs (yay)
More stuff getting sugar taxed (yay)
Minimum wage up, energy bills down
2 child benefit cap is going? (yay)
ISA limit being cut
A fair few giveaways there, so theres going to be some rises (silence MMTers you cant wish away the bond markets!)
Thresholds are going to be frozen for sure- which is a rise
What are the chances of a complete reform of business rates, council tax (waaay overdue) , abolish stamp duty???
silence MMTers you cant wish away the bond markets!)
Lol. Keep getting rubbish outcomes then!
You have an elected government to literally control these things. A central bank with bond buying capability and a central bank that sets the interest rate which gilts follows.
But whatever you do always believe the greedy capitalists that got us in this mess.
They know best.
🤪
Should be a fun thread.
VOXPOP MODE
They need to increase taxes on all the things that don't affect me, and decrease them on the things that do. Oh, and increase any benefits I might get, increase spending on things I support, and decrease spending on things I don't use or need or like.
That should do it.
I find the changes to the mobility scheme interesting, and I agree with them. I'd personally means test it like other benefits. If you can afford a massive top up payment then you probably wouldn't be top of my list of people that require a government handout for a car. On the flip side it'll completely screw the used car market in a few years
Bike to work I don't care about either. I've been guilty of taking the pee pee with it once, and a mate worth millions got a 12k sworks half price through the company she owns..far too open to abuse
Mobility thing is a lot of bollox to appease knuckle dragging apes, want a basic MG HS automatic suv?, it’s no down payment and all of your mobility money a month, I have one I got 2 years ago and pay £270 month, done 4500miles in 2years as I ****ing hate driving it, it’s a POS and compared to my previous VW Tiguan
Want a VW Tiguan auto?, I had one in 2018 which was £500 down payment and all my mobility money/month - kept that car for 5 years. If I wanted the equivalent now it’d be £5k down payment due to increase of vehicle.
Want a BMW X3 or something similar?, down payment was around £7k
Feels like I'm in the cross hairs here with the mooted extension to the tax band freeze and changes to sal sac.
Wouldn't mind if there was a sense that everyone was being affected equally, but this really does feel like a targeted attack on hard working private sector employees specifically, while pensioners, the rich and public sector workers with DB pensions are once again laughing all the way to the bank.
public sector workers
curious to why you think they are exempt?
I think the announcements tonight means something big is coming tomorrow in terms of tax. The Govt wants tonights announcement getting some media as whatever is coming tomorrow will dominate the reporting
I think as a minimum a big shake up of property tax including a "mansion tax" but actually a revaluation of all property and increasing number of council tax bands.
But maybe something else as well...
It's not going to happen but I'd like an announcement for a transition to a customs union with Europe as it would go a long way to addressing the growth issue and consequently the Reeves balancing the books over a Parliament nonsense
public sector workers
curious to why you think they are exempt?
More likely to have generous DB pension schemes. In fact I did specify "public sector workers with DB pensions".
Private sector DC pension schemes are the least generous of all, most people in those schemes aren't saving anywhere near enough for retirement as it is, and yet those are the ones apparently being targeted.
But public sector workers could also be hit by frozen tax bands of course, so they're not completely exempt and it was possibly a little harsh of me to group them with pensioners and the rich.
It's not going to happen but I'd like an announcement for a transition to a customs union with Europe as it would go a long way to addressing the growth issue and consequently the Reeves balancing the books over a Parliament nonsense
If only Brexit hadn't knocked £90bn off the Government's ledger...
There's some really simple stuff to fix a lot of this. Put that "temporary" 5p/litre Covid tax cut on fuel duty back on then pop it on an inflation escalator. It's been frozen for decades now costing billions in tax receipts.
Cut a shitload off the roads building budget, that can swallow hundreds of billions for limited result. Put that all into rail, bus and active travel. Same with nuclear and fossil fuels - stop the hundreds of billions of subsidy funnelled into that and go full net zero. About 10x cheaper in the long run.
And yet none of it will happen, it'll be the usual tax raid on the middle classes. Save a couple of million in subsidised bikes while EV subsidy gets billions extra. 🙄
It’s not been speculated upon. It’s been three months of a helplessly out of her depth Chancellor tossing out “how about this one...” ideas and seeing them being shot down in flames. The long run up and smorgasbord (to coin a word) of ideas from the sound to ridiculous has undermined confidence without any of us seeing the final results. What a $hitshow.
