I ignore the OBR averaging unless it excludes outliers for a trimmed mean or median based analysis.
You don't improve the analysis if you do this this isn't proper data this is finger in the air economic guesswork wrapped up into a model to make it look scientific. Keeping it simple makes sense as it is easy to understand the potential flaws that result.
Says who? You have absolutely no idea what criteria would be demanded to rejoin. I’d say both of those things would be non-negotiable
I'd say it's more than likely. All new entrants must commit to adopting the Euro, always have, but it's up to the entrant to sort the conditions for triggering adoption which can obviously be fudged. As for Schengen, the common travel area between ROI and UK would preclude that unless ROI want otherwise.
Oh, and Hungary.
So that’s what 40 years between votes then? “Ze beatings will continue until morale improves”
So when do you propose we be allowed to discuss another change? Another 40 years down the line? Democracy didn't stop in 2016.
Tough, We have to assume that everyone had access the same information, that everyone was as fully informed as they wanted to be.
Except they weren't fully informed as they were being told everything the Remainers claimed was just 'Project Fear'. Who do you listen to?
Are we? My salary has increased above inflation since we voted to leave the EU
Well lucky ****ing you then.
Nope. I’ve seen pubs round here closing because of covid, but not because of staff shortages.
I can assure you that's been the case up here, not enough seasonal workers who came from... ...go on, take a guess.
**** me, I’m beginning to think you actually are Douglas Ross.
Well he certainly talks a load of dross.
Actually, way more leaders than that. The first time it happened to me was the first Scottish Parliament election.
What did they give up then? I was still at school but was a direct beneficiary of free tuition fees.
for huge numbers of people it has made very little difference.
Kinda makes you wonder what the point of it all was then, doesn't it.
The decision to leave the EU was nearly 7 years ago now, and we are still ‘negotiating’ some parts and kicking others (Retained EU Law Revocation bill, etc.) down the road.
Yep Gibraltars not really quite ‘done’ yer either.
Seriously, I get the urge to blame everything on brexit, it’s a simple excuse for stuff that’s way more complex. But it’s simply not the truth. The problems in this country have got much more to do with the incompetent, corrupt and disinterested government which rules over us.
TBH I think that Brexit shaped the government to be the worst of the worst thou and they are very prepared to let nhs collapse(if it hasn’t) with blatant lies of 40 new hospitals and cracking energy bill profits for their mates and all the other stuff they have got away with.
Brexit has changed the reality of our politics and shown that you could get away with the emperors new clothes as policy and reality and accountability are old school.
I have a work colleague who’s keen on the using the phrase “let’s try to eat the elephant one bite at a time” whenever any of us is getting a bit ambitious.
I hope you smack them round the head every time they say it!
What did they give up then? I was still at school but was a direct beneficiary of free tuition fees.
Funnily enough, it was tuition fees.
Lib Dems were making lots of noise about tuition fees being a non-negotiable manifesto commitment. Literally the day after the election that was abandoned because they wanted to be chums with Labour.
Cue ten years of reports, fudges, and tuition fees that weren't actually tuition fees before they were finally properly abolished in 2008. By a party who was definitely not the Lib Dems.
I should have just voted SNP in the first place.
Deprivation has been a theme of the coalfield communities that I live in for probably 20+ years.
To pop up and start screeching now about things going south now is just as ignorant.
Everyone will suffer some ups and downs - I started my business in a recession and ironically did okay during the pandemic and the Post-Brexit years.
It's unfortunate that things are entwined between Brexit, post-pandemic shocks the greater angst of capitalism because it gets impossible to unravel it all.
But Brexit has become the poster child for blaming everything because it's so in your face.
I still traveled to France four times during the pandemic and post-Brexit.
Slightly trickier but difficult.
My partner struggled to get a potential job in Switzerland due the rules of where you could live - which was a knock on from Brexit.
So what? Middle class issues if I ever saw them - whilst people have been homeless for years.
(Oh and inflation and CPI shouldn't always be assumed to be the same thing - the Eurozone has had plenty of inflation. It's been a world-wide issue. You can't simply attribute half to Brexit. That's ludicrous. Globalisation sets the agenda here. And everyone's actual inflation is different. Wealthy folk benefit from it for example as they make money out of interest bearing assets.)
