Rejoining is not happening - simple as that - because to even say so would just cause yet more years of political and economic chaos
So as regards the EU we have a choice of two things at the next general election:
A party in government that, due to the need to satisfy a bunch of headbangers on its own backbenches and a fear of Farage, wants a relationship with the EU that is openly confrontational and abrasive, no matter how destructive this is economically
A party in government who's natural instincts will be to dump the war-like rhetoric and quietly establish a far more co-operative relationship with our nearest trading partners and will be prepared to compromise to do so, due to not being locked into an idealogical dead end
Them's the two options. Anything else is just wishful thinking
Anything else is just wishful thinking
The process of rejoining would be as convoluted as us leaving, and I'd expect various EU member states to be keen on the veto. And all the while, our economy continues to bleed out.
Brexit-in-name-only is the best we can hope for, as we need to get into a customs union type arrangement as soon as possible.
In England
Not that its true anyway.
So as regards the EU you have a choice of one thing at the next general election: tory or tory lite both anti immigration, anti FOM and anti EU as well as pro priivitisation and - the level of wishful thinking is astonishing. Labour are now in favour of a hard brexit.
Are you suggesting that the city of London doesn’t deal mostly with pounds sterling?
Define "city of London" since it covers a multitude of sins and different businesses.
Given its international nature though I would guess it makes up only a subset eg at least until recently the city did more Euro trading than any city in the Euro zone did and has at times outtraded New York in dollars.
@tjagain forgive my ignorance but do these parties stand a chance of being elected where you vote?
Yes. between then they have 50% of the vote the SNP 40 odd % SNP have 45ish ( IIRC) of the scots seats and are the third largest party at westminster and there is no sign of their vote share dropping.
My seat is a safe pro EU party seat. Its a safe SNP seat
Brexit-in-name-only is the best we can hope for, as we need to get into a customs union type arrangement as soon as possible.
And the starting point is to actually acknowledge it was a mistake whilst also acknowledging that quite a few people had been failed hence why they voted for brexit.
Start off by pointing out that what was promised at the time and hence what people voted for is very different to what was delivered to them.
The normalising of the hard right press line that we should forget about what they helped create doesnt really give confidence in what else will be normalised.
Molgrips. Starmer has ruled out any real move towards the EU. Read his speeches. His latest big set piece said so explicitly
Brexit-in-name-only is the best we can hope for, as we need to get into a customs union type arrangement as soon as possible.
Cartegorically ruled out by Starmer
Here's the thing - Brexit has divided the country & still does. Labour have to fight the press, they are not on their side. As soon as Labour say we want to re-join the press would have an absolute field day about them being non-democratic scumbags.
Here's the thing, I watched a Labour MP talking to Laura K yesterday morning about a possible smoking ban & banning the sale of cigarettes. The MP answered well with measured responses & said nothing is set in stone, but we're looking at all the options & seeing what happens in New Zealand.
Later on that day on Facebook CornwallLive had a post up - saying Labour are going to ban cigarettes.
And the starting point is to actually acknowledge it was a mistake
The jury is still out on that. We've only been out two years and in that time we were dealing with a global pandemic and the potential collapse of the economy. Whether you support brexit or are against it, you simply cannot make the claim that we know it was a mistake. We won't know that for another 5-10 years. At the very least we need to see what happens under a different government with different policies.
Where does the city get it’s money from?
Mostly not the bank of England nor from pound based investors.
It would take as a minimum a Norway type deal to get the lost financial passporting rights back.
Oh come off it Dazh 🙂
Its caused huge losses to the UK economy, huge loss of tax take, caused further shortages of NHS staff, loss of industry, losses of economic activity thru London in financial services
Now tell me how any of the obvious damage can be reversed without rejoin in some form
But you also can't escape the fact that a majority of folks voted to leave. We either abide by a democratic decision or we don't. People were asked, they voted. End.
And a great many of the folks who voted that way are now thinking of voting Labour. Labour have a huge poll lead with their stance of "not rejoining the EU" so I guess they're pretty much on the money.
You're missing the point Uncle Jezza
You're expressing things as you (and a lot of us) see it. But a lot of people aren't noticing that much and an awful lot of people believe the rhetoric about 'sovrinty' and sending for'ners home and don't see the link between this and for example NHS staffing, or they think the latter was worth it for the former
I'm constantly amazed by how little the polls have moved on the issue of Brexit since the referendum.
rejoin in some form
What do you mean rejoin in some form? It's rejoin, OR it's softening of Brexit.
