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The majority of our export trade is services, not goods, as far as I’m aware.
So almost everything we give to the EU in terms of trade can be done by the members left inside the bloc? So where are they going to find that political ace to force a good deal from then?
They say satire is dead but it isn't, it's sat on the sidelines looking on in bewilderment at how reality has completely Top Trumped anything it could have thought of.
Sod it, in for a penny.....
Consider cars. Pre-1980s if you bought a British car you were truly getting a bespoke item. Yes, there were production lines, obviously, but on any given day the wing mirror polishers might be out on strike for a 50% pay rise or Dave The Painter left yesterday so the whole paint department went out on the piss and can’t stand up straight. As soon as reasonable quality foreign imports, particularly those made using JIT principles, became available the British made car was shown up for the shoddy overpriced crap that it was.
British Leyland sold the Mini at a loss accidentally to start with, because (surprise, surprise) it wasn’t just the actual manufacturing that was shoddy, so was the accounting.
So, we beg and bribe Japanese car manufacturers to come to the UK to replace the old shambles.
They insist that we have to put lots of stuff in place so their JIT processes can work. The ‘warehouse’ at your standard Japanese car plant is about the size of a medium office floor. Basically non-existent because nothing is allowed to stand still ‘waiting for something else to arrive’ or whatever.
So, the JIT philosophy works well. Then some prat comes along and messes with a part or parts of that supply chain. Creating the need for import checks where there previously weren’t any for example. Now your Japanese car manufacturer’s ENTIRE business model is screwed. The model is so lean, so tight, that any disruption is extremely damaging. So they say “thanks very much for the tax breaks for last thirty years, but we’re off now”. Short of state seizing of plant and machinery (which I think even the Tories would wince at), there is bugger all that can be done.
One other side rant about trade having other impacts beyond the immediately obvious. Consider the example of Rolls Royce exporting the Nene jet engine to the Soviets in the late 40s. The Americans had basically won the war in the west for us, but they then sent us the bill. After very nearly bankrupting the UK they did agree to lend us half of what was deemed essential. The last of that was paid off in 2006, incidentally. So, the country is on its knees, rationing, the freezing winter of 1946-7 etc. Stalin jokes that there is no way the Brits will sell him any of their Crown Jewels (jet engine tech at this time being one of the few), but he asks for a laugh.....
And Rolls Royce end up selling some to the Russians. Bad enough from the US point of view. It gets a lot worse, though, when the Russian reverse engineer the tech and stick the resulting engines in their Mig 15s. These then show up over Korea where they start blasting US planes and their pilots out of the sky.
The point is that this stuff did not exist in a vacuum back in the 1940s. Nowadays any retrograde step in cooperation with any trading partner is likely to have effects that no one can foresee.
Bollocks to Brexit.
Consider cars. Pre-1980s if you bought a British car you were truly getting a bespoke item.
... like the Allegro.
Yet another elephant in the room. "Buy British" is a laudable aim, but when not viewed through pineapple-ringed spectacles a lot of what we produced was shit.
(And we don't even produce shit any more, often we replaced that with "nothing at all.")
Well, I had a long day at work and a wind-down rant or two can be quite cathartic.
The point of all my ramblings above is that this stuff is really complicated and there is no escaping it.
You can never model all of the possible permutations, sure, but even that points back to the sheer stupidity of disrupting it for no good reason.
Add to this the fact that our PM (talk about devaluing a great office of state, my god) has a reputation for being intolerant of detail, broad-brush, crass, pompous and untrustworthy and you can see why I get so bloody annoyed by all this. The other occupiers of the offices of state also seem to be cut from a similar cloth.
Soundbites do not compensate for knowing what you are doing. Not when reality comes along and upsets the apple cart.