Mobility thing is a lot of bollox to appease knuckle dragging apes, want a basic MG HS automatic suv?, it’s no down payment and all of your mobility money a month, I have one I got 2 years ago and pay £270 month, done 4500miles in 2years as I ****ing hate driving it, it’s a POS and compared to my previous VW Tiguan
Want a VW Tiguan auto?, I had one in 2018 which was £500 down payment and all my mobility money/month - kept that car for 5 years. If I wanted the equivalent now it’d be £5k down payment due to increase of vehicle.
Want a BMW X3 or something similar?, down payment was around £7k
But surely the car you have now serves the exact purpose of the scheme, ? Ie it's a reliable car that let's you get from A to B for people who otherwise may not be able to afford an effective mode of transport for their needs?
It’s not been speculated upon. It’s been three months of a helplessly out of her depth Chancellor
This is a very interesting point.
Its clear Reeves is not really in control and that can possibly be extrapolated to give us the above statement. However, I'm not so sure that many previous chancellors have been better swimmers, rather that they may well have had more sympathetic lifeguards.
I've met a couple of them (Lawson, Osbourne) and they never struck me as anything but moderately intelligent confidant public school products who knew full well that the city/press/old boys club stood squarely behind them and in front of them.
They had a simpler job (neither had been ****ed by Brexit for a start) and crucially had the ability to nip down whatever club and have a chat with the many many contacts made previously at Westminster/Eton etc etc to assure themselves that they would be supported by the city and by extension the press.
Personally I think Rachel Reeves had a poisoned chalice from the start, not helped by her spineless boss.
It’s been three months of a helplessly out of her depth Chancellor tossing out “how about this one...” ideas and seeing them being shot down in flames.
It is reminiscent of the final few months of the Tory administration where they were frantically leaking ideas to the Daily Mail and seeing which "policy" got the blue rinse brigade going.
Sure Reeves has had a bad hand and the bad hands have arguably been dealt since the Great Financial Crisis but no one has played their cards as poorly as her - blaming the dealer, the other players and then asking the assembled audience how to play the cards is a sure sign that the patsy in the game is the one doing the asking.
My prediction is CGT and IHT becoming harsher as there are effectively wealth taxes that have low impact on so called 'working people'.
Reckon the CGT allowance will disappear and CGT will charged at relative income tax rates. Can also see the RNRB and NRB being reduced in respect of IHT.
Also wouldn't be surprised if NIC is charged on rental income, it's about time private landlords paid a bit more to the system.
Hypothetically speaking, if they announce changes to the Cycle 2 Work scheme. When will it likely take effect? Immediately or from start of next tax year?
Want a BMW X3 or something similar?, down payment was around £7k
And the tax man misses out on £10,000 of VAT
Mobility thing is a lot of bollox to appease knuckle dragging apes, want a basic MG HS automatic suv?, it’s no down payment and all of your mobility money a month, I have one I got 2 years ago and pay £270 month, done 4500miles in 2years as I ****ing hate driving it, it’s a POS and compared to my previous VW Tiguan
Want a VW Tiguan auto?, I had one in 2018 which was £500 down payment and all my mobility money/month - kept that car for 5 years. If I wanted the equivalent now it’d be £5k down payment due to increase of vehicle.
Want a BMW X3 or something similar?, down payment was around £7k
90+% of the population can't afford a new beemer, Merc or other similar panzerwagon. So Why TF should one be subsidised for the few. If motability is about those in genuine need being able to live independently, then an MG, Kia, Renault, Hyundai, Vauxhall, etc is more than adequate. Because that's what most of us have to drive irrespective of any impairment (other than income and a willingness to spaff it away).
Seems one thing that's right to change.
Now... how about proper reform of the energy markets rather than the massively distorted current set up where the lowest bidder still get the top dollar each hour, and the distortion from gas.
And tax the truly wealthy properly - land owning chunts like Dyson, Clarkson, dukes etc.
changes to the Cycle 2 Work scheme. When will it likely take effect?