The jury is still out on that. We’ve only been out two years and in that time we were dealing with a global pandemic and the potential collapse of the economy. Whether you support brexit or are against it, you simply cannot make the claim that we know it was a mistake. We won’t know that for another 5-10 years. At the very least we need to see what happens under a different government with different policies.
I know Brexiteers don't really do math, but it's 3 years since we formally left and 6.5 years since the vote and the "agreement" to leave.
Since that time the exchange rate to the dollar has dropped 20% and is currently at almost the worst level since 1985. As $$ are used to set the price for almost everything, we're ALL far worse off. Less talent wants to come here as salaries are lower.
The staffing crisis in the NHS and other industries is now endemic as is the dramatic drop-off in exports, DESPITE the low £££. Brexit is an abject failure. Nothing you can do in 2-5 years will fix this cluster ****. No new government can FIX this. Turkeys voted for Christmas and the bird is now well and truly dead, roasted, eaten and shat back out.
The polls have moved hugely to the point there is now a significant majority for rejoin from what I have seen.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-referendum-rejoin-eu-b2250813.html
What do you mean rejoin in some form? It’s rejoin, OR it’s softening of Brexit.
Rejoin in some form. Norway type deal, Switzerland type deal . all those involve FOM and as such categorically ruled out by Starmer
There is no softening of brexit without FOM. NO FOM = hard brexit
Its caused huge losses to the UK economy, huge loss of tax take, caused further shortages of NHS staff, loss of industry, losses of economic activity thru London in financial services
All of those things can be solved by policies different to those being pursued by the current UK govt. Whether a labour govt will be bold enough and radical enough to implement those policies is an open question, but it is possible. It doesn't even need to be that radical. Basically use the power of the govt to finance and invest in the UK economy and its people. We are a highly developed country of nearly 70M people with one of the largest economies in the world (even after brexit). It shouldn't be beyond us to solve the problems you list above with a bit of creativity, innovation and political will. If after the next labour government nothing has improved then fine, lets talk about other options, but until then no one who voted for brexit is going to think rejoining the EU is a good idea.
You're living in cloud cuckooland
Didn't Dave call the referendum as all the polls showed a clear majority for remain, so it'd just be a formality then he could get back to business as usual?
That went well, didn't it?
From that article you posted:
SUPPORT for rejoining the EU leads support for Brexit by nine percentage points, a poll has suggested.
The survey is the latest in a long line which shows the British public has been turning against the idea of Brexit as food costs, immigration numbers, inflation, and energy bills all skyrocket.
However, the new polling also suggested that, with some of the conditions of rejoining the EU spelled out, support for it falls.
So if we had another referendum tomorrow, we'd just get loads more of this...
and we'd have a replay of last time, fuelling even more division
*sits back and awaits being labeled a Brexiteer*
But you also can’t escape the fact that a majority of folks voted to leave.
But over 4 million of the population that could vote in 2016 are dead and not quite as many new voters have joined the electorate which has shifted the balance to pro-EU. At some point you have to say it was a democratic decision then which wouldn't be reapeated now and should no longer influence current political decisions. As it was it was seriously flawed as announced as advisory and without any of the safeguards of a proper referendum.
I don't think people would be duped twice, Binners, polls say people have learned from their mistakes, or died.
What are those policies then Dazh?
My view is that I’m more likely to get the sorts of policies that i want to see enacted if I vote Labour than if I vote Tory. In the system we have those are my choices. End of discussion.
That's fair enough and I'm not arguing against that in a general sense, my point is more about the specifics of Brexit.
But you also can’t escape the fact that a majority of folks voted to leave. We either abide by a democratic decision or we don’t. People were asked, they voted. End.
People were asked if we wanted to join the EC, they voted. End. Your statement also ignores the fact that Brexit meant many different things to many different people. I'd bet there is a constant majority who never got what they thought they were voying for.
Rejoining would mean having to accede to all the requirements of a new membership and lose the controls that we previously had.
Well, yes. We all know that. But I wasn't even talking about specifically rejoining, what I said was
How exactly does “no economic case for rejoining” and “making brexit work” get us anywhere?
