My god this is depressing
It is, but you can't undo the damage that the last 6 years has done in a couple of years.
If I thought throwing my toys out the pram and screaming "Now!Now!Now!" would help things get done quicker then I'd be right there. Meanwhile, in the real world....
Speaking of which, I reckon 10 years to get an independent Scotland into the EU may be optimistic.
I’ll either be living in an independent Scotland in the EU or in the netherlands if there is really no chance of the UK even having a meaningful trading relationship with the EU
You won't be living in an independent Scotland for all the reasons I've already said.
Why does the UK's trade relationship with the EU drive where you want to live? I really don't understand why it's so important. Since we voted to leave and then subsequently left my life has changed very little. I work in the same job, I drink the same beer, go to the same pubs, socialise with the same people, ride my bike in the same places, go on holiday once or twice a year in Europe like I did before, eat the same food etc. I'm pretty sure this is the same for the vast majority of people in this country.
Sure, I'd like to be able to jump the queue at passport control when I go on holiday but that's not important enough to make me want to live somewhere else. I'd also like the option of retiring somewhere sunny and for my kids to be able to work in Europe if they want but both of those are unlikely to happen even if we were still in. Even outside of the EU and the tories in power the UK is still a pretty ok place to live. I can think of much worse places.
Labour are saying they are not going to do any of the things that are needed to undo the damage. 10 years minimum? its game over then.
what a catastrophically low aim. 10 years to even get a bit closer?
I will be amazed and thankful if in as little as 10 years we're headed back to closer ties with the EU
Why does the UK’s trade relationship with the EU drive where you want to live? I really don’t understand why it’s so important.
Because its fundamental to the economic health of the UK. Its fundamental to the NHS staffing and medicines crisis. Its fundamental to the long term good of the citizens of this country
And with respect you understand very little about Scotland as yo have made clear.
If its really 10+ years to have any sort of meaningful close relationship with the EU then as a country the UK is so effed. I don't want to live in such a country. a country with10 years of falling living standards, falling incomes, a non functioning NHS. The UK will be a horrid place to live in ten years out of the EU. We are falling behind so quickly
I know you voted remain, Dazh and for that I thank you but the picture you've just painted of yourself being unaffected and indeed having got a pay rise (previous page) shows very little foresight. You're at an age where you need little health care and you're perhaps underestimating for how long and to what extent your kids will be relying on you. Whilst clearly happy with your current financial position leaving the EU will progressively impact it as the loss in GDP accumulates.
I can think of much worse places
And I can think of much better. 😉
But seriously with three and a half languages, a love of real mountains, no need to work but not enough money to get a golden passport except in Portugal (I don't speak Portuguese) I'd be properly pissed off with being stuck in the UK.
We've had threads about where people would love to live and for many it was somewhere in the EU.
Edit: I should type faster and not put the bins out half way through a post, TJ beat me to it.
Do you think you'd build a social life and be happy in the Netherlands, TJ. You have your sister as a first contact and then clubs would provide contacts, but it takes time.
I really don’t understand why it’s so important. Since we voted to leave and then subsequently left my life has changed very little.
Noticed how much sewage is now in the UKs rivers, that's chemical shortages, noticed fruit and veg going off faster, seen the increased waiting times in the NHS, less staff, seen pubs not opening, less staff, seen the shortages in the shops? Seen how prices have risen because of tariffs they didn't exist. Tried buying from abroad and been met with more paperwork and costs.
Plenty has already changed.
Now wait until they impose full import controls, even more shortages and even higher prices.
You can play the ostrich if you want, but things have changed and will carry on changing.
Ah well that dream to retire in the sun is just getting pricier every year
The Spanish Government has announced IPREM for 2023 of €600 per month (a 3.6% increase on the 2022 amount.) This means that the Spanish non-lucrative visa financial requirement for 2023 are: Primary Applicant: 400% x annual IPREM= €28,800. Each Dependent: 100% x annual IPREM = €7,200
So your going to need to prove you’ve got a €36k year income or a big pile of shekels , slightly different than just rocking up and getting your pension paid to a Spanish bank like the good old days.
