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The US "attention" on the UK was as much about using the UK as a gateway for American goods and services into the EU as anything. Now that we are out that avenue is no longer available. Plus why deal with the UK when the large trading block that is the EU is the same distance away?
Pelosi has gone on record as stating that without the GFA in place there will be no trade deal between the UK and the US. The Democrats have strengthened their grip on the House so that condition isn't going away soon, if Biden becomes president then it's an even more entrenched position.
One of the consequences of the GFA is that the citizens of Northern Ireland are subject to the ECHR which means that the UK can't repeal the Human Rights Act of 1988 without breaking the GFA.
A UK trade deal is nowhere near the top of Biden’s to do list.
Interesting that Biden could use this as a way to force the UK closer to the EU which would benefit US companies already operating here and help keep a native Anglophone country as a base for European operations for US companies.
Yeah, it's basically two opposing mindsets- for the US, a strong and fairly unified and close EU is a counter to Russia and China and also easier for the US itself to deal with- they lose some of the "position of power" but gain better allies, and of course it's easier for them to do trade etc with one bloc than it is dozens of countries.
But that wasn't compatible with Trump's zero sum vision where anything that helped another country was automatically a bad point, and where a disunited EU and shrunken UK was good news because the only tool he understood was a sledgehammer.
Obviously there is genuine debate about the rights and wrongs here, for me it's a no brainer and always has been, better to build stuff than smash it even if building is harder and doesn't make as nice a noise.
And on that note, anyone else noticed how much more stuff is coming from China by rail for at least part of its trip now? Bridges or walls.
And on that note, anyone else noticed how much more stuff is coming from China by rail for at least part of its trip now?
That's the belt & road initiative linking into existing european rail network; it's way quicker than 6 weeks by container ship.
DIRFT is probably the best known UK intermodal terminal.
and help keep a native Anglophone country as a base for European operations for US companies
Ireland! The GAFAs have already made their choices, they pay **** all tax there as a bonus. As for just Anglophone, the Germans I know speak better English than the Brits on daytime TV.
That’s the belt & road initiative linking into existing european rail network; it’s way quicker than 6 weeks by container ship.
Yeah its crazy, I get tracking data for lenovo kit we order in work leaves a factory in a huge city in China I've never heard of a day or 2 later its in Kyrgyzstan, then turkey, then Holland, then calais , then its here, I imagine it'll be getting stuck in Holland /a Farage garage come Jan 1st
Supplier email today (major life sciences who supply healthcare & covid look abs across UK emailed to say post Jan they will be flying a lot of stuff but some stiff will still come via chunnel so expect delays
Separate email telling us prices will be rising
More complete and utter Brexit insanity
https://twitter.com/nationcymru/status/1324442123710717953?s=21
More complete and utter Brexit insanity
Almost as though it's a ****ing stupid idea, isn't it?
What I can’t get my head around is the infrastructure not being in place.
If I had to needlessly but urgently create an entire country’s customs infrastructure, from scratch, complete with IT systems, I’d definitely put someone like Michael Gove in charge of the project
I’m sure it’ll all be fine
Supplier email today (major life sciences who supply healthcare & covid look abs across UK emailed to say post Jan they will be flying a lot of stuff but some stiff will still come via chunnel so expect delays
Air freight is pretty challenging now, not getting better in Jan, is it? Plus there'll still be extra delays
That Welsh lorry link is interesting. Wonder what else is incoming?
shipping anything anywhere outside this country is an epic fail at the moment. all the major couriers have been in a race to the bottom for a few years and of course now the entire system is at more than full stretch. UPS have even stopped giving out compensation for not meeting their obligations because 'stuff'. this will only improve i'm sure.
Loved the Question Time Lisa Nandy quote: “Oven ready deal when the Boris forget to turn the oven on”.
Loved the Question Time Lisa Nandy quote: “Oven ready deal when the Boris forget to turn the oven on”.
He tried to do cheese on toast when he had the munchies after yet another evening on the piss. He turned the gas on, but then passed out in a drunken stupor. Someone (reality) is just about to flick the light switch the next cold, stark morning....
the Germans I know speak better English than the Brits on daytime TV.
