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Thing is if Johnson had any plums he could get a decent soft brexit deal thru 'cos labour would vote for it even if some of the tories didn't. Shame he has no cojones
He has made it clear tho that he is too scared of the ERG to make a deal because they will not accept the EUs red lines
He’d lose his job though TJ… and he likes playing at king of the world.
it’ll be like the millenium bug all over again.
You're either trolling or ignorant.
I am not sure he does Kelvin. He likes the idea of it but not the reality
dazh
Full Memberit’ll be like the millenium bug all over again.
Marvellous. You know why it's completely not like the millenium bug all over again? Because people spotted the disaster it could be well in advance and invested huge amounts of time and money and brainpower on fixing it, succesfully. There was a british standard in place to prevent worsening the y2k problem, in 1997. And it's estimated that over $300 billion was spent to fix it.
If the millenium bug had been like brexit, it'd be an argument between one mob of idiots saying it'll be absolutely fine and not to bother about anything because We Voted For It and Leave Means Leave and all we needed was Stiff Upper Lip... and another saying that actually resetting all the clocks to the 1900s would project Britain instantly back to being the most powerful country in the world and everyone else would look at our superior British clocks, and give us back all the colonies.
Boris has a problem with any kind of a deal that's been hanging over Brexit since the start of negotiations - the dumping issue. We were talking about it on STW as one of the objectives of Brexit not long after I worked out what this new word "Brexit" meant. Social, fiscal and environmental dumping is one of the main but little talked about objectives of Brexit. And the Europeans aren't too stupid to see it.
Fishing, paperwork, rsidents rights... they're all negotiable. The level playing field isn't. Barnier won't budge and even if he does half a dozen countries will veto.
The most important issues are the last to be talked about by the UK media but they've been the stumbling block all along. Brexit was about dumping and the ability to do that depends on a no deal. So Boris has a choice, a deal without dumping or no deal.
Taking back control depends on no deal, without that the only tangible gain is the end of freedom of movement, which is great if you're a couch-living suburban pensioner who hates his foreign EU neighbours because they speak funny, work hard and commute by car which is more traffic and clogs up the roads. This last paragraph paraphrases a particularly depressing conversation I had with someone with grandchildren using EU freedom of movement to work in Greece and France.
No matter how shitty things work out economically in the short term, I remain optimistic that the UK can gather it’s entrepreneurs together and have a seismic shift in where and how we do trade.
This is the kind of comment made by folk with no involvement whatsoever in the creation & running of commercial enterprises. The kind we've heard from for the last 4.5 years spouting bo**ox, usually retired gammon.
TJ does have a point long term however. This won’t be the end of brexit, it’ll move to a new phase where the nutters want to destroy whatever is agreed and move to a US style economy with all the things we supposedly don’t want yet keep voting for. Democracy is a bitch isn’t it!
I'll repeat my comment from a while back - "Brexit isn't the destination, it's the vehicle". And a more relevant one for the US "America, a rich country full of poor people".
Always worth remembering that Argentina was the worlds richest country at the turn of the 20th century and is now… Yes it can happen to the UK, there is nothing special about this country that means it won’t be turned into a basket case by populist politicians.
I used this example a few weeks ago in a FB discussion, boy did they laugh. But for me its downfall is a fact. And if you don't know history, you're bound to repeat it.
That’ll be the millennium bug where huge amounts of time and money were expended to make sure there weren’t issues, compared to Brexit where no one quite knows just what is happening in a couple of weeks.
Yep, about 18 months of my life and near as dammit 100 return flights as I PM'd a global business' Y2K programme. Once we'd managed to persuade the Exec that we had an 'issue'.
Whether they will admit that is something else
Nope. In fact they'll deny even voting for it - or say they didn't or can't remember.
While the Argentina comparison is doing the rounds (and if remember correctly, Thatcher and Argentina were big fans of swapping notes on economic policy)
Brexit was about dumping and the ability to do that depends on a no deal
Absolutely. They want to tear everything up and instigate a race to the bottom from which their rich friends will benefit enormously at everyone else’s expense. The opposite of a ‘level playing field’
This has always been the intention. The EU always knew this and we’re never going to allow it, so no deal was the only way it would ever be achieved.