Now, there's a whole lot of land between rejoining and the Brexit we have but that doesn't seem to be getting a look in hence my analogy of the bus being more of a static feature!
A policy of full join would be electoral suicide – loss of a central bank, currency, etc….is just too unpalatable.
If people think brexit was a bad idea, giving up the pound would much, much worse. For that reason alone we will never rejoin the EU, and nor should we.
As pointed out that's bollocks, Sweden and Denmark are the first two of many to spring to mind.
The ‘Make Brexit Work’ slogan is very obviously sop
Unless someone says that explicitly then I'm afraid that's very much wishful thinking on your part. If Trump, May, BoJo and Truss have taught me anythingt it's that there will be no bait and switch, it really is as bad as it says on the tin. That's the same wishful thinking that was being fed to us when we were told we couldn't possibly have a hard Brexit. That Labour would not support a disorganised Brexit, at least not until JC demanded May enact Article 30 ASAP.
I don’t think people would be duped twice, Binners, polls say people have learned from their mistakes, or died.
Thats as maybe, but no political party would presently get elected in the UK on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Not a chance!
We have to deal with the world as it is, not with how we'd like it to be. The labour party seems to get this and that a commitment to rejoin the EU would be electoral suicide and could possibly even eclipse the beardy allotment-dweller as the greatest gift the Tory party could ever receive
Right now getting a labour government in is the priority. In fact it is essential for this country
What do you mean rejoin in some form?
I and others have explained it multiple times on multiple threads now.
Making Brexit work is going to involve giving up Sovereignty. The EFTA countries, CEFTA countries, Turkey, Switzerland have all given up some sovereignty in order to have closer ties with the EU.
Making Brexit work means giving up sovereignty.
Once you've given up sovereignty you have rejoined. The EFTA countries are not in the EU but to all intents and purposes they ARE in it. At the same time, countries that are full EU members have retained some sovereignty (Denmark and Sweden not adopting the Euro, for example) but have given up more to be full members.
You can rejoin as a full member. You can rejoin as a partial member. It doesn't matter because making Brexit work means rejoining in some form and that means giving up sovereignty. Once you've given up sovereignty, as we've been told many times, it's no longer Brexit.
Binners. You conveniently omit that even when the aspects of the EU that the UK public lest like are included its still a clear majority for rejoin and we would not have to accept Schengen or the Euro
Now ask yourself if labour was pro EU how much further that poll would be in favour of joining?
and we would not have to accept Schengen or the Euro
Says who? You have absolutely no idea what criteria would be demanded to rejoin. I'd say both of those things would be non-negotiable
Now ask yourself if labour was pro EU how much further that poll would be in favour of joining?
So you'd need another referendum?
Didn't Labour stand with that as a manifesto pledge last time out? That went well, didn't it?
Like I said: you're living in a fantasy world
but it’s 3 years since we formally left
It's only two years since the end of the transition period when our membership of the single market and customs union ended.
we’re ALL far worse off
Are we? My salary has increased above inflation since we voted to leave the EU, my job is more secure than it was in 2016, my pension has grown and my house has nearly doubled in value. Brexit has had very little effect on my finances, and I doubt I'm a special case. Following 2016 I actually thought I'd probably get made redundant and I also liquidated a lot of investments for fear of a stockmarket crash. I was completely wrong on both counts. In fact had I kept the money I took out of equities where it was I would have been much better off. The only money I've lost due to brexit was through my own actions driven by the fear of what might happen post-2016.
People were asked if we wanted to join the EC, they voted. End
So that's what 40 years between votes then? "Ze beatings will continue until morale improves"
I’d bet there is a constant majority who never got what they thought they were voying for.
Tough, We have to assume that everyone had access the same information, that everyone was as fully informed as they wanted to be.
Thats as maybe, but no political party would presently get elected in the UK on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Not a chance!
That's as maybe, 😉 but with a Norway or Swiss deal as the objective the support for rejoin says they would stand a very good chance of getting elected.
The points at which potential rejoin voters lose enthusiasm for the EU, mainly Euro currency aren't present in the Norway or Swiss arangements.
I agree that rejoining is decades away but a Swiss or Norway deal is a change of government away if the Labour party has it as policy.
Now ask yourself if labour was pro EU how much further that poll would be in favour of joining?
He'd be guessing, just like you are.
