I think that’s a bit ridiculous, they let go of some manifesto commitments to form a coalition, but it was surely a lot better than what came after.
You vote for the Lib Dems if you want. Just don't come crying to me when they turn around and say, 'CU/SM/FOM was never a central pillar of our manifesto, we have lots of other policies we're exited to enact!' after Labour or the Tories offer them a seat at the table 🙂
The problem with the Lib Dems is they will sacrifice literally any of their policies for a sniff of power so you have no idea what you are voting for with them.
Blimey, that's a strange interpretation of what happened what.. 3, 4 leaders ago?
Jonv- crossed posts I guess. I put the direct quote above.
Blimey, that’s a strange interpretation of what happened what.. 3, 4 leaders ago?
Actually, way more leaders than that. The first time it happened to me was the first Scottish Parliament election.
Then the rest of the UK got the same treatment. Exactly how many chances are we supposed to give them to keep proving that all their manifesto commitments are dispensible.
Say what you like about the DUP, but they knew how to be the junior partner in a coalition.
I guess the party most likely to defeat the tories in your constituency
This is my plan.
"under my government"
It's a long game we have to play.....
and is it definitive that we can't have a CU for example without FOM? Turkiye has a CU without FOM as far as I'm aware?
On the lib dems. Its just an anecdote but...
My dad is a lifelong liberal / SDP / Lb dem activist. Not just voter but committed activist and a committed unionist as well. He has now accepted that voting for the lib dems is a waste of time as they are tory enablers and have moved so far right. He understands vote lib dem get tory
he shifted to voting labour under Starmer. First time ever in his life considering voting labour. since Starmer came out so strongly pro bexit he has again changed his mind and is now considering Green or SNP
Starmer came out so strongly pro bexit
FFS
A CU maybe. I don't think Turkey has a full CU tho. I'd have to check. I think its a trade agreement rather than a customs union. Its very much a second best to the CU as it only covers some stuff not everything
the CU - not without FOM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union%E2%80%93Turkey_Customs_Union
Miolgrips -what does ruling out any rapprochment mean then? Starmer is now a hard brexiteer. He has ruled out FOM, CU, SM. thats the very definition of a hard brexit
kelvin
Full Member
Baby steps for the first term of having Conservatives on opposition benches (if that happens)…– a new veterinary agreement across all Ireland, all UK, and our continental neighbours
– guarantee that mainland UK will not reduce food standards for imports below EU/EEA levels
– mutual recognition of professional qualifications across as many sectors as possible
– return to full Horizon Europe research cooperation (and funding)
– Erasmus+ participationSnip....
This is more or less where I am really.
I'd love Labour to stand on another referendum on the EU but that's just fantasy at the moment and might even jeopardise them winning the next election. Don't underestimate how many voters (even remainers) are sick of the whole mess and are not ready for another divisive and toxic referendum.
Labour (or a Lib Lab pact) *MUST* win the next election. As much as I hate Brexit even overturning that is secondary to getting the Tories out.
I am terrified of where another full term of a Tory government would leave us.
We're dancing around and then getting to the heart of our democracy here. I'll be almost certainly getting on the bus with no wheels and and engine in bits, despite my 'pro' Labour protestations......
CON / 26,317
LIB / 22,980
LAB / 4,515
IND / 4,356
I mention IND because the existing CON candidate resigned the whip as she couldn't support a No Deal exit and stood as an IND and to some extent split the vote. How big the true CON majority is might therefore be a bit higher than the 3 and a bit K the numbers say.
Hopeful though it will be a blue loss.
In your constituency then Jonv lib dem is the obvious vote.
He has ruled out FOM, CU, SM. thats the very definition of a hard brexit
Show me a link? 6 months ago the Guardian reported this:
"Keir Starmer has thrown Labour back into the Brexit debate by ruling out any return to the single market or customs union, but arguing he could remove trade and travel barriers as prime minister because the EU would trust him."
So no to SM/CU but yes to other softening of Brexit and reducing trade barriers. Which is what I said.
Also this:
"But the Labour leader argued that the big questions over EU membership, notably over the single market, customs union and free movement of people, were “arguments of the past”, and could not be revisited."
That does not mean he is personally a Brexiteer, but that he has to play the hand he's been dealt. I think the idea that anyone could gallop in on a white horse and transform the social landscape of the country is a bit of a stretch. It's far more complex than you seem to think.