Sure, we have experts in the Civil Service but they will not get any proper direction from the top and if they try to prepare for reality they will get a bollocking for being pessimistic and unpatriotic. The fact that the arch arsehole Cummings wants to lay waste to them will not help either. Any sane person would be looking for a change of job. I am sure many private companies will pay handsomely for someone with the inside track of what goes on and the experience of dealing with it. As with everything to do with Brexit, the actual outcome is the opposite of what any sane person would want. The reverse Midas Touch where everything turns to shit.
Bollocks to Brexit.
The Canadian opinion...
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For context there: mainland Europe is 700 miles away, Australia is 10,000.
Probably further if you are shipping by carbon neutral Tea Clipper.
But racism and anti-immigration aren’t quite the same.
Racism is just a tool used to shut white people up while their countries are destroyed. Not unlike the antisemitism charge for critisism of Isreal.
Destroyed how?
Ryanair have just released their qualifying criteria for their recruitment drive in Manchester – applicants MUST have full rights of freedom of movement and freedom to work anywhere in the EU…
...bearing in mind that in the event of a BJ no-deal at the end of the year, GB planes will be permitted to fly to and from EU destinations but not between EU destinations (and similarly with the haulage industry). Allegedly.
…bearing in mind that in the event of a BJ no-deal at the end of the year, GB planes will be permitted to fly to and from EU destinations but not between EU destinations (and similarly with the haulage industry). Allegedly.
Well when your not at the table they can
sort of make rules up you may not like 🙁
It’ll all be weaponised by the gov as a valid reason they go Aussie rules (the new name for no deal) and why the US deal is so great.
A lot of lidl/Aldi fruit and veg comes from where my PIL’s live in Spain, their friend from over here drives a truck that brings it back, even with tariffs and extra costs under Aussie terms that’s still got to be cheaper and quicker than a refrigerated container doing 10,000 miles.
(And that’s without even mentioning the climate change ethics)
A twiddle on the spec and/or longer term pcp’s and the bm’s and Audi’s will still flow into the country.
I’m really not sure he’s worried about a trade deal with the EU.
He was willing to chance it last year when he had no majority and have to go thru with an election so I see no reason why he’d be that worried now he’s got 5 years and a massive majority.
If they make him an offer he can’t refuse he may take it but don’t forget
UK commitment to the Customs Union and Single Market would make a UK-U.S. FTA a non-starter
we segued effortlessly from a story about part of our ‘national salvation’ coming from shipping goods literally half way around the world to a story about cutting carbon emissions to zero.
Ahh You only have to say about cutting carbon emissions,you don’t have to go thru with it.
If anyone says different then just sack em,it’s really easy the sound bites gotta be put out there thou way more important than the actual doing stuff.
Ryanair is Irish, and given the number of Mancunians of Irish descent I think they might be looking for Irish passport holders or people who can apply for an Irish passport, which is also anyone from NI.
Soundbites do not compensate for knowing what you are doing. Not when reality comes along and upsets the apple cart.
What this utter shambles has also illustrated, in total contrast, is the quiet, efficient, hubris-free competence in which the EU has gone about it's business.
I'm sure the irony of that is completely lost on the Brexiteers
Is anyone else getting this thread not going to the last page?
There's 13 pages, but on the main chat forum screen it's only showing 12. And if you hit the link displaying when it was last updated (2 minutes ago etc), it takes you to page 12, not page13...
Other threads take you to the most recent thread on the last page of that thread.
Its remainer bias 😉
@stumpy01 - me too. I have been getting this for a week or so (not just this thread)
I think it's something to do with deleted posts not being recognised somewhere...
Is it coincidence that BJ decides to mention a Japan deal and highlight the UK's commitment to electric vehicles when Nissan, maker of one of the best selling electric vehicles, are making noises?
Much as I like the idea of the Nissan Leaf (or Micra) becoming "The People's Car" for new Free Democratic Republic of the Goodish Britain, I have my doubts.
Other non-FT coverage I read seemed a lot less optimistic and had a lot more caveats and guard terms in there.
The contingency plan is said to be one of several drawn up in preparation for post-Brexit tariffs and was drafted before Makoto Uchida...