Tried buying from abroad and been met with more paperwork and costs.
I’ve bought a few U.K. bike thangs for me that can’t be bought in Spain, just a total ball ache (not the U.K. suppliers fault).
Once on holiday here I broke the hood on my boxster,ordered the plastic bit from the U.K. and fitted it to the car in a few days.
It would not be great Edukator but better than living in a decaying UK. I've only got 10 or so years of active life left. The idea of spending it in a decaying uk getting poorer and poorer each year is distressing.
I’m also a tad grumpy that even thou I voted with my feet the stench of Brexit still affects me, even with residency under the WA I don’t have the rights of an eu citizen so moving to Berlin or working there requires another visa application.
(Course I still haven’t got residency and can’t leave Spain as that would indicate that I don’t want to proceed, which also nobbled my driving licence as it’s not recognised.)
Still the weekend bike ridings nice 🙂
Do you have a route out?
I will be leaving as soon as I can without pissing off people important to me.
I’ve only got 10 or so years of active life left. The idea of spending it in a decaying uk getting poorer and poorer each year is distressing.
About 30 left in me but it's not my future I worry about. It's when I look at little people like my nephew (9) and niece (3) that I get distressed. What kind of country are they going to be living in by the time they hit adulthood?
Im not sure it will take that long, the economic pain of leaving isnt going to get better, probably worse, even when inflation comes down, from housing, to NHS, to social care, to schools, to trains to potholes & bin collections, Brexit was supposed to make the UK a better place, it hasnt.
The EU have always said that we would be more than welcome to start the re-joining process if we wish. They have even said that it would be fast-tracked (still take a decade or more) but that we would not get the deal we had previously. The issue is if JRM's Bill gets through then there will be a lot of realigning to do first, as it stands now there wouldn't be too much damage to undo legal-wise. The repercussions though of the last few years could well take a decade or more to fix.
Even outside of the EU and the tories in power the UK is still a pretty ok place to live. I can think of much worse places.
But it was better, and has been made just that bit shitter in so many ways.
Whilst clearly happy with your current financial position leaving the EU will progressively impact it as the loss in GDP accumulates.
Will it? The only way a loss of GDP will affect me is if I lose my job and can't get another one, which is unlikely. And it's not like we haven't had other recessions. If indeed not being in the EU causes another one, then I will approach it the same as I have all the rest. What other option is there? You just have to get on with things, and an honest appraisal of the last few years tells me I was wrong to think in 2016 that I would be much worse off after we left the EU, so it's probably a waste of energy to assume the worst will happen.
Noticed how much sewage is now in the UKs rivers, that’s chemical shortages
Any evidence for that? Shit in rivers is also a result of our craven water companies taking advantage of political indifference to pollution. Chemical shortages may play a part but I'd want to see incontrovertible evidence to back up claims that it's caused by brexit. Seems to me this is just an example of apportioning blame because it suits your opinion.
noticed fruit and veg going off faster
Nope.
seen the increased waiting times in the NHS, less staff
I posted a solution to that problem on the Starmer thread. The staffing crisis in the NHS is a result of government policy not training enough nurses and paying them enough to retain them. Also the increased waiting times are not a direct result of brexit but many other factors such as lack of investment in the care sector and of course covid. Again you're making assumptions because they fit your opinion.
seen pubs not opening
Nope. I've seen pubs round here closing because of covid, but not because of staff shortages.
seen the shortages in the shops?
No. There have been no shortages of stuff I want to buy in the local supermarkets.
Seen how prices have risen because of tariffs they didn’t exist.
Again, that's the result of lots of stuff, not just brexit. Countries in the EU have experienced similar (or worse) inflation. Brexit is a factor, but also so is Ukraine, the collapse of supply chains due to covid, and the change in monetary policy brought about by covid bailouts. It's much too simplistic to blame price rises on tariffs due to brexit.