So what? Middle class issues if I ever saw them – whilst people have been homeless for years.
Not being able to travel as easily is one thing. Like you say, minor inconvenience at best.
However, not being able to move to other countries is a major issue that I suspect many people under the age of 40 just don't appreciate since they never grew up with the opportunities.
I've worked abroad more than I've worked in the UK. I've met as many working class who have moved abroad as middle-class people. In fact, probably more.
Middle-class people tend to move back 'home' after a few years. They have their parents assets and a comfortable life waiting for them. Working class people don't so are more likely to either settle in a EU country or move onto another one that has more opportunities.
If I still lived in the UK I would be severely under-employed if not completely unemployed. As it was, I and others were able to go where the opportunities were.
It's a very middle-class outlook to think that freedom of movement means it's easier to go on your holi-bobs.
Brexit has changed the reality of our politics and shown that you could get away with the emperors new clothes as policy and reality and accountability are old school.
Well you can only get away with it for so long?
Surely the last six years have shown the folly of putting any faith in nationalist populists who offer simple solutions to complex problems. The Brexiteers have had ample time to amply demonstrate how unfit for office they are. Labours large and consistent poll lead surely shows that the country has tired of people waving flags as a figleaf for everything thats presently going wrong?
The remain campaign made a real mess of this. Freedom of movement is part (1 of 4) of Article 45 of the TFEU and in its entirety, it covers good, services, labour and capital. To "take back control" of one, you have to give up the remaining three and it's those three on which a massive amount of our economy was built.
Its been shown time and again that FoM is actually a benefit to our country on a whole raft of different metrics and the negative...migration of usually skilled, usually English speaking, culturally quite well aligned people who get jobs and pay taxes all the while taking jobs in the UK which others in the UK simply don't seem to want to do.
Remain should've found a way to explain this simply and delivered it with conviction. They were constantly trying to deconstruct the lies of Leave, but didn't really do anything to inspire. Hope trumps fear every time. They forgot this. I know, I campaigned door-to-door and the material they gave us was awful.
Labours large and consistent poll lead surely shows that the country has tired of people waving flags as a figleaf for everything thats presently going wrong?
I don't think it does, I think people are just feeling a bit more skint.
Plus there's still plenty of people firmly behind Brexit.
Pretty much all of my, and my wife's family here in Yorkshire and up in Newcastle are just as ardent today about Brexit; just that it's not been done properly/the government have let us down/Boris would sort it if he got back in.
I know it's only anecdotal but we were at a family wedding in Seahouses a few weeks past and the conversation moved to a postponed hip operation for one elderly relative.
The consensus of most folk was that it was because, despite Brexit, the government was still letting in loads of illegal immigrants who were taking up all the NHS capacity ahead of the people who have paid their taxes all their lives.
Stop the pretense.
Please moderate your language.
You what now!
The remain campaign made a real mess of this.
I think thats an enormous understatement. We had the perfect storm really. A complacent and lazy PM who assumed that the whole thing was a mere formality, who then made himself the 'face of remain' despite being about as popular as a fart in a lift, and then we had a labour leader who was a lifelong Brexiteer and effectively disappeared for the duration of the entire campaign.
Faced with a dedicated and committed campaign that had been 30 years in the making, funded by mountains of dodgy cash and led by a bunch of morality-free liars and snake-oil salesmen who saw in it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for their own advancement, its no wonder it went the way it did
the government was still letting in loads of illegal immigrants who were taking up all the NHS capacity
I’ve said before that the only way to defuse the immigration issue is to sort out our public services, and to do that we need a labour govt. All western countries have a problem with the perception of immigration as people have become entitled to the benefits and advantages of living where they do, and instinctively blame immigrants when those benefits are diluted or disappear. When people get the healthcare they expect and have the economic security they’re used to then the immigration issue will evaporate.
As dangerous beans points out, lots of people are just poorly educated (at themost basic level) and have little ability to process/understand the most basic concepts around economics,politics etc.
Said before i have family in Ashington and they couldn't tell you why their food shop is more expensive... they dont really watch the news, read anything, have zero interaction with anything beyond face book and tick tok. The only time any of them have ever voted was the EU referendum.