...Nissan denied having made such a plan, however, and said its Sunderland plant would be under threat along with its European operations if the UK fails to ensure tariff-free access to the EU market.
..A Nissan spokesman said on Monday: “We deny such a contingency plan exists. We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO [World Trade Organization] tariffs."..David Bailey, the professor of industrial strategy at Aston Business School, said ..
“It’s one possible response to the hard Brexit scenario but I don’t think it’s a feasible plan.”Bailey said it was unlikely Nissan could gain the 20% market share cited as a key requirement for the Japanese carmaker to gamble on focusing its efforts in the UK.
All I think I can take from the Nissan coverage is that lots of people seem to be playing games by briefing/leaking one way, then denying but still having seen what the reaction might be.
Ah, politics on the Trumpian model, it all about the deal.
Looks like the nasty EU is punishing us again.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/02/05/galileo_uk_clause
Wonder how many leavers would consider their satnav stopping working as a "price worth paying" to just leave?
Having to navigate with a tattered A-Z would seem suitably fitting.
It would also provide a boom to map makers and a return to the glory days of UK driving holidays where coaches used to stop at local pubs and coach houses for a leg stretch.
have you even read the article you linked to? 😂 cos that is not wot it sezWonder how many leavers would consider their satnav stopping working as a “price worth paying” to just leave?
sadly the Roman Galley (near me) as made famous in OF&H day out to Margate is long gone 😭It would also provide a boom to map makers and a return to the glory days of UK driving holidays where coaches used to stop at local pubs and coach houses for a leg stretch.
Turns out my van insurers won't now let me drive to europe on work business. they've decided that they require green cards to take vehicles to the EU now (their decision, internet is ambiguous as to how this applies pre/post transition period, but they've put their mark in the sand on this issue), however, they don't insure vehicles using a green card for business use. therefore, i can't take my van to the EU on work trips.
Handily, on Saturday I was due to drive to Madrid. And now need to quickly find a work-around on how I'm going to get there with my colleagues and our equipment (as well as change ferry bookings etc).
**** Brexit.
New green card rules don’t kick in ‘till after the transition period. Have you got a link to your insurers’ statement on this issue? Worth having a few people read it to see if it really does stop you doing what you say this year.
Needing dedicated insurance to take your work vehicle to the EU (and take professional equipment and have liability cover and medical cover) next year will very likely be a thing. Anything that goes wrong will be vastly more expensive and difficult for your insurer then, so it’s different cover to what we’ve been used to. Think about taking your van to Africa to do work now…
@hungry monkey
May be worth contacting this lot and seeing if you can insure your van in Spain for a short period.
https://www.libertyexpatriates.es/freedom-service-UK
Effectively your insure the van in Spain.
Does look odd that your existing company won’t cover it.
Even if there is a straightforward cock up or over zealous policy on the fly by hungry monkey's insurer the question is:
How many more examples of this totally unnecessary confusion are going on right now? How many missed deliveries? Lost contracts? Bad will created?
It doesn't really matter if the individual businesses are right or wrong, the confusion will lead to delays, lost business etc.
And for what?
Blue passports, ****ing brilliant.
We're going to have to get used to all sorts of nonsense like this that we've just taken for granted before. 'We' just voted for a shit-load more needless bureaucracy and form-filling
Just wait until the gammons start getting hit with the huge roaming charges that the EU did away with, when they get back from Benidorm
We'll never hear the end of it. None of it will be their own fault, obviously
Remainers rules for dealing with someone complaining about the effects of Brexit.
First ask if they voted to Leave.
If they answer 'yes', shrug shoulders and walk away.
If they answer 'no' ask them if they know anyone who did. If they answer yes, tell them to go and berate them.
If they answer 'no' then say something sympathetic....then shrug shoulders and walk away.
‘We’ just voted for a shit-load more needless bureaucracy and form-filling
I have mates who sincerely believed all the spin that "the EU is needless rules and bureaucracy" and are/were convinced that leaving will cut all this 'red-tape' away.