Could you tell me where I can find the stats for my constituency online please bud?
I'm likely in the same boat, a Libdem candidate likely to stand the biggest chance of ousting the Tory we currently have.
I got those off Wikipedia by googling "guildford general election vote"
A Swiss deal simply wouldn’t work for Britain. We’ll have a stronger trading relationship and we’ll reduce red tape for British business – but freedom of movement is a red line for me. It was part of the deal of being in the EU but since we left I’ve been clear it won’t come back under my government.”
Direct quote from Starmer
without FOM there is no CU or SM
without those things there is no significant reduction in barriers to trade possible
ruling out FOM CU and SM is the definition of a hard brexit. Starmer now supports a hard brexit. His idea that he can do anything significant about trade barriers while sticking to his hard brexit is "cakism" its not going to happen
a bloody difficult question
It really isn't. There are two choices and one of those is the Tories. Labour appear to have more of the policies that appeal to me.
wow, that wasn't hard, might even have time for a brew.
without FOM there is no CU or SM
without those things there is no significant reduction in barriers to trade possible
No? You don't think any kind of regulatory alignment would help? You don't think that a better trade deal could be struck? That goes against what I've read previously.
Any softening of brexit requires FOM and Starmer has ruled it out. so hard brexit is all thats left
It's all timescales really. current PMs or would be PMs can't suggest they'd even consider a revised EU deal that includes FOM, certainly not in the next couple of years; the Sun/DM would have a field day and that candidate has immediately binned their election chances.
I wouldn't rule out a bit of a "Bait 'N' Switch" to the extent that negotiations might get quietly re-opened, but it all depends on how strong a (presumed SKS led) Government are domestically at the time and they'd want to be well into their term, having promised not to visit the idea during the run up to the GE, but it's not like the electorate have a short memory or PMs occasionally do U-Turns is it 😉
Any renegotiation is well beyond the next GE, probably no earlier than Mid-late 2027? Assuming a Labour Gov, forget it if Rishi pulls a win out of his arse.
We will not re-join the EU, at least not in anything like the short to medium term. We may yet get some of the other benefits if we negotiate nicely for them, and maybe we won’t have to give up too much to get them. But right now that has to be pragmatically weighed against the disruption that re-opening all those debates has as well. You point to his saying he would not support re-joining as it has no economic benefit – the actual statement was ‘at this stage’.
Is unfortunately the pragmatic answer.
No Government could currently steer the UK back towards the EU (all regions and/or nations considered) unless and until the majority population are willing to endorse that action in another referendum. For at least another decade I can't see any presiding party or opposition with any ambition of taking power countenancing such a vote; The public mood and opinions around the topic are just too unpredictable, you can't trust the polls around it.
TBH going back into the EU before 2030 is (unfortunately) a fantasy. the only thin the next 2 or 3 PMs can work on is our relationship with the EU and maybe opening up some (badly needed) CU/SM access which, I think, even the hardest of Brexiteers would recognise the need for...
Starmer now supports a hard brexit.
Given that most of us are reading statements from the labour party filled with caveats and "what ifs" and "maybes" I think you're on your own thinking that Starmer wants the current situation to continue. Only yesterday on Sky on Sunday he was asking questions like "FOM has ended, what will we replace it with?" in response to questions over the future. He also reflected that the "Take Back Control" message was a very powerful one, which was (regardless of your thoughts on the Conservatives) appealed to a great many voters.
No? You don’t think any kind of regulatory alignment would help? You don’t think that a better trade deal could be struck?
Not significantly no.
Can yo explain how it would be? Any links?
Edit - look at the NI protocol which is as the EU made clear a very special case where they have eased barriers to trade hugely ( and that the EU have made clear would not be extended to the rest of the UK) and significant barriers to trade still exist.
Nickc - no caveats in that quote.
Any links?
I listed a few closer cooperation agreements we need, and I’m pretty sure you know enough to see the benefits that each might bring individually… and more importantly how they could be used to regain trust in the UK in other European countries… and also could domestically help move the conversation towards cooperation with our neighbours being practical and mutually beneficial rather than about treachery and anti-democratic back sliding. I collected them from statements made by Labour front benchers, including Starmer, so would hope to so some or all of them in their next election manifesto.