They also wanted to stress test the EU model to see if they could tempt other countries to get involved in their jettisoning of central regulation and control in favour of selfish US style model
They wanted to undermine the very fundamentals of the EU
Well, that went well.
It failed so catastrophically on that score that for the next few decades we will stand as the benchmark for self-defeating economic stupidity and dangerous nationalism while simultaneously elevating the EU to the poster boy for economic cooperation.
There’s only one party that will ‘prosper mightily’ here and it’s certainly not going to be us
This country is now an international pariah
And for what...?
Pretty much nails it. So many mistakes on both sides, and all largely due to people who are unable to look around and think about how things look from the other side.
https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1336106593759465472?s=21
Fishing, paperwork, rsidents rights… they’re all negotiable. The level playing field isn’t. Barnier won’t budge and even if he does half a dozen countries will veto.
100% this
Whilst the brexiteers are happy to make as much noise as possible about the bizarrely emotive subject of fishing, that's just a red herring
Its deregulation they crave
But for Gove etc tbe dangers of no deal to UK industry & the union are surely too great
Johnson will crumble & concede enough to get a deal
Kimbers - they do not care. Either deluded about the "sunlit uplands" or activly want no deal for the race to the bottom on standards and protections or too scared of the ERG purity spiral
I cannot believe Starmer is considering voting for a deal. I hope someone persuades him otherwise. It would be so damaging and foolish. it will hammer the final nail in the coffin in Scotland. He must make the tories own it. Look at how voting for section 50 thingy played out. Labour shared the blame
I cannot believe Starmer is considering voting for a deal
You and me both Uncle Jezza. I can't believe they're even contemplating it. Its a complete no-brainer, surely?
They need to hand full ownership of this upcoming disaster to Boris and the ERG, because they absolutely bloody do own it. This is THEIR project. THEIR disaster
The labour party should be being very vocal in pointing out this truism now and as this disaster unfolds
We're past the point now where even if we get some flimsy, threadbare 'deal', the damage is already done.
January 1st is going to be a car crash. It needs to have the Tory brand stamped exclusively all over it
I am not really convinced about letting the Tories 'own it' as far as I am concerned they already own it, however if labour were to let a no deal go through (with all the disaster that would entail) then as far as I am concerned then they would own the mess too simply because they let it happen. If labour vote to accept a deal they can at least say it was the lesser damaging of the 2 options.
If they abstain a deal will go thru anyway. I don't think they should vote a deal down - just not support it. You may think they own it anyway but the Tory press will use the " you voted for it you cannot criticise it" line
It all boils down to what has always been the joker in the pack...
How many ERG headbangers, hell-bent on their glorious No Deal Brexit, will not vote for any deal, no matter how thin.
I am not so sure a deal would get through with Labour abstaining (plenty ERG no deal nutjobs) plus Labour could be at pains to point out it is a shit deal but better than the other option. Also with the way this whole Brexit has went I think a no deal could get through only owing to thinking it cannot get any worse it then always does.
If a vote on a deal fails the first time it would be brought back with modifications. Labour could vote for it then but IMO there are not nearly enough ERG headbangers to mean a tory only vote on it would cause it to fall. Remember the vast majority of tory mps are remainers!
Labour must not vote for a deal.
It's worth remembering at this point exactly how deluded the nutter wing of the Tory party is. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on channel 4 news last night will note that they still honestly believe the absolute shite they've been spouting for years. They honestly believe that at the eleventh hour (HELLOOOO.... We're already there!!!) the EU will capitulate and allow the cakism of allowing us access to the single market, sans the costs and obligations, and Boris will return home triumphant to our glorious colonial future
They're ****ing insane
But the bottom line is, they won't vote for anything less than that
They're all nonchalantly ok with no deal as they'll all be safely insulated from the fallout
https://twitter.com/Hepworthclare/status/1336030743772995585?s=20
Starmer is in the same fix as Corbyn was (not that the anti-corbynites will admit it). Most of his party want him to oppose brexit, many of the voters he needs in red wall consituencies want out by any means necessary. He can't oppose a deal now, it would be political suicide. Since he won the leadership he has kept quiet on brexit by saying it's decided and Boris needs to get a deal. If a deal is presented to him he has to support it.
he can still say - its a shite deal so we abstain and then point out all the failings in the deal and how it does not stand up to what we were promised
Almost total victory for one of Britain's great political movements*.
https://twitter.com/JohnWest_JAWS/status/1336032579150090241
And with Priti in charge, how long until the entire manifesto is enacted?