I'm pretty sure exactly the opposite thing will happen. And the more I hear about the UK not having to align with EU standards, the more I am convinced.
I have mates who sincerely believed all the spin that “the EU is needless rules and bureaucracy” and are/were convinced that leaving will cut all this ‘red-tape’ away.
I’m pretty sure exactly the opposite thing will happen. And the more I hear about the UK not having to align with EU standards, the more I am convinced.
+1
Of course in many instances the inconvenienced customer will say "Don't worry, this uncertainty will soon pass and we will work something out".
In many others, though, the customer will say "Never mind, we have made alternative arrangements and it turns out their service is almost as good as yours, so thanks for your cooperation over the last x years, but we are going to have to go our separate ways".
Bollocks to Brexit.
Just wait until the gammons start getting hit with the huge roaming charges that the EU did away with, when they get back from Benidorm
On this at least, the major providers have all said they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges. For now, anyway.
Importantly… from next year your supplier can be charged much more by the network you use when roaming… as that is the key cap that matters… if for marketing reasons your supplier spreads that cost over all the services they provide, rather than pass it on transparently in a roaming charge… well that’s all very wise PR on their part… but bills will go up.
On this at least, the major providers have all said they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges. For now, anyway.
Well we haven’t really left yet So they can’t 🙂 but after we’re really out they’ll sneak the costs up, was always a great money maker roaming 🙂
Let's be fair the european parliament isn't going to be helping with getting a deal through at the moment.
I hate it but I suspect we will have a minimal bare bones agreement on keeping planes flying etc and then maybe a Canada style agreement after that.
by insisting on dynamic alignment and signing up to the fisheries agreement it feels like the government will just take the excuse of blaming it on the foreigners and go full tilt for no deal whatever the cost.
There's got to be some upsides, even if it takes some time.
Trouble is I really can't see the current govt being competent enough to steer policy suitably because it doesn't look like they're listening to anyone, especially the Civil Service.
There’s got to be some upsides, even if it takes some time.
There are indeed massive upsides!
If you're a currency speculator, hedge fund manager, wanabee sweatshop owner or multinational tax dodger
For the rest of us.... not so much
it doesn’t look like they’re listening to anyone, especially the Civil Service.
Right from the off this hads been a far right neoliberal idealogical project, driven entirely by dogma. Trivial things like reality aren't allowed to make any unwelcome appearences
Is it only French media reporting that there was strop off Guernsey earlier in the week as Brexit briefly stopped French boats fishing around Guernsey. I reckon we should just demand Guernsey and Jersey be handed over in exchange for something in the trade negotiations.
Ed - i pg11.
That & torygraph biz are only papers I've seen today.
Trouble is I really can’t see the current govt being competent enough to steer policy suitably
Well that's just it. We are experiencing a double whammy - we're having to negotiate the most incredibly difficult and tricky thing the country has done since the war, and we've got the least competent leadership in living memory to try and do it.
He's not saying anything that isn't blindingly obvious in this article, nor anything that wasn't blindingly obvious in 2016, but still:
I reckon we should just demand Guernsey and Jersey be handed over in exchange for something in the trade negotiations.
I see you have forgotten about Alderney (the only true Channel Island) and the other, smaller islands. Good, although I would take significant schadenfreude at the idea of Brecqhou being handed over to the French given the Barclay's pet paper's opposition to the EU.
Maybe he was being Sarkastic?
Maybe he was being Sarkastic?
It'll be a cold day in St Helier before we give the channel islands to France.
Sarkastic?
That deserves a round of applause.
Chatting to people living and working on the islands, about how little concern was shown for them during the EU debate, was embarrassing. We’re selfish arses in England, aren’t we.
The Channel Islands aren’t part of the UK tho.
I am being told again and again that with out our money the E.U. is finished and they need us way more than we need them. This is from a successful business man.