Most budget changes usually take effect from the start of the next tax year - April. It's partly because businesses have to make changes to their inhouse computer systems, involving a bit of a lead time to specify, develop, test, approve etc. Also HMRC are in similar boat. And suppliers of ERP systems have to do likewise, then distribute those changes to their own customers (ie biggish businesses) who in turn need to arrange upgrades. So it all takes a while, usually.
Of course, I may be proven completely wrong tomorrow and it'll be "immediate effect". That would imply Treasury have already spoken to the providers of C2W schemes and agreed it could happen straight away. Seems unlikely on that basis alone.
If you can afford a down payment of £7k, you shouldn't be on the motobility scheme. Car choices should be limited to basic but functional needs. Assessment of the vehicle for suitability for a disabled person to use, looking at things like lumbar support, ease of access / egress, control layout, physical buttons rather than touch screens. It's a state provided mobility aid not a status symbol. If you can afford to top up significantly you shouldn't be getting help in the first place. That said its a drop in the ocean of savings required. All benefits should be based on need and income.
I suspect though this budget will once again focus on short term changes, tax higher earners more (yet again), cut some peripheral benefits back, increase basic benefits but not by enough to make people happy. Fundamentally though it will fail to fix the underlying cost of living issues of energy and housing costs.
Service levels fro the public sector will continue to fall and ore people will expect support from an ever dwindling (based on inflation and demand) welfare budget.
Like most western countries we need to fully reassess how our country works, bit like we did in 1948 with the welfare state and reset expectations amongst the population. No on has the balls to do it though and it would take longer to implement and get results than that government has left in office.
In the meantime everyone ends up worse off budget after budget and the country continues to be more dysfunctional.
Don't want to do that the current pensions schemes are pretty rubbish. Mind you, you can use your long holidays to work in a second job, as long as it's not on only fans.
Oh and we've got a spending freeze until April.
There probably are reforms to the mobility scheme that are needed. But I really don’t like this idea that people who need help should have to be on the breadline to receive it. Help for people with mobility needs, to live their lives and hopefully to get to and do their jobs, isn’t something we should wish away because we can’t buy the vehicle they need for ourselves (when we don’t have the same needs).
Grrr! Public sector workers getting a pension that is no longer as great as it was, having pay freezes, below inflation pay rises and paying a large contribution to the one thing that is perhaps doing it for.
Anyway. Going to be interesting one, minimum wage seems to be going up which is good but no doubt it attracts angry folks who don’t want people to have a better wage.
Stamp duty shouldn't be abolished but it should be switched to the seller.
Not sure that would help downsizers, one of the biggest blockages in the property market.
The expected mobility scheme change is "equality theatre" rather than actual change that makes a difference, same as the private schools VAT change and the farm inheritance tax change. It is a smoke screen of minor action that distracts from the real change that is required, like making capital gains tax the same as income tax (or even more than income tax) or making NI contributions progressive instead of regressive, and of course a wealth tax.
public sector workers with DB pensions
Are you taking the piss? Public sector workers are paid terribly, largely a result of repeated pay freezes and below inflation pay rises since 2008. In that time Mrs Daz had her salary cut 20% in the job she was doing in 2008 (drug and alcholol support worker). Now she's a senior social worker at the local authority and is only now starting to receive inflation-linked pay rises after years of freezes. If her salary in that time had risen in line with inflation she'd probably be getting paid 20k more than she is now.
Like most western countries we need to fully reassess how our country works, bit like we did in 1948 with the welfare state and reset expectations amongst the population. No on has the balls to do it though and it would take longer to implement and get results than that government has left in office.
Exactly this. Only person even suggesting anything close to it is Polanski who is constantly fighting "but the markets won't like it" bullshit. He pointed out on a CH4 debate recently that the NHS would never be formed today because "we can't afford it"
Ultimately budgets don't make a lot of difference to a lot of people as the higher earners will just have a bit less so can't waste as much money on themselves. Budgets could make a difference to low earners but again the changes are too small.
Only person even suggesting anything close to it is Polanski who is constantly fighting "but the markets won't like it" bullshit.