Of course you're right about Ireland but doing business in Germany in English is not as easy as in an Anglophone country. Perfect English is common but not as ubiquitous in Germany as it is in Scandinavia or the Netherlands and there are more communication barriers than in France, in my experience at work (IT).
That's not to denigrate German education of course, it's vastly better than the pitiful attempts we make in the UK, for which I am still hugely grateful.
Thanks Truss…
I've avoided this thread for the last year.
With a grown up in the Whitehouse what are our options now?
No border in Ireland must surely lead us into route B.
Are we back to a border in the sea?
Thanks Truss…
Jesus Christ - that's the whole Brexit fallacy laid bare right there isn't it. Let's expend lots of time, money and effort on getting back to where we would have been without it, and call it a victory.
I'd imagine that with a Biden victory confirmed there is now absolute blind panic in number 10. This is the mother of all reality intrusions on the fantasyland of Brexit.
What we'll no doubt witness this week is doublespeak of biblical proportions, even for a natural liar like Boris. The UK is going to have to effectively cave in on pretty much everything now that the GFA is front and centre and Trumps every other consideration (no pun intended). But Boris is going to have to try and sell this to the ERG No Deal headbangers as a victory
Crashing us out with no deal is one thing. Doing it knowing that the mythical UK/US trade deal is dead in the water unless the UK accepts regulatory alignment? Some form of a customs union to avoid a hard border? Single market access (complete with charges of course)? is another thing entirely.
I'm sure the EU will be happy to help out with the optics, once Boris has caved in on all previous demands. He's got a week. They'll be running around like headless chickens today.
I wonder if when all the dust settles, we will find out that Brexit means simply losing the opt-outs that Margaret Thatcher negotiated thirty years ago, and nothing more.
That and being used as the international benchmark for self-destructive idiocy.
Let's be brutally frank about this. This has shredded Britain's international credibility. And that's before whatever humiliating concessions are forced on Boris this week and the civil war that will erupt in the Tory party (again) as a result.
Tying a country in knots for 4 solid years, expending all that time, money, and effort, as well as all the political and economic carnage its wreaked, to achieve the square root of **** all!
Its tragic
I still expect no deal. thats what the aim of those driving this for the last 20 years is. A low regulation, low wage, low protection economy
Anyone sensible knows this is a disaster in waiting but that matters nothing to those driving this.
No deal has always been the aim. anything else they say is lies.
Until yesterday I'd have agreed with you. But a Biden victory throws it into sharp relief. The American government won't be standing for Johnsons shit when it comes to the GFA. He can forget his internal market bill and any fantasy about borders in Kent. The GFA is sacrosanct and now takes priority over everything
The game just changed completely. I don't doubt that for the true headbangers this will make no odds, but despite what they say publicly, apparently, even previous Brexiteers like Rishi Sunak and even Gove are now warning Johnson that a No Deal would now be absolute insanity
Binners - I do not think it changes much at all. those driving this want us "free" off any constraints to be come a money laundering site ( even more so than already) and to have no workers or environmental protection. they care not on jot for the welfare of the people of this country. they want it to be a way of making more money for them
ally this to the idiots who hark back to the days of empire
No deal is coming. Its the only possible end point now.
No deal with no border in Ireland.
Is that achievable?
Please forgive my ignorance but would a threat to the GFA possibly result in renewed terrorist activity against UK government?
No deal with no border in Ireland.
Is that achievable?
Not unless there is a unified Ireland and thus no border. The brexiteers would be quite happy with this.
Brexit in any form cannot happen without making a border on the island of Ireland.
would a threat to the GFA possibly result in renewed terrorist activity against UK government?
Yes - unlikely but possible and plausible. More likely just attacks on border infrastucture
Yes, with a "border" or whatever name they try to disguise it as in the sea. Boris no longer needs the DUP votes that tied May's hands. The EU is quite happy to make exceptions to keep Ireland united whilst respecting obligations under international law by considering the customs border to run down the North channel, the Irish sea and St georges Channel. All sorts of paper work will be required for NI but there wil be no border in Ireland.