I don’t agree and got royally patronised.
The Channel Islands aren’t part of the UK tho.
Yes. But personally I thought my 'St Helier' pun deserved better.
The Channel Islands aren’t part of the UK tho.
Which is why they didn’t get a vote, despite their status being dependent on us being in the EU. It’s worse than Gibraltar in a way… they at least got a vote (not that they were listened to).
my ‘St Helier’ pun
I enjoyed it.
The Channel Islands were already part of the Duchy of Normandy when Willie One invaded in 1066, so technically we belong to them...
*tuts* Sarkasmus !
Crown dependancy tax havens:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-48354081
However Mr Christensen said that the EU system was "flawed from the start", and that they would not blacklist it's own members or their dependencies.
An EU Commission spokesperson said that, by international standards, no member state can be described as a tax haven and the criteria for non-EU countries is the same.
No financial passport until the lot are shut down if I were Barnier.
I am being told again and again that with out our money the E.U. is finished and they need us way more than we need them. This is from a successful business man.
The easiest way around this is to not equate "successful" with logic or intelligence.
i'm worried that the fact this thread is going cold, that Boris's plan on keeping quiet about brexit is working.....
Yep it's a cunning plan:
Phase 1: talk about Brexit until people are thoroughly sick of hearing about it.
Phase 2: get elected on the promise that you'll make it all go away.
Phase 3: stop talking about Brexit and cook up any deals you like while no one is looking.
Ah, the job creating Freeports canard is back. See the other thread. We had them while in the EU… all the new trade deals the EU had arranged, and had in the pipeline, made them an anachronism… so they died off… the government let the legislation lapse that would enable more. There’s still lots of them in the EU, but they’re dropping out of use as well… due to all the new FTAs that the EU is signing around the world, which enable, er, free trade.
Welcoming back freeports is like welcoming the government giving out gas masks, having just deliberately used poisonous gas on its own population (in the hope that some of it’ll float over the channel and Irish Sea to show those foreigners who now has control).
alcolepone, the thread will fire back into life when johnson announces the gov decision on HS2 which is likely to be this week.
Right from the off this hads been a far right neoliberal idealogical project, driven entirely by dogma. Trivial things like reality aren’t allowed to make any unwelcome appearences
I'm somewhat waiting for the Commonwealth option ... should be fun watching as the nation with the largest GDP explains why they should be in charge and why the want FOM.
I see Boris's "bird" and his main "bitch" (sorry I know a bit 70s) are having a do over what Bojos next cabinet should look like?
Dont get elected if you want control, just lead the PM round by his knob and squeeze his balls....
Sorry apologies
Oldman - never apologise for being honest and truthful.
Always best to be the power behind the throne rather than sitting in the hot seat.
Cummings is dangerous. Anyone who is given to quoting Nietzsche to the exclusion of other thinkers needs watching. The scoundrel's philosopher of choice when it comes to pushing general nastiness.
I'm starting to wonder if the roost is going to be big enough for all the chickens coming home?
Just been reading that. Absolute madness! Complete and utter insanity!
So according to Pob, smart borders will be in place within 5 years.
Given the record on IT projects I’m guessing ten years and 50 billion quid later we still won’t have a working system.
And during that decade, big business will quietly shut up shop and relocate to the E.U. to save themselves the hassle
Still.... blue passports eh?
Still…. blue passports eh?
Today's wheeze is the bridge isn't it?
He ho... let the Hunger Games begin...
I'm in northern Italy. The radio in the taxi had a five minute piece about Brexit, followed by a good three minutes on the Irish elections. So it's still in the news.
I’m starting to wonder if the roost is going to be big enough for all the chickens coming home?
It's amazing the gall to talk about the necessity of border checks like he's just figured it out, and half the country haven't been saying it all along.
Gove's comments continue the trend of 'walking back' multiple unequivocal statements made by the tories upto the GE; now they have total control we're beginning to see what brexit will really mean.