The Tories understand these people and as long as they dont vote labour thats fine. There is no understanding of the concept or what it means of levelling up in these communities - it was the ultimate dead cat.
All the macro stuff is easily blurred by bluffers... on the micro level I can assure you that Brexit means that there is a huge market of customers who are now far more reluctant to buy direct from UK companies... and some who just will not do so at all, including those who actively did so before we left. That can't be reversed with a line in a manifesto, a politician's smile, and a promise of a quick and painless return to the SM & CU... that just isn't on the cards... the damage is done... time to knuckle down and start the long slow repair process... it'll take decades... and that process can not even start in earnest while this round of Conservatives are in government.
I’ve said before that the only way to defuse the immigration issue is to sort out our public services, and to do that we need a labour govt. All western countries have a problem with this as people have become entitled to the benefits and advantages of living where they do. When people get the healthcare they expect and have the economic security they’re used to them the immigration issue will evaporate.
I'd like to think you're right but, in my heart of hearts, I don't believe it.
I’d like to think you’re right but, in my heart of hearts, I don’t believe it.
Oh it'll still exist, but it will be a background issue peddled by the bigots rather than at the forefront. I remember back to the early 2000s after labour massively improved the NHS, built loads of schools, and brought in things like child tax credit and there was very little talk about immigration. It didn't start to become a big issue until the tories got in and started destroying our public services.
I’d like to think you’re right but, in my heart of hearts, I don’t believe it.
It might not evaporate... but there's no arguing that the Leave campaigns didn't successfully use public service shortcomings, especially the NHS, to garner votes for their cause. We should remove that tool from these conmen and women by improving those services, because they will use it again to try and win people over... Tice is doing so for Reform in the run up to the next election already.
I could be like Dazh and argue that Brexit hasn't really impacted us, but that's only because at our earnings level (and the fact the kids have all left home) that even though we're spending shedloads more every month than we use to (even taking inflation into account), we can afford to.
But I won't, as I can see the damage Brexit is doing, and I GAS about my country, my kids & grandkids.
Oh it’ll still exist, but it will be a background issue peddled by the bigots rather than at the forefront. I remember back to the early 2000s after labour massively improved the NHS, built loads of schools, and brought in things like child tax credit and there was very little talk about immigration. It didn’t start to become a big issue until the tories got in and started destroying our public services.
I just can't see the people saying these things stopping believing them, they believed it before but felt they couldn't voice it, that's all.
Must admit I was a bit 'wow' about how overt the racism was up there compared to a few years back; The DJ at the night do did a version of the statues game with the kids with the first prize being ' a job in my sweatshop in Plackistan'.
But I won’t, as I can see the damage Brexit is doing
I didn't say brexit was doing no damage. I was challenging the point that we are all worse off as a result of it. Many people are not, myself included. It's not something to celebrate, especially as a significant amount of people are worse off, but it is a fact. Rejoiners would be much better off recognising this rather than making broad brush statements that many people can see to be false.
Must admit I was a bit ‘wow’ about how overt the racism was up there
Have you never been to the north east before? I grew up there and it's still the only place I've ever been where the words p*** and darkie are in common usage. It's not a new thing, it's always been the case. It's actually a lot better now than it used to be. The north east has a weird and complex mix of extreme social conservatism and lefty class consciousness.
Have you never been to the north east before? I grew up there and it’s still the only place I’ve ever been where the words p*** and darkie are in common usage. It’s not a new thing, it’s always been the case. It’s actually a lot better now than it used to be. The north east has a weird and complex mix of extreme social conservatism and lefty class consciousness.
Up there all the time as wife's family live around Lemmington, Newburn and Throckley.
It might be better wherever you were but not in my experience, things which were only said at home are now voiced loudly and confidently in Sainsburys, outside the school, in the pub etc.
The older parts of Throckley especially has seen a massive decline in the past 10 years to the point where my wife doesn't like to go to the street she grew up on to see her mum.
Looks like the rest of the EU are all keen to follow our example,,, NOT
The same has happened here since we left... we just can't do anything about it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/
I really do wish the UK wasn't the case study on why leaving the EU is such a dumb idea.🙁
It is one of the only silver linings I can think of with Brexit, that at least the example can be learned from by others.