Seriously, I get the urge to blame everything on brexit, it's a simple excuse for stuff that's way more complex. But it's simply not the truth. The problems in this country have got much more to do with the incompetent, corrupt and disinterested government which rules over us. It's ironic that the continued replaying of the brexit debate and the urge to say 'we told you so' is letting the tories off the hook. The short-medium term solution is a change in govt. And like I said earlier, if after that all these problems haven't improved, then by all means lets revisit the EU issue.
anyone got any examples of a u turn so fundamental?
Boris did do a couple of U-turns
Just how "Fundamental" each of them was is probably debatable, but there were a couple of 180° policy choices during Bozza's reign.
SKS saying he's not going to discuss something with the EU and subsequently discussing it with the EU (in the nation's interest) wouldn't be that shocking IMO.
And as ever, what's the alternative? More Tory shenanigans, which feels like a bigger gamble (IMO)...
Hospitality business all over Scotland are closing for lack of staff. NHS staffing issues cannot be solved in the timescales needed without FOM with the EU or stripping staff from red list countries. Perma recession means a lower quality of life for everyone. Brexit caused half the inflation
Its those of you who pretend Brexit is not the problem that lets the tories off the hook. Not those of us that want to make sure the tories ( and now labour) take the blame for brexit that has outright caused or exacerbated the issues
Perma recession
TJ we haven't even been in recession - technically - since 2016. Yes, it's been stagnant with not much growth, but that goes all the way back to 2008. Here's a handy graph, please tell me where the perma-recession is.
Who's pretending TJ? Brexit is very much an ongoing problem across all industries and areas of public services.
If I understand correctly, you're saying you'd vote for a candidate that promises the (currently) undeliverable?
Last time a candidate made wild, bullshit promises about "Oven ready deals" and "taking back control"... Well do we need to go over it all again?
As a nation we're trapped between a rock and a hard place. The options are all kind of unpalatable, acknowledging that doesn't make me a Brexit apologist.
The UK will officially be in recession on Friday. The recession is going to be the worst out of all the G7 nations.
https://www.ft.com/content/81fbdff6-dacb-476b-a4ba-12696e7f7800
I know you're doing fine, dazh. I'm surprised the FT hasn't bothered reporting on that.
The UK will officially be in recession on Friday.
Yup. And that will be a direct result of the Bank of Englands ridiculous policy of hiking interest rates to combat supply side inflation caused by covid and Ukraine. Brexit hasn’t caused this recession, the governor of the BoE did.
The decision to leave the EU was nearly 7 years ago now, and we are still 'negotiating' some parts and kicking others (Retained EU Law Revocation bill, etc.) down the road.
We are 18-24mo away from a GE, before which any discussions on rejoining could really start and even then would need to go through potentially a referendum, at the very least parliament..... I don't see 10 years as an estimate as anything but realistic.
I lost my job in 2018/19 and was unemployed for 5 months - not directly as a result of Brexit but the company's owner at that point had to make decisions on future investment and the reduction in EU trade has to have been a factor in selling up when he did. And in my new role; loss of EU staff back to home countries, difficulties in recruiting new staff, those that come having to pay work permits where they previously had rights, a standstill on investment, loss of collaborations through existing routes. I'm glad it hasn't affected some, for me it's been a disaster, and for my kids futures......
Who’s pretending TJ?
all the folk who pretend that Brexit is not a huge issue. The labour party Anyone who supports labour policy. Dazh above was claiming Brexit is not a significant issue issue
Pretending Brexit is not a huge act of national self harm and that every year it continues the position gets worse. Anyone who says "make brexit work"
Thats what lets the tories off the hook for the damage they have done.
If I understand correctly, you’re saying you’d vote for a candidate that promises the (currently) undeliverable?