Once the difference in GDPs between UK and the EU/US starts to look even more obvious, we'll be going back to the SM/CU BRINO options. This was, after all, the original proposal from Leave (well some of them). Economics will drive decision making and BRINO is probably what most people had in mind when they voted. That and immigration. Clearly they didn't vote on economic grounds!
https://fullfact.org/europe/what-was-promised-about-customs-union-referendum/
Less than 10 years and we'll be Norway without the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Are we?
Lucky you. It's been an unmitigated disaster for my Son who will have a license to fly in Europe but no right to work there. The restitution of this anomaly is not cheap and the regulatory pathways are still completely undecided. Other regulated industries are in the same position.
Thats as maybe, but no political party would presently get elected in the UK on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Not a chance!
Another reason why Scotland is totally out of step with England (and in electoral terms, the UK), because our Govt was elected in 2019 on a manifesto commitment to (re)join the EU.
Less than 10 years and we’ll be Norway without the Sovereign Wealth Fund
This is my expectation.
Another reason why Scotland is totally out of step with England (and in electoral terms, the UK), because our Govt was elected in 2019 on a manifesto commitment to (re)join the EU.
The metropolitan areas of England were and are as pro-EU as Scotland, so we are just as out-of-step with the rest of England as you.
Unfortunately the majority of the people in the entire UK wanted to leave the EU. We live in a democracy, so they got there way.
I absolutely despaired in the decision. I thought it was utter and complete madness then and I still do now. I have felt completely disenfranchised and unrepresented politically for 6 years now
What does BRINO mean? Google points to an American actor who died young.
Thats as maybe, but no political party would presently get elected in the UK on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Not a chance!
SNP?
Once again you mean england not the UK and even then I disagree
TJ - You may have a choice in Scotland - there's no choice in England. Only the Lib Dems are offering any sort of pro re-join EU stance and that's woolly at best.
You don't want the UK to exist in it's current form anyway so you should be promoting the Labour party as there's zero chance in the forseeable future of getting an independence vote under conservative rule.
Scotland is still part of the UK for the time being and the forceable future, whether you like it or not.
100% of our household are pro-EU. Perhaps I should declare us an independent nation state and approach Brussels about membership of the EU?
The referendum was UK-wide. It was stupidly flawed and should never ever have happened but we are where we are and for the time being we're all going to have to suck it up and try and elect a Westminster government that will at least limit the damage
Less than 10 years and we’ll be Norway without the Sovereign Wealth Fund
Agreed… although I expect it’ll be ten years minimum… more than two UK election cycles. It’ll take more than one before we start down that route, and once we do it’ll take another for us to get close to the point of implementing that, and another vote (general election) to confirm it before it happens. Every chance it’ll take longer than two cycles if the Tories manage to make it an election issue again at the next two elections in the way Johnson did at the last (don’t assume that they can’t do so in the short term).
As for the Sovereign Wealth Fund bit… there is every chance for the UK (or Indy Scotland) to have a state making and using money from renewables as we decarbonise over the next 25 years… and that can and should happen whatever our relationship with the EU… although easier to be earning the money as part of the European market for energy.
A policy of full join would be electoral suicide – loss of a central bank, currency, etc….is just too unpalatable.
As pointed out that’s bollocks, Sweden and Denmark are the first two of many to spring to mind.
I didn't say it would be economic suicide, I said electoral.
To stand on a rejoin the EU ticket means agreeing to the Copenhagen criteria. That means losing the pound. Whether that is economically desirable, survivable, whatever - electorally right now it would be suicidal.
DK and SWE are irrelevant, they haven't had to give up their currencies because they were already in with concessions to them keeping it. Just as we had, and threw away.
you should be promoting the Labour party as there’s zero chance in the forseeable future of getting an independence vote under conservative rule.
There's zero chance under Labour. Scotland had a referendum in 2014, and they voted no by some margin. There's about as much chance of another independence referendum as there is of rejoining the EU.
There’s zero chance under Labour. Scotland had a referendum in 2014, and they voted no by some margin. There’s about as much chance of another independence referendum as there is of rejoining the EU.
Douglas Ross? Shouldn't you be practicing running up and down a touchline somewhere.
Scotland is still part of the UK for the time being and the forceable future, whether you like it or not.
Freudian slip or just quoting Tory policy?
BRexit In Name Only - BRINO
