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Why is no deal best long term?
And as for short term pain - who's going to bear the brunt of that? Pain can be dealt with if governments step up to soften the blow. But this lot won't - they are Tories, and the main principle of Tories is that they don't do that.
It’s a fascinating negotiation tbh
Except it isn’t, is it? It’s achingly predictable. It’s an FA Cup tie with a third division side playing the premiership leaders.Until yesterday
A no deal at this stage is probably best for the long term
No deal has always been the worst possible scenario, which is why even the most hardline Brexiteer went to great lengths to promise that it could never happen.
Of course this flips on its head if you’re a hedge fund speculator who’s bet billions against the pound. In which case you’ll clean up and make an absolute killing as our currency goes in to freefall.
Money you can then spend on acquiring British companies who’s share prices have collapsed, which you can then asset strip.
Have a guess who provided all the money for both the Leave campaign, Borises leadership campaign and the Tory’s election campaign?
Go on... take a wild guess?
A no deal at this stage is probably best for the long term but can we commit to the short term pain.
Short term pain for no long term gain. Not exactly the “win-win” Johnson promised when he dismissed the short, medium and long term damaged the Cameron government warned we would have to accept if we swapped EU membership for a new relationship without a replacement trade deal. The government spelt it out… Johnson called it “Project Fear” and said that there was no chance whatsoever of us leaving without a trade deal. Now he is overseeing the very damaging exit situation that he promised the voters would not happen. Bait and switch.
Molgrips, no deal now doesn't really mean no deal forever but let's agree that no deal will be a shitty short term mess💩, captain starmer can finally emerge from the Brexit shadows and use that chaos to win the next election for a strong labour government that will be supporting those most in need.
We will also be able to rejoin the EU whenever we are ready, fully committing to the euro and perhaps creating a better relationship through our experience.
The UK needs some humble pie, let's gobble it up while we have a chance for real change, nom nom nom.
We really don't want Basil Fawlty to secure any sort of deal right now.
Sometimes you have to burn the house down 🔥
Super fascinating.
I for one love working for a successful manufacturing company that is dependent on exporting worldwide and let me assure you I love trying to sort out exciting things like REACH, supply chains and suchlike all the while having absolutely no idea as to what the plan is.
I am of course reassured that conservative government will absolutely be committed to getting a great deal (in fact the 'easiest deal in history').
The tories have a great track record in this area. Oh wait - my mistake.
I just hope all those keen on some 'short term pain' actually experience the short term pain. Its all very well being keen on job losses it it isn't your job...
Sometimes you have to burn the house down 🔥
Oh great! Disaster socialism! 🙄
I’d rather we opted for a course of action that didn’t involve a monumentally damaging financial shitstorm
The Ayn Rand idea of ‘creative destruction’ is a myth. In reality it’s just destruction
We will also be able to rejoin the EU whenever we are ready
We’re not joining the EU in any of our lifetimes (not as the UK anyway), we have burnt through all the goodwill over the last 4+ years. Bridges well and truly burnt (at the Westminster level anyway).
Perfect isn't available peepole, do you really want Basil Fawlty securing a deal? Is your secure little bubble worth that long term pain for future generations.. we need a no deal next year to kick start a new UK movement.
We can rejoin the EU when we are ready👍
Nothing you are saying is grounded in reality. No deal will destroy many UK sited businesses, and force others to relocate. Those jobs won’t be coming back, and real people will be hit hard. We are not rejoining the EU, and the damage of No Deal will be felt by real people for no long term gain to them. We will not be rejoining the EU in their lifetimes.
We’re not joining the EU
Well, not England. Some of the other bits “might” have a shot.
The UK can rejoin the EU when it's ready, it isn't a lottery, if you meet the criteria you join the 'all welcome' club.
You don't want Boris getting a deal this will be bad news for the UK in the long term.
UK would be vetoed from rejoining
We will not be rejoining the EU in their lifetimes.
We will. From a personal point of view I will not lie down and die in front of these lying b*stards.