Statements made by johnson and his senior acolytes prior to the GE are now being shown to be nothing more than empty words.
Yes, I know that many here - and elsewhere - were calling bollocks to all of johnson's words but surprising numbers either believed him or didn't care.
Either way there will be a huge price to be paid for this madness - economic pain being the most obvious.
We will have to see on Thursday what the cabinet reshuffle looks like, if there is an ingress of ERG nutters then thats the way its hoing.
Currently there are no signs of anything other than a hard brexit, in reality Boris has little choice if he wants to keep his majority post brexit then he needs the masses on his side and a hard Brexit delivers that on multiple levels by telling "jonny foreigner" to get stuffed, instigate the Blitz spirit (i.e suffer for your pride poor people) zero tariffs (cheap yankee chicken yee haa) shit loads of cheap imorted tat
Anything else has to many political compromises and trade offs.
Still…. blue passports eh?
Apparently they’ve still got loads of the red ones left, so they’re not going to do the blue ones for a bit. Or so I heard.
Frictionless Border you say?
Gove has just shot one of the unicorns in the face...🦄
'Frictionless trade with the EU will end in 2020' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51453189
Edit: seems that the bbc are several hours behind the papers
Frictionless Border you say?
Of course. Don’t go giving us this Project Fear stuff being banded about by… [checks notes]… Vote Leave’s Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. The bait and switch is complete, the conmen win. Have a nice wasted decade all.
kelvin
...Have a nice wasted decade all.
OTOH I think some of us will have a very fruitful decade. 🙂
If that’s a reference to Scotland not getting dragged through all this shit along with the rest of us… I fear you’ll be sadly disappointed.
I don’t think we will be beside you for the entire shitshow Kelvin. Just think; Carlisle will be like Tijuana.
Well, Wangerland is becoming more and more likely… but it’ll take more than a decade to come about, if it does.
We will have to see on Thursday what the cabinet reshuffle looks like, if there is an ingress of ERG nutters then thats the way its going
His present cabinet is full of brexiteer ultras. Not your ERG lot though. Gove, Patel, Javid, Truss, Kwatang etc are a bit of a different animal. They are absolutely rabid, fanatical free-marketeers who want to see complete deregulation of all areas and absolutely everything to be thrown open to 'the market'
These people are very different from your Bill Cash/Mark Francois style headbangers though. They're not your misty-eyed, nostalgic, flag-waving 'two world wars and a world cup' loons. They're not fussed about much of that. They're looking very much to the future. They've just used those union-jack-clad Faragists as convenient allies to get us to where we are now. They've now served their purpose and can be discarded
Given the size of his majority, and the complete absense of anything resembling an opposition, It's difficult to see Boris changing direction. He's well and truly on board with all of this. We are now finally really seeing what the final post-Brexit UK will look like.
See how 'No Deal' has now been re-branded as an 'Australia-style deal'. Well... thats just a no deal crash out thats been given another name to make it more palatable to people who aren't paying too much attention to the detail. The end result will be exactly the same.
They've always intended to crash us out. And they'll use the resulting economic and cultural chaos to remodel our society into some US/Ayn Rand dystopian uber-neoliberal nightmare where we become a completely deregulated tax haven/sweatshop off the coast of Europe. A subservient satellite of Trumps America.
Something to look forward too, eh?
Make the most of the next year, because at the end of it time will be being called on a lot of things we presently take for granted as part of living in a civilised society. The project they have in mind is going to make Thatcherism look like a tiny bit of economic rearranging
The EU have rejected the tories proposals on financial services outright - as was always obviously going to happen.
Barnier says EU will not give the UK “open-ended” equivalence recognition for financial services. That means one of the UK government’s demands (see today’s Financial Times’ splash) has been shot down immediately.
I thought Carlisle was already a bit like Tijuana.....
Barnier:
We will keep control of these tools and we will retain a free hand to take our decisions.
But...but...but, aren't 'we' meant to be the ones taking back control?