*sarcasm
If a deal is presented to him he has to support it.
He really doesn't. He can abstain and say to the Tory party... over to you.... you broke it, you own it.
Right from the off, this has been an internal Tory party argument, so leave it to them to sort out this utter farce that is entirely of their own making.
You say many 'Red Wall voters want out at any cost'. We'll see how that's looking after Brexit, shall we? How the reality measures up to the sunlit uplands they were promised.
You've seen the present polling in 'Red Wall' seats that went Tory? They already know they've been conned. Lots of promises were made about what Brexit would deliver to them. All of them lies.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1334559879764340736?s=20
My oh my, what can you say to a video like that.
He really doesn’t. He can abstain and say to the Tory party… over to you…. you broke it, you own it.
Abstaining might have been an option if he hadn't painted himself into a corner as a serial abstainer with no opinion on the biggest issues of the day. Abstaining would be a gift to Johnson, and it would irreparably damage him in the eyes of the voters.
We’ll see how that’s looking after Brexit, shall we? How the reality measures up to the sunlit uplands they were promised.
I see we're back to wishing for the catastrophe in the vain hope people will change their minds and realise how stupid they were. If you honestly think that's how brexit voters will react then you don't understand human nature.
Abstaining might have been an option if he hadn’t painted himself into a corner as a serial abstainer with no opinion on the biggest issues of the day.
And we're back to this again. Abstaining does not mean that you don't have an opinion on a subject.
Far from it.
It means, in this case, both of the options here are truly shite. The party opposite us, who have been in power for ten years have delivered us up to this point.. delivering a huge shit sandwich and asking if you want brown or white bread, so let them decide. Whatever happens, remember that it is entirely their fault.
The labour parties job is to point out where the blame lies, and remind everyone the level of deception that's gone on here, not be complicit in delivering it (as you-know-who was more than happy to do)
I see we’re back to wishing for the catastrophe
Nobody is wishing it to be a catastrophe. We're just being realists. I hope to god that I'm wrong and through some miracle, it's not as bad as I'm pretty certain it's going to be. Unfortunately, the likelihood of that is slim to non-existant
If starmer votes for the deal then he no longer represents the membership at large and has diminished himself hugely - and has hammered in the final nails for labour in scotland
It would be a huge blunder to vote for a deal because of a few racists in the northern towns might be upset if he does not. this is a test of leadership - is he a leader or a weathervane politician
He must make the tories own the mess.
its not wishing for catastrophe. Its understanding that it is a catastrophe
Anyone who saw Peter Bone on channel 4 news last night
Yep, saw him.
He didn't GAS that what he's wanted near enough his entire political career will be shit, just like we said it would be. As said he basically shrugged his shoulders.
The interviewer should've called him out.
We're ****ed and he'll just slope off and no doubt say "it'd been different if I was in charge".
#boilsmypi55
Surely, if Labour vote for a bad deal (which I don’t think they should, I think they should leave the party in power to pick from the two shit options their leader has created for them), that’s just them acknowledging that a bad deal is better than no deal… and a bad deal can be improved upon if we ever get rid of those currently screaming about sovereignty above all else?
Owen Jones is a disaster socialist and thus also a deluded bellend.
He really thinks that an economic shock will convince enough people to reform unions, demand action etc.
It won't. People will be too busy climbing over each other and punching each other in the face in the scramble for a wage. They did it for bog roll and penne a few months back.
And even if they did, on what basis would this isolated socialist utopia interact with the rest of the world?
He should stick to rooting out and critiquing hypocrisy in our current society and leave the 'vision' stuff alone. And the paint thinners.
Whether labour vote for the deal or not is just a special interest group side show - very few of the voting public pay any attention to what happens in Parliament - most would struggle to name their MP!
Just because UK Gov doesn't sign a trade deal with EU by the end of the TP doesn't mean they never will. A few months of medicine shortages, higher prices for goods, lorries parked all over Kent, factories closing, banks moving head offices out of UK and queueing with the non-EU nationals at airports may change views, and the offer from EU will not get any better.