No
I want the labour party to be honest about Brexit. to lay the blame for the disaster at the Tories door. To lead public opinion which has already shifted massively towards rejoin
Instead we have a labour party that has turned into a brexit party. Who pretend that they can"make brexit work" Who refuse to do anything about mitigating the damage, refuse to even follow public opinion and most importantly who have let the tories off the hook
Why is rejoin or even get close to the EY "undelivberable. The EU have made it clear its not undeliverable.
for me it’s been a disaster, and for my kids futures……
Yup, and for many others. We’re all familiar with the horror stories of businesses adversely affected. But it isn’t universal like some people on here would claim. It’s shit for those affected like yourself, and that was reason enough not to leave, but for huge numbers of people it has made very little difference. I’m sure you don’t care about them, but it does explain why so many people are indifferent to the issue.
Inflation half of which is due to brexit effects everyone as do many of the issues. Stop the pretense. Its also hardly started to show the adverse effects yet. Wait until we are forced to put the customs controls on inward goods in place ( that should have been done a year ago)
Inflation half of which is due to brexit effects
Evidence please. Maybe I missed it but I’ve seen no reports about this.
But it isn’t universal like some people on here would claim.
Indeed true. However it’s the absence of any benefits that’s the problem. I’m going to cut off my leg. Weight loss is beneficial to health. There will be some challenges, for sure, but think of the sunny uplands; only half as many socks to wash! And I don’t walk anyway, I have a car.
It is universal, but people don’t know what a GDP is and that the country is 5% poorer. I do have a blue passport.
This is a reasonable and validated methodology. 5.5% poorer.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2022
A you probably remember Ihave no real economic understanding so cannot verify this stuff
I can only go on what independent experts say and they all say that a significant part of our inflation is down to brexit and also brexit has cost huge losses in GDP and tax take
Others say half
Also huge loss of GDP and tax revenues due to brexit
this link has both inflationand loss of gdp
https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/effects-brexit-uk-growth-and-inflation
The true damage of Brexit was always being to be a longer term squeeze that many people wouldn't notice immediately, rather than a big bang that people would be surprised by.
Yes and its barely started yet.
Wait until we are forced to put the customs controls on inward goods in place ( that should have been done a year ago)
And UKCA… forever delayed because it’s a waste of everyone’s time and money, but at some point we “have” to bite the bullet and have it in place… because… er… without it we wouldn’t have taken back control on standards.
The true damage of Brexit was always being to be a longer term squeeze
If that’s true it only supports the fact that the case for rejoining is far off in the future so we need to forget about it for now and tackle more important things instead. No one is going to reverse something if the effects are not going to be known for some time.
I want the labour party to be honest about Brexit. to lay the blame for the disaster at the Tories door. To lead public opinion which has already shifted massively towards rejoin
Instead we have a labour party that has turned into a brexit party. Who pretend that they can”make brexit work” Who refuse to do anything about mitigating the damage, refuse to even follow public opinion and most importantly who have let the tories off the hook
Why is rejoin or even get close to the EY “undelivberable. The EU have made it clear its not undeliverable.
I have a work colleague who's keen on the using the phrase "let's try to eat the elephant one bite at a time" whenever any of us is getting a bit ambitious.
I don't think I really disagree with you, other than on the idea that SKS pledging to rejoin the EU would burn him badly at the polls. It's a red line for lots of people I think those who voted for it obviously and probably a few remains who don't relish the prospect of another referendum (the last one was 6 years ago and we're still not done with its fallout).
I think you have to recognise the public discourse (led mainly by a Tory sympathetic media) has made the mere idea of rejoining or calling a referendum on the topic into an electoral suicide pill for pretty much the next decade. I don't like it, it's an internal Tory fight that spilled over and ****ed the whole nation, it's architects should be subjected to medieval torture and paraded to the gallows for it. But it's done and the effort expended trying to undo it would divert us from the most immediate issue facing us now (yes I know, created in large part by Brexit).