Yes. Fiddling around the edges. that sort of thing would remove some of the edge issues. Its nowhere near tarrif or friction free trade
no caveats in that quote.
Sure, but it's only one quote. You can find others that are not so clear cut. It's Labour who are looking like they will be in power in a couple of years and you can find "ifs" and "buts" from all the party front bench when they talk about trade and FOM. It's only seems to be you who's determined that Labour's most remainer politician is suddenly more Brexity than David Frost.
Yes. Fiddling around the edges
That's probably the very best we're going to get right now
Fiddling around the edges. that sort of thing would remove some of the edge issues. Its nowhere near tarrif or friction free trade
It’s going to be slow and incremental. And was always going to be. It is why so many of us wanted a “measure twice, cut once” vote before we left. It may have only taken 4 years to leave, but it would take decades to rejoin, if we ever did, and 10+ years to get anywhere significant that’s even approaching a Norway or Swiss position. The next five years will be like tuning an ocean liner around… the fantasy of a quick fix to Brexit isn’t a lie worth holding out for at the next election. We are aware the situation is different once you throw Scottish independence into the mix… but that also is a long long journey… both gaining independence and rejoining the SM/CU without rUK. There is no “undoing the damage of Brexit” right now, there is only stopping further divergence and beginning the long slow process of repairing relationships and gaining trust abroad and at home.
Its the position he has adopted and I like to go on what is said
To me a lot of you are engaging in wishful thinking. Its a bit like kremlinology of old " if they said this they must mean that"
labour are being very clever at saying things that allow folk to put their own ideas into what is said
me I prefer to accept they say what they mean and starmer has ruled out doing anything significant at all.
I sort of understand where you are coming from in that you hope he will change course once in power. to me he has backed himself into a corner and will not.
HIs stance of no FOM. no CU,no SM is a hard brexit stance. You cannot deny that
the fantasy of a quick fix to Brexit isn’t a lie worth holding out for.
whereas the lies of "no benefit to rejoin" and "make brexit work" are?
Its nowhere near tarrif or friction free trade
That ship sailed three years ago and won't be back any time soon. If ever.
The morons won.
Thoroughly depressing, but there you go....
whereas the lies of “no benefit to rejoin” and “make brexit work” are?
A possible government campaigning for rejoin at this stage probably would have an economic cost for the UK. I think once we’d rejoined we’d be better off, and fast, but the run up to that would cost us as investment would be delayed awaiting the outcome of negotiations and the removing of barriers, and that wouldn’t be over quickly. Have you got a link to the whole interview or speech the “no benefit” quote comes from?
me I prefer to accept they say what they mean
These are politicians we're talking about. If their lips are moving, they're lying. If you think you can take them absolutely at their word (and indeed, there are enough 'at this stage' caveats in there that their word was written with a pencil with a rubber on the other end) then you're wired to the ****ing moon.
I am terrified of where another full term of a Tory government would leave us.
Poor folk will be destitute and even the middle class will be struggling if they have a career/life event.
But hey, "will of the people" and a FPTP electoral system.
Oh, and don't get ill.
You have to remember that these Brexiteers are Disaster Capitalist wreckers. All the time they've been doing this they've been making sure it's essentially irreversible
They pretty much managed it too
So rather than fighting the last war and moaning about the fact that we've now left the EU, then banging on about rejoining (which isn't going to happen) we'd be better off trying to fight what they plan to do next
And what they plan to do next is to revoke all retained EU laws by the end of this year. So if you think Brexit has been damaging up to now, you ain't seen nothing yet.
They're about to get down to the nitty gritty of what Brexit was all about... tearing up workers rights, environmental controls and pretty much any restriction's on finance or corporations
It may have only taken 4 years to leave, but it would take decades to rejoin, if we ever did, and 10+ years to get anywhere significant that’s even approaching a Norway or Swiss position. The next five years will be like tuning an ocean liner around…
Im not sure it will take that long, the economic pain of leaving isnt going to get better, probably worse, even when inflation comes down, from housing, to NHS, to social care, to schools, to trains to potholes & bin collections, Brexit was supposed to make the UK a better place, it hasnt.