Oh great! Disaster socialism!I’d rather we opted for a course of action that didn’t involve a monumentally damaging financial shitstorm
I understand this, but in reality the collapse of everything in this country started a long time ago, its just people either try ignore the worsening situation around them by trying to live 'as normal' lives as they can, and hope they can hold onto what little they have left, or you have enough money and access to privilege as whatever happens will not affect you.
In a race to the bottom it just has to play out until that ‘bottom‘ is reached.
The bottom is when you choose to take action to stop the rot. Don't expect some naturally occurring phenomena to throw up a sign in bright lights and state 'THIS IS THE BOTTOM, LIBERALS AND SUCH TAKE ACTION NOW', because that isn't going to happen.
Sometimes you have to burn the house down
The house is already on fire, as above its up to us to stop ****ing around and put it out.
The UK can rejoin the EU when it’s ready, it isn’t a lottery, if you meet the criteria you join the ‘all welcome’ club
is bollocks.
Fact check for you - suggest you read this from The Institute for Government...
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/article-49-rejoining-eu
All the UK has is the right to apply to re-join the EU; any such application can be vetoed by any EU member state - so Poland or Hungary, for example, could exercise that veto and the application would be rejected.
The EU can impose any pre-conditions it sees fit before considering an application to
re-join
In addition, the various concessions which the UK has negotiated with the EU would not be re-instated; there would be no preferential treatment so the contribution rebate, for example, would be a thing of the past.
No apologies for pissing on your chips; let me remind you of the 4 Fs - First Find the F______ Facts.
We don't want that preferential rebate deal FFS, that's no good for the EU. We will accept the EU criteria because the UK won't be crying about the nasty EU anymore, demanding rebates and perks, we will commit to the euro and build a new stronger relationship with our neighbours. Nobody will veto our rejoining and the EU will welcome the grown up version of the UK with open arms (as has been stated many times)
Take your pissy chips and shove em up your arse👍😂
That's an ignorant response which probably should be flagged to the mods because of the last sentence.
In addition to your ignorant attitude you clearly don't want to educate yourself.
So you want to swear at me, piss on my chips and slip in some ad homs but then cry like a child when I bend you over and slap your bum cheeks in a jovial manner. Jog on captain ironic🙋
Sometimes you have to burn the house down 🔥
You really don't.
Can I suggest you step away from the keyboard for a while?
Yawn.
Matt, the house is getting destroyed either way, Boris getting a deal now is very bad news for the UK.
Boris
getting a deal nowis very bad news for the UK.
Fixed that for you
Brexit just got real
William Shatner just said he can no longer import to the UK from 1st of Jan
Even better a 4 way argument I've been having with a brexiter for the last 4 years (I'm that sad) just got quote tweeted by Shatner himself (who took the nickname of the brexiter as an insult)
https://twitter.com/WilliamShatner/status/1317489205254107136?s=19
I'm having a major trekie moment right now
Most of exsee's posts were around 3-4pm in the afternoon which really begs a question.
Is mid afternoon too early to be properly on the piss/charlie?
https://www.icaew.com/insights/tax-news/2020/july-2020/changes-to-vat-treatment-of-imported-goods
worth reading and understanding what this means. If you want to buy anything from abroad, that company has to register for UK VAT. How many companies are going to do that!
Apologies if this has already been posted, but here is an interesting view from the US from CNN....
The short version: so much rides on who will be the US president for the next 4 years that the govt will stall and wait until the results of the election are clear.
The short version: so much rides on who will be the US president for the next 4 years that the govt will stall and wait until the results of the election are clear.
Wasn’t the Brexit ‘no deal/hard exit’ plan always Bannon/Trump?
Apparently Gove is still hoping 'EU leaders appreciate importance of reaching a deal'...
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-less-than-50-chance-of-eu-trade-deal-says-michael-gove-12107413
Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing idiots for an empire that no longer exists.
They do indeed. As Malcolm Tucker referred to them on the Thick Of It - six-toed born-to-rule pony-****ers!