Mr Johnson and UK Cabinet would have to be utter thickos not to realise that. Sigh.
hels - thats assuming they are not malign in their motivations.
IMO they actively want a no deal outcome so they can get rid of worker and environmental protections. all the "negotiations" are is an attempt to blame the EU for no deal. Every time a deal looks close its been sabotaged by Johnson or Frost - see Frosts latest demand about ownership of fishing boats or Johnsons internal markets bill
Just because UK Gov doesn’t sign a trade deal with EU by the end of the TP doesn’t mean they never will.
I agree.
It would be a huge blunder to vote for a deal because of a few racists in the northern towns might be upset if he does not.
It's exactly the same conundrum Corbyn had. Please the party or the voters? He chose the party, we all know where that ended. It's weird that those on here who preach 'dealing with the world as it is' don't seem to extend that principle to brexit.
It's also odd to hear people who slagged Corbyn for being 'indecisive' and not having a clear view on brexit are now calling for Starmer to do exactly the same. If you don't think labour should vote for a deal, then on the principle that they should express a clear view, they should vote against. They're not going to get away with abstaining whilst also claiming they have a strong view on it.
If you don’t think labour should vote for a deal, then on the principle that they should express a clear view, they should vote against.
NO, THEY ****ING SHOULDN'T!
They do not have to facilitate this car crash!
They’re not going to get away with abstaining whilst also claiming they have a strong view on it.
Get away with? What they would be saying is that they refuse to back either of two options which are both terrible for the country and are the end result of 4 years of total and complete ineptitude that is 100% the fault of the Tory party's headbanger wing led by a certain Mr B Johnson
They do not have to facilitate this car crash!
They don't have much of a choice. Yes or No, that's all people want to hear. That's what people regard as leadership. They were crucified in the election for not having a clear policy on brexit, yet now you want them to repeat that mistake, and in an environment where the leader is already branded as a principle-free flip-flopping opportunist? You'll be wanting Starmer to call for a second referendum next.
Please don’t make this another Corbyn vs Starmer thread Dazh, the tedium is too much.
Yes or No, that’s all people want to hear.
Distilling down complex issues into a binary yes/no question is exactly what got us in this mess in the first place.
Most people can appreciate that the real world is more nuanced
It's got nothing to do with Corbyn now, but the issue on how labour deal with brexit is still a very live one. For my money I thought Starmer had the right approach to brexit, which was to accept the message that the voters expressed in the election and stop trying to frustrate it. That still stands, and abstaining will send the wrong message.
Distilling down complex issues into a binary yes/no question is exactly what got us in this mess in the first place
True, but that's where we are. Deal with the world as it is, I wonder who has told me that before? 🙂
What was the message Dazh? Specifically as regards an unseen deal that may or may not be brought back by Johnson this month? Back it, reject it, or leave it to the party of government to sort?
Dealing with the world as it is does not mean the labour party voting to facilitate a Tory car crash which will enable them to share the blame and shout 'well you voted for it' when it all inevitably goes tits up.
If there were ever a matter for the party to collectively abstain on, while making fully clear why, is to help the Tory party (temporarily) sorting out their decades long internal feud
Let them get on with it and make them own the fallout
What was the message Dazh?
I think that's the problem. Even after a general election where the party who had one single policy to 'get brexit done' won a massive majority, some still wonder what it was the voters were saying. It beggars belief to be honest.
The voters have been as clear as they can on what they want. If Johnson gets a deal then Starmer has very little choice but to support it. Or do labour have to lose another election before they get the message?
Let them get on with it and make them own the fallout
If it were that easy I'd agree with you. But we all know it will never be that easy. If labour are seen to be standing in the way of brexit again, or complicit in not making it work, they will be blamed, not the tories. That's how politics works in this country.
The voters have been as clear as they can on what they want. If Johnson gets a deal then Starmer has very little choice but to support it. Or do labour have to lose another election before they get the message?
I thought the voters wanted out, well, the thick ones anyway. The ones that can do maths and have a vague understanding of how things work could live with an abstention.
If labour are seen to be standing in the way of brexit again, or complicit in not making it work, they will be blamed, not the tories.
So... If they vote against a deal they are not making it work but if they vote for it they are standing in the way of Brexit. See that thing Binners keeps going on about involving brightly lit and signposted elephant traps? This is one of them.