Had the news on for an hour and I've already heard the phrase 'the bond markets' numerous times. I've been watching budgets for 30-odd years and I'm pretty sure it's only in the last couple of years that the media and politicians have become obsessed with them. Obviously it's a result of Liz Truss's flirtation with fantasy neoliberalism but we really need the govt to take the necessary action to remove this nonsensical barrier to reform and investment. If only they had the power... (rone to the thread please 😀 )
Are you taking the piss? Public sector workers are paid terribly, largely a result of repeated pay freezes and below inflation pay rises since 2008. In that time Mrs Daz had her salary cut 20% in the job she was doing in 2008 (drug and alcholol support worker). Now she's a senior social worker at the local authority and is only now starting to receive inflation-linked pay rises after years of freezes. If her salary in that time had risen in line with inflation she'd probably be getting paid 20k more than she is now.
If they're not happy with their pay then they should quit their job and find another role with better pay. That's how the marketplace works - it's fluid - if you stay in the same place then you will slowly find yourself sinking to the bottom (which may or may not be appropriate, depending on what skills you have to offer). The levels of entitlement in the public sector are quite something.
The levels of entitlement in the public sector are quite something.
Some people believe in public service as opposed to just chasing big bucks.
Well, you’ll be delighted to hear that if we end up with a Reform government, you’ll be seeing them once again…
If Reforms win the next election will we also have a return to the 1970s playground tradition of pulling our arms into our jumper sleeves and waving our hands around and pulling a face!?
If they're not happy with their pay then they should quit their job and find another role with better pay.
You're clearly taking the piss too. Last time I looked there wasn't a market for private social workers, police officers etc. They're statutory roles operated by the state. Next you'll be whining about no bobbies on the beat and how you have to wait hours in A+E. Honestly do you guys live in a parallel universe? How anyone with half a brain who keeps up with current affairs can come to the conclusion that public sector workers have a better deal than their peers in the private sector is beyond me. 🤷♂️
The levels of entitlement in the public sector are quite something.
Some people believe in public service as opposed to just chasing big bucks.
Indeed. It’s why I chose it and loved but didn’t expect the shitty pay freezes and my pension to be ****ed over. Many are leaving the NHS and other public sectors, another reason they are in a mess.
If people want a public sector like pension they could quite their desk job and go frontline in the NHS.
public sector workers with DB pensions
Are you taking the piss? Public sector workers are paid terribly, largely a result of repeated pay freezes and below inflation pay rises since 2008. In that time Mrs Daz had her salary cut 20% in the job she was doing in 2008 (drug and alcholol support worker). Now she's a senior social worker at the local authority and is only now starting to receive inflation-linked pay rises after years of freezes. If her salary in that time had risen in line with inflation she'd probably be getting paid 20k more than she is now.
I regret making this about public Vs private sector workers as there are much bigger issues than that.
The stats do support that public sector workers have fared worse in terms of pay growth over the past 15 years to the tune of a couple of percent, but more recently public sector pay has been increasing more rapidly than private.
You also have to consider that private sector jobs on average demand more hours and offer less job security.
My point was specifically about pension provision though. Even the least generous DB schemes are much more generous than a typical DC scheme.
I don't think any worker pensions should be subject to a tax grab while the triple lock still exists and while wealth taxes don't. But if you're going to grab from one, surely don't grab from the one that's already underfunded.
People in private sector think public sector employees have a great deal, and vice verse.
There are pros and cons of both. You get paid more in the private sector for sure. Your pension however is likely to be worse (obviously depends on the employer)
The biggest drawback for the private sector (imo) is job security, ie there is rarely any. When money dries up, Those in the public sector get pay freezes, private sector just boots you out so the shareholders can keep raking in the profits
2 child benefit cap is going?
The mouth breathers aren't going to like that.
I better start breathing through my mouth then. I really don’t understand why you should get a state handout for choosing to have more than 2 kids. Why should your lifestyle choice be subsidised by the rest of the population.
For those of us working in public organisations for private outsourcers we probably get the worst of all worlds. Not that I begrudge those direct public sector workers, but I could have spent my working life getting paid better with a better pension and at a lower cost to the taxpayer if politicians were more focussed on service delivery instead of using the public sector to syphon public spending to corporate share holders.