@zippykona - there are four options:
1. Hard border between Ulster and the rest of Ireland.
2. Border (by whatever name) down the Irish Sea
3. A united Ireland
4. Remain in EU, or at least the single market.
Anything else, tech solutions anyone?, is just bluster and avoiding the facts. As with many things there's no easy answer and whichever of the four you choose has downsides to some or most of the population of both Ireland and the UK.
Remain in EU, or at least the single market.
I have a feeling that we actually need to remain in the customs union to avoid any kind of border.
For example, Switzerland is in the SM, not in the CU, and has quite elaborate border infrastructure and inspections. Similarly for the Norway border.
That's what Theresa May's deal was trying to do (ISTR), but Boris killed that.
mrsheen
Free MemberPlease forgive my ignorance but would a threat to the GFA possibly result in renewed terrorist activity against UK government?
Definitely on the cards. Though realistically, even where the beligerants kept weapons, resources etc they've not been active for a long time now, networks and cells and funding and training will be pretty much in bits. And US-irish people's enthusiasm for funding terrorism probably hasn't returned. The highly developed IRA etc of before doesn't exist now and I'm not sure it ever would again, not without things having got very very bad indeed. And they don't have access to a network of suicidal nutters which is the easy way round that.
But simple attacks, maybe not on downing street or tory party conferences, but on border posts and similar? Or border post staff as they drive home? Or on people in NI with Irish or EU flags or number plates? Absolutely. Lone attacker stuff, the sort that's really bloody difficult to prevent with intelligence and policing. And the trouble with that is, apart from the obvious, is that the little unobtrusive and fairly friendly border post like between switzerland and france, like a lot of people seem to imagine, isn't going to work because it has to be an actual firm border. And that immediately means a bigger target, which in turn means you need more security not to do the border work but to protect the border post just so it can exist...
I think in a lot of brexit fantasists or just-haven't-given-it-any-thought people's heads, an irish/british border would be Boris Johnston waving a little flag and cheerily waving you through from the EU into Freedomville. Not a bloody big lorry park with miles of steel fences and dudes with guns.
Personally I don't think it's as clever as a calculated attempt to benefit from disaster capitalism. I think it's all about populist glory, nothing more.
More complete and utter Brexit insanity
This kind of thing has become so everyday that my usual 'WHAT THE ACTUAL ****?' has been replaced with just a sigh and a shrug.
I strongly suspect the 't word' will be making a reappearance soon with regards to the Irish border. No, not 'twunt', although that would be better. No it is 'technology' you need to be able to create a customs border that has no hard infrastructure.
Cue the engagement by De Pfeffel and his mates of a bunch of snake oil salesmen consultants who will trouser a fortune by displaying the one necessary quality - not spitting in the soup by accurately staring that the whole thing is impossible and a ridiculous waste of money. After all, that is why the likes of Dildo Harding get 'employed', the civil service would just tell De Pfeffel and mates the truth. Much better to pay millions to shysters than face reality....
Please forgive my ignorance but would a threat to the GFA possibly result in renewed terrorist activity against UK government?
Possibly. Unless you've spent some time in norn oirland Its quite easy to forget just how fragile and tentative the peace is. There are plenty on both sides who would love to exploit any potential situation to further their own agenda's. The casual complacency from the Brexiteers has been disgusting when you consider how hard-fought the GFA was.
But what no deal would result in is some form of border infrastructure being put in place. Its simply unavoidable despite David Davis and his 'because... technology' crap. You can forget your fantasy borders in Kent nonsense. This infrastructure would immediately become hugely symbolic, and not in a good way, and signal a return to the bad old days. This would then immediately make it the target for resentment from all sides.
More importantly, though, it would then become a trade border between two competing economies as the UK slashes corporate taxes, jettisons workers' rights, food standards, environmental controls, and whatever else in a race to the bottom. Thus it would become an absolute magnet for all manner of smuggling operations, with all the trouble that entails.
It's worth remembering that the UK couldn't enforce this border to any worthwhile degree with thousands of troops, watchtowers all over the place, stop and search, loads of military bases, internment, massive undercover operations, cameras everywhere and helicopters constantly overhead.