Its all still just a bloody game to them as there are never any consequences to any of their actions. They just stroll off and leave everyone else to clean up their mess, Bullingdon style
Andrew Ransley was good, iff terrifying in the Observer today. Apparently even Gove is now belatedly realising the true damage of No Deal
Boris Johnson is dancing with danger by threatening a crash-out Brexit
But this is a truly scary quote:
The most fanatically Brexity people around the prime minister will be entirely relaxed – delighted even – if that is the outcome. A nightmare for many, it is a dream for them. They smack their lips at the thought of the hardest of hard Brexits. As one senior Tory puts it: “Boris will have Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain in his ear saying, ‘Let’s stick it to the EU and celebrate by sinking a bunch of French fishing boats on New Year’s Day’.” Similar sentiments – let’s just blow the whole thing up – can be found among Brextremist Tory MPs in the Commons.
Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing idiots for an empire that no longer exists.
Made me chuckle
Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing idiots for an empire that no longer exists.
If only it were true. But, come off it, the grand public schools know, and teach their gilded pupils, full well what the true status of the UK is.
The quote should read:
Public schools seem to have a lot to answer for, preparing cynical idiots and cynical (relatively) intelligent people to keep power secure in their hands by appealing to thickos by championing an empire that no longer exists.
That is closer to the mark. When you realise that the Eton-Harrow- Winchester set study the 'other' 99.99% of the population it is a kind of detached 'case study'. A case study to prepare them in techniques to manipulate said 99.99%. That is when you realise what really goes on with this 'born to rule' crap. It is a pragmatic, cynical, cool appraisal of what base motives amongst the population can be appealed to. Nothing more, nothing less.
This article by William Keegan is equally relevant in the Coronanomics thread.
mrmo
Free Membe https://www.icaew.com/insights/tax-news/2020/july-2020/changes-to-vat-treatment-of-imported-goodsworth reading and understanding what this means. If you want to buy anything from abroad, that company has to register for UK VAT. How many companies are going to do that!
Wait, seriously? There's not some key thing we're missing because it's said in tax-inspector-ese not english? Because none of this makes any sense. Does the UK even have the right to insist that companies selling to here from abroad have to pay VAT?
The current system is crap- or rather, the usurious fees are. (i'm just going through a thing with fedex where tehy delivered an item, then billed me a month later for import dutues, which they've got the maths wrong on but are saying I can't appeal unless I show them the packaging, which I've thrown out.) but if this is really what it looks like, it's just a way to shut the whole thing down. And it's not like a lot of overseas-sold stuff can easily be located in the UK so we can't just switch to a UK captive-market system.
I
You don’t want Boris getting a deal this will be bad news for the UK in the long term.
Let's be clear, Deal or No Deal are BOTH damaging for the UK economy as they both create cost/bureaucracy that doesn't exist at the moment.
Wait, seriously?
I'm still not sure... but it's the advice that Shatner got about his merch sales. If it really does mean that... you can see why... half of our imports are from EU/EEA countries... and I'm pretty sure that if you looked at straight to consumer sales, rather than goods imported to resell, it will be the vast majority. Now... VAT is already collected on all these goods... so, if designing a new import system, then focussing on EU/EEA imports makes sense... ask businesses in those countries to continue to collect VAT, and pass it on... and you probably need to treat non-EU/EEA countries the same if you want to avoid a WTO ruling.
Vat is collected at the point of sale to a consumer. It doesn't feature on business to business transactions other than being recorded as vat free. It likely will mean a lot of businesses in the EU won't bother with the UK consumer until there's a system set up. So I wouldn't expect to be buying anything direct for a few years.
Yeah, we knew that already... the question is whether this also replies to businesses outside the EU/EEA selling direct to UK consumers... as when buying direct from USA based brands and shops... that's that claim we're confused about...
I think that VAT thing is nonsense. I believe the new rules are to stop drop shippers from sending stuff inside the UK but as an overseas company, so avoiding the VAT payment. The system already exists to ensure the UK consumer pays the VAT due, its called customs. Of course it will be totally overwhelmed for a while as the total amount of prep the govt. seems to have done is tarmac over Kent.