So, what’s the message Dazh? Leave it to the party they voted into government on the basis of an oven ready deal, and them being the ones to get Brexit done? Or vote down any deal because people want no deal no surrender full fat sovereignty? Or only support a deal if it delivers what was promised? I have no idea how to read the last election and translate it into what the losing parties should do when presented with a vote on a deal we haven’t seen.
My vierw is very differnt. there is a clear majority that disagree with brexit. Very few brexiteers are labour supporters. If he votes for a deal than he owns the inevitable failure
If starmer votes for a deal that the end of the labour party as a party of government.
He must make the tories own the disaster that is brexit
but if they vote for it they are standing in the way of Brexit.
Sorry you've lost me. I thought I was being quite clear that doing anything other than supporting a deal will be seen as frustrating brexit.
He must make the tories own the disaster that is brexit
There is no way to do that. As I said to binners, if there was I would agree. If they don't support a deal they will be accused of resisting brexit, of hoping its a failure, and will then be blamed when that failure becomes apparent. There is no end game where the tories are held up as the lone culprits. You're a seasoned political watcher, what makes you think that the tories won't get away with this? The only hope for labour is to remove brexit as an issue, and the only way to do that is to accept it and support it.
What if supporting a deal goes against what people who voted Conservative want from Brexit? What if Johnson agrees to give up some “Sovereignty”? I really don’t think that any clear message was given by the electorate as regards a vote on a deal that we have not seen.
I really don’t think that any clear message was given by the electorate as regards a vote on a deal that we have not seen.
Sigh, it's like the last year never happened. Is that really what you would like Starmer to say to the voters he needs to win back in the red wall constituencies?
The message was that many people wanted Brexit. They have it. Now, what are the new arrangements? How on earth do you know that any deal we haven’t seen is one that those “get Brexit done” voters want, and want MPs to support? And what about all the other voters? What would they want the MPs who represent them to do? I have no idea… you seem to be sure that you know… which is just marvellous.
Some want the opposition leaders to "unite" with Johnson if he brings back a deal. Some want any deal rejected, to gain some year zero reset. Some want opposition MPs to leave the Conservatives to it. You've picked the first, and so it seems has Starmer... and I have no qualms with that... it's a politically wise choice, just not the one I'd go for... but don't dress that decision up as being the "will of the people" or because of a "clear message from the voters"... there is no universal will, no unified message of intent, as regards an unseen deal. All options will have detractors and supporters. There is probably no option which most people would be happy with. As ever with this little misadventure.
It's all conjecture though... a vote may never be held... a deal might not happen... or might not get past the cabinet... or enough Conservatives might quietly make it clear that they'll wreck it... parliament could well never get to have their say. Ironically, that could well fit in with a message sent at the last election...
Sigh, it’s like the last year never happened. Is that really what you would like Starmer to say to the voters he needs to win back in the red wall constituencies?
in 4 years time those voters wont want to admit to voting for the brexit train wreck we have coming (even with a deal its a huge blow to the country & fixes precisely 0 of the day to day problems they were promised it would)
Theyve u-turned on the limited & specific law breaking on the IMB
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1336298315487567873
Looks like BloJo’s found a way of running away.
That gov.uk announcement is a promising read. Could you not have shared it without that photo though…!
I see there was a post referring to Owen jones a page back, he’s an irreverence and not to mention a mouthy little dick that swings whatever way the wind begins to settle
https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1335983531181432837?s=21
Taking the US as example, the democrats have been a clear opposition to Trump and the EU is very willing to deal with Biden now Trump is going.
If Labour want to sort out a deal with Europe in the future they'd be better off abstaining or opposing anything Boris comes up with so that if ever they get back into power they can vote some EU compatible laws and try to salvage something, perhaps getting a Norway style relationship and pay whatever it costs.
Yes or No, that’s all people want to hear.
Whoa! Just been put flat on my back by the most sweeping of generalisations.
That is utter tosh. If Labour vote for a shitty deal the tory press will forever throw the 'rubber stamped by Labour' line out.
Abstain and leave the man child Johnson sat in the shitty nappy.
It seems the IMB law breaking was just another ruse to pretend we are “giving” something at the last minute.
Lib Dems, tuition fees, Starmers 6 tests...