How do you think it's going to go now?
Personally I don’t think it’s as clever as a calculated attempt to benefit from disaster capitalism. I think it’s all about populist glory, nothing more.
Nah, that's how they sell it to the little englanders so they'll vote against their own best interests whilst waving plaggy union jacks (made in China) and banging on about 'sovrunty' and being 'swamped'.
Not even they'd be stupid enough to vote for it if the strap line was "Help us and our mates to make a killing whilst making your lives poorer and acting against the best interests of the country we are supposed to represent". Well, most of them anyway.
Biden has a lot of work to do internally within the US to be worrying about Brexit.
I've just heard Boris on Radio 4. Sounds very much like he's getting his excuses in early and laying the groundwork to cave in to the EU this week. I'm sure Dom is working on a catchy 3 word slogan to try and sell it
Biden won't worry, he'll act if Boris is naughty in Ireland. What would you include in sanctions and put punitive tarifs on if you were him? I'd do vehicles first. 🙂 But the threat should be enough.
"stop the flounce" ?
Personally I don’t think it’s as clever as a calculated attempt to benefit from disaster capitalism. I think it’s all about populist glory, nothing more.
There are two driving forces - disaster capitalism and a drive to deregulate. Its been a 20+ year campaign. Johnson is there for the populist glory but he is not the driver. the drivers are Murdoch, the barclay brothers and various other shady figures in the background
Biden has a lot of work to do internally within the US to be worrying about Brexit.
This.
Brexit is just something another country is doing.
The Americans will only care for what they can exploit from it, which is why Trump was interested.
Biden has a lot of work to do internally within the US to be worrying about Brexit.
He doesn’t actually have to do anything though, does he? He’s already done it. It’s common knowledge what he thinks about Brexit and the GFA. There will be no trade deal with America. Full stop. And he’ll be prioritising relations with the EU, not the UK.
By the look of that article in the Brexpress it looks like they’re setting up the narrative for a bigclimb down this week and, as usual, everything will all be somebody else’s fault
I don’t care who they blame, all I’m hoping is that the US election result might possibly have rescued us from no deal lunacy, as reality bites
While Brexit was initially thought to have weakened the EU, the opposite has happened. Covid has shown what a positive force the EU can be without the British veto. The balance of power in the EU has tipped away from the austerity fanatics to the benefit of the populace, who see the EU in a more favourable light. This is not a good time to be arguing with Barnier, he has a continent behind him.
I’m sure Dom is working on a catchy 3 word slogan to try and sell it
"Bite pillow hard"?
Surely all but the very densest of hardline brexiteer nutters must realise that Barnier is holding all the aces and we’ve a hand full of jokers
There are now only two options
1. Massive climb down, accepting all EU demands, while waving victory flags
2. The chaos of a No Deal on top of the economic hit of Covid, resulting in a full scale implosion of the economy
Faces with those 2 choices, you’d think that there was only realistically one option. Then you like at who’s in power.
@Edukator I am not sure how legal (from a WTO/ international law point of view), it would be for US to impose trade sanctions on UK because of breach of the Belfast Agreement.
The WTO is currently next to irrelevant, as regards holding the big players to account. Little England complaining about being badly treated by any of them will result in little more than shrugs, and perhaps a ruling that we go can ahead and reciprocate... to which any big player we are playing trade wars with will just say... "do your worst".
The US has already imposed trade sanctions on the UK, Greyspoke. The Whisky tax for example, all with the blessing of the WTO because of Airbus subsidies - wings are made in Bristol.
We generally refor to the Belfast Agreement as the GFA, Good friday Agreement, on this forum.
Exacctly @Edukator, that type of response is allowed in international law as it is a tit-for-tat remedy for a wrong against you, and the WTO agreement, whilst not expressly allowing it, does not expressly disapply that rule of international law so countries do it. The WTO courts are hopelessly clogged up though that is largely a result of the US not appointing judges to it.
Have I missed some nuance as to how one names the agreement?
NB the US sanctions are technically against the EU, I guess the US will have to continue them, or part of them, against the UK after January if it wants.