So the likes of Rose Bikes or say, REI in the US definitely won't be selling to us, I'd imagine. There's no way a modest operation in Germany is going to register a UK company.
I wonder what will happen the other way? CRC would lose out on their sales to the rest of Europe which seem to be somewhat significant going by the number of foreign language reviews on products.
There’s no way a modest operation in Germany is going to register a UK company.
They shouldn't have to purchase a UK company.
CRC would lose out on their sales to the rest of Europe which seem to be somewhat significant going by the number of foreign language reviews on products.
Wiggle have already purchased an EU operation.
EDIT: apologies... just checked... they sold it back...
https://cyclingindustry.news/wigglecrc-sells-bike24-back-to-the-riverside-company/
It does seem we seem to have entered a somewhat Kafkaesque new world
Government: We need business to prepare for leaving the EU
Business: Ok, well, let us know what that entails then? You know... new regulations and stuff
Government: We don't know yet as they've yet to be negotiated, but we need business to prepare for leaving the EU...
And round and round...
One thing is for certain, there is absolutely nobody in government who has even a passing knowledge of the day-to-day realities involved in running a business. But then we've got a journalist presently pretending to run the country. And not even a particularly good journalist.
“Journalist”
It’s a wizzard old wheeze isn’t it? Playing a game of chicken with an entire countries economy, just for shits and giggles?
The game now is all about the narrative - trying to pin the blame on the EU.
I was unlucky enough to discover Boris's FB page this evening - a friend had slagged him off after a post saying how the plucky Brits would be a roaring success now those pesky EU types had refused to kowtow in negotiations.
I was moved to enquire as to how this had come to pass, as we'd been told that it would the easiest deal in the world, and was oven ready. I've not had a reply yet.
I don't know what all the worry is about. There's eight weeks til Parliamentary Christmas recess. Plenty of time for MPs to grow up and act in the nation's interest and avert total meltdown.
I think that VAT thing is nonsense.
Well, I’ve had a good read… and… it’s true (might also be nonsense, but it will be the new rules, nonsense or not…)
£135 is the magic threshold, any package under that, and yes, the seller must process the VAT, and that applies for b2b purchases as well, not just for direct to consumer imports.
I stand corrected. That article has more details than I'd seen, and yes it's a cluster of ducks.
Expect to see £135 min orders from overseas I'm guessing, it appears Customs is still bothered enough to process those itself.
I stand corrected. That article has more details than I’d seen, and yes it’s a cluster of ducks.
Expect to see £135 min orders from overseas I’m guessing, it appears Customs is still bothered enough to process those itself.
As someone who should know I read your original response and then the link, I then thought I (or you) must be missing something as it did read as reported.
But, something I don't know as I've only ever dealt in inter-company accounting/high values. Will this VAT recording apply to firms from ALL countries exporting below £135 - for example, £20 lights bought via eBay from China?
Plenty of time for MPs to grow up and act in the nation’s interest and avert total meltdown.
Four years and four months hasn't been enough.
The only way to have done this in a grown up fashion was to start on 24th June 2016 by saying "This is an epic fail. No one in politics actually thought you lot were stupid enough to actually go for this, so we've just got to minimise it in all regards".
But..... dick measuring on one hand and the narrow financial interests of a tiny minority that are actually really behind it line up with a tory press with much to gain and here we are.
The greatest con job and heist in history. And all done with the tacit support of thickos handing the thieves the keys.
Ridiculous, absurd and (there really is no other word for it) stupid.
Will this VAT recording apply to firms from ALL countries exporting below £135 – for example, £20 lights bought via eBay from China?