The sad truth is to effect any change first you need to be in power, which means SKS selling a good chunk of his soul and pledging to abide by the lunacy of the 52%ers. Labour are not the new Brexiteers, they've just recognised the limits of what they can say and do if they want to get in power. Let's call them "Brexit agnostics" for now.
I can sense we're getting a bit circular with this one now and probably starting to annoy other contributors so I'll stop responding for a bit.
The effects are known now. Look at the data. its just going to get worse and worse with the UK falling further and further behind. We havn't seen the worst of it yet.
Stop the pretense. Brexit is a disaster. Labour policy will do very little to ameliorate it. labour supporters and the labour party pretending that its not so stops the blame landing on the tories
You are doing the tories work for them
Open your eyes man
You only have to look at the Tory 2019 manifesto to see that what is said in election campaigning and the reality of what happens when in government are rarely, if ever, the same thing. In this case they haven’t come close to achieving a single one of their main pledges but what are the consequences? Little if any.
https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan
It’s obviously not right, but that’s the game and Labour have to play it whether they like it or not. They need to win power and then they can attempt to gradually shift the dial towards closer ties to the EU. Or not. But I’d take my chances versus anything the Tories would do.
Stop the pretense.
Please moderate your language. That phrase implies that someone's deliberately lying, which is a pretty inflammatory allegation. If you disagree, say stuff like 'well I don't think so' or 'I do not read it that way'.
As for "Make Brexit work" we don't have a lot of choice at this stage, do we? We can't reverse it yet.
And your post is an passivve aggressive instruction
WTF am I supposed to say to folk that are pretending that its all OK? Its an objective fact that brexit has caused these issues. Its not subjective. Anyone who denies an objective fact is pretending
There is no "making brexit work" IMO
Now you please tell me how to make it work
You are doing the tories work for them
I’m not doing anything other than getting on with life rather than worrying about stuff that was irrevocably decided 6 years ago. You may be right, but there’s f-all we can do about it right now. And in the meantime there’s a whole load of stuff that needs doing to sort out other problems, and to do those we need a Labour govt.
There is plenty we can do about it the most critical one is making sure the tories take the blame for this
‘well I don’t think so’ or ‘I do not read it that way’.
would be a falsehood when its a view shared by all independent commentators and is as close to an objective fact as we can have
It's not meant to be passive aggressive, I'm pointing out something you may have done without realising it.
WTF am I supposed to say to folk that are pretending that its all OK?
I don't read anyone's comments that way. I think everyone is as pissed off as you are, we simply differ on what's politically possible.
Now you please tell me how to make it work
Mate, that is a political slogan, not a detailed manifesto. We've already talked about the first steps we can take to improve the situation, and where it might eventually leave.
It took us decades to get to this point, it didn't happen overnight in 2016. It will take at least a decade to get back.
would be a falsehood when its a view shared by all independent commentators and is as close to an objective fact as we can have
How can "I don't think so" be a falsehood? Dear me you are really spoiling for a fight tonight. Time to take a break maybe (and yes that is a little bit passive aggressive).
This is a reasonable and validated methodology.
Not really, Policy Exchange did a decent article examining the flaws of this analysis, but it simply doesn't pass the smell test as it means that UK economy would have grown by 5% more than either Germany or France which isn't credible.
The OBR assumpton is 4% over a 15 year period, this isn't based on independent work but is a straightforward average of a number of studies by different bodies, which use a number of approaches. The worst case ones are those that use a graviity model. I am sceptical how appropriate this methodology is because of the historic development of trade between the UK and the EU so my guess is that we will end up at worst at 3%.
A counter factual methodology is a valid method. One can argue the specifics of which countries should be included (I’d use a better methodology than manual selection), together with principle components to reduce variability. I’d also show the validation for non Brexit country too (leave one out validation methodology. THEN see where the UK prediction falls.
I ignore the OBR averaging unless it excludes outliers for a trimmed mean or median based analysis.
Policy Exchange is hardly unbiased, but then neither is the original source. 😉