Actually, playing nicely with the WTO is one thing one might hope for from Biden, so maybe he will stop blocking the appointment of judges (which was a Trump thing).
Airbus subsidies – wings are made in Bristol.
Not quite - Airbus UK HQ is in Bristol, but the wings are assembled at Broughton in North Wales.
Breaking the terms of the Withdrawal agreement is a "wrong".
Edit: they make wings in Bristol/Avonmouth too, Dovebiker.
Breaking the terms of the Withdrawal agreement is a “wrong”.
Not against the US
Indeed. The EU might decide to impose sanctions (for any breach of the Withdrawal Agreement that takes place). Though if the breach was solely related to Ireland issues, it would presumably only do so if Ireland thought it was a good idea.
Are the US not a guarentor of the agreement? IIRC they had something to do with its monitoring?
That won't stop the U.S. using all the leverage it can muster to force Boris' arm Mefty. It doesn't matter, Britain wil be breaking international law and the international community can react, not jus the EU. Pelosi has already said that there will be no trade deal if the Withdrawal agreement isn't respected, that's already a sanction threatened. It's not even a threat, it's a statement of fact.
You are ignoring recent history if you don't think the U.S. will do whatever it deems necessary and argue the legalities later.
The important thing is that it will be Britain breaking international law and agreements first.
Are the US not a guarentor of the agreement?
Not legally TJ, but I wouldn't try telling that to any* USA politician...
https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1087158755542867970?s=20
...The Good Friday Agreement was a positive USA achievement, as far politicians in both parties over there are concerned. They're not going to walk away from it, legal guarantors or not.
[ *excluding the orange one ]
If I'm not mistaken the UK will have no trade agreement with the US as of January and WTO tarifs will therefore apply. 10% on cars. That's a sanction compared with the current 2.5% tax on cars from the EU without even applying a sanction.
the UK will have no trade agreement with the US as of January
The UK already trades with the US under WTO rules, nothing will change.
I disagree, mefty, the UK as a member of the EU benefits from tarif levels applied to the EU. Compare that with the evolution of tarifs between China and the US. There's nothing to stop the US dealing with the UK in exactly the same way as it does/has with China with extra tarifs on cars when it felt like it, and China retaliated.
Heartening to see the informed opinions above in contrast to Utube. Note that Boris said there needed to be increased urgency and dispatched more negotiators to Europe the day of Biden's ascendancy. He never bothered to meet Biden BTW, another master stroke of diplomacy.
cloggy - its just pretense from Johnson. the aim for months has been to try to paint the EU as the ones to let the talks fail. Unfortunately for Johnson the EU folk can read the big sign saying TRAP and refuse to walk into in despite it wasting the time of their people
2,5% is the general tariff for US car imports. The UK will continue to trade on this basis in January contrary to what you said. OF course we can all invent fanciful scenarios which will never come to pass, they are particularly popular on this thread.
The "TRAP" sign was a monumental error, especially "cake and eat it". The Europe translators had a field day as the equivalents are more vivid with variants that end in for example "avoir les fesses de la cremière" (have the milkmaid's bum"). Jean Michel uses the original more polite version in the Euronews vid below several years on. "Cake and eat it" has become a European cause, let them choke on it.
2,5% is the general tariff for US car imports. The UK will continue to trade on this basis in January contrary to what you said.
That's up to the US. They added 10% to China on whim. The point is that the tarif will no longer be tied to that of the EU, it can be whatever the US decides with WTO's 10% as the start point and whatever they choose if you refer to history.
If Britain plays it's cards right it may continue to benefit from 2.5%, cause trouble in Ireland and who knows.
https://www.wardsauto.com/industry/trump-signals-progress-us-china-trade-spat
The UK will continue to trade on this basis in January contrary to what you said. OF course we can all invent fanciful scenarios which will never come to pass, they are particularly popular on this thread
Of course we won’t actually have that enshrined in any kind of legally binding treaty. Instead, we’ll just have to cross our fingers and hope that the worlds largest economic superpower will grant a small, powerless independent country the same terms it gave to us when we were part of the worlds largest trading block
I’m sure they will. I mean, why wouldn’t they? I’m sure it’ll all be fine
Of course we won’t actually have that enshrined in any kind of legally binding treaty.