Always leading the way, see?
World leading!
Guardian analysis on why political parties are steering clear of the shifting public opinion
Guardian analysis on why political parties are steering clear of the shifting public opinion
it's the realities of first past the post, if we had PR it would be a no brainer go with the majority but instead we end up "kowtowing" to a small minded minority in marginal constituencies.
I'm not sure I dare tag @tjagain but this is relevant to the earlier discussion, from that article:
Yet among those who voted Conservative in 2019 – the potential swing voters on whom Starmer’s team are focused – only 16% said they would be more likely to back a Labour party promising to rejoin, while 48% said less likely.
This is what I was trying to say - due to FPTP, a majority in favour of rejoin isn't enough, it needs to be the swing voter demographics and that's not what they want.
I read the analysis
The main point i dont accept is that this movement i think would be much greater if Starmer backed remain and I want a labour leader who does not tell blatent lies over brexit
It also makes no reference the couple of dizen seats labour coukd win in Scotland backing remain
Imo those numbers show my position is much stronger than you all tried to tell me
Id love to be able to vote labour again but a brexiteer privitising labour party promising austerity and refusing to even consider the single biggest thing that would ease the multiple crisis we face i cannot vote for when i have two pro europe anti austerity anti privatisation to vote for
Starmer is sacrifing the good of scotland and the uk to appeas a few racists.
+1 tj
Couldn't have put it better.
4 odd years ago I had hopes for Starmer and Labour, more fool I. He’s merely another useless political placeholder that will soon be forgotten as he lacks the balls to stand up and say Brexit has been a totally ****ing foolish exercise in self immolation as he fears the ****s who voted for Brexit
he lacks the balls to stand up and say Brexit has been a totally * foolish exercise in self immolation as he fears the * who voted for Brexit
He doesn't need balls he needs votes. If you think that would get swing voters in the swing constituencies voting for him you're a dreamer.
And another thread goes the same way….
He doesn’t need balls he needs votes. If you think that would get swing voters in the swing constituencies voting for him you’re a dreamer
Molls nails it!
Hang on - my post was about both Brexit and Starmer, I object!
He doesn’t need balls he needs votes. If you think that would get swing voters in the swing constituencies voting for him you’re a dreamer.
Thankfully Labour are irreverent in Scotland, and who gives a **** about those doss ****s who voted for Brexit.
I don't see the benefit of rejoining the EU to be honest.
Yes, there are some economy incentive or freedom of movements but that's hardly anything special at all. Let EU prosper and let them have all the money they want etc.
All those views about how good it is to be EU is just hype. Makes not much difference to me at all since I ain't rich nor earning above average. Just a cog in the machine.
I mean I only set foot twice in my life in EU and that's because I wanted to see what they are. Had to save up just for that. Well, nothing special really. Food is average, people are just people like everywhere else. Can't understand their language but generally people are friendly.
Also, if Scotland wants to gain independence then so be it let them go but be kind to each others. Try not to disappoint King James VI and I even when he is no longer here. If Scotland is allowed to gain independence then I suggest those who want to remain in EU start making plans now. Move to Scotland while you still can. I think Scotland may gain independence in our lifetime so the opportunity to be part of EU is there for those who wish to remain in EU. Oh, try to learn another EU language if you can otherwise you are more or less stuck.
The only way I see UK joining EU system again is after the next great war (III), not before. Therefore, it will not happen in this life time or at least Not in your/my life time. Perhaps in another 3 generations down the line assuming EU system is still the same after the great war.
Any political leader wanting to rejoin EU now will probably be taking a huge risk.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, even the Brexiteer dimwits at the top of Tory party are finally reacquainting themselves with reality
UK may shelve controversial Brexit protocol bill in show of goodwill to EU
About ****ing time!
Whereas thebrexiteer leading labour .. ......
Is swimming against the stream. That polling clearly shows that rejoin is gaining momentum and his highly popular amongst the swing voters as well
Rejoin would be a big vote winner all over the country including amongst the swing voters.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/13/brexit-mistake-northern-ireland-protocol
<h1>Voters know that Brexit was a mistake, so when will our politicians admit it?</h1>