Brexit as promised was undeliverable a lot of those promises were economic, including the benefits to the NHS.... people can see very clearly that those promises were lies
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/two-years-on-a-decline-in-the-popularity-of-brexit/
Its the position he has adopted and I like to go on what is said
To me a lot of you are engaging in wishful thinking. Its a bit like kremlinology of old ” if they said this they must mean that”
labour are being very clever at saying things that allow folk to put their own ideas into what is said
me I prefer to accept they say what they mean and starmer has ruled out doing anything significant at all.
I sort of understand where you are coming from in that you hope he will change course once in power. to me he has backed himself into a corner and will not.
His stance of no FOM. no CU,no SM is a hard brexit stance. You cannot deny that
Yep, Labour is a Centrist party cutting their cloth to appeal to (or at least not repel) "Middleaged Mortgage Man" or whatever the focus group came up with.
If that's a bit weak for you don't vote for them, pragmatically I'm on the "anyone but another Tory PM" band waggon, but not deaf to the criticisms of SKS flavoured Labour.
Realistically come 2025 you're going to have a Centrist party in charge, the only real question you'll be asked at the GE is "how far Right of centre would you like your next government?"
I'm hoping SKS is doing what politicians do, and telling a few porkies which, let's be frank, isn't unheard of in recent years.
My own Estimation is that Labour sit closer to the centre ground still (probably not to the left of it), But I think anyone voting Labour will have to acknowledge it's still a gamble.
@cookeaa yes exactly that.
Would we like more Torying, or something mildly less like sticking a knife in our own gut?
Sad, but, I don't see Labour addressing the elephant this coming term, in any meaningful way. Perhaps they will conduct some discreet discussions to see where the land lies w.r.t. a customs union and free trade, but I'm not holding my breath.
me I prefer to accept they say what they mean
Then honestly you have missed the entire core principle of politics.
That's politics, as distinct from government.
EDIT I don't mean that politicians are all mendacious liars. They aren't. What I mean is that as a politician, everything you say has to be weaponised to further the aim of getting people to vote for you. Political discussion isn't rational debate, unfortunately, it's a war of words. You want to say things that can be construed as positive by as many people as possible. Hence this 'make Brexit work' slogan, but also the previous Tory slogans which were vague enough to function like that.
I'm not a salesman, but I do operate in a commercial environment, so I put a lot of effort into wording things carefully to give the right impression whilst still being technically correct, so I have a small amount of insight into this.
theotherjonv
Full Member
I got those off Wikipedia by googling “guildford general election vote”
Cheers, I'll do the same!
I think if the leader of a party says unequivocally no return to any sort of close relationship with the EU by carefully ruling out all the measures that any close relationship would entail and doing so on many occasions then they are not going to take us anywhere close to the EU
I've never known any politician take a strong stance on something so fundamental and so important and then totally reverse it once elected
anyone got any examples of a u turn so fundamental?
I think if the leader of a party says unequivocally no return to any sort of close relationship with the EU by carefully ruling out all the measures that any close relationship would entail and doing so on many occasions then they are not going to take us anywhere close to the EU
He specifically hasn't done that thought.
There is more to EU relations than CU and SM.
The job of every remainer in politics is to move us slowly back towards the EU, inch by inch. He has to take that stand now, but once that's normalised, another govt will make another move based on evidence, and so on. Long game.
I'm not saying he's going to pile straight into the EU once elected. He's going to soften Brexit a little bit. And then another govt would soften it a bit more, and so on.
So what is the closer relationship that is any significant change we can have without european court jurisdiction, FOM CU and SM?
Starmer has ruled out all the measures needed for any sort of a close relationship
Or do you think the EU is going to allow cakism
Just seen your edit - what a catastrophically low aim. 10 years to even get a bit closer?
I’ve listed some starters. Your impatience is understandable. We will not be joining the SM, or CU, or FoM between the next two elections, whoever wins the first one. And, as it happens, I think that would also be true if Labour were saying the opposite. They couldn’t deliver that even if it was in their manifesto and formed a government with that promise ringing in voters’ ears.
Starters that will make very little real difference. My god this is depressing. In ten years time I won't be living in the UK. I'll either be living in an independent Scotland in the EU or in the netherlands if there is really no chance of the UK even having a meaningful trading relationship with the EU
My concern with the Labour position is time, the current situation, re public services etc will take well over a parliamentary term to begin to fix. Come the GE in 2030ish things really won't be much better. So why vote Labour if nothing gets better?
Labour simply saying they aren't the tories really isn't a strategy if they can't then offer any benefits.