We do, the Marrakesh Agreement which established the WTO as the successor to GATT.
That’s up to the US. They added 10% to China on whim. The point is that the tarif will no longer be tied to that of the EU, it can be whatever the US decides with WTO’s 10% as the start point and whatever they choose if you refer to history.
Adding anything to the Tariffs is contrary to WTO and can be sanctioned. With the US and China they are just doing unauthorised tit for tat. THe US tariff of 2,5% applies to all countries (other than those covered by a trade deal) They cant change it without breaching the rules.
The WTO doesn't set a standard rate that is a figment of your imagination. Countries are free to set whatever rate they like, but they must apply it equally, subject to trade deals. 10% happens to be the EU external tariff for cars.
With the US and China they are just doing unauthorised tit for tat.
Best not upset the Americans over Ireland then which is where I started at the top of the page. I'll quote myself from half way down the page, thanks for confirming.
I disagree, mefty, the UK as a member of the EU benefits from tarif levels applied to the EU. Compare that with the evolution of tarifs between China and the US. There’s nothing to stop the US dealing with the UK in exactly the same way as it does/has with China with extra tarifs on cars when it felt like it, and China retaliated.
It would be really stupid for the UK to upset the US over Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement just when it loses the protection that being a member of the EU affords. Trying to claim the US can't/won't apply pressure is ignoring the writing on the wall. Especially when Pelosi, Biden and others have already made a trade deal conditional on Withdrawal agreement/GFA compliance.
The devil isn't in the detail here, Boris has been warned.
Surely they need us more than we need them!
If I’m not mistaken the UK will have no trade agreement with the US as of January and WTO tarifs will therefore apply. 10% on cars.
You said this, This is completely wrong.
Whether the US will decide to breach WTO rules to punish someone for something that isn't going to happen which wouldn't breach the terms of another agreement is just fanciful imaginings.
What do you reckon the UK is going to do on import tarifs if there's no deal, Mefty?
Set them low and the EU is well placed to swamp the UK with goods.
Set them high and... well that wasn't the stated objective was it?
Someone needs to explain to me how the UK can benefit and you seem well placed to try, Mefty.
It seems to me that in a protectionist world the smaller isolated countries get walked over.
What do you reckon the UK is going to do on import tarifs if there’s no deal, Mefty?
You can look them up, they are on the government website.
You said this, This is completely wrong
You are right on this point, I quoted the EU's WTO figure.
I know this admission will deeply upset FrankConway, but there you have it.
Edit: I assume your refering to the TTR which is on the Net and eliminates tarifs on 87% of goods and upset lots of people when announced, you really think they'll go with that?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-tariffs
Sounds like a good reason for the EU not to sign a deal to me.
Trying to claim the US can’t/won’t apply pressure is ignoring the writing on the wall.
Agreed.
If the USA decides to play hardball with the UK, there is zero point getting excited about WTO rules… the big players can do what the hell they like, the WTO is in no position to stop them. That should be entirely avoidable… but only via good diplomacy and politics. The idea that the USA will be held in check by the WTO is just fantasy… we need to work with the USA to keep them on side. There is no fall back option of falling out with them, and expecting the WTO to step in… in fact, if it gets to that, we’ll be calling on the EU to side with us… that will be our only option.
I assume your refering the TTR which is on the Net
If I say you can find it on the Government website, it probably makes sense to look there - so no I don't mean the TTR referred to in that think tank article.
It would be a lot easier if you linked it. Pleeaaaaasse.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021
click "download the full UKGT"
Edit: thanks.
Mefty ,you seem to know your stuff. What does this mean to something that currently costs us £17 kg?
Commodity Description Common External Tariff UK Global Tariff Change
18069011 Chocolate and chocolate products in the form of chocolates, whether or not filled, containing alcohol 8.30% + EA MAX 18.70% + ADSZ 8.0% Simplified
Does VAT go on the cost before the tariff is applied or after? Who does the tariff go to? If the UK government, would it be reasonable to ask why they are punishing us for brexit?