It appears that way. It's a very arbitrary system, clearly designed to reduce the impact of a no deal by making it much harder/not worth it for overseas businesses to bother customs with their sub £135 business. It's an odd way to go about it though as you'd think a better approach was a two tier system where you could pay VAT and DUTY through a registered company, or pay a flat fee to have Customs do it for you (kind of like how it works now but with some way to ensure that we cover customs costs for processing). I just hope its not reciprocated by other countries or brexit, which is already a mare for most UK businesses shipping B2C and would get a whole lot more inconvenient!
just worth pointing out again what Tory means. It is derived from an Irish word Toraí, basically is means outlaw..... i think it is quite appropriate.
But, something I don’t know as I’ve only ever dealt in inter-company accounting/high values. Will this VAT recording apply to firms from ALL countries exporting below £135 – for example, £20 lights bought via eBay from China?
My understanding is yes, you either work through a middle man, amazon or ebay, who obviously won't be paying any corporation taxes....but will handle your VAT, or the business does, and has to pay HMRC the privilege of sorting out your VAT payments. Obviously businesses will apply a handling charge, the shipping companies will also charge there handling fees. No idea at what point the duty gets charged.
It's a f******* mess! welcome to rip off Britain.
As for how the hell it works in NI? How Chain Reaction sell into GB or Ireland ????
This must be the frictionless trade zone Gove spoke about in 2016.
Have faith, the grown ups will sort it all out. We all just need to believe in it more.
Do you think maybe 2 minutes chanting at the start and end of the day would help us feel more together? UK GOOD! EU BAD!, over and over? Anyone not joining in could be offered special classes, absolutely free at the point of use, to help them understand why the EU's always been bad for us and to get them aligned with the program?
It comes to something when you long for the days of Theresa May
'Utter rubbish': Theresa May incredulous at Michael Gove's Brexit claims
Police have expressed deep concern over their capabilities if they lose the European arrest warrant or access to live passenger data, critical in fast-moving counter-terror operations.
May told the Commons that “the government appears resigned to the prospect of no deal, yet one area which they should not be resigned to the prospect of no deal is in security”.
With concentrating on the economics (understandably, as its going to be disastrous) you forget that from a policing and security perspective, Brexit is also going to make us considerably less safe. Quite ironic for the party of lornorder. But then this isn't really a Tory Party any more, is it? It's a cult. Brexit at literally any cost!
It comes to something when you long for the days of Theresa May
It's long been said that no matter how bad a PM, the next one will make you long for them back.
^ I see it more akin to the Bristol stool scale. Otherwise, after hundreds of years we’d by now have Hitler or Stalin squared and nothing in between.
On the stool scale, you’ll be flushing this pappy lot down the pan when Farage/Brexit Party return to grace the shitty behind that Bozo et al left, er, behind.
Not long now.
I just hope its not reciprocated by other countries or brexit, which is already a mare for most UK businesses shipping B2C and would get a whole lot more inconvenient!
If the EU reciprocated then we wouldn't be able to sell direct to consumers in the EU anymore. Most orders are sub £50 and go via the post.
So from the 1st January what's going to happen the inevitable mountain of goods that will still get sent here despite being worth less than £135 and from a non-vat registered company?
It’s the date the order was placed that counts, not the date the package hits customs. What happens to orders placed after 1st Jan without VAT collected at source? Good question.
It’s the date the order was placed that counts, not the date the package hits customs.
Positive?
Could be just language, but I'm unsure.
Transactions before 1 January 2021
The new rules will apply to all sales that have a time of supply for VAT purposes of 1 January 2021 or later.
For example, if an order is placed and payment received from the customer on 31 December 2020 then the new rules will not apply, even if dispatch and delivery take place after 1 January 2021. Therefore, for imports the consignment will remain subject to import VAT (unless it is below the Low Value Consignment Relief threshold of £15) and supply VAT should not be charged. For goods already in the UK at the time of supply the VAT liability will remain with the seller rather than the OMP.
The only way to have done this in a grown up fashion was to start on 24th June 2016 by saying “This is an epic fail. No one in politics actually thought you lot were stupid enough to actually go for this, so as it was a non-binding, advisory referendum, we are ignoring it, as the law allows"
FTFY
Brexit has always been about making 2 plus 2 equal 5, because 5 is clearly better than four.