Labour can support the deal, they will be reminded everyday about the crap that follows if they do.
The problem is though, perhaps BloJo won’t get his deal past the Brextremists in his own party if everyone else abstains.
So that would mean no deal.
Is Starmer willing to trash the country just so he can say well I didn’t vote for something slightly better than this? Even if that something wasn’t as good as the majority of the country wanted?
The problem is though, perhaps BloJo won’t get his deal past the Brextremists in his own party if everyone else abstains.
That's Johnson's problem. How the pieces fall if the loons cause a No Deal could be very interesting. You never know with stuff like this. GE next 2021 is not necessarily out of the question if we go over the cliff...
But ultimately, Boris, you cowardly shit - this is what happens when you tell different lies to different people.
Is Starmer willing to trash the country just so he can say well I didn’t vote for something slightly better than this? Even if that something wasn’t as good as the majority of the country wanted?
Hmm, so it's ok for the Tories to trash the country?
Let's put the blame where the blame needs to be put - the Tories!
In the unlikely situation that half the Tories vote down the deal… then Johnson is out, the party is spilt, again, and a new leader will be pushed into an election next year in the middle of the no deal fallout. So… if Johnson can’t get a deal through parliament on the votes of his own MPs alone… parliament will not be given that vote.
Today’s noise from all directions suggest the WA as regards NI will be stuck to though. That is genuinely good news, if kept to.
That’s Johnson’s problem.
In a functional democracy, with an intelligent and impartial media, politicians not beholden to corporate interests, and a voting public which assesses issues rationally and objectively, it would absolutely Johnson's problem. However we live in a country where the press are rabidly pro-tory, the national broadcaster is riddled with Boris's mates and hangers on, and public who will swallow anything presented to them on the 6 o'clock news or read in the Daily Mail. So what makes you think that Johnson will be blamed when it goes tits up?
Will the bill/deal get more than one chance to pass? If so Starmer just needs to leave it to the Tories for one or two passes & if it goes to a third then say they'll support it to put the country first because the Tories won't.
The deal we are going to get if any - and I still think its 99% there will be no deal - will be such poor stuff that Starmer must not vote for it. Only about 60 tories would rebel and vote down a deal so it still passes easily
If Starmner votes for it he will never be able to critise it again. it would be a colossal blunder to vote for it.
I still think its 99% there will be no deal
For how long thou 🙂
Looks like Jim has completely jumped ship to Hambach and Monaco.
Him and Dyson have a right laugh at the little people.
Well they do have to be based on a market that will be able to afford their cars. That's not going to be the uk soon
Jim Ratcliffe in "borderline sociopathic levels of business cynicism" shocker. Remember Grangemouth anyone? No, not the strike, the fact that the whole thing was provoked by Ineos purely as a negotiating tool for the Forties deal. "Yeah? You think I'm bluffing? Look, I'll totally close the plant for lolz, still think I'm bluffing?"
He is a genius tbf, just, unfortunately he's the sort of genius that cheerfully ruins lives to make an extra penny.
In a functional democracy, with an intelligent and impartial media, politicians not beholden to corporate interests, and a voting public which assesses issues rationally and objectively
Er, like where?
Looking forward to Labour screwing this up and letting the Tories off with it by voting for their deal, same as lib Dems and SNP* giving them the 2019 election and the lib Dems going into coalition with them.
It's weird how thick politicians are!
*TBF to the SNP, they were probably being really cynical - they need the UK to be at its worst to get Sexit. Morally questionable, but at least using the brain.
I am laughing at the thought of Johnson going head to head with Von der Leyen. Its hardly an equal contest and as we all know Johnson has no idea how to deal with powerful intelligent women. Oh for a spycam on the wall. do you think he will do his usual thing of trying to patronise her?
It might turn out for the best.
As a typical public schoolboy with a Thatcher fixation and a matron/nanny complex, when faced with a female in a position of authority he’ll no doubt do exactly what she tells him to do
If they leave Boris on his own we may well be back in the single market and the customs Union by tomorrow night
I would do anything she told me. Those eyes...............
More likely to try and her. Maybe he'll turn up with a ** ** and start with the line "I'm here to be ****** over, would you like to start with this?"
I have no idea how strict censorship is so I've left a few words to your imaginations.
Er, like where?
That was pretty much my point.