Ask an idiot if they want four or five, and they will respond "five" because it's biggerer in'it.
Don't worry about the fact that you can't have five, because you've only got two two's, that's irrelevant and can be spun away with bull and waffle.
Right up until it can't. At somepoint, the clock stops, and it will be completely, inescapably obvious to even the thickest person that 2+2 does not equal five, no matter how you spin it.
We are not their yet, but that day is coming, and unfortunately, the thick & poor will carry the brunt when it comes whilst the rich spinners will retire to their hedge fund shorted private island in the sun........
So from the 1st January what’s going to happen the inevitable mountain of goods that will still get sent here despite being worth less than £135 and from a non-vat registered company?
I hear we're going to dig a hole in Kent and bury them, Seeing as its no longer part of the UK in a Guantanamo-truck-park style so we can just bury stuff and to hell with the consequences.
I hear we’re going to dig a hole in Kent and bury them
Won't all those bodies start smelling after a while? Oh, you mean the goods, not the lying cretins who got us in this mess.
We best watch ourselves. Not even God is allowed to criticise Brexit nowadays
‘Divisive bishops’ could force Johnson to cut ties with Church, says MP
Just when you think this country can't get any more unhinged, the Brexiteers immediately disabuse you of such quaint notions
Disestablishment would be a good thing, I am not going to quibble about how it happens. The alleged deity is alleged to move in mysterious ways.
‘Divisive bishops’ could force Johnson to cut ties with Church, says MP
The revolution must continue. Nothing and no one must stand in its way.
Reminds me very much of the French Revolution, continued on longer than its achieved aims, and ended badly for the revolutionary's.
Just when you think this country can’t get any more unhinged, the Brexiteers immediately disabuse you of such quaint notions
One of course should always be disappointed with the actions of the opposition, but one should never be surprised.
French Revolution, continued on longer than its achieved aims, and ended badly for the revolutionary’s.
It's ended pretty well, if it's ever ended. The spirit lives on and still defines France to the frustration of anyone running it.
It’s ended pretty well, if it’s ever ended.
Not really the thread for this, but the part of the revolution that led to the reign of terror, Napoleon, and the kings that followed. While the changes eventually stuck, it could have happened much sooner if the original revolutionary's hadn't out stayed their welcome, so to speak.
Hopefully that will happen here, but its probably too much to ask that the instigators of this f*ck up get guillotined.
The spirit lives on and still defines France to the frustration of anyone running it.
Can we agree to a tariff free trade deal that sells that spirit(bottled of course) to England?
Time to start buying baked beans. Make a killing on eBay next year.
And this happens even if we get a deal.
https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1318889975501512704
The 2020s to be the decade of "shortage of X"
The 2020s to be the decade of “shortage of X”
Well, the 2010s was the decade of shortage of brain cells so....
After a crappy day yesterday wielding my pick at the typeface I popped across the fields to my local for muscle relaxant.
A retired business buddy mentioned his high level J P Morgan neighbour is currently pretty certain there will be some kind of deal as both sides want it really badly.
So fingers crossed it wont be just something to keep the bankers in London.
I think there will be a 'thin' deal, which will still be terrible, but pronounced as a triumph.
‘Divisive bishops’ could force Johnson to cut ties with Church, says MP
Turning attention from threatening the BBC to threatening the church of England, all must bow down to the cult of Brexit or face ruin.
It’s a wizzard old wheeze isn’t it?
I'm sure it will feel like Christmas every day for some of Boris' mates, but I'm guessing most of us won't even be getting one of them this year.
Which bit of the Shengen Agreement don't you understand Johnson?
UK: We want all the benefits of being in the club but don't want to be a member or pay for it.
EU: You can't.
UK: WAHHHH! It's not fair!
Actually knowing how duplicitous this lot are, it wouldn't surprise me that they've looked at the EU's red line, not going to budge, points and explicitly demanded them so that the negotiations fail.
The whole having cake/eating cake principle still hasn't sunk in, has it?
They're not a bright bunch, are they?